S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: NFP Headlines & The 7402 Decision Point
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 8th, breaking down the 7402.00 make or break resistance, the 7364.50 one hour buy zone, and the 17.44 VIX tiebreaker.
SCHEDULED NEWS
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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, May 8th, and we come into another awesome day right off the trade plan. Yesterday, we preemptively spotted the highs for a potential selloff of over 70 points from our 7402.00 level to start the day. Then we were able to play some amazing spots on the way down for longs, including our 7359.00 one hour support, which paid 14 points on first touch. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of yesterday’s plan. This has been extremely difficult trading, but being patient and following a professional trade plan is truly the key to success.
As we come into the morning, we had an insane rally in the overnight session. Yesterday’s market opened, gapped down into our 7336.00 Put Wall, held our major support at 7338.50, reclaimed yesterday’s low, and squeezed all night long back to the highs for well over 60 points. Now we are sitting right back at our major resistance at 7402.00, and this will be a very interesting morning.
We are also less than 10 points away from the all time high made in yesterday’s Globex session that was never satisfied. We are literally a stone’s throw away from making a new all time high, but we are sitting directly at the make or break level with the 7402.00 4 Hour and the 7399.25 Daily. What happens here this morning can make all the difference. Do we pop this level, satisfy the all time high, and move back into price discovery mode, or do we reject and pull back into support to digest last night’s Globex move?
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: This is a full headline volatility day. We have Red Tag news at 8:30 AM Eastern with unemployment claims, Non Farm Payrolls, and average hourly earnings. Then at 10:00 AM Eastern, we have consumer sentiment and preliminary inflation expectations. President Trump also speaks at 12:00 PM Eastern. Be prepared for anything because this market can rock both directions today.
Volume: Relative Volume is down 22% this morning, which is common coming into major Red Tag news because participants often wait until after the event. I expect this number to change once the data hits.
Range: Expected range is 77 points. We have already moved 66 points, leaving approximately 11 points above or below the overnight high or low. However, with NFP, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and President Trump speaking, we can absolutely exceed the normal expected range today.
Gamma: We remain in a broader buy the dip environment, but the key practical guide today is whether ES can reclaim and hold above 7402.00 or reject and rotate back into support. VIX 17.44 will be the volatility tiebreaker.
Trend: We are still insanely bullish. We have no reason to believe the market cannot continue higher, but sitting at 7402.00 with massive news ahead means we need to wait for the level to prove itself.
🧠Current Market Context
The NFP Decision Point at All Time Highs
Yesterday was the first real push down after three straight days of an unprecedented rally with 17 green 4 Hour candles. That move lower was not necessarily significant, but it was the beginning of how price digests a strong trend and starts accepting value at higher highs. Price pushed down, found support, reclaimed yesterday’s low, and then squeezed all night back into the exact resistance that mattered: 7402.00.
This is how uptrends work. We move in an upside fashion, pull back, accept value, move back and forth, and then make the next push higher. Right now, ES is sitting at the last untested 4 Hour resistance before the 7410.50 all time high. If buyers reclaim 7402.00, especially with the 7404.00 options pivot right there, the market can satisfy the Globex all time high and move back into price discovery. If sellers defend 7402.00 and the 7399.25 Daily, we can retrace a meaningful part of the overnight move and look for support underneath.
