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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, November 12th, and we come off another insane day in the trade plan. On Veterans Day yesterday, price decided to play our 7622.50 wall with absolute precision, smacking down to bring us all the way back into our 7599.25 spot, which held as support due to being former resistance. From there, it only took another unbelievable 70 points to take us directly into our massive Weekly at 7673.50. Many people in the inner circle and in the trade plans were able to take advantage of this squeeze yesterday, as the low relative volume gave us a massive push while players decided to push the market around on a bank holiday. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this awesome long — it paid many dividends for our trade plan subscribers.
We also had some very interesting news in the tech market. After the close yesterday, reports came out that Nvidia’s board was preparing to oust its CEO, and the board met into the evening to decide his future. That news sent the market gapping down at the evening open. As many of you know, Nvidia is essentially 7% of the S&P 500’s movements, so this will play a factor in the overall price action as we know it.
We had a pretty substantial drop in the overnight session, but we continued to hold our 7599.25 level all night — as if it were truly as significant as we know it is. We do not let the news sway our bias. We use the news as fuel. Coiling on the 7599.25 all night was a significant sign for us and something to use as information coming into the morning. This morning, price popped up and rejected once again from our 7621.75/7623.00 area, only to fall and push underneath our significant breaking point at 7599.25, leaving us down roughly 38 points at the time of this writing.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of, but we do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 a.m. We are also digesting the Nvidia CEO situation, which has dragged on tech overnight. Tomorrow is a massive inflationary number with PPI — the production/commercial side of inflation rather than the consumer side — which will be just as big, if not more important.
Volume: Relative Volume is extremely low at -41%, meaning we can essentially take 40% off of our expected range today, given there’s no Red Tag news. That turns our calculation into approximately 71 points expected above or below the overnight highs or lows. Our options analyzer tells us something very similar, expecting between 63 and 67 points in today’s range, so our calculations are very close and in line with our options expectation.
Range: Our five-to-ten day expected range is 146.5 points, given the oversized moves we’ve had recently with the squeeze. We have moved only 28 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 118 points in today’s range — or roughly 71 points after adjusting for relative volume. Given we have been coiled tight all night, a move is certainly a possibility.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, as our gamma flip level has moved above yesterday’s high and directly above the Weekly, to 7677.00. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, putting our gamma flip right above one of our major resistance points. This is a significant ordeal — it tells us dealers are not done with this potential downside move as they continue to hedge their positions for a potential pullback. Negative gamma gives us oversized ranges and money to be made in both directions, but keeping true to our process, we ultimately have a downside lean.
Trend: Down. We are still pointed down on all timeframes — we have not gained on the Weekly, Daily, or 4-Hour, and the 1-Hour is still in the process of being finalized. Even though we are technically bearish on the high timeframes, we expected this squeeze, so we were able to play it accordingly and size appropriately as we look for rotations.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Leg Retrace Meets The Tested Weekly
We are sitting here balancing sideways in an extremely tight range as the market digests this critical information about one of its top tech firms — a company that has essentially dragged the S&P and other stocks along with it, as it is the major catalyst in the AI movement. Whether the CEO situation truly affects the markets that much remains to be seen. What we do know is that our process tells us we are still balancing sideways with a potential to move slightly higher.
