SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
OPTIONS “GEX” LEVELS
📬 Whitelist Us: To keep these plans landing in your inbox, add rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com to your contacts. Found this in spam or promotions? Mark it “Not Spam” and drag it into your primary inbox.
☕ The New & Improved SPX Morning Brief Is Here: Our pre-market SPX brief, delivered free to your inbox every morning before the bell. Seats are limited and will fill up fast — get your seat now: https://go.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-brief
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, October 28th, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan. As we have talked about for days, even though we are pointed down on all timeframes, we could possibly squeeze — and squeeze indeed we have for the past two days, pushing all the way into our big 7772.75 Weekly. As of right now, this is a massive above/below line for us. This Weekly has proven time and time again to be of significance, including getting reactions from it two times in the cash session yesterday towards the end of the day, only to be rejected once again in the overnight session. This level will be massive for us in terms of marking momentum this morning, and we will keep a heavy eye not only on the upside pivot but on our significant level at 7753.50, which is directly below us.
The overnight session has been extremely coiled and very tight, as we continue to hold above the 7753.50 Daily but below our 7772.75 Weekly, keeping us bottled up. This is not abnormal, as the market will generally sit in balance as we wait for the Fed announcement — and today is FOMC.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No pre-market Red Tag news, but we do have FOMC today at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the FOMC press conference and Fed speak at 2:30 p.m. ET. This is a very volatile event and is indeed what the market has been waiting for all week. I would highly recommend everyone try to get a trade or two in before FOMC and then walk away from this event, as this is usually a very erratic and unconventional time to trade — the market can whip in various directions depending on what the Fed chairman has to say. We also have a lot of geopolitical news on the front: President Trump stating that the war is over just in time for the election, Iran wanting to make a deal, and a deal with Venezuela to bring in over a million barrels of oil to reduce the price at the pump, which obviously would reduce inflation and cause the market to rise.
Volume: Relative Volume is approximately -35%. However, this is a moot point in my opinion. I would normally use relative volume as a calculation to understand our potential range, but with FOMC today, it is not surprising that negative relative volume is upon us — nobody is interested in trading this until the FOMC announcement has taken place.
Range: Expected range of 78.5 points. We have already moved 21.75 points, leaving us approximately 56.75 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. That means we have plenty of room to move today as we wind up for this FOMC volatility. However, ranges coming into FOMC could be relatively muted, so we need to be very careful about what we play coming into the announcement.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, as our gamma flip level is still well above us, close to the all-time highs around 7850.00. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, and we need to expect possible increased ranges, especially with today’s news. The negative gamma could actually amplify this and give us much more than we’re bargaining for, so we must be careful — this is a big deal coming into this news event.
Trend: Down. We are still down on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. However, we have talked about this squeeze happening for a bullish move that could take us all the way into our 7753.50 level, which was seen yesterday, and into the 7772.75 Weekly, which was the high.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Squeeze Into the Leg-End High
This should come as no surprise to anyone, as this was something we discussed not only on Sunday in the weekend review but once again on Monday in the post-market breakdown. We opened outside of the previous week’s value, spent two or more periods back inside it, and held inside that previous week’s value — so it is no surprise that we have rotated all the way back up to the top side of the leg that was made on this massive move down. As we continue to press higher this morning in this massive squeeze fashion, we have significant resistance not only directly above us, but also one major level of untested resistance above us that will be the true make it or break it for these bulls. They have had a very prominent squeeze as they’ve retraced this leg down, and now they find themselves in a huge position: either push through this massive untested area, or get smacked and potentially make new lows.
