S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Muted Friday Grind, Positive Gamma & The 7200 Line
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 1st, breaking down the 7235.00 gamma flip, the 7200.00 - 7213.75 buy zone, and the 7265.75 Globex all-time high target.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Friday, May 1st, and we come into the morning off an insane trade plan yesterday. We called the bottom at 7155.00 - 7158.00, which was the major buy noted in the trade plan title, and once again the plan paid dividends. 7158.00 played and took us well over 100 points in the cash session, pushing us well past all-time highs and giving Team VICI one of the biggest single-call days we have had all week. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of that monster move. It was set up to perfection.
As we come into this morning, price has been drifting sideways all night in a very tight 19.50-point range. We have once again pushed up and accepted value outside of our current two-week balance range, which is exactly what we were anticipating from yesterday’s long. We had not lost support on any timeframe, we had no reason to be looking for shorts, and yesterday’s trade plan title laid out the all-time-high scenario clearly. Now here we are, basing sideways at the highs in Positive Gamma territory on a Friday with extremely muted range expectations.
We have also made another all-time high in Globex at 7265.75. As I have said many times before, Globex all-time highs generally become cash-session targets because cash-session players do not like leaving those highs untouched. That makes 7265.75 a major target this morning, with the 7265.00 Call Wall sitting right there as a magnet and area of contention.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No major Red Tag news to speak of today. The bigger theme is Friday price discovery, low relative volume, and all-time-high acceptance.
Volume: Relative Volume is negative 52% this morning, which tells us this could be a very slow, grindy session. With volume this low, we need to reduce expectations and avoid forcing trades.
Range: Expected range is approximately 67 points. With only a 19.50-point overnight range and Relative Volume negative 52%, the adjusted expectation is closer to 33.50 points total, leaving only about 14 points above or below the overnight high or low for extension.
Gamma: We are in Positive Gamma territory, but the gamma flip has rolled up to 7235.00, sitting only about 20 points below current price. Dealers are rolling hedges higher, which supports upside, but a break below 7235.00 can increase volatility as hedging shifts back to the downside.
Trend: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour timeframes are all still pointed higher. This is still buy-the-dip territory until proven otherwise, with the main ES line in the sand sitting around 7200.00 - 7213.75.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Muted Positive Gamma Grind at All-Time Highs
We continue to surf all-time highs, and the structure is still very clear. We have not lost on any major timeframe. Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour are all still pointed up, and there is no reason to be looking for a random short just because price feels high. This is still a buy-the-dip environment, but because we are at all-time highs on a Friday with Relative Volume around negative 52%, we need to be extremely careful about expecting harsh movement. This may be a slow, grindy, sideways session where the market simply accepts value and bases most of the day.
The important gamma note is that the flip level has rolled up again to 7235.00. That tells us options dealers continue to roll their hedges higher and anticipate more upside. However, the closer the gamma flip gets to current price, the more careful we must be. If ES pushes below 7235.00, that can cause dealers to hedge back to the downside and increase volatility. At the same time, because 7235.00 also has a Put Wall, it can potentially act as support in this muted range environment, even though it is not a normal structural level I would usually lean on.
