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Good morning, everybody. Today is Wednesday, September 30th, and it is the last day of the month — so prepare yourself for end-of-month volatility.
Overnight, we drifted essentially sideways most of the evening, contained between our 7753.50 Daily and our other significant Daily at 7737.75. Around six o’clock this morning we had a nice push down that put us beneath our leg to the all-time high at 7737.75, where price tested our four-hour leg at 7718.50 — our only untested support — which played once again in Globex for a beautiful overnight long and put us right back in balance.
Update at 8:30 a.m.: The Red Tag news event has just pushed the indices much higher, and we are now flirting with our 7753.50 level. This changes our scope slightly in terms of our 4-Hour stance. If price stays above 7752.50, it could be setting up a beautiful long — and the 9:00 a.m. 4-Hour close is going to decide it.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have Red Tag news pre-market at 8:30 a.m. — Core PCE Price Index and Final GDP quarter-over-quarter. We also have the ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change, a non-Red Tag event that is the preliminary number today, with the real number on Friday. Then at 3:30 p.m. we have President Trump speaking, and at 6:00 p.m. tonight we have a member of the FOMC speaking. We are looking at a huge day of volatile, news-filled moves, and any one of these events could cause extreme volatility, so be extremely cautious and careful.
Volume: Relative Volume is flat this morning at negative 3%, meaning we should expect our full range today.
Range: Expected range of 68.5 points. We have currently moved 37 points, leaving approximately 31.5 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: The gamma flip level is still at 7850, well above us, putting us in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, which could open up increased ranges and give us a potential downside lean, while also giving us the capability to look for trades in both directions.
Trend: We are still technically up on the Weekly and Daily time frames. The Daily barely held on yesterday by less than 2 points — but hold on it did. However, we lost on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour yesterday. A 9:00 a.m. 4-Hour close above 7752.50 would regain the 4-Hour and 1-Hour and put us back up on all time frames.
🧠 Current Market Context
Cracks in the Lower Time Frames, and One Close to Fix Them
With the Daily up and the smaller time frames down, cracks are showing in this market. That means we could potentially look for trades in both directions — the lower time frames give us an overall downside lean, but we still look for significant areas of support to play for longs.
We have two Dailies we are going to focus on today. Our upside pivot is 7753.50, and our lower midpoint pivot is 7737.75. These will give us guidance on whether the market continues its move lower, or whether we continue to try to push higher and breach our upside ceiling at 7753.50.
