S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Core CPI Volatility & The 7374 Momentum Shift
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 10th, breaking down the 7374.75 momentum shift pivot, the 7456.25 high-probability short, and the VIX 20.78 weekly hold.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 10th, and yesterday was one of the most unbelievable days we have seen in the trade plan in a very long time. We called the high right at the 7477.50 ceiling pivot that got swept, and our actionable setup told us to get short as soon as we got below it — which we did, paying over 250 points for an unbelievable pre-market call. From there we came down and played 7414.00 for 30 points, then 7368.00 for another 30 points in long pops on the way down, before finally cascading into our 7264.50 Daily — which aligned with the 7234.50 Daily on SPX that we have talked about for weeks and even covered in the podcast I did with Bubba on June 5th. It played perfectly to the tick and paid 130 points. Between the 250-point sell-off, the two 30-point pops in the middle, and the 130-point pop into the close, it was an absolutely phenomenal display of the trade plan. Kudos to every one of you who executed off of these levels.
As we come into the day today, we find ourselves extremely soft. We have continued to drift down in the overnight session — down almost 90 points at the peak — and we sit down 70 points at the time of this writing. The big story today is the Red Tag inflation print at 8:30 a.m., and with a projected range this large, we need to be ready for volatility from the open.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have major Red Tag news this morning at 8:30 a.m. pre-market with Core CPI Month-over-Month and Year-over-Year. This is an enormous inflation print, and given that we have been moving down in the overnight session, it is sure to create significant volatility. Stay sharp around the release.
Volume: Relative Volume is extremely elevated at +68%. This essentially creates a much larger move than our base range can indicate — it could blow our range up all the way to roughly 200 points, leaving us approximately 110 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. Prepare for serious volatility today.
Range: Expected range of 132 points. We have already moved 87.5 points in the overnight session, which normally leaves about 45 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high. However, factoring in the elevated relative volume, this could expand to nearly 200 points total, leaving us roughly 110 points to work with in either direction.
Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma regime with the gamma flip level all the way up at 7600.00. Dealers are hedging to the downside, preemptively assuming we continue lower. This expands volatility and opens the door for money to be made in both directions.
Trend: Downside lean. After yesterday’s massive 130-point pop into the close, we did not accomplish anything — we did not gain on the 4-Hour, Daily, or 1-Hour timeframe. We remain extremely soft, below our momentum shift pivot at 7374.75, with dealers hedging to the downside. Without support being gained, we maintain our downside lean.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Failed Pop & The 7374 Momentum Shift
Here is where things get interesting. Yesterday we had a major pop that accomplished absolutely nothing from the lows, sandwiched by a massive 250-point sell-off that brought us right back down. That clearly leaves us with severe downside momentum, especially with options dealers hedging to the downside in this Negative Gamma regime. The picture is clear for now: we are still moving down. After a move that large, we will more than likely digest this range before moving outside of it — but with such a large projected range today, my assumption is that we eventually break outside of it. Which direction we can never know for certain, but for now we are pointing lower.
