S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: 3-Week Balance & Downside Momentum
A detailed ES & VIX plan for Feb 24th, breaking down the 6857.25 Monthly Pivot, the 6903.00 Momentum Shift, and the 6794.50 Liquidity Sweep.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, February 24th, and we come off another volatile day yesterday that was spawned by Friday’s Trump tariffs rejection by the Supreme Court and fears of AI being overblown and valued in today’s marketplace.
Our Weekend Review gave us significant levels to be important as far as Above/Below because Friday ended fairly bullish. However, starting as soon as the market opened on Sunday, we dumped over 40 points in the overnight session, essentially breaking our structure immediately that was given in the outlook on Sunday for a continued bullish move. Getting back underneath our significant Weekly at 6903.00 and the Daily at 6912.75 put us back below the previous Weekly Value Area High, sucked us back into this week’s value, and back underneath resistance which was extremely significant. We continue to lose support on the 4-Hour timeframe once again yesterday as it lost the support that led to the major close on Friday. This is again another sign of weakness as we continue to sit and balance in a massive 3-week range.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today, but we do have President Trump speaking at 9:00 PM EST tonight. That should be interesting, as I’m sure the market will anticipate what he has to say perhaps even today.
Volume: Relative Volume is +3.5%. This means we have average participants in the marketplace today and we could expect a true range expectancy to be met.
Range: Expected range of 76 points. We have moved currently 29 points in the overnight session thus far, leaving us approximately 46 points left above or below the overnight high or low. This gives us a pretty substantial range today.
Gamma: We are currently still in Negative Gamma territory, as the Negative Gamma flip is still well above 7000.00 and closer to All-Time Highs. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, meaning we will have more volatility today and can expect moves both ways with a potential lean to the downside.
Trend: Downside. We cannot gain on the Daily timeframe and we lost on the 4-Hour timeframe once again yesterday.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Sideways Distribution
Price is what I would call distributing in a sideways fashion, and we will at some point break out of this, but in which direction is hard to say as of right now. I am currently still leaning to the downside, as many of you know from weeks prior. We sit now below our 6903.00 Weekly, below our major 6883.00 Weekly, and even now below our massive Monthly at 6857.25. We still have current momentum to the downside. Support is extremely thin for untested levels below us, so unless we get a nice sweep play, I do not expect too much support down here to actually play to the upside.
