S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Coiled at the Lows & The 7458 Momentum Shift Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 28th, breaking down the 7458.50 true momentum shift pivot, the 7412.25 Weekly line in the sand, and the VIX 18.41 above/below.
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Good morning, everybody. Today is Tuesday, July 28th, and we come off another record-breaking day yesterday. Price popped exactly as our data told us it should on the Sunday open and gravitated directly to the 7524.25 Daily. We have known this Daily very well over the past few weeks, and it once again played to the tick. Price then hovered above 7507.00 until the open — which was our short trigger in the Weekend Review. At the open, price immediately cascaded below 7507.00 and fell well over 100 points in the first three hours of the morning, cascading us all the way to new lows underneath Friday. It was a day of trade plan perfection.
Congratulations to all those who took advantage of that call. We had another ridiculous day in the Inner Circle as the scoreboard continued to put up massive numbers, and our Inner Circle team and Substack subscribers continued to make new heights. It was a glorious day, and I salute you all.
Coming into this morning, we continue to base sideways. We are still below our significant momentum Daily pivot at 7458.50, yet remaining firmly above the Weekly that has kept this whole thing together at 7412.25. This is the exact same situation we had Thursday and Friday. Since Thursday we have now had three sessions — Thursday, Friday and Monday — in which we have stayed relatively beneath 7458.50, only popping above it for brief moments. The overnight session has moved sideways all night long inside yesterday’s value area with a very tight range of only 37 points. With a relatively large expected range and a relatively muted current range, I am certainly anticipating somewhat of a move today.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news events to speak of today. We do, however, have Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. — it is not a Red Tag event, but it should be noted for potential volatility. More importantly, tomorrow is FOMC, a massive rate announcement, and the market is clearly waiting to see what happens.
Volume: Relative Volume is coming into the day at 15.8%. That is muted, but if relative volume continues to hold strong it could increase our expected range today slightly — do the math on it as the session develops.
Range: Expected range of 81 points. We have only moved 37 points in the overnight session so far, leaving us approximately 44 points left above or below the overnight high or low. That gives us plenty of room for today’s action.
Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma, as has been the constant regime. Our gamma flip level sits at 7625.00, meaning dealers are hedging to the downside, giving us expanded ranges and a downside lean. When we get Negative Gamma volatility, we have the ability to play both directions and make money from both the long and the short.
Trend: Downside lean. We are down on all time frames — we have lost support on the Daily, 4-Hour and 1-Hour — keeping our overall bias pointed down and bearish. That does not mean we can’t get squeezes to go test what was left untested on yesterday’s move down, but we defer to the downside until the Bulls move above something significant and actually hold it.
🧠 Current Market Context
Coiled Inside Value Ahead of FOMC
We are still currently down on all time frames, and we have not gained anything of significance — we continue to lose levels as we walk down. The ES has balanced at the lows all evening and has done so since last Thursday. We find ourselves coiled tight inside yesterday’s value area, and price is prepared to make a move. Holding the lows in the overnight session and technically playing the 7412.25 untested Weekly last week makes it clear why we continue to base sideways: the Bulls and the Bears are digesting this massive move down. We have a significant amount of resistance above us and very limited support below us.
One thing that has to be front of mind: tomorrow is FOMC. As of right now, with lower oil prices, the expectation is that the Fed holds the rate decision — but that is not a guarantee. If they maintain, nothing changes. Any kind of pivot in the announcement and it will be huge. With that being said, we could find ourselves getting a muted move today in anticipation of a massive move tomorrow. We need to expect the worst and know that with limited news this morning, the market can sit in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrow.
