S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: FOMC Prep & The 6815 Midpoint Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 18th, breaking down the 6815.75 midpoint pivot, the 6721.50 massive weekly support, and the VIX 23.43 above/below.
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S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: FOMC Prep & The 6815 Overnight Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 18th, breaking down the 6815.75 midpoint pivot, the 6721.50 massive weekly support, and the VIX 23.43 above/below.
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, March 18th, and yesterday the trade plan came through for us once again. As we predicted, holding the 6721.50 Weekly allowed us to push past our 6779.25 4-Hour and continue to move higher. That is exactly what happened. We had a slow grind yesterday as it was one of the first days of rollover, which is not surprising given the lower, disproportionate volume spread out through contracts. We have sat in a balance area all night long due to the market digesting potential FOMC movements. Congratulations to everybody who leaned up toward yesterday’s targets for the trade plan, as it was a quick and short day, but the move was had and we were done early.
As we come into the day, the market is currently in a sideways fashion, up slightly as it digests information. We will more than likely see a muted day coming into the afternoon as the market waits for the Fed to make its announcement.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Core PPI pre-market at 8:30 AM EST will give us a shake. The massive event is FOMC at 2:00 PM EST (rate decision), followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM EST. This is when the true volatility will show its head.
Volume: No read on relative volume today as we are still mixed between two contracts due to rollover.
Range: Expected range of 105 points. We have already moved 49 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 56 points left above or below the overnight high or low. However, FOMC days usually blow this out of the water.
Trend: Downside lean. We find ourselves in a precarious position—we still have not gained on the Weekly, Daily, or 4-Hour timeframes. Regardless of the massive push to the upside since Sunday, structure remains pointed down.
🧠 Current Market Context
The FOMC Balance & Rollover Digestion
We currently find ourselves still underneath our significant and very massive Monthly level at 6857.25. This has been a big deal for a long time, and as long as we stay below this, we will remain suppressed overall. This is our big bull/bear line. The major Daily that we needed to gain yesterday was 6799.75, and they failed to do this, leaving us contained in the current leg down, which is still extremely bearish. However, directly above current price we have a very significant Daily at 6815.75 that is tested. It played perfectly multiple times in the second week of March, and we just played it again in the overnight session to pull us back well over 50 points. This is our big above/below pivot today.
