S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: No Support Gained & The 6580 Leg Low Mission
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 12th, breaking down the 6761.75 weekly above/below pivot, the 6749.75 tested four-hour momentum pivot, and the VIX 24.70 monthly line in the sand.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, March 12th, and we come off another fantastic day in the trade plans yesterday. We caught the highs at 6816 for the short that paid well over 65 points, only to turn around and catch the bottom at 6749 that paid 30 points — it was a great day for trade plan subscribers and Discord members alike, as lots of points were posted on the scoreboard and the bell was rung in full. Congratulations to all those who took the trade plans to heart and made every move count. Let’s make today another day to conquer the markets.
As we come into the morning, last night when the Globex session opened we immediately flushed down over 60 points, continuing our downward progression as predicted for the past few weeks. We’ve continued to push down and hold our significant Weekly and Daily levels at 6716 and 6723.50 — this area of support has held firm for the time being and popped us back up to 6761 at the time of this writing. We are currently still pointing to the downside; however, this area of support that we played last night is significant and was our long target from Sunday night and Monday’s RTH session. As we sit at our major resistance levels, we need to figure out exactly what we’re going to play and where momentum shifts in favor of the bears or the bulls.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM, which is a serious Red Tag news event. Keep an eye on this as anything can happen — this is bound to be a market-shaking event.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -28%, which could suppress our total range today by approximately 20 points. This leaves us with potentially only 40 points left above or below the overnight range, though we default to 60 points given the Red Tag event.
Range: The 5-10 day expected range is 121 points. We’ve moved a total of approximately 64 points overnight, leaving us approximately 60 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. With the suppressed volume, a possible compression to only 40 points is on the table — but with Red Tag news, anything goes.
Gamma: We are still firmly in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers continue to hedge to the downside as VIX pushes above the 24.70 Monthly. This environment creates violent moves in both directions, and we need to be prepared for anything.
Trend: Downside. We have not gained support on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, or even 1-Hour timeframe. All signs still point to lower. That does not mean things cannot shift significantly, but the process tells us the mission lower remains intact.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Continued Downward Progression & The 6716 Support Test
We are continuing our downward progression that has been in play for weeks now. Last night’s Globex session confirmed this with an immediate 60-point flush, taking us directly into the significant Tested Weekly at 6716 and Tested Daily at 6723.50. These levels have held firm as support for the time being, but let’s not kid ourselves — no timeframe has been gained, and without support being established on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, or even the 1-Hour, we technically maintain our downside lean in full.
