S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: All-Time High Push & The 7161.50 Momentum Shift Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 21st, breaking down the 7181.00 four-hour breakout level, the 7161.50 midpoint momentum pivot, and the VIX 18.97 refined above/below line.
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, April 21st, and we come off another rocking day in the trade plans as we called the short underneath 7152.00 yesterday, which led to a nice thirty-point sell-off shortly after the open. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the Weekend Review where we explained this trade in detail.
The S&P 500 has ground higher all night long as we continue to approach another new all-time high in the overnight session. We are currently up 27 points as of this writing and have bested an all-time high by nearly five points. We are traversing near the highs this morning and we are pushing into the only level of resistance we have in front of us — the four-hour at 7181.00. This is our hurdle to make new all-time highs.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Significant Red Tag morning. We have Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales month-over-month at 8:30 AM pre-market. President Trump is also speaking at 8:30 AM, which will surely shake the tree. After the open at 10:00 AM, Fed Chairman-designate Warsh is testifying — this will be very interesting as he is the new up-and-coming Fed Chairman and will be explaining his policies and how he views the market. This is one of the first times he has been on the podium, so expect a volatile session. Do not be surprised by movement in both directions.
Volume: Relative Volume is low at -33%. This reduces our potential range to approximately 35 points above or below the overnight high or low. In the final thoughts section, note that effective remaining movement is approximately 40 points left in the tank today.
Range: Expected range of 78 points. We have currently moved 33 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 45 points above or below the overnight high or low. With the reduced relative volume, that effective range comes down to approximately 35 points.
Gamma: We remain in Positive Gamma territory as we traverse all-time highs. Dealers continue to hedge to the upside. We have massive amounts of inefficiencies in the profile at this point, and a potential rotation is in the cards — we just don’t know when.
Trend: Upside bias. We are continuing to push higher and have no reason to believe we will come lower. On low relative volume in price discovery mode, we continue to grind with trend. However, with significant Red Tag news and major speakers today, volatility could spike in either direction.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Overnight Grind & The 7181 Breakout Hurdle
The ES has ground higher all night long as we continue to traverse all-time highs. We have pushed above our major Daily that gave us the smack yesterday at 7161.50 — this is also the previous weekly value area high at 7161.25. This is going to be a very important line for us today as it signifies a momentum shift, and we need to keep this level on our map. It is also very close to yesterday’s high at 7162.00. We are going to use 7161.50 as our above/below pivot — as long as we stay above this level, we will continue to traverse higher.
