S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: A Fragile Market, PCE Risk & The 7492 Ceiling
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 25th, breaking down the 7492.50 make-or-break ceiling, the 7458.50 / 7453.00 momentum floor, and the VIX 18.19 midpoint pivot.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, June 25th, and we come off another unbelievable, absolute show-stopper of a day in the trade plan. We had the short nailed — which was also the high of the day — at 7492.50, only for price to fall well over 80 points to play our 7410.00 long. That long paid over 40 points, then we swept the lows one more time and played our 4-Hour leg at the lows around 7404.50 with perfection, sending us right back up 85 points into the close. A spectacular display of trade plan perfection, and so many subscribers banked serious cash. Yesterday was one for the history books — congratulations to everyone who took advantage. It was a unique situation where Negative Gamma once again paid massive dividends in combination with the professional trade plan.
As we come into the day, ES is up 51 points at the time of this writing — and almost all of that was done late yesterday into the close on the back of MU earnings, which outperformed and dragged the market higher. Is it a sustainable move? I’m not sure. We’re once again balancing, sitting right at the top of the value area of both Tuesday and yesterday after closing directly at Tuesday’s point of control — dead in the middle of balance, which makes direction extremely difficult to pick. Here’s the key: we’ve wiped most of our support, and we have only ONE major resistance level above us. That makes this an extremely fragile market.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We DO have Red Tag news this morning, pre-market at 8:30 a.m., and it’s a big one — Core PCE Index (an inflation print) plus final GDP. This is guaranteed to give us a move, so respect it.
Volume: Relative Volume is extremely low at negative 35% as participants wait for the news to hit the wire. Don’t be fooled — given the seriousness of the Red Tag event, low volume does NOT mean we won’t meet our range expectations. In Negative Gamma, anything is possible.
Range: Expected range of 94 points. We’ve already moved 39 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 55 points in the tank above or below the overnight high or low.
Gamma: We are firmly in Negative Gamma territory, and the gamma flip has moved all the way up to 7625 — dealers are still very much hedging to the downside. The options skew is heavily to the put side; there is very little for me to work with on the call-wall side, as we are mostly puts today. That creates opportunities in BOTH directions.
Trend: We are still down on ALL time frames — we have not gained on the Daily, the Weekly, or even the 1-Hour. Combined with Negative Gamma, that gives us a clear downside lean and a very fragile state. That said, all this downside pressure can also spring a squeeze back up into our untested levels, so keep both directions in mind.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Fragile Balance & Wiped-Out Support
We are down on all time frames with Negative Gamma leaning us lower, and the bigger issue is that we’ve wiped out most of the significant support beneath us — that makes this market extremely fragile and primed for a sharp push down if the bulls can’t break overhead. Yesterday’s profile tells the story: we had a massive balance build on Tuesday, opened inside yesterday’s range, peaked above Tuesday’s high, then smacked all the way down and swept Tuesday’s low for an insane range. As we sit here this morning, we closed right at Tuesday’s point of control and are balancing again at the top of the combined value area — squarely in the middle of balance. We’ll have to lean on our significant Dailies to read the momentum shift from here.
