S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Bear Market Squeeze & The 6633 Inflection Point
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 1st, breaking down the 6633.25 line in the sand, the 6581.50 above/below pivot, and the VIX 24.70 monthly barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, April 1st — the start of a new month — and we come off another amazing day in the trade plans as we had the 6474.00 level as our main breakout level, knowing that if we pushed above this, we would squeeze insanely hard. That is exactly what happened — we filled the gap up at 6518.75 and pushed higher into the 6581.50 area. Congratulations to all trade plan members who followed along and took advantage of the amazing squeeze.
As we come off the incredible squeeze from the lows during our call of the sweep at 6362.75, we are up almost 300 points from the lows from Monday. Price has continued to push higher to test the areas that were left on the way down, and last night price drifted upward, leaving us up over 56 points in the overnight session. We have pushed above our significant Daily at 6581.50, also putting us above the Previous Weekly Value Area Low, bringing price back into last week’s value area. This was a huge accomplishment for the Bulls. We have almost reached the Previous Weekly POC at 6639.00, and we find ourselves at a very interesting crossroads this morning — the area we have approached is a massive make-it-or-break-it zone for direction.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Heavy Red Tag news day — pre-market and post-market open. At 8:15 AM ET we have ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change, at 8:30 AM ET we have Core Retail Sales, and at 10:00 AM ET we have ISM Manufacturing PMI. These are all massive news events that are sure to give us a shake. Let this stuff shake out before doing anything.
Volume: Relative Volume is positive this morning at +5%. This gives us the assumption that participation is picking up, and we should be able to rely on our expected range today. Expect heightened volatility with the confluence of multiple news events.
Range: Expected range of 144 points. We have already moved 70 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 70 points above or below the overnight high or low for potential range left today. A massive range with plenty of room for a move.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. We are continuing to do a short squeeze, but dealers are still hedging to the downside, which is causing quite an intense push up as players are hedging their short-side positions for the current move to the upside. This is very much reminiscent of a bear market squeeze.
Trend: Short-term bullish, long-term bearish. We have pushed extremely hard over the past day and a half — more so than we have seen in a long time. However, we have still not gained on any time frame. Until the daily closes above 6787.75, we will remain with a downside lean. Currently, I would say we are pointed to the upside, but this is our major inflection point.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Bear Market Squeeze & The Inflection Point
We have pushed almost 300 points from the lows from Monday in a classic bear market squeeze, accepting value back into last week’s range. This is quite a large ordeal, and we now find ourselves at the most critical inflection point on the entire map — the Untested Weekly at 6627.00 and the Untested Daily at 6633.25. This area is the line in the sand for more up or down. A push above 6633.25 could send us much higher all the way into 6681.50 and potentially up into the untested leg around 6787.75. However, if we remain below 6633.25, we will remain suppressed, and the Bears maintain their structure.
