S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Multi-Week Balance & The 7507 Monster Level
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 22nd, breaking down the 7507.00 make-or-break Daily, the 7524.25 momentum shift pivot, and the VIX 17.44 monthly above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, July 22nd, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan. Our Daily and 4-Hour level at 7504.50, alongside the Daily at 7507.00, held perfectly for yesterday’s low just as the plan provided — catapulting us above the momentum shift pivot that was the very title of yesterday’s plan at 7524.25 and sending us all the way up into our major resistance once again between 7555.00 and 7559.00, only to mark the high of the day into the close. Every single reaction we quoted could potentially happen, did. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the rough price action — the plan kept us pointed in the right direction and kept things clean and clear the entire session.
Since then, we have drifted right back down in the overnight session and sit down roughly 30 points at the time of this writing. Yesterday’s rally, as spectacular as it was, ultimately accomplished nothing but sweeping yesterday’s high and getting one poke higher into our massive resistance. We essentially retraced the entire move in the Globex session and now find ourselves back at — actually just below — yesterday’s open, sitting directly back above our 7507.00 Daily. That 7507.00 is the major Daily leg to our current high, and it is the level I talked about exclusively in the Inner Circle and in the post-market breakdown yesterday. If you missed that talk, please rewatch it, as it is extremely significant to your success.
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A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of this morning. We do have President Trump speaking again at 3:00 PM ET, toward the end of the day, but nothing early. Keep geopolitical headlines on your radar — they remain on the forefront and anything can happen.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -12%, meaning participation is below average. Using our relative calculation, we can take roughly 10% off of our move — leaving us only about 33 points left in today’s move above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Range: Expected range of 74.5 points. We have already moved 35.5 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 40 points left in the tank before the volume adjustment — and closer to 33 points after it. Not a lot of room, which fits a balance day.
Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma regime. This means expanded ranges and volatility regardless of the fact that we have no Red Tag news. Dealers are hedging, anything can happen, and we need to be prepared.
Trend: Downside lean. We are still pointed down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. Only the Weekly holds us in massive balance. Yesterday’s pop gained us nothing structurally, and I remain inherently bearish below 7560.00.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Seven-Week Balance & The 7507 Leg
We find ourselves once again in the middle of a multi-week and multi-day balance. Looking at the TPO, we have had three days in balance — Friday, Monday, and Tuesday — poking the highs each day but ultimately ending back in balance, and the overnight session has dropped us directly into the middle of all three, extremely close to our current Weekly Point of Control. We have essentially gone nowhere for the past six or seven weeks. This is very difficult, choppy trading for intraday traders and all traders alike, as we simply cannot get any range extension in either direction. Yesterday’s pop was nothing but a pure squeeze that shook the loose hands out after holding yesterday’s low and building a significant W, only to leave us right back in our main location.
