S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: FOMC, Rollover Chaos & The 7583 Make-It-Or-Break-It
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 17th, breaking down the 7583 make-it-or-break-it pivot, the 7596.25 weekly midpoint, and the VIX 16.20 monthly pivot.
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⚠️ High-Risk Day Notice: In my honest opinion, today is a high-risk, low-reward day and I personally will not be trading it. We are in the middle of rollover with thin, distorted volume, a major FOMC announcement and the new Fed chair’s first press conference, plus a holiday Friday. My advice: enjoy the day off and let the price action settle. If you must trade, trade before noon, get your money before lunch, and step away. Remember — cash is a position, and it is okay not to trade every day.
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 17th, and we come into the day with a packed news slate and a genuinely difficult tape. We have retail sales this morning at 8:30, President Trump speaking at 9:30 at the open, the FOMC rate announcement at 2:00, and the press conference at 2:30. I want to make a severe point right up front: in terms of picking your spots, this is a very high-risk, low-reward kind of day.
We find ourselves in an interesting predicament because we are directly in the middle of rollover — our third day — which makes the price action messy and scarce. My post-market breakdown yesterday showed the massive discrepancy between the old M contract and the new U contract: one keeps us well underneath the all-time highs and major resistance, the other puts us well above all-time highs and above massive support, while SPX is still being suppressed off major resistance. That is an extremely contradictory look, and combined with low volume, FOMC, and a holiday Friday, it is a very difficult situation. Heed caution — the picture is unclear, the volume is thin, and we have one of the largest announcements of the year with a brand-new Fed chair.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: A loaded slate. Core retail sales at 8:30 (not Red Tag), President Trump speaking at 9:30 (he appears unhappy with the Iran deal and is already on social media, which is sure to bring volatility), the Federal Funds rate announcement at 2:00 (roughly 90% chance of no hike), and — most important — the first press conference from new Fed Chair Walsh at 2:30. We have no idea what he will say or how he feels, and the algorithms will react hard to every comment.
Volume: Relative Volume reads -41%, but this is a distorted, untrustworthy number — volume is split across two contract months and participants are waiting on FOMC.
Range: Expected range of 113 points. We have moved 31 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 80 points above or below the overnight high or low. Given the new Fed chair and the rate announcement, we could more than likely meet or exceed the expected range.
Gamma: The gamma flip level has moved up to 7530.00, which sits below our current structure on the U contract. Dips above that flip still favor the buy-the-dip thesis, but treat the whole regime with caution given the news.
Trend: Contradictory across contracts. On the new U contract we sit above all-time highs and above support with a bullish lean, but the M contract and a suppressed SPX paint the opposite picture — so the honest read is that direction is extremely unclear until the dust settles.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sandwiched in the Middle of Rollover into FOMC
Getting into ES, my post-market breakdown showed substantial differences between the M and U contracts — one traversing all-time highs while the other sits underneath massive resistance — making the picture extremely unclear from an ES perspective. We are sandwiched between two dailies right now. The 7583.00 Daily held all of Monday and propelled us to the highs, but we came down and closed directly below it yesterday, showing a sign of weakness. Then they played our 7577.50 4-Hour perfectly to the tick and launched us up well over 40 points overnight, only to come back down and retest this area in the morning session.
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