S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Double Bottom Squeeze & The 6474 Weekly Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 31st, breaking down the 6474.00 weekly above/below, the 6516.75 gap fill resistance, and the VIX 27.85 barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
A note to subscribers: I’m officially back from vacation and everything resumes as normal. We will have the Post-Market Breakdown at 5:00 PM ET today, streaming live on X, YouTube, and Substack. Looking forward to getting back in the saddle with everyone. Let’s get into it.
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, March 31st — the last day of the month — and we come off another incredible trade plan as we had the high of the day yesterday at 6474.00, which was ultimately three points from the high of the day that led us down over 100 points for a monster smack. Another incredible call at the highs, and another sweep of the lows underneath 6362.75. The trade plans just consistently get better and better. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of both the long and the short yesterday — serious dividends were paid, and subscriber money was made.
As we come into the morning, we find ourselves in a very interesting predicament. We had an area we targeted in the Week in Review for a sweep at 6362.75 — they actually did sweep this area and popped significantly over 120 points into our Weekly yesterday at 6474.00, which ultimately brought us down once again to sweep this level and Sunday’s Globex open low. They did this last night in the overnight session, once again bringing us up with very similar price action as we saw on Sunday, all the way back to our major resistance area at 6474.00. We have now double-bottomed at the lows, and this is going to be a huge spot for us this morning.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag news after the open at 10:00 AM ET — JOLT’s Job Openings. This is sure to give us a shake. Be prepared for volatility when it hits.
Volume: Relative Volume is flat at -1%, which leads us to believe we could certainly meet our expected range expectations today. As we come into the end of the month, there will surely be some institutional position adjustments taking place throughout the day, causing additional volatility.
Range: Expected range of 130 points. We have already moved a massive 113 points in the overnight session. We can expect somewhere around 20 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. The overnight ranges continue to be massive — we are moving over 100 points in Globex as they continue to traverse sideways.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers are hedging to the downside. We have high volatility and extreme conditions. This is a massive signal that we are in a negative gamma environment. Squeezes can be imminent and violent — be prepared for action in both directions.
Trend: Severe downside lean. We have not gained on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, or even the 1-Hour time frame at this point. All signs still point to more down, and until otherwise notified, that is the direction we should be trading in. However, we have double-bottomed at the lows and the overnight price action continues to squeeze off each sweep.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Double Bottom & End-of-Month Dynamics
We find ourselves directly above the swing lows but below resistance, in a very interesting area where our edge is currently limited. We need price to move outside of the current range so that we can have an area to execute from with confidence. The double bottom off the 6362.75 sweep is notable — they have now swept this area twice and popped significantly each time, producing 120+ point squeezes into the 6474.00 Weekly. However, there is no reason to believe we would sweep and reclaim for a third time. I would assume that if price pushes back into the lows, it could push significantly lower.
