S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Positive Gamma Grind & The 7509 Imbalance Target
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 14th, breaking down the 7509.75 bullish imbalance target, the 7477.50 4-Hour barometer, and the 17.44 - 17.48 VIX reaction floor.
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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, May 14th, and we come off another ridiculous day in the trade plan. It was an absolutely phenomenal day as we called not only the premarket pop from 7420.00, but also the low of the day at 7402.00 - 7399.25, which did exactly what we expected and took us to all-time highs yesterday.
That trade sent us all the way up to close at the highs for well over 90 points of long-side opportunity, only to continue traversing higher in the overnight session. We are now up well over 100 points from that entry as we continue to push and look for the bullish imbalance target at 7509.75. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of this incredible trade. It paid serious dividends and followed the trade plan exactly as we expected.
As we come into this morning, we have been drifting higher in the overnight session, accepting the value from yesterday’s push to all-time highs. Price has been drifting sideways around 7475.00 all night and continues to grind higher as we seek 7509.75. At the time of this writing, ES is up roughly 26 points in the overnight session with an extremely tight range of 25.50 points.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have Red Tag news at 8:30 AM Eastern with core retail sales and unemployment claims. These are large numbers, especially after yesterday’s inflation data, and they can be a major catalyst for today’s session.
Volume: Relative Volume is extremely low at negative 22%, which can mute the range and support a slow, grindy Positive Gamma type session.
Range: Expected range is 71 points. We have already moved 25.50 points overnight, leaving approximately 46 points left above or below the overnight high or low. With Relative Volume negative 22%, the adjusted range is closer to 55.50 points, leaving around 30 points of expected extension.
Gamma: We remain in Positive Gamma territory. That supports a lower-volatility, grind-higher environment unless a major level fails or VIX reacts hard from support.
Trend: We are pointed up on every timeframe. We are also extremely overbought, but overbought does not mean short. Until the chart proves otherwise, the mission remains buying the dip and targeting the 7509.75 bullish imbalance.
🧠 Current Market Context
Positive Gamma, All-Time Highs & The Bullish Imbalance Magnet
We are still pushing all-time highs, and the indices remain extremely extended and outside of value. That matters, but it does not mean we should let an opinion override the chart. We know a rotation is due at some point, but we do not know when that rotation will happen. For now, price is still pointed higher, the market is still in Positive Gamma, and we have no structural reason to believe the upside push is finished.
The major target remains the bullish imbalance at 7509.75. We have been talking about that target since the weekend review, and price is now actively pursuing it. Because we are in price discovery, we do not have clean structural resistance above. That means we use the bullish imbalance and Call Walls as profit targets, not areas to randomly short. Above 7509.75, the next major Call Wall targets are 7520.00 and, on a serious extension, 7570.00.
