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Good morning, everyone. Today is Thursday, October 15th, and we come off another ridiculous day in the trade plan. We have been talking about our 7837 Daily for quite some time as a very important pivot to stay above, and ultimately to maintain a daily close above. Over the past week we played 7837 with precision more than twice, and it propelled us back up to the highs. Then yesterday’s inflation news sent us down pre-market, and the 4-Hour opened underneath 7837. That let us trade the backside of that Daily on first touch, and we rode the move down for well over 75 points.
Congratulations to all the members who took advantage of this. We banked an extreme amount of profits and points in the inner circle, and even some of our newest members held trades for well over 75 points. It was a glorious day — we were expecting a move, and we finally got it.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have massive Red Tag news at 8:30 a.m., and it should be just as volatile as yesterday. Four events hit at the same time: Core PPI month-over-month, Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims. Then at 11:30 a.m., after the open, Fed Chair Warsh speaks — another Red Tag event that could bring more moves around that time. Be very careful, monitor the news, and watch your trades closely when these times hit.
Volume: We start the day with relative volume up over 25%. That’s significant: more players are here for another massive news day, which could create massive volatility. Factoring that in, we could move approximately 31 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Range: Expected range of 64.5 points. We have already moved a total of 40 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 24.5 points above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment. Given yesterday’s massive move on the inflation news, followed by today’s slate, I expect us to reach every bit of our expected range of about 30 points, and potentially more.
Gamma: We are still in a Negative Gamma regime. The gamma flip level is still at 7850, which gives us a significant amount of resistance overhead. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, and with negative gamma we could see increased volatility and larger-than-expected ranges.
Trend: We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour time frames. Price and process both tell us we are still pointed down and looking for shorts.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sitting on the Daily That Has to Hold
We are down 26 points at the time of this writing, and ES has settled directly on the massive 7734.25 Daily that we have talked about time and time again. In my opinion, this is the big Daily that has to hold. If it doesn’t, things could get ugly, and fast. We need 7734.25 to play and hold to keep this market propped up. If not, the Bulls could be in serious trouble.
