S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Four-Day Balance Coils Around the 7767 Weekly Pivot
A detailed ES, SPX & VIX plan for August 11, 2026, breaking down the 7767.25 midpoint pivot, the 7737.75–7739.50 prime buy area, and the VIX 15.03–14.95 volatility floor.
SCHEDULED NEWS
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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, August 11, and we come off a terribly slow Monday where the trade plan only provided one level because the market simply refused to move. It was a fantastic level nonetheless. ES near-missed the 7799.50 4-Hour, established the high of the day, and rolled all the way down to 7765.00 for a beautiful 35-point short—essentially taking us from the tip of the high to the tip of the low. Even in an extremely muted environment, the plan held true. Congratulations to everyone who had the patience to sit through the chop and make it count.
As we come into this morning, ES remains compressed inside the same upper balance it has occupied since Friday. The overnight session has produced only a 29.50-point range, price is still holding above the previous weekly point of control at 7767.25, and the tested 7799.50 4-Hour continues to cap the top of the range. We are coiled, but without news or meaningful volume, we cannot assume the breakout must happen today.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: There are no Red Tag news events scheduled today. Without a catalyst, the market may remain muted and continue accepting value inside the current balance.
Volume: Relative volume is approximately -28.5%, telling us participation is well below normal and sustained directional moves may be difficult to produce.
Range: The five-to-ten-day average range is 72.50 points. ES has moved only 29.50 points overnight, leaving roughly 43.00 points in the tank before volume adjustment and approximately 30.00 points above or below the overnight high or low after accounting for reduced participation.
Gamma: We remain in a Positive Gamma regime. The gamma flip is down at 7650.00, roughly 140 points below current price, signaling strong dealer confidence in the current upside structure while also favoring compression and mean reversion.
Trend: ES is up across all tracked timeframes. Our process keeps us leaning higher and looking primarily for longs, even if the multi-day balance provides occasional reactionary shorts at the upper edge.
🧠 Current Market Context
A Four-Day Balance Accepting Value Near All-Time Highs
This is a textbook bull-run maneuver: price made an exponential push higher last Tuesday and has since distributed sideways, accepting value inside a new upper range. ES has held an unusually tight 35-point range for two days and has effectively remained in balance for four days. We are above the previous weekly point of control at 7767.25, below the tested 7799.50 4-Hour, up across all timeframes, and operating in Positive Gamma with weak relative volume. That gives us an upside lean, but it also means the middle of this range offers no edge. Our edge is at the edges.
