S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Floor Pressure & The 6575 Downside Trigger
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 26th, breaking down the 6575.75 lower pivot, the 6633.25 midpoint line in the sand, and the VIX 27.85 ceiling.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, March 26th, and yesterday was an insane day in the trade plan where we literally had the high of the day called in the trade plan title — the 6681.50 Ceiling. We were able to play this and catch the smack as it aligned with SPX, catching a short for over 50 points, only then to catch the sweep of the overnight low into our 6622.00 4-Hour and previous point of control. This allowed us to sweep and reclaim our 6633.25 major Daily pivot and pop over 35 points. It was an excellent day yesterday — lots of money was made, and trade plan subscribers went home happy. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the amazing action yesterday.
As we come into the morning, we are still drifting sideways and currently pushing lower on the 4-Hour time frame. The 6681.50 ceiling was in fact true, and we have now pushed below our 6633.25 significant Daily level, pushing down towards the lower main support at 6581.50, which has become important time and time again. We are currently sandwiched between these two major above/below areas with a midpoint pivot of 6633.25. This is a very important area for us to be trapped in — a break below 6575.75 gives us continuation lower, and a break above 6681.50 gives us higher. This is a hundred-point range in which we could continue to traverse back and forth. However, our current lean is still to the downside as we have not gained on the Daily, 4-Hour, or Weekly time frames, and we are continuing to still point downward.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag news pre-market at 8:30 AM ET — Unemployment Claims. This is a big number and will surely shake the market. Be prepared for volatility immediately at the open.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -21.5% as we wait for the red tag event. Volume will more than likely stabilize as we get closer to the release and should pick up significantly once the number drops.
Range: Expected range of 129 points. We have already moved 65 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 65 points left above or below the overnight highs or lows. A massive range with plenty of room for a move.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers are still hedging short well below 6900. This means we will have downside pressure applied today and more than likely money will be made in both directions.
Trend: Severe downside lean. We have not gained on the Daily, 4-Hour, or Weekly time frames. We are continuing to still point downward. Currently pushing lower on the 4-Hour time frame after the 6681.50 ceiling rejected for the third time. Anything is possible, but the lean is firmly to the downside.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Hundred-Point Range & Floor Pressure
We are currently still balancing in a major range between our lower pivot at 6575.75 and our upper pivot at 6681.50, with the midpoint at 6633.25. This is a hundred-point area in which price has been trapped, and today’s red tag news could be the catalyst that breaks us out of this consolidation. With VIX elevated and pushing against its ceiling at 27.85, and ES pushing against its floor at 6575.75, all things look like we could continue to go to the downside. This is not a surprise to us as we have been anticipating more downside anyway — we cannot gain on any time frame, and the structure continues to point lower.
