S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Back In Balance & The 7527 Line In The Sand
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 9th, breaking down the 7524.25/7527 midpoint pivot, the 7501.50 untested 4-Hour, and the VIX 17.19/17.44 above/below.
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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, July 9th, and we come off another insane day in the trade plan. We nailed the short at 7525 right at the open yesterday and rode it down for well over fifty points for an amazing all-morning short — the kind of setup that pays you enough to not trade the rest of the week. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage; that was trade plan perfection at its finest. Then we had the beautiful sweep underneath 7527 on ES, and a matching beautiful sweep on SPX underneath 7427 into our much-talked-about 7420 Daily — only for it to reclaim and squeeze all the way back up above our significant levels, putting us directly back in balance. Just a fantastic display of trade plan amazingness, and once again, big congratulations to all those who set the week off right.
As we come into the morning, we are up 20 points at the time of this writing, as price has drifted well above our 7527 / 7524 huge bull-bear line in the sand. Yesterday we used this level to short below, and in the overnight session — once they got above it — they played the 7525 level once, turned around and played 7527 again, and kept us propped up above this level into the open. This is such a significant barometer for us. We’ve talked about the 7524 / 7527 weekly area for weeks now, and we’ve seemingly accepted value above it once again after yesterday’s amazing sweep in both SPX and ES. It shouldn’t surprise us that the bulls found new buyers after grabbing new liquidity and have pushed us right back inside of balance.
We are sitting directly inside a three-week balance, almost perfectly at last week’s point of control, which leaves us essentially no edge where we currently sit. As I always say, our edge is in the edges — and being back in a multi-week balance, inside multiple weeks’ value areas, doesn’t leave us much to be desired in terms of high-probability trades. So be patient today and let the market come to an edge.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of, though we do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 a.m. this morning. The bigger wildcard is geopolitical: Trump is now insinuating that Iran has reached out for a new agreement — funny, considering yesterday they didn’t want one. This back-and-forth is causing extreme gyrations as we balance, so with Trump on the microphone, be prepared for a shake at any time.
Volume: No specific relative volume percentage stands out this morning, but participation is being driven by the negative gamma regime and the geopolitical headlines. With roughly 42 points of range still available above or below the overnight highs or lows, we have plenty of room for a very nice trade if we stay patient.
Range: Expected range of 83.75 points. We have already moved a total of 41.75 points, leaving us approximately 42 points available in today’s range above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: We remain in Negative Gamma, working against the bulls, with our gamma flip level up at 7620. Dealers are hedging to the downside, giving us both expanded ranges and increased volatility. Be careful today.
Trend: Downside process lean. Yesterday’s close was slightly soft, leaving us closing directly below the 7524 Daily — meaning we technically lost on the Daily timeframe, and we also lost support on the 4-Hour. We are currently pointing down on both the Daily and the 4-Hour, which tells us we could see more downside, especially in combination with the negative gamma skew. That said, being back above 7524.25 / 7527 gives us a tilt in favor of the bulls. I default to the process (down) while respecting this significant pivot.
🧠 Current Market Context
Accepted Value Above The Line & The Balance Standoff
The ES finds itself in another peculiar position. We lost on the Daily and 4-Hour timeframes yesterday, but we’ve continued to drift higher all night and now rest above the 7527 Daily, which has been a monster for weeks. This is another huge pivot point: being above or below 7527 will essentially determine whether the bulls or bears take over today’s price action. As long as we hold above the 7527 Daily, we can continue to push higher. Right now, technically, I have no edge above 7527 — it’s now a tested Daily — and I have no untested resistance overhead until the 4-Hour up at 7580.75. Being above this significant pivot gives me caution about shorting.
