S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Post-FOMC Positive Gamma, Buy-The-Dip & The 7205 Squeeze Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 30th, breaking down the 7200.75 upside pivot, the 7155.50 buy-the-dip support, and the VIX 17.48 - 17.44 reaction floor.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, April 30th, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan yesterday. We essentially caught all three longs on the way down, and every single one paid well over 10 to 15 points. The morning long off the 7155.50 midpoint pivot played for 20 points, the sweep of the overnight low and yesterday’s low paid roughly 15 points, and then the amazing 4-Hour level we have eyed for about a week at 7132.00 ultimately paid for 70 points, taking us all the way up into our massive gamma flip resistance at 7200.00.
Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of this incredible trade plan yesterday. It was truly miraculous, especially given the fact that it was FOMC and our levels still played perfectly. That is a testament to our process, our system, and the edge we continue to build every single day.
As we come into today, we have a very interesting predicament. The overnight high is resting right at 7200.00, which was our massive resistance area yesterday, and yesterday’s low / overnight low is sitting around 7134.00, which is our major daily pivot that we absolutely had to hold to keep upside momentum alive. Last night, price moved from 7132.00 all the way to 7200.00, reached 7200.00 twice, came all the way back down to test 7132.00 again, held support, and then launched all the way back into 7200.00 this morning. We are sitting less than 20 points away from the all-time high on ES, and with relative volume elevated, we are looking for a breakout in one direction or the other.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag news hits at 8:30 AM Eastern premarket with Advanced GDP, Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, Advanced GDP Price Index, and Unemployment Claims. We also come in post-FOMC, where the Fed held rates steady, and after huge tech earnings yesterday post-close across Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta.
Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at 66%. That means we have active participation, and even though the expected range has already been completed overnight, the relative-volume calculation gives us approximately 48 points of potential extension above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Range: Expected range is 68 points, and we have already moved 68 points in the overnight session. Price has also traversed roughly 75 points back and forth two separate times, making this an extremely healthy overnight range heading into the cash session.
Gamma: We have moved from Negative Gamma back into Positive Gamma territory, with the gamma flip now well underneath us at 7100.00. Dealers are now hedging back to the upside, and now that the FOMC and earnings risk has passed, that creates a real buy-the-dip backdrop.
Trend: We are up on the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour timeframes. This is a buy-the-dip moment until proven otherwise. Above 7200.00 and essentially 7205.00, we can squeeze toward the Globex all-time high at 7223.25; underneath 7132.00, things get rough fast.
🧠 Current Market Context
Positive Gamma Buy-The-Dip Into All-Time Highs
We are still very much pointed in the upside direction. The overnight price action moved roughly 75 points, continued to hold the major support at 7132.00, and launched us back above 7200.00 at the time of this writing. We are sitting directly at the very significant 7200.75 4-Hour level, which already tested last night and played for well over 75 points as price came all the way back down. That means the liquidity at this level has already been tapped, and a push higher from here is absolutely plausible.
The bigger structural shift is the gamma regime. The gamma flip has moved from being a major resistance battle at 7200.00 back down to 7100.00, putting us back in Positive Gamma territory. That tells us dealers are hedging to the upside now that volatility and event risk have come out of the market. Because we are up on the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour timeframes, I am not looking to blindly short resistance. I want to use these resistance levels as long targets, and I want to buy pullbacks into 4-Hour and Daily support when the trigger confirms.
