S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Positive Gamma & The 6961.75 Untested Ceiling
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 14th, breaking down the 6928.00 daily progression pivot, the 6961.75 highest untested leg level, and the VIX 20.78 suppression barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, April 14th, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plans as we called the squeeze after the gap down on Sunday, and it led to a ferocious push up yesterday — giving us almost 150 points to the upside as buyers squeezed intensely after holding support at our 6770s. Price pushed all the way through our significant Monthly at 6857.25, made a lot of people a lot of money yesterday. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the early call-out in advance for the squeeze. Careers were made yesterday. Congratulations.
As we come into the morning, we have essentially established value up here in the evening session, balancing directly above our 6928.00 Daily. We have held this all night long and have actually played this top-down this morning as price sat here and distributed in a sideways fashion — accepting value at the high. This should not be a surprise to us, as generally after a large push in one direction, price needs to accept value before making its continued move. We set an extremely small overnight range of just 25 points, which generally means we will have a fairly large footprint today and will break out of the overnight session from one direction or the other.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag pre-market. We have Core PPI this morning at 8:30 AM, which is guaranteed to give us a shake. Be very mindful of positioning around this release.
Volume: Relative Volume is low today at -43.8%. Given our current environment, this is not unexpected — we are now in positive gamma territory, and the reduced volume reflects that. Our effective remaining range reduces to approximately 50 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 99.5 points. We have only moved 25 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 75 points above or below the overnight high or low. With the negative relative volume, that effective number is closer to 50 points.
Gamma: We are now in Positive Gamma territory. This has not happened in quite some time. Our Gamma flip level sits all the way down at 6885.00, meaning we are clearly inside positive gamma. This is extremely important — dealers are now hedging to the upside and defending support.
Trend: Upside lean, no question about it. We have gained on the Daily and four-hour timeframes and are now in positive gamma territory. We are continuing to push higher as we hold supports on the way up. However, Bulls are not out of the woods yet — we are entering into our major untested resistance area before we clip new all-time highs.
🧠 Current Market Context
Value Acceptance at the Highs & Positive Gamma Shift
We are currently trending up as we have gained on the Daily and four-hour timeframes and are continuing to push higher, holding supports on the way up. Yesterday’s massive 150-point squeeze off the Sunday gap-down support was a statement — and the shift into positive gamma territory for the first time in quite some time is a major structural development. Dealers are now hedging to the upside and will be defending support levels, particularly around the gamma flip at 6885.00.
