S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: All-Time Highs Within Reach & Positive Gamma Fuel
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 15th, breaking down the 7003.75 daily above/below pivot, the 7022.75 last resistance before all-time highs, and the VIX 20.78 suppression barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, April 15th, and we have had an insane squeeze these past two to three weeks. It has been nothing but up — especially for us this week starting at Sunday’s open. We have not had one single rotation as we have squeezed over 215 points, with some days producing absolutely incredible moves. This is a short squeeze like we have not seen in a very long time. We have moved over ten percent to the upside without any retracement, in a matter of three weeks essentially retracing everything that took us months to come down. SPX closed within less than half a percent of an all-time high yesterday, and the ES is merely thirty points away from making its own all-time high. What an incredible time to be trading — the trend has been your friend coming into the week.
Yesterday, our massive Daily at 7003.75 played for a nice fifteen points. We closed below it, however, in the overnight session we have pushed above it and are currently sitting directly at this level. We find ourselves drifting back and forth between this significant Daily and our important options levels, distributing in a sideways fashion once again as price accepts value at the highs. The overnight session has been tight at just 26 points, and we are coiled and ready for the next move.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No major Red Tag news events to speak of today. However, President Trump was speaking this morning at 6:00 AM, which may carry over into some volatility. We also have the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM — a non-severe event, but given our current location, we could still get a shake from it. Be aware pre-market.
Volume: Relative Volume is down -18% this morning. This allows us to shave approximately 20% off of our expected range, reducing our effective range to approximately 50 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 88 points. We have currently moved 26 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 60 points above or below the overnight high or low. With the relative volume reduction, that effective number is closer to 50 points.
Gamma: We are very much in Positive Gamma territory. The Gamma flip level has shifted all the way down to 6900.00, leaving us well within our positive gamma structure. Dealers are now hedging to the upside, leaving us in an uptrend direction in terms of options market-making and hedging positions.
Trend: Upside lean, clearly. We have gained on the Daily and four-hour timeframes. We are currently in buy-the-dip mode this week as yesterday’s close was a massive victory for the bulls, closing well above 6961.75 — making it our last and highest untested daily leg down in this segment. Positive gamma adds fuel to the upside.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Squeeze Into All-Time Highs & Value Acceptance at the Top
We are within spitting distance of all-time highs. SPX closed within less than half a percent of its all-time high yesterday, and ES sits merely thirty points away from its own. This has been a ten percent squeeze to the upside in three weeks, retracing everything that took months to come down — and we have done it without a single meaningful rotation. The trend is clearly up, and yesterday’s close above 6961.75 cemented that the highest untested daily leg down has now been reclaimed.
We continue to drift sideways this morning, accepting value at an even higher level. The Daily at 7003.75 played yesterday for a nice reaction and we closed below it — but in the overnight session, we have pushed above it and are currently sitting directly at this level. This will be our major above/below pivot for the day. We also have an Options Pivot at 7001.00 and a Call Wall at 7011.00 that are creating a tight range around current price. The 26-point overnight session tells us the market is coiled — we will break out from one direction or the other today.
