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Good morning, everyone. Today is Thursday, September 24th. Yesterday we had an insane call, where we predicted the potential massive down move well before it happened by spotting a few things in our technical analysis — and more importantly, in VIX, as VIX stole the show yesterday. It held the 14.15 Daily leg, just as we talked about four days in a row prior, played perfectly, and launched off that spot, sending the indices cascading down after making new all-time highs on Monday. This was a beautiful display of trade plan perfection.
However, this has not been easy trading. It was extremely difficult to get on this trade, as they immediately sold right at the open. The upside is that we saw it coming, and it prevented VICI team members from being long all the way down — saving their bullets for a more appropriate day with better probabilities and price action. A penny saved is a penny earned, in my book. All of our stars aligned: we had profit taking at all-time highs on the ES contract, a massive head-and-shoulders on SPX as we bumped into the big untested Weekly at the highs, and VIX as the correlation at our massive leg-in.
This was a perfect display of how beautifully our process plays, and how, if we pay attention, the whole story is in the charts. Not taking bad trades is just as good as taking quality trades. Congratulations to those who took the read and capitalized on the momentum down in the short — and for those of you who sat on your hands like I did, congratulations to you as well. Today is a new day with new price action, and I am looking forward to conquering the markets with each and every one of you.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of, but we do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30. This is not Red Tag news, but it will be sure to cause some volatility, so be prepared for it.
Volume: Relative Volume is highly increased at 72% at the time of this writing. Taking that into account, we could have another possible 50 points left today above or below the overnight highs or lows, giving us plenty of room for a potential move.
Range: Expected range of 80.5 points. So far we have moved 72 points in the overnight session, meaning our total range is technically within 8 points of being met before the relative volume adjustment.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, with the gamma flip level at 7850. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, giving us the possibility of rotations in both directions and increased ranges — as we can clearly see from the overnight move. Money can be made both ways.
Trend: ES is technically still up on the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour time frames, as we have maintained the true 4-Hour leg to the high, but we have lost on the 1-Hour. SPX is up on the Daily and 4-Hour but pointed down on the Weekly. This gives us the possibility of rotations in both directions.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sucked Back Into the Balance
After yesterday’s massive move down, followed by another overnight push to the lows, we are down 40 points at the time of this writing, and we were down over 60 points at the peak this morning. We find ourselves pushed directly back into the middle of our six-week balance area — right back in the middle of the massive price action we just exited on Monday. That gives us plenty of levels and support to play, but also a lot of structure to pay attention to. And once you’re back in balance, we will more than likely stay in balance for quite some time as price determines which direction it will go.
