S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Extreme Volatility & The 6750 Relief Sweep
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 3rd, breaking down the massive 209% relative volume, the 6750 relief sweep, and the heavy 6815 resistance wall.
SCHEDULED NEWS
NO NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
OPTIONS “GEX” LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, March 3rd, and yesterday we came off an insane squeeze as they pushed hard for over 120 points from yesterday’s low. Our Weekend Review guided us perfectly with our significant pivots above 6835.00 and 6857.00, telling us to be cautious of shorts above these levels. We pushed all the way into the 6903.00 massive weekly and the previous weekly value area high at 6908.00, ultimately closing directly underneath the 6903.00 weekly.
This major pivot has once again guided us down in the overnight session; at the time of this writing, we are down over 100 points, having been down 130+ at the lows. Our process has been telling us that this market was in limbo with a high probability of a short, and we have proof that it has been spot on time and time again.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. However, we are getting extreme volatility from the two political events that have been in place.
Volume: Relative volume is up over 209%. This means we have 109% more active participants than usual. This is the most I’ve ever seen; this is certainly a strange event.
Range: Expected range is 103 points. We have already moved 143 points in the overnight session. Taking relative volume into account, we can expect potentially another 60 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: As usual, we are still in Negative Gamma territory with the gamma level being well above 7025.00. Dealers are hedging to the downside.
Trend: Downside. I am constantly monitoring the bigger picture, and we are still very much pointing to the downside.
🧠 Current Market Context
The 6750 Relief Sweep
Even though my bias is very much still to the downside, we need to be careful. In the overnight session, we swept our major pivot at 6751.50. This was the leg low to a previous high back in February and has been the target the whole time for shorts as a major relief pivot.
Sweeping this pivot has released some pressure from the downside move, and we have already had a pop this morning once they reclaimed 6750.00 and ultimately 6765.00. We have also reclaimed yesterday’s overnight low at 6768.00. As long as we stay above 6765.00 and ultimately 6794.00, we are essentially still holding our major support area that has kept us contained within our massive range.
