S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: CPI Shakes the Five-Day Balance at All-Time Highs
A detailed ES, SPX & VIX plan for August 12th, breaking down the 7775.50 breakout pivot, the 7749.75 pullback buy, and the VIX 14.95 floor.
📣 Funded Trader Blueprint Webinar — Thursday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern
The Funded Trader Blueprint webinar is this Thursday at 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Make sure you register even if you cannot attend live, because every registrant will receive access to the replay. You will also be eligible to win one of two free prop firm giveaways we will be doing during this session. We look forward to seeing you there as you take the next step toward becoming the next funded trader!
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, August 12th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan as patience paid once again. We called 7767.00 our midpoint pivot yesterday, and it proved to be exactly that. Once price pushed below the midpoint, it came down into our prime buy at 7737.75, played the area within two ticks, and gave us a fantastic reaction during the final hour of the day. Team VICI was able to pull approximately 15 points from a trade executed with precision, giving us a strong close after sitting on our hands through Monday and almost the entire Tuesday session.
That trade is still working. The move from yesterday’s lows continued overnight through our first major target at 7767.00 and into the new Daily at 7775.50. We are up approximately 25 points overnight and once again sitting in the middle of the same five-day balance at all-time highs. Congratulations to everyone who remained patient and took advantage of the opportunity. Yesterday was another perfect example that waiting for the larger trade is the move to be had.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have major Red Tag news at 8:30 a.m. Eastern with Core CPI month over month and year over year. This is the major inflation report, and it is likely to create a significant premarket shake that could set the tone for the rest of the day.
Volume: Relative Volume is approximately -37%. If that remains unchanged, we could have a relatively muted session with only about 25 points of expansion above or below the overnight extremes. Given the size of the CPI catalyst, however, I expect participation could increase after the release.
Range: Our expected range is 64.25 points, and we have already moved 25.25 points overnight. That leaves approximately 39 points above or below the overnight high or low under the standard range calculation, with the possibility of reaching close to the full extension if volume picks up after CPI.
Gamma: We remain in Positive Gamma, with the gamma flip at 7650.00. Dealers are still hedging to the upside, giving the market a strong structural tailwind while price remains above that flip.
Trend: The Daily and 4-Hour trends are both up, and we are pointed higher across every timeframe in our process. We remain firmly in buy-the-dip territory, but because we are sitting in the middle of a five-day balance ahead of CPI, patience at the edges is essential.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Five-Day Balance, CPI Catalyst & Price Discovery Setup
We have been balancing at all-time highs since Tuesday of last week, building a tight five-day range after a massive push higher. The highs were tested first at the 7799.50 4-Hour leg end, and yesterday the lows were tested around the 7737.75 Daily and 7739.50 4-Hour leg end. As long as those lows continue to hold, I believe the sequence favors another push through the highs and into price discovery. The problem this morning is location: ES is sitting directly in the middle of that balance at the 7767.00 previous weekly point of control. Our edge is at the edges, and right here we have no real edge.
