S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Oversold Conditions & The 6474 Sweep
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 27th, breaking down the 6474.00 liquidity sweep, the 6533.50 resistance pivot, and the VIX 27.85 above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS
A quick note before we begin: I am currently on vacation today. Because I am trading from my travel computer, we do not have our usual options data (call/put walls) for today’s session, and the chart drawings are not as detailed as usual without my full suite of drawing tools. Everything will be completely back to normal next week—today is an outlier and an exception, not the standard. However, the written trade plan below remains the exact same gold standard you have come to appreciate and rely on.
Morning everyone. Today is Friday, March 27th, and yesterday’s trade plan was spot on as we were able to call the downside movement that we’ve been pushing for quite some time. We had continuation yesterday below our significant Daily at 6575.75, which kept momentum pushed to the downside. We also had an amazing long yesterday at 6516.75 which played for 85 points on first touch, delivering an insane pop. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this structured price action as the plan once again guided you to profits.
As we come into the morning, price has been once again drifting to the downside. Last night, we were still getting a little bit of a pop from the 6516.75 as price approached close to our 6575.75 Daily, but it has been drifting down all night, bringing us down almost 70 points from the overnight high as price continues to seek lower to sweep the leg in low from Monday.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: 10:00 AM EST Revised Consumer Sentiment. (Not a Red Tag event).
Volume: Relative volume is coming in at -0.1%. We are pretty much at baseline, meaning we can anticipate a potential full range today.
Range: Expected range of 128 points. The overnight session has already moved 80 points, leaving us approximately 50 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers are hedging to the downside, which creates volatility and opportunity in both directions.
Trend: Downside lean. We are still pointed down with no gain on the Weekly, Daily, or 4-Hour timeframes. However, we have a significant amount of oversold indicators going off, leading us to believe that price could get a nice pop today, making money for players in both directions.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Oversold Sweep & Downside Momentum
We currently come into the session pointed firmly down. We have no support gained on the major timeframes, and dealers continue to hedge to the downside in this Negative Gamma regime. In the overnight session, we drifted nearly 70 points off the highs as price seeks to sweep Monday’s low. However, because we have pushed all the way to the lows in the overnight session, we are going to open the regular market in extreme oversold conditions. This makes our edge a bit difficult right at the open, but it sets up a prime environment for a violent relief rally if the right levels are swept and reclaimed.
