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Good morning, everyone. Today is Wednesday, September 23rd. Yesterday was an extremely muted day, as our push up on Monday left us balancing essentially at all-time highs all day in an extremely tight range of 25 points. The Bulls used all their energy to push this market up to the highs on the ES futures, popping that new high, and then balancing up here as they work on accepting value.
Another interesting note is Monday’s push in SPX, straight up into resistance. SPX has still yet to make an all-time high, and it bumped into the 7771 massive Daily and, more importantly, the 7785 Weekly — the massive Weekly we called on Monday and in Sunday’s Weekend Review. A move above 7697.52 could take us to 7785, and we have reached that highest target. This is major resistance for us on SPX and has obviously proven to be such, as the market stayed muted all day yesterday and through the overnight session this morning.
We are also in an interesting position with VIX’s current location at 14.15, which we spoke about yesterday.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news this morning.
Volume: Relative Volume is at minus 30% — almost minus 31% at the time of this writing, and closer to minus 32.5% by the end of it — which means our expected move could be stifled.
Range: Expected range of 75.25 points. We’ve already moved 24.25 points, leaving approximately 26 points in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. I feel that is absolutely plausible given our extremely tight overnight range of only 24.25 points.
Gamma: We are currently in Negative Gamma territory, as our gamma flip level is directly above us at 7850, within about a point of yesterday’s high. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, and we have a massive amount of Call Walls above us supporting that thesis — market makers selling calls, pushing this market down, and keeping us relatively suppressed since Monday.
Trend: We are currently up on all time frames, but starting to show weakness. ES is up on the Weekly and Daily, while the 4-Hour and 1-Hour are starting to crack. SPX is up on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour, but has not gained on the Weekly — which directly conflicts with what we have on ES.
🧠 Current Market Context
Acceptance of Value, or Distribution for a Smack
We are balancing sideways at the highs with only one real level to capture momentum to the upside, and VIX is sitting in our prime reaction spot. We could be in for an interesting day, regardless of no Red Tag news.
This was such an exponential move up on Monday that we left a massive amount of inefficiencies in the profile, and we could more than likely come back to clean a lot of this up. Everything happens on the lower time frames before the bigger time frames, and we are starting to see cracks in this move up on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour. That doesn’t shift our overall upside bias, but it really tells us we need to be cautious.
