S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Hawkish Fed Fallout & The Mission for New Lows
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 19th, breaking down the 6681.50 daily suppression pivot, the 6584.50 leg low sweep, and the VIX 24.70 monthly headwind.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, March 19th, and we come off yesterday’s trade plan with an incredible push down that paid extremely handsome for subscribers. Price smacked our 6815.75 Daily level at the highs, and after it was unable to gain on the 4-Hour or Daily timeframe, we moved below and sat on our 6721.50 Weekly almost all morning. However, staying below the 6733.50 Daily — as guided in the trade plan — led to a push below the 6721.50 significant Weekly and has flushed us down well over another 100 points as we sit at the lows of the overnight session, continuing to push lower. Congratulations to all those who followed the guidance in the trade plan as we continue to look for lower lows.
As we come into the day today, we find ourselves continuing to drift to the downside as we extend yesterday’s momentum break. We are currently being suppressed underneath the Daily levels at 6681.50 and 6685.50 — these have held us down all night and are continuing to push the lows even at the time of this writing. We have talked about in the post-market breakdown that we have been leaning short for weeks, as all these pops were smackable only to take us lower in the progression as we continue to sweep new lows looking for buyers.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have Unemployment Claims pre-market at 8:30 AM Eastern. This is a big number as we come off yesterday’s hawkish Fed announcement where they signaled only one rate cut for the remainder of the year — substantially lower than what the market was pricing in. They did not raise rates, but the forward guidance was hawkish and conservative, citing potential economic pressures from tariffs. Expect volatility around this number.
Volume: Relative volume is elevated at +23.8%, which is significantly higher than yesterday’s muted rollover session. This could lead to an increased potential range extension of approximately 20%. The elevated volume combined with the post-FOMC environment means this market is primed for movement.
Range: Expected range of 113 points. We have already moved 50 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 63 points above or below the overnight high or low for a potential move. Given the elevated volume and post-Fed catalyst, we could exceed this significantly.
Gamma: VIX has reclaimed and closed above the 24.70 Monthly — dealers are hedging to the downside and the indices carry an increased headwind. As long as VIX stays above this level, expect continued downside pressure and suppression on the indices.
Trend: Strong downside lean. We have still not gained on the Weekly, Daily, or 4-Hour timeframe. Everything remains pointed to the downside. We failed to gain the 6799.75 Daily yesterday despite the opportunity, and the 4-Hour continues to struggle to hold any kind of support. Any pop right now is sellable. We are on a mission to seek a new low.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Momentum Break & The Search for New Buyers
We are in full momentum breakdown mode. Yesterday’s failure to gain the 6799.75 Daily and 4-Hour timeframe, combined with the hawkish Fed announcement, led to a massive flush below our 6721.50 significant Weekly. Once we opened below the 6765.00 Daily levels, we had no choice but to move lower — and they have continued to traverse lower in the overnight session. We are currently being suppressed underneath the 6681.50 and 6685.50 Daily levels, which have kept a lid on things all night.
As I have said many, many times — if they cannot make a new high and they cannot gain support, they must make a new low in order to find new buyers. Right now we are on a mission to seek a new low. I am not looking for longs anywhere until we sweep the low at least at 6584.50 or lower. Every pop is sellable until proven otherwise. We are still in rollover, which leaves us a little funky in terms of volume and levels — some levels below us are technically untested on the new contract but were tested on the prior contract. I will note these distinctions as we go through the plan so you can proceed with the appropriate level of caution.
