S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: All-Time High Breakout, Gamma Flip & The 7247 Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 5th, breaking down the 7300.00 gamma flip, the 7247.75 midpoint pivot, and the 7215.00 untested buy zone.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, May 5th, and we come off an unreal day in the trade plan yesterday. We spotted the short in Sunday’s weekend review, got the pullback we anticipated from the 7264.50 resistance area, and came all the way down into the 7213.75 4-Hour, which played perfectly to the tick before launching nearly 60 points for an amazing drop and pop.
That was all premarket. Then during the cash session, once price faded from the 7270.00 area, we came down and played the 7204.75 Daily, reclaimed the overnight lows, and squeezed back once again through the cash session and overnight into the 7260.00 area, paying another additional 50 points. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of this. We absolutely dominated yesterday. Lots of subscribers put money on the board, passed prop firm evaluations, and made serious money from a plan that laid out the structure almost perfectly.
Now, as we come into today, we are less than 40 points from making a new all-time high. ES is up roughly 31 - 36 points at the time of this writing, and we are butting our head against the major resistance area above us. This is a very interesting predicament because the process still points higher, but options dealers have moved the gamma flip all the way up to 7300.00, which means dealers are hedging to the downside. That gives us the potential for volatility in both directions, and if buyers press through the upper resistance, we could see a very hard squeeze.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag news hits at 10:00 AM Eastern, after the open. Be aware that the open can be active, then the market may pause or shake around that event.
Volume: Relative Volume is negative 18% this morning. That reduces the normal range expectation, but the 7300.00 gamma flip overhead can still create volatility if price starts pressing higher.
Range: Expected range is 70.50 points. We have already moved approximately 38 points, leaving roughly 32 points left in the tank. After adjusting for Relative Volume, I am looking for approximately 25 points of possible extension above or below the overnight high or low.
Gamma: The gamma flip has moved all the way up to 7300.00, which means dealers are hedging to the downside today. That gives us the possibility of a two-way move, but if ES continues to push higher into 7300.00, we can squeeze extremely hard.
Trend: Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and even 1-Hour structure remain pointed higher. We have not lost support on any timeframe, so the process still says look higher until proven otherwise. The caveat is the 7300.00 gamma flip and prior all-time high zone overhead.
🧠 Current Market Context
The All-Time High Attempt With Dealers Hedging Downside
ES is in a very interesting spot. Structurally, we have no reason to assume this market has to come down yet. We are up on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes, and the 7204.75 Daily did exactly what it needed to do. Just like SPX holding 7173.91, the ES 7204.75 Daily was the level that, if held, could send us back toward all-time highs. That is exactly what has happened so far.
The big caveat is the 7300.00 gamma flip. For the last stretch, the gamma flip had been acting more like support beneath us. Today, it has shifted back above price and is sitting right near the prior all-time high at 7300.75, with a Call Wall at 7298.00. That is not information I want to take lightly. It tells us options dealers are hedging to the downside. However, our process still supersedes that data. If price continues to press higher through 7264.50 and 7270.25, we need to respect the upside attempt and understand that the very hedging pressure sitting above us can fuel a significant squeeze.
