S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Post-Squeeze Drift & The 6633 Line in the Sand
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 24th, breaking down the 6633.25 midpoint pivot, the 6581.50 daily floor, and the VIX 24.70 above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, March 24th, and we come off an absolutely incredible day yesterday. Last week we called the sweep play — sweep and squeeze once we reclaimed our 6525.00 swing low — and that is exactly what happened yesterday, paying over 250 points pre-market. What an incredible call days in advance. This proved to be one of the most fruitful and extreme pushes we’ve seen in a short period of time all year. This is the kind of quality you get from pre-planning your trades and understanding market mechanics. Congratulations to all those who took advantage — there were a ton of people who reaped massive rewards on this move.
As we come into the day, price is still drifting sideways as we’ve been able to hold support after yesterday’s massive push up. The overnight session has given us a range of 71 points so far, and we are currently flirting with some very important levels. Price pushed down and held our very significant Daily at 6581.50 last night — the lower end of our support — only to traverse right back up into our major pivot area at 6633.25. However, we are failing to push above this level, and it is going to be our line in the sand today.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag news at 9:45 AM ET — Flash Manufacturing PMI. This will create volatility fifteen minutes after the open. Be prepared for intraday shakes around this release.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -14.3%. This is not out of the ordinary and will more than likely stabilize as we get closer to the red tag news event. Using our relative calculation, we have approximately 55 points left above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 136 points. We have already moved 71 points in the overnight session. Taking relative volume into account, we have approximately 55 points left in the tank for a move above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Negative Gamma is located well above 6900, meaning dealers are still continuing to hedge to the downside. This doesn’t mean price can’t go up, but it means squeezes can potentially be imminent and violent. Be prepared for action in both directions.
Trend: Downside lean. We have not gained on the Daily, Weekly, or 4-Hour time frame. We are still very much pointing to the downside. However, price could move much higher and still remain in a downward bias, as our high time frame positioning right now still points us to the downside regardless of intraday moves.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Post-Squeeze Drift & Double Value Area Acceptance
We are currently drifting sideways after yesterday’s massive 250-point squeeze off the 6525.00 swing low. Price is sitting directly below our significant 6633.25 Daily and 6627.00 Weekly — our double value area lows that have been keeping the lid on things overnight. These two levels represent our midpoint pivot and line in the sand for the day. Below this area, we remain suppressed. If they can accept value back above 6633.25, we will continue this drift higher and potentially move all the way into 6749.25 or higher. However, as long as we remain below these double value area lows, we continue to be range-bound.
