S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Multi-Day Balance, The 7608 Lid & The A+ 7542 Pocket
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 2nd, breaking down the 7608.50 resistance lid, the 7583.00 lone buy in balance, and the A+ 7542 daily leg up.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 2nd, and yesterday was a fairly muted session as price swept below the previous day’s low on Friday and held our significant Four-Hour at 7577.50, only to slowly drift higher and continue to make a new all-time high. It was another ridiculous display of the bulls in action and a perfect reminder of why we never want to fade a low-relative-volume market. Congratulations to anyone who stuck with the plan.
This morning we wake up directly in balance with yesterday’s range and Friday’s range, leaving us right in the middle of a massive two-day balance — and ultimately in the upper range of last week’s balance as well. That puts us in a very peculiar position. We sit in ES at 7597.00, less than 30 points away from all-time highs, yet lacking a serious level of support to continue this upside move. Our edge is in the edges, and being directly in the middle of balance does not leave us in a good position for opportunity. This might be a very patient, wait-for-a-premium-setup kind of day.
📬 IMPORTANT — CHECK YOUR SPAM FOLDER! I’ve been sending out follow-ups and touch-up emails to all subscribers, as well as everyone subscribed to the SPX Brief — and I can clearly see a lot of these are landing in your spam box and not getting opened. Please check your spam/junk folder for emails from rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com, and mark them as “Not Spam” so they continue to land in your inbox going forward. There is valuable information in those emails that I don’t want you to miss!
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do have JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM, which is not a Red Tag event but is something to be aware of — monitor price for any volatility around that time. Also keep in mind we are in an environment where any Trump tweet on the war can propel the market to new all-time highs in seconds, so headline risk is always on the table.
Volume: Relative Volume is coming in low at -15% this morning, which could slightly mute our expected range today. Honestly, that would not be a surprise given the fact that we have no real scheduled Red Tag news events to cause volatility.
Range: Expected range of 59.5 points. We have already moved 35.5 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 24 points left in the session above or below the overnight highs or lows. With the muted volume environment, the realized range could come in even tighter than that.
Gamma: Positive Gamma. Our gamma flip strike today is at 7500.00, which is an interesting location given that it sits directly below our Four-Hour leg to the all-time high, and ultimately the main area that needs to hold if we are going to continue to drift higher. Dealers continue to hedge to the upside.
Trend: Up on every timeframe — Weekly, Daily, Four-Hour, and One-Hour — as we continue to push into all-time highs. We are still very much in a buy-the-dip regime. That said, we have been moving up for well over 9 weeks now, and at some point rotation will happen. You can clearly see in the chart that things are starting to slow down, as the larger pushes to the upside have turned into sideways balance while we continue to poke new all-time highs without continuation or follow-through.
🧠 Current Market Context
Middle-of-Balance — No Edge in the Middle
We find ourselves directly in the middle of balance, which makes for a very difficult trading day in order to determine direction. We are in a multi-day balance and — unfortunately — getting ready to start a multi-week balance, so we are essentially struggling to have an edge. Our edge is in the edges, and the middle of balance is the worst place to be looking for opportunity. We have minor support directly underneath us that we need to watch closely; if that level gives out, we could come down much lower — approximately another 50 to 60 points — into our first real level of support. The patient trader wins today.
