Crude is doing exactly what we expected. We came off that strong weekly/monthly structure and ripped nearly $10 off the lows—textbook. But let’s not confuse a clean bounce for a trend reversal just yet.

We’ve got some work to do before this market becomes truly bullish again. Higher timeframes like the monthly and weekly haven’t reclaimed anything meaningful. The 4H has made progress, but we’re still in a reactive zone, and any push higher should be viewed as a potential test of broken structure—not necessarily the start of a new uptrend.

So here’s how I’m seeing it going into the week:

🔼 Key Resistance and Targets Above:

These zones are stacked with inefficiencies, unfilled gaps, and poor highs that likely attract price if buyers stay in control.

$63.65 – $63.68: Huge above/below level. It’s held multiple times and should be treated as a line in the sand.
$64.27 – $64.43: Stacked weekly and daily levels. If we push into this zone, expect reactions.
$65.17 – $65.58: That’s the upper edge of a TPO gap. If we clear resistance above, this is my first major target.
$66.82 – $69.03: Big open-air gap. These are inefficient prices, and they will attract action at some point.
$67.00 – $69.14: Extended upside zone that includes major levels from previous highs. Not out of the question if bulls stay aggressive.

🔽 Support Zones and Where I’m Interested in Longs

Lots of strong structure below. If we rotate down, I’m watching these areas closely for signs of buyers stepping in.

$62.97 – $63.03: Daily/weekly TPO singles + untested monthly. Solid structure—expect a reaction here.
$62.15: Daily that’s been tested hard—it's less attractive now but still relevant for context.
$60.89: Last week's open. Played well. This level still has weight.
$60.67: 4H level + two-week POC. Love this zone for potential longs if we rotate lower.
$60.44: This is it—the “we’re wrong” level. Below this, the bullish case falls apart.
$60.03 – $60.72: Major support cluster with confluence across timeframes. If we flush, I want to see this area respected.
$59.57 – $59.94: Final line of defense. If we’re down here, the tone of the market has shifted heavily bearish.

🎯 How I’m Approaching the Week

Right now, I’m treating this move up as a reactive bounce. I do think we could press higher into one of those gaps—but I’m being cautious. I want to be long from strong structure only, and if we push into resistance, I’ll be watching closely for signs of rejection or exhaustion.

If we drop into $60.67 – $60.89, that’s a spot I’ll be watching for a long setup. And if we break above $64.43, I’m targeting the gap fill into $65.58. But let me be clear—if we lose $60.44, I’m out. Simple as that. No guessing, no holding and hoping.

There’s opportunity on both sides right now, but only if you stay patient and let price come to the areas that matter. Don’t chase. Wait for your setup.

Let me know in the comments if you’re trading crude this week or sitting it out. I’ll continue updating levels and commentary as needed.

Ryan Bailey’s S&P Edge

🛢️ Crude Oil Price Outlook: Key Support and…