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Good morning, everyone. Today is Friday, October 2nd, and we come off another ridiculous day in the trade plan. Careers were made yesterday with this epic call. We had weakness below the previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7746.00, and then we called the massive support down in the 7675 area as our must-hold. This was the big spot we pointed out in the Weekend Review, with a massive amount of selling in the weekly profile that told us it was going to be a phenomenal spot. It was exactly that: price came down, played our area, and rejected swiftly in the afternoon, only to squeeze the remainder of the afternoon session all the way back up to the highs, retracing every single bit of the morning’s move down.
That gave us a beautiful 75-point squeeze, which continued in the overnight session, where we find ourselves up over 31 points — meaning our spot played for well over 100 points from yesterday’s low.
VIX told the exact same story. In the plan we had the 17.44 Monthly and 17.71 Daily marked as our inverse long for the indices. VIX held our 16.20 yesterday, pushed up into the 17.71 Daily/4-Hour and 17.44 Monthly, and got a huge reaction that sent it back down — right as price arrived at our key long location at 7675. VIX caved the rest of the day, the indices were propped up, and we pushed up well over 100 points. That was a beautiful inverse correlation that played out perfectly according to the plan, and a truly incredible call. Congratulations to all the members who took advantage of this phenomenal trade plan amazingness. It was a display of perfection, and we look to do it once again.
I also want to point something out: we are officially out of September, and the summertime doldrums are over. Yesterday’s volatility was a beautiful example of that, welcoming us into October on the first with a massive 100-point-plus range. Our patience has paid off by waiting for this moment.
Update after the 8:30 a.m. jobs print: The news has propelled us directly into our 7800.75 Weekly and our big Call Wall at 7798.00, cementing our conviction that this market could potentially continue to move higher.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have the massive Red Tag news we’ve been waiting on at 8:30 a.m. — Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month, Non-Farm Payroll Change, and the Unemployment Rate. This is one of the biggest days of the month, and of course it’s on a Friday. Be extremely careful with volatility, as the market could go in any direction.
Volume: Relative Volume is positive 11% at the time of this writing, which could put us somewhere around 33 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. With this massive Red Tag news, that could be exceeded, so keep an eye out for a trend day.
Range: Expected range of 72.25 points. We have moved a total of 42.5 points, leaving approximately 29.7 points above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, as the gamma flip level is still positioned well above the highs at 7850. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, and we can expect increased volatility and larger ranges.
Trend: SPX has not gained on any time frame. ES, however, has started to gain in the overnight session on both the 4-Hour and the 1-Hour, while remaining down on the Daily. That is a vast difference from SPX, telling us to be cautious and anticipate rotations and money to be made in both directions. Because we are trading ES, though, we will default to looking for longs.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Bullish Flag Delivers
We have been building what appears to be a massive bullish flag, and that prediction has come true, as we played the must-hold spot yesterday at the lows and propelled price up over 100 points. We came off a huge spot that was ultimately the massive make-it-or-break-it for us: we swept the 4-Hour leg at 7675, grabbed the Weekly and Daily, and sent price much, much higher. With this massive wind at our backs, we could potentially continue to move higher.
However, we must be cautious. Even though yesterday’s pop pushed us up significantly, we have still not gained on the Daily time frame, and SPX is technically down on all time frames. ES is giving us the indication that we have the potential to move up, clearly defined by the 1-Hour and 4-Hour gains overnight, but we must always remain cautious and wait for our significant areas to play.
