S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: 17 Green Candles & The 7359 Last Stand 1-Hour Buy
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 7th, breaking down the 7410.50 Globex all-time high target, the 7359.00 prime 1-hour leg up, and the VIX 17.44 monthly tiebreaker.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, May 7th, and we came off another crazy long yesterday as the indices continued to squeeze. We had an unprecedented rally since Monday — we were able to spot the bottom at 7200.00 on ES as well as the Daily level on SPX at 7173.00, and we have marched higher ever since. We knew that all-time highs were in our cards, but they have really taken price discovery to a new level. As of the time of this writing, we have 17 positive green four-hour candles leading us in all-time high price discovery mode. As the indices continue to push higher coming into NFP on Friday, the bulls have once again taken control and left the bears in the dust.
We have continued to move higher once again today. We have no reason to believe anything else is going to change. We have had the most insane push since Monday, and as much as we may not like this rally, we have to believe it will continue because we have no reason to believe otherwise. The market is essentially pricing in everything for all positive news — the upcoming NFP and the potential alleviation of the Iran conflict halt — and we have no idea where this rally stops for now.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM — not a Red Tag event, but given it is the only news event after this massive push to the highs, we should certainly take it into consideration. This could provide a shake. We also have a large NFP number tomorrow on Friday that the market is pricing in.
Volume: Relative Volume is essentially flat at -3% this morning, which means our expected range could indeed be accurate. With no major dampening or amplification, the calculated range should hold true.
Range: Expected range of 71 points. We have a total range so far of 33.5 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 38 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high or low. Given the fairly small overnight range of less than 20 points — well below our expected range — we can expect a breakout above or below the overnight high or low today, as this is usually fitting after a small tight overnight session.
Gamma: Positive Gamma territory remains. The Gamma flip level is all the way down at our significant inflection point at 7200.00, giving us a strong push to the upside and showing dealers are clearly in control hedging to the long side. This is reinforcement of the upside bias.
Trend: Upside on every timeframe. We have not lost on the Daily, Weekly, or four-hour timeframes — they all continue to point to the upside. We are in price discovery mode with no upside structure to speak of as far as targets. We have no idea how far this can go. All we know is that this is a buy-the-dip mode until proven otherwise.
🧠 Current Market Context
The 17-Candle Squeeze & The Need for Lower-Timeframe Support
Since Monday, we have had the most unprecedented rally — 17 positive green four-hour candles in a row leading us into all-time high price discovery mode. We have talked about how these bullish runs work: we push hard to the upside for a few days, then continue to move sideways to accept value, and ultimately once value is accepted, push higher again. Now after this massive push, we can expect a potential sideways move as we continue to accept value in these new ranges. Yesterday we closed well above the value area high and almost at the highs of the day, giving us an extremely bullish stance.
Because we have had two massive gap ups over the past week since Monday, our support is actually limited to one-hour timeframe levels — four-hour and Daily levels have not had the opportunity to form. With this being said, we must focus on one-hour levels for support and trust the fact that we need to look for liquidity sweeps and reclaims to act as important triggers for long-side continuation. Please don’t get this twisted: we are extremely elevated, and I do think we could rotate slightly, but that does not mean this market is a short. We have made an all-time high in Globex at 7410.50 — this will be our upside target today as cash session players do not like to leave Globex levels untested.
