S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: All-Time High Discovery & The 7628 Gamma Flip Defense
A detailed ES & VIX plan for August 4th, breaking down the 7628.00 daily momentum pivot married to the 7630.00 gamma flip, the 7596-7599.25 confluent support block, and the VIX 16.20 midpoint above/be
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Good morning, everybody. Today is Tuesday, August 4th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. We had our massive momentum shift pivot at 7563.00, which played true yesterday as price was propelled on the Sunday gap up, only to balance sideways directly at our 7553.00 and 7559.50 Dailies. We sat accumulating in the overnight session until the open, which essentially propelled us above the 7563.00 bullish trigger — our Weekly Value Area High — all the way up over 130 points for an extremely intense squeeze. That sent us above our massive areas of resistance and put us approximately 20 points from the all-time highs.
In the overnight drift last night, price accumulated more as it accepted value and made all-time highs as of the time of this writing. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s insane squeeze, as the Bulls took firm control on geopolitical news with Iran and the United States coming to a potential ceasefire agreement once again. The scoreboard in the Inner Circle continued to stay lit up as our members followed the plan and remained extremely bullish over 7563.00. Congratulations to all of you.
Coming into the morning, we find ourselves accepting value once again above our most major support at 7628.00. This was the highest Daily leg down created at the time of rollover, and now we find ourselves all the way back above it, pushing through all-time highs and accepting value at this level. This is going to be a very significant area for us to stay above today if we are going to continue our push higher in search of price discovery — and we still have a significant amount of support below us that we could potentially play for a pop.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of this morning, so we have no volatility-creating headlines to look for. However, we do have a lot of geopolitical news on the horizon as President Trump continues to keep things interesting for our trading day, and we must always be aware of that. The only thing on the schedule is JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 a.m. — not a Red Tag event, but a scheduled news event nonetheless, so be prepared for a shake at that time.
Volume: Relative Volume is at +3% today, leaving us relatively flat, which means we could potentially meet today’s expected range.
Range: Expected range of 109 points. We have only moved 28.75 points in the overnight session, leaving us a massive amount of room and putting real opportunity on the table coming into the morning.
Gamma: We have a change of events today. Our gamma flip level is at 7630.00, essentially directly below our current price and located directly at one of our major levels of support. Being in Positive Gamma territory tends to lead to slow, grindy days, so we must be prepared for that — but also understand that the gamma flip trigger is directly below us and will act as support. If we push too far below it, it will act as a short trigger. This is something we need to monitor coming into the day.
Trend: We are currently up on all time frames. We have gained on the Daily, the 4-Hour and the 1-Hour, leaving us looking only for buys at this point in time. We are very much in buy-the-dip mode as we have plenty of support below us.
🧠 Current Market Context
Price Discovery Mode & The History Says Warning
Price made a massive push up yesterday and closed firmly above all of it, which leaves us in a very strong position to continue looking for longs only as we go back into price discovery mode. We had a massive close above 7628.00, telling us that this is the way to go. Now we find ourselves sitting in a positive gamma environment and surfing all-time highs as we soon and potentially go into full price discovery.
One thing I want to point out: we had a History Says post come out yesterday, and it is currently leaning bearish. Now, that does not mean that is the direction we should lean, as it is a small sample of less than sixty trades over the course of thirty years — but we should know that history has the potential to produce a mean reversion after yesterday’s massive move. This comes into play precisely because our gamma flip level sits at 7630.00, directly above the Daily level that was so significant for us to close above yesterday at 7628.00.
