S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Non-Farm Friday & The 6718 Leg Low Target
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 6th, breaking down the massive red tag news volatility, the 6815.75 midpoint pivot, and the 6718.75 leg low sweep target.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Good morning everyone. Today is Friday, March 6th, and once again we come off an unbelievable day yesterday in the trade plans — we literally nailed every single move. From the short under 6857.00 to the pop with the sweep underneath 6815.75 to the low of the day around 6788.00 that was foretold even pre-market, which led to a 50-point squeeze shortly after. Everything was given in the trade plans way in advance, and it was an unbelievable day for subscribers. I want to thank everyone who reached out to me via direct message — watching you guys succeed is truly a driving factor for me, and I appreciate all the outreach.
As we come into the morning, yesterday we popped at the close quite significantly and drifted up into our massive resistance area located at 6851.00, which we talked about yesterday — essentially our short zone. We were able to catch our monster short to the lows. As I’ve said many times before, what is once support becomes resistance, and that indeed played out in the evening session. At the time of this writing, we are currently down 44 points, located directly at the leg lows from yesterday. Once again, I’d like to reaffirm my downside bias as it has been for weeks and reinstate the fact that we have not gained on any timeframe — whether it be the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, or even 1-Hour support. At this point in time we are still pointing down, and as I said yesterday, there is a high probability chance at some point we will sweep the leg lows at 6718.75. If that happens today is hard to tell, but as of right now that is the mission, as the Bulls cannot gain support and new lows are imminent.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: This is one of the biggest days of the month for Red Tag news. Pre-market we have Core Retail Sales, Non-Farm Payroll Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. Today is going to be a massive day as far as volatility is concerned. We also have geopolitical events happening in the Middle East with Iran, as well as spiking oil which is currently applying pressure to the indices.
Volume: Relative Volume is +14.7%. This means we could push a little bit past our expected range today, so be prepared for anything.
Range: Expected range of 115 points. We have already moved 67 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 45 points above or below the overnight high. With the elevated relative volume, we could push past this.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma volatility regime. Dealers are hedging to the downside.
Trend: Downside. We have not gained support on any timeframe. We continue to move down and all signs point to lower, including VIX moving higher. The mission remains the sweep of the leg lows at 6718.75.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Leg Low Mission & Support Turned Resistance
Yesterday we popped at the close and drifted up into our massive resistance at 6851.00, which was our big support-turned-resistance zone. We caught the monster short, and in the evening session the market sold off, putting us directly at the leg lows from yesterday. We are currently smacking from that massive spot — what was once support has now become resistance at the 6850s, and we are continuing to move down without gaining support.
