S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Balance, Big Jobs Data & The 7542 Make-or-Break
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 5th, breaking down the 7542 daily leg make-or-break, the 7577.50 true breakout level, and the VIX 16.20 midpoint pivot.
Jun 05, 2026
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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, June 5th, and we come off a spectacular display of trade plan amazingness. We called the long and the bullish accumulation before the open even happened, letting all of my subscribers know I was anticipating a bullish reaction in the morning as long as we stayed above the Daily at 7542.00. We did exactly that — back-tested it right at the open and propelled well over 70 points. The beautiful part is it coincided perfectly with SPX at our big daily leg at 7520.00 that we’ve talked about all week long as the key bias area. It came to fruition and rewarded trade plan subscribers handsomely, with multiple five- and six-figure gains reported — calling out an insane bullish move while the rest of X was screaming to the short side. I appreciate everyone’s feedback, and we look forward to doing it all over again.
As we come into the day this morning, ES has sold off in the overnight session and we sit down approximately 41 points, having tested a lot of significant support overnight and leaving us vulnerable. We’re back in yesterday’s range, smack in the middle of last week’s value area — essentially a multi-balance range with a seven- to nine-day look-back period. We’re still trying to accept value here for the next push higher, but with massive Red Tag news in front of us, things can shift fast. Let’s break it down.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Big Red Tag news at 8:30 AM pre-market — Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payroll / Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, all before the open. These are some of the biggest Red Tag events of the month and are guaranteed to give us a shake. Let the dust settle and figure out what’s happening before engaging.
Volume: Relative Volume is up +10%, increasing our expected range by roughly 6.5 points.
Range: Expected range of approximately 64 points (63.9). We’ve already moved 44 points in the overnight session, leaving us about 20 points in the tank — bumped to roughly a 26-point range above or below the overnight highs or lows with relative volume factored in. However, with this magnitude of Red Tag news, do not count out an oversized move.
Gamma: We remain in Positive Gamma territory with the gamma flip level at 7500.00, strategically placed directly under the massive structure we’ve held for weeks. Dealers are hedging strongly to the call side — we’re relatively short Put Walls but stacked with Call Walls, signaling heavy call activity as dealers hedge their long positioning off 7500.00.
Trend: We are pointed up on the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour timeframes. The 4-Hour is showing particular cracks, but even in last night’s selloff we held support — so I am still leaning to the upside for now. This can change very quickly below our critical levels.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Multi-Day Balance & The Make-or-Break Leg
We find ourselves dead smack in the middle of a multi-day, multi-week balance, sitting directly back inside yesterday’s range and the heart of last week’s value area. That makes direction extremely difficult to pick — when everything gets tested and we’re balancing in the middle, we have to lean on our significant levels to monitor for above/below progression rather than force a bias. We will default to the process: technically we are still pointed up, but support is weak, and a flush below our critical levels could happen fast. We are guaranteed to break out of this range at some point today — the question is simply which way.
