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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, November 10th, and we come off another unreal day in the trade plan, as we called the squeeze from the lows on Sunday. Price was able to open above our massive pivot at 7460.00, back-tested the Daily at 7458.50, and gave us an unbelievable push of over 225 points up yesterday — with well over 110 points of it coming in the cash session. We knew the squeeze was a potential, so we prepared for it and sized appropriately. Between our History Says posts and the fact that we were sitting on our 200-day moving average and yearly VWAP, we knew this was an absolute possibility. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this call-out!
The volatility we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks has been unreal, and it is highly welcome. With the VIX extremely elevated and price sitting in Negative Gamma territory, we are getting the type of ranges that make for an exciting trading day.
As we come into the morning, the overnight session has been coiling in a very tight, balanced fashion, moving only 32.75 points as the market patiently waits on this morning’s inflation data. Yesterday’s massive squeeze accomplished nothing in terms of gaining support — but it certainly sent us much higher, right into some serious, significant resistance. Right now, we are butting our heads on yesterday’s close and a major high-timeframe pivot at the 7599.25 Weekly, the 7596.25 Monthly, and the 7599.00 Daily.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have Red Tag news pre-market at 8:30 a.m. — Core CPI and CPI m/m. These are big inflationary numbers, and the market is patiently waiting for the data. Be prepared for a move.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -24%, which is to be expected this morning as price sits and waits for the news. I am omitting relative volume from our calculation, knowing the CPI number is the reason for the negative reading. But even if we were to factor it in, we could still expect somewhere around 130+ points in today’s expected move.
Range: Expected range of a massive 184 points — one of the largest ranges I’ve seen in a long time. We have only moved 32.75 points in the overnight session as price coils ahead of the news, which leaves approximately 151.25 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. That is an unbelievable number. Yesterday’s squeeze left some serious inefficiencies on the way up, just like we left inefficiencies on the way down last Thursday.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, as our gamma flip level has moved all the way to 7745.00. Dealers are still hedging to the downside in this market, creating oversized ranges and giving us some extreme volatility.
Trend: Down. We are still pointed to the downside on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. Yesterday’s massive move did not gain a single timeframe. We are looking for shorts only until support is gained.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Squeeze Into the High-Timeframe Ceiling
We have been moving down for weeks, putting in four solid red weeks before this week, only for price to pop off the 200-day moving average and the yearly VWAP. Yesterday’s massive move did exactly what we expected — it pushed us directly into our major resistance areas, where we have paused in the overnight session and essentially hit our head. We are bumping up against yesterday’s close at the 7599.25 Weekly, the 7596.25 Monthly, and the 7599.00 Daily. This area is thick with high-timeframe resistance, and it aligns with a Call Wall at 7595.00. This is a massive spot, and it will be our big pivot for above or below today. As long as price stays below it, we can anticipate a potential sell-off all the way back down.
