S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Payrolls Friday, Price Discovery & The 7772 Break Line
A detailed ES & VIX plan for August 7th, breaking down the 7771/7772 Call Wall-Daily momentum pivot, the 7739.50-7740 POC/Put Wall support, and the VIX 14.95/15.03 floor.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everybody. Today is Friday, August 7th, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan, where we captured the only long of the day — given right in the trade plan title and subtitle as literally “the only one” long. That trade paid well over 20 points. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the one sweet play we had under yesterday’s low that paved the way for an early morning victory, leading Team Vici to profitability once again. It was an easy one-and-done, laid out perfectly for everyone.
As we come into the morning, we are up 17 points at the time of this writing. ES has held firmly all night at yesterday’s lows, sitting sideways and slowly grinding higher, leaving us directly in the middle of yesterday’s overnight range, most of the morning’s range, and most of Wednesday’s range. We are truly right back in the middle of balance, where the players decide whether this value is acceptable — sit sideways momentarily and push higher, or reject it and push lower. This is a critical area to monitor, and with the biggest news of the month on deck, we’re going to be extremely cautious and let the dust settle this morning.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Three major Red Tag events this morning — Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payroll, and the Unemployment Rate. These are the biggest numbers we will have all month; they set the tone for our economy and tell us where we could be heading the rest of the month. It’s not only Friday — which tends to be volatile in general — but these numbers are sure to cause a major shake. Let the dust settle before engaging.
Volume: Relative Volume is insanely low at -46%. With this major news on deck, that’s no surprise — the market has been sitting still all evening as participants wait. In my opinion, this is somewhat of a false reading; based on experience with highly volatile events like this, relative volume will more than likely flatten out today, and we could see all, if not close to all, of our expected range.
Range: Expected range of 92.25 points. We have only moved 31.25 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 61 points in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows — plenty of room for a big move once the news hits.
Gamma: We are in a Positive Gamma environment once again, with our gamma flip level at 7630 — our major breakout level from Tuesday. This is essentially propping the market up in full force right now.
Trend: Up on all timeframes. We are pointed up on both the Daily and the 4-Hour; the 1-Hour is showing cracks, but that is not our controlling timeframe — just keep in mind it looks potentially soft. We are pointed to the upside in every way, shape, or form, and have no reason to believe otherwise. Buy-the-dip mentality. We are not looking for shorts today — we are truly still looking for longs.
🧠 Current Market Context
Price Discovery, Thin Air & The Balance Standoff Near All-Time Highs
We are drifting sideways and accepting value over the past two days, located extremely close to all-time highs and in price discovery mode. This makes for an extremely difficult situation: we are up on all timeframes, making shorts not highly probable — but longs are also difficult, because there is an extreme lack of support below us and very limited resistance above us. We have two potential plays for a long, some minor resistance for a potential short scalp, and ultimately we are looking for a potential new all-time-high target today. Given today’s Red Tag news, these things are certainly possible.
But please don’t get it twisted — just because we are up on all timeframes doesn’t mean we can’t come down. We had a very large inefficiency on Friday’s push up that certainly could use repair, and we could come down quite significantly before we start to lose real support on the Daily or 4-Hour timeframes. That keeps us ultimately bullish and in buy-the-dip mentality, even through a deep pullback. Regardless of how inefficient the market looks below us, we must maintain our discipline and our process. It has not led us astray, and we will continue to trade the chart, not our feelings.
