S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Negative Gamma Rotation & The 7420 Support Test
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 15th, breaking down the 7490.00 gamma flip, the 7420.50 - 7421.25 critical support zone, and the 19.42 VIX pressure pivot.
SCHEDULED NEWS:
No Scheduled News
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Built from the uploaded May 15 transcript only.
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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, May 15th, and I welcome everyone to another amazing day in the trade plans. Yesterday, we called the extension for the week all the way up to 7510.00, which was our final upside target and completed the weekly bullish imbalance, creating an efficient market to the upside.
That gave us a beautiful rally from our 7366.25 leg-end low for almost 200 points, only to hit our upside target almost perfectly. The best part is that in the post-market breakdown yesterday, we discussed how that could possibly be the high and how we could expect a rotation. Waking up this morning, that is exactly what we were delivered. At the time of this writing, ES is down more than 80 points, giving us an amazing call from the beginning of the week, yesterday’s upside target, and now this morning’s rotation.
Congratulations to everyone who has been following along all week and was able to take advantage of these rotations. We have continued to nail this market move after move. As we come into today, this pullback is not bearish by itself. It is healthy. We have been elevated and outside of value for weeks, and a little relief to find new buyers is welcome. The key now is whether this support pocket holds or whether Negative Gamma starts expanding the downside range.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No scheduled Red Tag news to speak of today, but we do have geopolitical headline risk with President Trump in China working with President Xi regarding soybean trade agreements and other matters. Even without scheduled Red Tag news, we need to be cautious.
Volume: Relative Volume is elevated over 94% this morning with VIX spiking, which tells us participation and volatility are active. This can create expanded opportunity, but it also means levels can move fast.
Range: Expected range is 80 points, and we have already moved approximately 92 points in the overnight session, exceeding the expected range by around 13 points. With elevated Relative Volume, we can still look for roughly 50 - 60 points of additional extension above or below the overnight high or low, but this must be monitored because geopolitical volume can fade.
Gamma: The gamma flip has moved above us to 7490.00, putting us back in a Negative Gamma regime. Dealers are hedging to the downside, which opens the door for volatility, range expansion, and two-way opportunity.
Trend: We are still bullish on the higher timeframes, but we are pulling back into a critical support pocket. Staying above 7420.50 - 7421.25 is extremely important for continuation higher. Below that area, things get dicey fast.
🧠 Current Market Context
Healthy Rotation, Negative Gamma & The 7420 Support Line
This rotation was highly expected. We talked about it yesterday. We met the weekly bullish imbalance, filled the upside inefficiency, and now we are waking up down more than 80 points. That is not automatically bearish. In fact, after the market has moved this far this fast, a pullback is extremely healthy. The question is not whether the pullback makes sense. The question is whether buyers defend the support structure underneath.
