S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Free Alpha Friday & The 7189.50 Globex All-Time High Target
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 24th, breaking down the 7166.25 four-hour close confirmation trigger, the 7143.75 prime buy zone, and the VIX 18.97 tiebreaker barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Friday, April 24th, and a quick reminder: today is Free Alpha Friday. That means we are going to do a live stream from 9:15 AM all the way until noon on X, YouTube, and Substack — market commentary, hangout, and conquering the markets together. Don’t forget to attend for an example of the stream I do daily in the Discord room for Inner Circle members.
We come off another amazing day in the trade plan as we caught the long yesterday at 7145.00, which took us all the way up into our 7181.00 four-hour level — a 35-to-40 point long that paid extreme dividends for Substack subscribers. The even more beautiful part is that the 7181.00 four-hour was the exact high of the day, which ultimately took us down well over 100 points in the short — all the way to 7080.00. It was a glorious day for trade plan subscribers as lots of money was made and lots of happy people reported back. Congratulations to all who took advantage of this insane opportunity.
As we come into the morning, we must have had geopolitical news overnight as the market rallied well over 50 points and created a new all-time high in the Globex session at 7189.50, marking another new target for us to aim for in the cash session. As I have spoken many times, the cash session players do not like to leave all-time highs in Globex — we do not know when this area will get cleaned up, but we do know for a fact that the cash session will be gunning for this high at some point. Price is currently elevated above our 7165.00 level, however in the overnight session we accumulated sideways in the massive five-day range we have had over the past week.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We have Revised Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM after the open — not a Red Tag event, but it could still cause a potential shake. Set your alarms for this. Geopolitical headline risk remains — overnight news was responsible for the 50-point rally and new Globex all-time high.
Volume: Relative Volume is spiked up at +48%. This could give us an increase in range — we could expect potentially 45 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 81 points. We have already moved 54 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 30 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high or low. However, with the +48% relative volume spike, that effective range could expand to approximately 45 points above or below.
Gamma: The Gamma flip level is at 7135.00. Dealers are continuing to roll the gamma flip level up, continuing to move the hedging to the upside. This gives us an indication of a massive area we need to hold — positive gamma structure continues.
Trend: Pointed up. Even with extreme headline risk and volatility, we still have reason to believe we are pointed to the upside. The four-hour is still pointed up, the Daily is still pointed up, and the one-hour levels are still pointed to the upside. The bears have had multiple opportunities to dump this market well over 100 points each time and they still cannot lose support.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Globex All-Time High Target & The Five-Day Balance Continuation
Yesterday’s sweep below 7085.00 created a Failed Breakdown trigger that essentially allowed price to squeeze all the way to the all-time highs — an excellent buy that was provided in our trade plan. Even though we have had many pops and drops of over 100 points, we still have failed to lose support on the higher timeframe. As price is currently drifting to the upside, we have some serious levels to play for support today as we come into Friday.
We have continued to move sideways for a whole week, accepting value in this higher range. We pushed up for the past three weeks and have accepted value over the past week — this is very common and very standard for price progression. You make a massive move up, you push sideways, you accept value, you push higher again. The bears cannot lose support here, which is a huge indication that we will continue to move higher and that we need to look for our significant areas of support to play.
