S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Four-Day Balance & The 7164 Sandwich Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 23rd, breaking down the 7164.00 four-hour sandwich pivot, the 7145.00 one-hour midpoint, and the VIX 18.97 tiebreaker level.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, April 23rd, and we come into the morning with another incredible overnight session as our level that we were short all day yesterday at 7165.00 eventually paid in the overnight session — dumping over 70 points straight down in a 15-minute increment. What an incredible display of the process, taking us straight into our majority of the targets from yesterday’s low. Congratulations to all those who were able to be extremely patient and take advantage of this opportunity — it was extremely fruitful.
Last night price fell extremely hard into our 7105.00 area, holding support, and has been traversing sideways only to retrace the entire move down and leave us essentially where we left off yesterday at the close. After the fall from yesterday, we find ourselves directly back in our massive four-day balance as we sit here and traverse the highs and accept more value. Price is below our 7164.00 level but above our 7114.00 four-hour level — we are sandwiched right in between the leg, still determined to pick a direction.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. However, we have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM and Flash Manufacturing PMI that could potentially give us a little shake this morning. Additionally, we have massive headline risk with the geopolitical conflict in Iran — stay cautious and aware.
Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at +26%. This could give us a slight increase of potential movement up to approximately 35 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 79.5 points. We have already moved 59 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 20 points above or below the overnight high or low. With the increased relative volume, that effective number could expand to approximately 35 points.
Gamma: We had another unexpected change of events last night as the Gamma flip level has moved down to 7120.00, acting as a support level for us. It was very close to the overnight low and played as support, propping price up and sending us back higher this morning. We now have Positive Gamma at our backs.
Trend: Still pointed to the upside. We have still not lost on the Daily or four-hour timeframes regardless of the volatility. We are accepting value in this higher range, which is normally what price does after a large push up — we push up, move sideways, accept value, push up again. This is very similar to the price action we are seeing now.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Four-Day Balance & The Sandwich Between 7114 and 7164
We find ourselves in the middle of a four-day balance, sitting directly where we left off yesterday before the fall. Price has now reclaimed the entire down move from yesterday and continues to traverse higher. As of this writing, we are directly at yesterday’s close above the 7164.00 four-hour — this will be a major above/below pivot for us today as it has been important for two days in a row. We are sandwiched between 7164.00 above and the 7114.50 four-hour below, still determined to pick a direction.
From a Daily perspective, we have the upside resistance at 7165.25 and the lower support at 7124.75 that we have been traversing in and out of since last Friday. Price continues to accumulate sideways in this fashion — we are looking to break out in one direction. What direction that is, we are not sure, however we are still very much pointed to the upside. The simple fact that we continue to drop and pop, yet maintain our higher timeframe outlook, leads me to believe we could continue to move higher. We know the levels we need to pop above — our major line in the sand at 7165.00 is the key. A push above there ultimately takes us up to 7181.00 and potentially all-time highs.
