S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: FOMC Day & The 7200 Gamma Flip Battleground
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 29th, breaking down the 7200.00 gamma flip resistance, the 7155.50 midpoint make-or-break, and the VIX 18.17 daily midpoint pivot.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, April 29th, and we come off another fabulous day in the trade plan. Our 7152.00 battleground held the lows yesterday pre-market and was able to pop us up 30 points, and we were able to pinpoint the exact high of the day at 7181.00 and ride this back down into the 7150.00 area that we knew was our massive area of contention — bringing in over 30 points of profit both directions. Not to mention, late in the day our 7152.00 battleground held and propelled us all the way back to 7181.00 and even farther in the overnight session at 7188.00, essentially setting up another 38 points. Our trade plan pinpointed the exact high and low three times throughout yesterday — just an unbelievable display of precision. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the incredible action yesterday, as Team Beachy always does.
Now let’s get into the day. We have a monster day today — FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM Eastern, and the press conference at 2:30 PM, which is absolutely surely going to shake this market. We have been drifting sideways at all-time highs waiting for news to essentially propel us in one direction or the other. As we continue to move sideways in the overnight session in a very tight range, we are obviously coiled and ready to make a move.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Massive day. FOMC rate announcement at 2:00 PM EST followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM. They are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hold — no raising or lowering of rates. We will see how that turns out and if we get a surprise. FOMC rate announcements are usually the most volatile day of the quarter. My suggestion to everyone is get your money in the morning session, look for the one or two high quality trades, and leave the volatility for other people.
Volume: Relative Volume is -14% this morning. We can take that into calculation, however due to the FOMC rate announcement today, it is a possibility to see our expected range get blown through entirely.
Range: Expected range of 65 points. We have had a tight overnight range of only 22 points, leaving us approximately 42 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high or low. Be prepared for our expected range to potentially get blown through — FOMC days are usually the most volatile day of the quarter.
Gamma: Major shift — options market makers are rolling the Gamma flip level down. We are still in Negative Gamma territory, but the flip level has moved down to our major area of resistance at 7200.00. This is strategically placed right by our major resistance — a break above 7200.00 would force dealers to flip and hedge their downside positions long, potentially catapulting price higher. Below it, they continue to keep the market suppressed.
Trend: Still pointed up on every timeframe. We have not lost on the Weekly, Daily, or four-hour timeframes as of this writing. We have no reason to believe this market will dump as of yet — continue to look for longs until proven otherwise. Based on our data, we know we are due for a pullback at some point. They could pop new highs first before fading, which could be done easily through FOMC.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Coiled Range Into FOMC & The Gamma Flip Battleground
The ES is in a very interesting position. Technically we have not lost on any timeframe — we are still very much pointed to the upside with the Weekly, Daily, and four-hour all pointing up. However, based on our data we know we are due for a pullback at some point. We just don’t know when. They could pop new highs first before fading, which could be done easily through FOMC. Another big cue is that the Gamma flip level has rolled down a few strikes lower to 7200.00 — actually within our structure now. This creates a very interesting ordeal because 7200.00 is right by an area of resistance we have. If this area is pushed above, dealers will have to flip their positions and start buying instead of selling, meaning it could force the indices much higher.
We have continued to drift sideways for two weeks — coiled and waiting for FOMC to propel us in one direction or the other. Yesterday’s overnight push to 7188.00 and the continued holding of 7165.25 as support tells us the bulls are defending. The acceptance above 7204.00 would put us back above the Gamma flip level and our Daily and four-hour resistance — dealers would have to reverse positions and start hedging to the long side, causing price to catapult higher as they cover. Conversely, a break below 7155.50 opens the door to a fast move into 7132.00 for our last stand sweep-and-reclaim.
