S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Nvidia Earnings & The 6965 Magnet
A detailed ES & VIX plan for Feb 26th, breaking down the Nvidia overnight volatility, the 7004.75 massive resistance, and the 6903 Line in the Sand.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Today is Thursday, February 26th. Yesterday the trade plan gave us the exact momentum breakout above the Daily at 6928.00 which propelled us all the way to our massive magnet level at 6964.50. A big salute to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s breakout and target, as this was foretold in both the Post-Market Breakdown the day prior and the trade plan that was released in the morning. For those of you with patience who were able to sit the grind out, congratulations, you scored big.
Coming into the morning, we are coming off of Nvidia earnings yesterday as they once again crushed earnings, setting the bar even higher. This pushed the S&P up over 25 points in the overnight session, only to hit the massive Nvidia resistance Monthly level. ES, correspondingly pulling back over 50 points in the overnight. However, we found support on our large Weekly at 6943.50 which held us up all night and has currently pushed us right back to our closing location and massive Above/Below area at 6965.00.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: 8:30 AM Unemployment Claims (Red Tag). This is a very volatile and very important news event; we should watch for a shake at this time.
Volume: Relative Volume is -34%. This means once again we could have a very slow, grindy day. We are pushing up currently right now and we must continue to ride with this trend.
Range: Expected range of 81 points. We have moved approximately 28 points in the overnight session, leaving us a little over 53 points left above or below the overnight high. Given the low volume, this range could be stifled, leaving us maybe 30 to 40 points above or below.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Anything can happen and we need to be prepared.
Trend: The overnight session had an opportunity to slide lower and the Bears failed. Right now, we are still pointing up as long as we stay above our significant momentum levels. Default to trend.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Nvidia Digestion & SPX Strength
SPX has held the Daily structure and has looked for a long time like it could continue to make new highs. Currently right now, SPX is above our 6940.00 area and continues to look like it would want to traverse higher. If SPX falls below 6914.00, the indices have a problem.
Looking at ES Futures, we are currently in our massive resistance area that had an opportunity to play yesterday and did not. We got a reaction—a pullback of 50 points—only for the overnight session to hold and push us right back into our major area at 6965.00. The fact that this has happened leads me to believe that this reaction has already been had and we could continue to push higher to the upside. We are above momentum shift pivots, we continue to push to the upside, and SPX is giving us no reason to believe otherwise in combination with a very suppressed VIX.
