S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Above the 7608 Barometer & The 7626 ATH Push
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 3rd, breaking down the 7608.50 above-below barometer, the 7597.00 first buy, and the 7626.50 all-time-high trigger.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 3rd, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plans as 7608.50 was our break-above resistance lid. Shortly after the open, price pushed directly above that, sending SPX to all-time highs and ES nearly making an all-time high — missing it by one single tick. It was a beautiful display of trade-plan amazingness, as the breakout above 7608.50 paid almost 20 points in straight-line fashion, making it an easy score for trade plan subscribers. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this awesome setup — it was super clean and your day ended early.
As we come into the morning, prices moved sideways overnight in a tight range of only 26.5 points, but we maintained above our 7608.50 significant Four-Hour. This was our break-above level yesterday and will be important to hold today, as we will be using it for our above/below context level. Currently we sit above this barometer, hovering less than 20 points below all-time highs.
📬 IMPORTANT — CHECK YOUR SPAM FOLDER! I’ve been sending out follow-ups and touch-up emails to all subscribers, as well as everyone subscribed to the SPX Brief — and I can clearly see a lot of these are landing in your spam box and not getting opened. Please check your spam/junk folder for emails from rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com, and mark them as “Not Spam” so they continue to land in your inbox going forward. There is valuable information in those emails that I don’t want you to miss!
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Today is a news-fueled day with multiple Red Tag events. We have ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change at 8:15 AM before the open, and ISM Services PMI at 10:00 AM — thirty minutes after the cash open. Expect a pre-market shake from the ADP print and another shake after the open from ISM. The volatility should help us finally get a move outside of this range.
Volume: Today should be driven by data — the 8:15 AM ADP and 10:00 AM ISM Services prints will bring the volume and volatility we have been missing in this multi-day balance. Trade around the prints with care and let the dust settle before engaging.
Range: Overnight range was a tight 26.5 points, with price moving sideways while holding above the 7608.50 barometer. Given the news on the schedule, expect the realized range to expand from here — this is not a day where the overnight range will be a reliable cap. We have an Expected range of 56.5 points and a Current range of 26.5 points leaving 30 points potential move above or below the overnight highs and lows
Gamma: Positive Gamma. Our gamma flip level is still located at 7500.00, underneath the major structure that is currently holding the all-time highs. Dealers continue to hedge to the upside.
Trend: Up on every timeframe — Four-Hour, Daily, Weekly, and One-Hour. We are still very much pointed to the upside and very much in a buy-the-dip regime, with no reason to be looking otherwise. That said, with the amount of headlines coming out today, we should be cautious and let the dust settle before engaging.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sideways Price Acceptance Above the 7608 Barometer
We have been moving up for 9 weeks straight — nine green weekly candles — and we continue to move in a sideways yet upward fashion. The pattern: rally to the upside, move sideways, accept value, then push up once again. Right now we are firmly in the price-acceptance phase, as price seems to be accepting these areas, holding these ranges for days at a time. ES is still pointed up on all timeframes and truly looks like it is accumulating above the 7608.50 for another potential move higher. However, this is a difficult buy area, as 7608.50 was tested yesterday in the overnight session. We will be using 7608.50 as our above/below barometer for what price may do this morning, and given our current location with reasons to believe ES ultimately tries to follow SPX’s lead into a new all-time high, our lean defaults to the long side. But being directly back in the middle of yesterday’s value area and Monday’s range makes it once again difficult to determine an initial direction off the jump — edges are in the edges.
