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Here’s what we got into:

• Why I don’t trade rollover week. When the contract splits, you don’t know who’s controlling which book. Levels that should hold on one contract play perfectly on the other. I’d rather step back and touch grass than guess. Bubba adds a piece of floor history most people have never heard: there used to be a dedicated rollover pit.

• The call he already got right. Last time we sat down, Bubba said the 10-year hits 5% before the end of September. We’re through it. Now he’s saying three more hikes this year and a real shot at 6%.

• FOMC, a hawkish new chair, and what it means. My take on why they raise before they cut, the hot PPI print, and what an extra 50 basis points actually does to a new borrower’s monthly payment.

• The 2007 echo. No-doc loans are back. Builders in Vegas are doing 0% down. Credit card delinquencies, auto defaults, mortgage defaults — we walk the numbers. Bubba’s read: this looks like 2001 and 2008 combined.

• $100 in 1913 is worth 2.6 cents today. That’s the whole currency debasement argument in one number.

• The Bitcoin plan. My level, my target, and why I want coins I can hand to my kid. Plus Bubba’s story about the kid who worked for him buying $20 a week under a dollar — and what he walked away with.

• The trade that hasn’t had a losing close in over a year. Bubba’s neutral options structure — losers around a couple hundred bucks, one Oracle trade that printed $10,000. He gives the 30,000-foot view.

• Why he’s anti-wheel. I run it, he hates it, and he offered to show me a better version with less margin. Plus why Rho suddenly matters again.

Hit play.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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There are no trade plans this week.

Not a reduced schedule. Not a lighter version. None.

I’m pausing every paid subscription on S&P Edge from today, Sunday, September 13, through Friday, September 18. Nobody gets charged for the week. If you’re on the annual plan, a week gets added to the end of your term — you don’t lose a day of what you paid for.

I want to walk you through exactly why, because the reasoning is worth more to you than the announcement is.

Four times a year, the market hands us a legitimate reason to stand down. This is one of them.

I’ve been trading for twenty years, ten of them in ES specifically. I don’t take weeks off because I’m tired. I take them when the instrument stops behaving like the instrument my process was built around.

That’s rollover.

Rollover Isn’t a Symbol Change

Most traders treat the roll as housekeeping. Update the chart, change the contract month in the order ticket, get on with the day.

That’s the surface of it.

What’s actually happening underneath is that the entire liquidity base of the S&P 500 futures market picks itself up and moves from one contract to another — and for a stretch of days, it lives in both places at once.

Here’s the schedule, and I want you to see the dates, because “rollover week” gets thrown around loosely and the specifics are what make the case.

CME’s own convention sets the equity index roll date as the Monday prior to the third Friday of the expiration month. For September 2026, that’s tomorrow — Monday, September 14. After that date, the customary practice is to treat the second-nearest expiration as the lead month, precisely because the expiring contract is walking into a thinner market.

But the street doesn’t wait on the exchange. The working convention on most desks is roughly eight days ahead of expiration, which pulled real size into ESZ26 — the December contract — on Thursday and Friday, September 10 and 11.

And ESU26 doesn’t disappear on either of those dates. It trades until it cash-settles at Friday morning’s special opening quotation on September 18 — which happens to be quarterly expiration, when index futures and index options come off the board together.

Add it up. Some of the volume left last week. The official lead-month designation flips tomorrow. The old contract is still breathing until Friday’s opening print.

For most of this week, the book is split in two.

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Why a Split Book Breaks Levels

Everything I publish is levels-based. A level is only worth the volume that built it and the volume that has to come back and defend it. Split that volume across two contracts and you’ve weakened both halves of that equation.

Two specific problems show up.

The offset. ES trades at a spread to the cash index, and the spread between the September and December contracts is not a rounding error — it’s driven largely by the dividends expected out of S&P 500 constituents between the two expirations. A level that mattered on ESU26 does not sit at the same printed number on ESZ26. Every reference has to be shifted before it means anything. And if you’re working off SPX cash while I’m quoting futures, that translation gets one layer messier still.

The thin book. Volume spread across two contracts isn’t concentrated in either one. Auction structure that would normally be clean gets ragged at the edges. The reaction you’d expect at a level shows up late, early, or three handles past where it should. Fills that would normally be precise start slipping.

Neither of those problems is dramatic. Both of them are exactly the kind of thing that turns a good level into an expensive one.

The Honest Part

I’m not going to tell you the market is untradeable this week. It isn’t. People will trade it, and plenty of them will do fine. Rollover is a mechanical event with a published schedule, not a crisis.

So let me draw the distinction precisely, because it matters.

I’m not saying this week is dangerous. I’m saying I can’t deliver the standard I charge for.

When you pay for a daily trade plan from me, what you’re actually buying is a set of levels I’d take with real size in my own accounts. This week, I’d be publishing levels I’d hesitate to trade myself — not wrong, just softer, with more room for the market to be sloppy around them.

I’d rather hand you nothing and tell you why than hand you something thinner and hope you don’t notice the difference.

That’s the entire decision.

What’s Dark, What’s Live

Dark this week. Daily trade plans — nothing published Monday through Friday. The post-market breakdown stream is off as well; it’s back Monday, September 21, at the usual 5pm ET slot.

Still live. The Discord stays open and the live trading room runs as normal. Community doesn’t require a clean roll to be worth showing up for — and honestly, watching a roll unfold together is its own education. If you’ve never paid close attention to one, this is the week to sit in and watch what happens to the tape.

Still running. EmergentEdge keeps trading across my personal accounts. A system doesn’t need conviction about a level. It executes its rules whether or not I like what the book looks like.

What I’d Do With the Week

Take it off. Actually take it off.

Pull up your journal and go back through your last quarter. Tag your losers by setup and see which one keeps showing up. Go find the trades you sized correctly and the ones you didn’t, and be honest about which is which. That work is worth more than five sessions of guessing at levels in a contract that’s changing hands underneath you.

But I know some of you can’t sit still. I’ve been that trader. So if you’re going to be in front of the screens anyway, at least change what you’re risking.

Don’t burn your own capital proving you can trade a split book.

Go take a Lucid evaluation account instead and use code VICI at checkout. Your downside is capped at the cost of the evaluation rather than your own trading account, and the upside is that you come out the other side of this week funded — right as the market consolidates back into a single clean contract and starts behaving like itself again. Small, defined risk against a real payoff, in the one week where risking your own money makes the least sense.

Lucid is the firm I trade with and the one I’ve put my own payouts through.

Read the rule book before you fund anything. The drawdown mechanics matter far more than the headline account size, and that’s where most traders get caught — not on the entry, on the rule they didn’t read.

Use the button below and the code to save up to 50% at checkout !

CHECK CODE = "VICI"

Back Sunday

The Weekend Review publishes Sunday, September 20 — our first day back and the setup for the first full week post-roll. Monday the 21st we’re live again with a single lead contract, consolidated volume, and levels I’ll stand behind.

Take the week. Come back sharp.

Discipline isn’t only how you take the trade. Sometimes it’s whether you take the week.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

Most of you reading this will never buy a Treasury bond. You’ll never pull up the 10-year yield on a Friday afternoon. You’ll never care what a term premium is or who bought the last 30-year auction.

You’re paying for all of it anyway.

The 10-year closed Friday at 4.955%. The 30-year sits at 5.362% after touching 5.373% on Thursday — the highest that bond has yielded since 2007. Every headline you’ve seen this week is about the 5% line on the 10-year and whether the Fed hikes on Wednesday.

That’s the wrong thing to watch, and it’s the wrong reason to care.

The bond market isn’t forecasting a crash. It’s repricing the cost of everything you finance — and that bill arrives whether or not anything breaks.

Start with what isn’t broken

I want to lead with the counterargument, because the doom version of this story is everywhere right now and most of it doesn’t survive contact with the data.

Core inflation — the measure that strips out food and energy, the one the Fed actually steers by — came in at 2.4% year over year through August. That’s the lowest core reading since March 2021. Shelter inflation, the stickiest component in the entire index, eased to 3.0% from 3.2%.

The volatility complex agrees. The VIX closed Friday at 15.84, down 11.2% on the day. Bond volatility, measured by MOVE, sat at 74.7 — dormant. High yield credit spreads were at 270 basis points as of September 10, which puts them in the richest decile of their entire history against a long-run median closer to 450. Investment grade is near 80. BBB is around 100, in the neighborhood of 25-year tights.

And the buyers are showing up. Last week’s $39 billion 10-year auction drew 2.71 times the paper on offer — the strongest demand since 2019.

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,656.98, roughly 2% under its 52-week high of 7,816.70, after snapping a four-day losing streak. Barclays raised its index target to 7,950.

That is not a market in distress. Anyone telling you the bond market is pricing systemic failure needs to explain why every single gauge that would confirm it is asleep.

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So why is the long end screaming?

Here’s the part that actually matters, and it’s the part the “sticky inflation” narrative gets backwards.

Headline CPI held at 3.4% in August, up 0.4% on the month. Gasoline rose 3.9% and accounted for more than a third of that entire monthly increase. Gas is up 27.4% year over year. Fuel oil is up 52%.

Strip the energy out and you get 2.4% — a five-and-a-half-year low.

This isn’t broad inflation reaccelerating. This is an energy shock sitting on top of a disinflating core. Those two things look identical on a headline print and behave nothing alike.

The long end is selling off for reasons that have very little to do with your grocery bill and a lot to do with supply. AI companies have issued north of $1.5 trillion in new corporate debt this year, all of it competing for the same buyers. Pressure on the yen has driven Tokyo to repeatedly sell Treasuries to defend the currency. The Treasury Department tripled its buyback of 10- to 20-year paper to $6 billion — which tells you Washington is actively working to suppress long-end yields, not that it’s succeeding.

The 10-year closed 2026 at its low of 3.961% on February 27. It’s added about a full percentage point since. The old reference everyone is staring at is the October 2023 peak near 5.021%.

Let me be clear about something. The Fed sets the overnight rate. The bond market sets the 10-year. Those are different markets with different buyers, and right now the second one is doing tightening work the first one never authorized.

The price of money, one year apart

The oil shock is the inflation

WTI settled at $100.05 on Friday, down 2.4%. Brent settled at $104.61, down 2.8%. Both still finished the week up roughly 9 to 10% after a wave of US-Iran strikes in the Persian Gulf.

Since the war began at the end of February, WTI is up 52.9%. It’s up 78.5% on the year.

At the pump, that’s $4.15 a gallon nationally. Diesel pushed past $6 for the first time on record — and diesel is the one that matters most, because diesel is a tax on every truck, every train, every barge, every delivery, and every head of lettuce that rides on one.

Now look at what that’s doing inside the equity market, because this is the cleanest evidence in the entire piece.

Energy is the only S&P sector up over the past month. It’s up 43% on the year. Consumer discretionary is down 6.5% since mid-August.

That’s not a rotation. That’s a transfer. Money that would have been spent on restaurants, travel, furniture, and cars is going into the tank instead. The market is already pricing the handoff.

Consumers see it too. University of Michigan sentiment printed 47.8, a miss. One-year inflation expectations came in at 4.6%.

And then there’s the piece of data that should make everyone slow down: the IEA cut its global oil demand outlook to a 2.5 million barrel-per-day contraction for 2026 — the largest annual decline since the pandemic. Higher prices and tighter supply are destroying demand. That is stagflationary pressure in print, not in theory.

Now the honest part. This whole setup is one headline away from unwinding. Oil pulled back Friday on reports that Gulf Cooperation Council diplomats are meeting their Iranian counterpart in Oman to discuss a temporary arrangement for Hormuz shipping. Goldman’s scenario of Brent above $120 next year is explicitly not their base case. A credible ceasefire takes the war premium out fast, and the inflation problem largely goes with it.

I’m not going to tell you which way that breaks. Nobody knows. But you should understand that the entire bearish macro case rests on a geopolitical outcome, not an economic one.

What it actually costs you

This is where the abstraction ends.

Housing. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed at 6.76% for the week ending September 10, up from 6.71% the week before and 6.35% a year ago. The 15-year went to 6.09% from 5.50%.

On a $400,000 loan, principal and interest at 6.76% runs about $2,597 a month. At last year’s 6.35%, that same loan was $2,489. You are paying $108 more every month — $1,296 a year — for the identical house at the identical price.

Against a 3% note from 2021, it’s $1,686 versus $2,597. Nine hundred eleven dollars a month. Over the full term, $534,939 in interest instead of $207,110.

From here, every additional 50 basis points costs roughly $134 a month on that same $400,000.

Here’s why the squeeze feels slow instead of sudden. Your neighbor with the 3% mortgage isn’t paying 6.76% — he’s insulated until he moves. The corporation that locked in 3.5% debt isn’t refinancing until maturity. The damage doesn’t hit on the day the 10-year prints 5%. It hits one borrower at a time, as each one rolls into the new regime. I’ve watched this movie from the floor and from a screen, and the mistake people make every cycle is assuming that because nothing broke this week, nothing is breaking. Duration matters more than the peak.

Cars. Experian put the average new-car APR at 6.39% in Q1 2026, with the average new-vehicle payment at $770. Used cars run 11.43% and $531. On the average new-vehicle loan of about $42,332 over five years, a super-prime borrower at 4.55% pays $790 a month. At the 6.39% average it’s $826. At 11.43% it’s $930. Same car. Different credit file.

Cards. This is the one that moves immediately, because card APRs float. Bankrate’s national average sat at 19.56% in late August. The Fed’s own G.19 data has accounts assessed interest at 21.52%. Average bankcard debt per borrower is $6,519, against $1.25 trillion in total card balances and $18.8 trillion in household debt.

Put those two together and you get the double squeeze. You’re paying more at the pump, and you’re paying 20% on the card you used to cover it.

And the other side. Savers are finally getting paid. T-bills, money market funds, CDs, and newly issued bonds are throwing off real yield for the first time in a generation. A retiree sitting on cash with no debt is winning this environment outright.

Same yield. Opposite outcomes. A 62-year-old with a paid-off house and $400,000 in T-bills and a 28-year-old trying to buy a first home are living in two completely different economies right now, and the only variable separating them is which side of the debt they’re on.

What I’m watching into Wednesday

The FOMC decision lands Wednesday. Markets have roughly 90% priced for a quarter-point hike off the current 3.50% to 3.75% range, which would be the first move of this cycle. Chair Warsh set that repricing in motion at Jackson Hole.

But the Fed decision isn’t the tell. The tell is whether the confirming markets start agreeing with the bond market.

Right now they don’t. The 10-year is near 5% and credit spreads are near record tights. MOVE is at 74.7 and the VIX is under 16. That divergence is the single most important thing on the board. One of those two signals is wrong.

If yields press through 5% and spreads stay pinned, volatility stays dormant, and energy leadership fades as oil cools, that’s the constructive version — the feared level failed to produce stress, and relief tends to be violent.

If the 10-year holds above 5%, the 30-year keeps making new highs, and high yield starts widening while MOVE wakes up — that’s when yields stop being background noise and become the dominant factor in every ES session.

That’s exactly why the 10-year and the 30-year live on the side screen next to the ES levels in the live room every morning before the open. The daily trade plans map where price is likely to react. The macro tells you whether those levels are going to hold when they get there. You need both, and this week you need them more than usual.

The number everyone is watching is 5%. It’s a round number on a screen. It’s not a circuit breaker, it’s not a recession trigger, and it isn’t a policy threshold for anybody.

What it is, is the price of money — and the price of money has gone up about a full point this year while core inflation went down.

Watch the reason, not the level. The level tells you where we are. The reason tells you what happens next.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everybody. Today is Friday, September 11th, and it is our last day before rollover. Yesterday was an absolutely phenomenal day in the trade plan, as we came down and held our significant area at 7596.50 / 7600, just as the prophecy foretold. We have held here all night, just like we discussed in the post-market breakdown, and we are currently up 42 points at the time of this writing.

As many of you know, I have been talking about this area for quite some time, including making it very clear yesterday that this was a do-or-die spot and that more than likely we would pop from here. As you can clearly see, we have done just that in the overnight session, stabilizing price at our 7596.50 / 7600 level last night. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the amazing day yesterday, as our level held. I preached about this spot for days — not only in the post-market breakdown, but in the Weekend Reviews, and of course in the inner circle — letting everyone know exactly how important this area is, and that if they choose to hold here, it could send us all the way back up to 7701.25 and then ultimately back to 7800.

This really is the big spot that absolutely will define exactly whether we continue to push lower or continue to push much higher and potentially retest the highs. This was an unbelievable call. Even last night we were able to make this call in the post-market breakdown and tell people exactly step by step what they should expect, which is coming to fruition. Let’s get into the trade plan so that we can do it all over again.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have big Red Tag news this morning with Core CPI and Preliminary Consumer Sentiment readings. That is guaranteed to provide a shake this morning.

• Volume: This has given us a Relative Volume increase of 54%, meaning we could add another 32 points to our expected range today — which could make perfect sense with this massive news we have coming pre-market. Quick math: that means we could have approximately 44 points above or below the overnight highs or lows today, providing us a really nice range to play in.

• Range: Expected range of 65 points. We have moved 53.5 points in the overnight session already, leaving us approximately 13 points above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment.

• Gamma: Our gamma flip level sits around 7750, well above us at the top of the resistance map.

• Trend: We are down on all time frames, technically speaking — the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour. However, we are still up on the Weekly time frame, which makes this a perfect buy spot for us as we wait for the smaller time frames to catch up.

🧠 Current Market Context

The High Time Frame Has the Wind at Its Back

We have been talking for quite some time about the significant area located at 7600, and I have made it very clear that as long as this high time frame area holds — which is the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily spot — this could potentially be the bottom and propel us back higher. You must remember that even though we are down on the Daily and 4-Hour time frames, we are still up on the Weekly.

Knowing that even though we are down on multiple time frames, we have now reclaimed a very significant spot, and we will continue to look for longs this morning until we move below yesterday’s significant area. They have created plenty of support for us to play in the overnight session. However, our process is still technically pointing us down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour time frames, meaning we need to be cautious and can expect rotations in both directions.

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Thursday was a windshield day — but it didn’t start that way. I wrote the trade plan with ES down about 12 points, walked the dog, and came back to a 50-point flush bearing down on the 7600 zone we’ve been waiting on since last week.

My first long there got stopped. My second long, off the same level, paid.

Here’s what I got into on today’s breakdown:

The stop-out and the re-entry. Same level, two very different outcomes. I show exactly what had to be reclaimed before I’d press the button a second time — and why I passed on a deeper level that played perfectly, one I fished off a chart from two months back.

Three products to trade one. We trade ES, but SPX and VIX did the steering today. The SPX weekly at 7582 marked the low. The daily at 7609 capped the high — three separate times. VIX ripped through its 16.51 weekly, tagged 18.06, then chopped around the 17.44 monthly pivot into the close. That pivot is the tell for Friday.

A rare balance day. The session never broke its initial balance high or low. By my numbers, that happens on roughly 3–5% of days.

The do-or-die zone. This support is the lid on a 10-week balance range. Four big red days rarely V-bottom — they base first. Hold it overnight and I’m looking for a squeeze. Lose it, and we risk getting sucked back into that range. I lay out the 100-point downside path — plus the reclaim level that launched a 200-point run last week and could flip everything again.

Why I won’t trade the CPI print. August CPI hits at 8:30 ET. Even if my setup is sitting right there, I’m not touching it before the cash open.

Two traders getting their flowers. Shoutouts to two room members stacking funded accounts the patient way.

Heads-up on next week. It’s rollover week, and I’m taking it off. Friday’s trade plan is the last one until the following week, this was the final breakdown until then, and trade plan subscriptions will be paused so no one gets charged. The Inner Circle Discord stays open.

Friday could be a massive day in either direction.

Hit play. Mark your levels. Be ready at 9:30.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everybody. Today is Thursday, September 10th. Yesterday was a fairly muted day, as we balanced sideways most of the day and had a small push down while buyers and sellers were extremely muted coming off the holiday. As we start to regain our footing and traction here, we are currently moving down in the overnight session, setting up for some interesting action today.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have Red Tag news at 8:30 — Core PPI, PPI month-over-month, and Unemployment Claims. It is for sure going to be a big one this morning, and we can expect a shake without a doubt.

• Volume: Relative Volume is pretty flat this morning, coming into the day at only a positive 5%, meaning we will more than likely get our expected range today.

• Range: Expected range of 63.75 points. We have currently moved 37.5 points, leaving us approximately 25.25 points above or below the overnight high or low.

• Trend: Downside lean. We are still technically pointed up on the Daily time frame, but just barely — it almost lost yesterday on ES by a few ticks on the cash session, and it ultimately has lost support on the ETH side. We are down on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour time frames, telling us that we are currently pointing to the downside and could potentially sweep the leg lows on our current move to the high.

🧠 Current Market Context

Extreme Volatility Into a Red Tag Print

We are setting up for some extreme volatility today, as this move down could bring us into our major support — and if that doesn’t hold, then the indices will find themselves in major trouble.

ES finds itself at the time of this writing down 14 points, as we continue to drift lower in the overnight session, with price unable to gain on the lower time frames. We essentially held yesterday at the close the previous all-time high, which we talked about at 7648.75. This is a massive above/below pivot for us today, because the previous all-time high was clearly significant for a reason, and we will continue to mark this and keep it on our chart as a significant above/below level. It will be that once again today, as we actually have massive resistance directly above this area that we want to keep track of.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everyone. Today is Wednesday, September 9th. We’ve come off an unreal day in the trade plan, where we talked about the massive support located at 7686 through 7673, which came into play yesterday perfectly, as this area got three amazing bounces that paid subscribers handsomely.

Yesterday’s inner circle crew continued to light up the scoreboard, and we had many trade plan holders reach out to thank me for such an amazing plan. People were ecstatic in the post-market breakdown. We had a lot of successful traders yesterday due to the Weekend Review’s plan, and we absolutely nailed it. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday — as we come into the morning, we’re going to do it all over again.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We have only President Trump speaking at 9:15 this evening.

• Volume: We have an increased Relative Volume of 48%, meaning we have approximately 47.5 points today above or below the overnight highs or lows, giving us plenty of room for range extension today.

• Range: Expected range of 65 points. We have already moved 46.75 points this morning, leaving us approximately 18 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment — which is exactly why the relative volume number matters so much this morning.

• Gamma: We are currently in Negative Gamma territory, as the gamma flip level has shifted all the way up to our 7750 major area up at the highs. Dealers are continuing to hedge their positions to the downside as momentum seems to increase in the overnight session, pushing us lower.

• Trend: Mixed. ES is actually still up on the Daily time frame, but has lost on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour time frames as of last night. This is a huge shift in momentum for us, as it puts us from being pointed up on all time frames to now potentially looking for rotations in both directions — as price proved this morning could be fruitful.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Last Stand for the Bulls

Yesterday we had this massive spot located at 7686 through the 7670.75 area that absolutely had to hold. We made this extremely apparent yesterday in the post-market breakdown and also in the trade plan, insinuating that as long as this area holds, this could be our path back to 7750 and ultimately our road to 7800. This area did in fact play, but it did not give us the follow-through we looked for, and unfortunately has continued to rotate down in the evening session — leaving us down 35 points at the time of this writing and putting us right back down into our lower levels of support.

This normally would be okay. However, as we’ve continued to drift to the downside, we are continuing to lose support, and now we have the massive overhead resistance that we played yesterday for the longs sitting above us. That will be an issue for the Bulls to get through and could continue to keep resistance overhead and keep us sliding to the downside.

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We called the bottom, as everybody knows, at 7622.50, and it was my call when that happened that we could easily traverse to 7800 or even all-time highs. I am still confident in that call. We have got serious support underneath us and some great confluence, and I cannot wait to show you what is up. It has just been another display of trade plan amazingness — we literally nailed the bottom, the top, and the sideways. Unbelievable. And here once again, our process is setting us up beautifully.

Today we are going to do something a little special because I am feeling frisky. I did NQ earlier, and now we are going to run SPY and SPX together, then VIX, and of course ES. And here is the headline: we are really setting up for another monster long as long as one particular area holds up. It comes down to one large major spot. Let’s get right into it.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: Today is Labor Day and nothing specific is flagged on the radar for the week ahead. Just be aware of where we are structurally coming into the open, because we are sitting right on a trigger level.

• Cross-Market: Here is something wild and very contradictory. I ran NQ earlier and NQ is actually down on all timeframes. Meanwhile, when I look at ES it looks so bullish it is insane — and SPX and SPY are up on the weekly, the daily, the four-hour, and the one-hour. Obviously I love ES for a reason, and these markets are inherently bullish anyway, which is why we usually look to that side of things as our process points us.

• Range: We had a pretty massive move up over the course of the past few months, and we have been digesting this area sideways as we potentially get ready to make another move. This is exactly the pattern I have been trying to explain in the post-market breakdowns: huge push up, go sideways and build a profile, push up, go sideways, push up, go sideways. Now we can finally see it playing out.

• VIX: We are way suppressed and it clearly looks like it wants to continue. But we are getting really close to one of our last untested supports down there, and when we are in the $13, $14, $15 handle, things can get very reactionary. Keep an eye on it.

• Trend: Up on all timeframes on ES, SPX, and SPY. Everything on these charts is telling me to buy. I do not recommend shorting if we start to take off — just try to find a place to get in. Obviously if we break that one particular area, feel free to start shorting, because at that point we will have lost support.

🧠 Current Market Context

One Spot, One Trigger, And A Very Clean Chart

I am going to say this up front because it is the whole plan: this is a killer trade plan and I have laid it all out. We basically have one spot — it is about a 12-point zone. It holds, we go to 7800. It does not, we come down. It really does not get much easier than that.

The ES weekly TPO frames it perfectly. Over here I have the weekly composite, which is actually an entire month — a big boy — and then last week’s profile. We have a really clearly defined spot at 7719.25, the Previous Weekly Value Area High: we are bullish above this on the weekly TPO, and it lines up perfectly with a four-hour and with yesterday’s point of control. This is our big trigger spot to push above. Down below, the massive area is our Previous Weekly Point of Control at 7683 — there is a lot of volume in there and it is very clearly massive support. On that huge monthly composite, we basically have a whole profile sitting right there, a huge area of volume — and if they hold it, we could easily come back up and start to fill it in, because why not? It lines up too nicely. Once we push back above 7719.25, we are cleared for takeoff all the way through 7775 and ultimately 7800. Once we get outside of that profile, we should just continue to drift up into the first spot at the big point of control and then push higher. On the daily profiles it is the same story — a beautiful daily naked point of control right in that support area, and those are usually reactionary as well. We have a weekly POC, a daily POC, and a lot of overlapping value. We just want to see it hold. And if it does not, it is obvious that this is the spot that has to do it — otherwise we come down and clean up the inefficiency below.

On SPX and SPY, look at this beautiful pattern on both. We essentially have a massive buy spot that looks really, really nice. On SPY, the main spot is the 765.75 area — a big leg down and a huge shoulder. I like it quite a bit. If you wanted to go lower, we have one more untested spot at 762, the lowest shoulder, and I actually like that area too — there is confluence down there as well — but I like the middle spot quite a bit more. The same thing applies on SPX: we have a four-hour, but ultimately I have this big weekly at 7666.63 that aligns with the big four-hour, and it is the same pattern with that big shoulder. I like this spot. We do have more support below with the 7641 daily and the 7652 daily, and I am not opposed to buying those, but I really want to see this big weekly area play — same as the SPY 765 area. I truly believe that if this area holds and we start to get back above 7691 and then reclaim 7709, we should have no problem getting up into the 7785 area. And it is pretty clear where it all goes south, and it is the same on SPY. I liked the way they lined up technically — I thought it was extremely sound.

SPX / SPY:

SPX 4HR:

SPY 4HR:

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🚨 VIX Analysis: The 14.95-15.13 Resistance Stack

VIX is way suppressed and it clearly looks like it is going to continue doing this. But we just need to be careful, because I have talked many times about how the $13, $14, and $15 handle gets very reactionary, and we are getting really close to one of our last untested supports down there.

• The Massive Resistance Stack: 14.95 through 15.13. This is a huge spot — two weeklies and a monthly stacked together. And we are already starting to sweep this low, so I can clearly see them coming up in here, finding resistance, and then coming down into the 13.60. I am not saying that is what is going to happen, but if I had to guess, I think it is highly plausible.

• The Setup Logic: If VIX pushes up into that 14.95 - 15.13 area, that is going to send ES down a little bit — and then the pullback there is obviously going to be our catapult to the highs. I hate making calls because I do not trade my opinion, but the process tells me I should be confident this is a possibility. When we hit that $15 area, watch what price does — we know that is a good spot.

• The Last Untested Weekly: 13.60. This is my last untested weekly, much lower on VIX. It is literally the leg to this high — it is the last buy. I would have a hard time believing it does not get anything, so pay attention when we come into it. It might be a good place to take profits on your longs.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are up on all timeframes and looking for the monster long. The whole plan comes down to the 7675 - 7686.50 zone — a roughly 12-point band with a four-hour on each end, the previous weekly point of control at 7683, a naked point of control, weekly support, and a massive accumulation area all stacked together. Play it and hold, then get back above 7701 for confirmation. Above that, 7719.25 / 7720 is our bullish trigger, and beyond it we deal with 7737 and 7755 on the way to the 7782.50 first major profit-taking area and ultimately 7800. Below the zone we start to get iffy, with the 7670 / 7661 dailies becoming the reclaim problem.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

THE BULLISH TRIGGER — P.W. VAH & 4-Hour Leg Down: 7719.25 - 7720.00

7720.00 (Four-Hour Leg Down), 7719.25 (Previous Weekly Value Area High).

• Context: When we started this I told you: if we get above 7719, we are probably going to continue to move higher. This is our bullish trigger, essentially. And check this out — right there at 7719.25 we also have a four-hour leg down at 7720, and it lines up with yesterday’s point of control on the weekly TPO. It is pretty obvious that if we get above this, we start to push.

• Actionable Setup: Above 7719.25 / 7720, we are cleared for takeoff through 7775 and ultimately 7800. This is the single trigger that confirms the upside continuation from the buy zone below.

The Untested Targets: 7737.00 - 7755.00

7755.00 (Untested Daily), 7737.00 (Untested Daily).

• Context: I want to correct something here, because I made a mistake on the first pass — 7737 and 7755 are not tested. So these are now targets for us rather than obstacles we have already worked through. As we start to push above 7720, these are what we have to deal with.

• Actionable Setup: Take Profits: These are profit-taking markers on the way up from the buy zone. Deal with 7737 first, then 7755, and keep the runners going toward the bigger targets above.

The First Major Profit Zone: 7775.00 - 7782.50

7782.50 (Massive Target — First Major Profit-Taking Area), 7775.00 (Takeoff Path).

• Context: We are coming off the weekly at 7622.50 — an absolutely perfect touch, plus it was off that 50-day moving average — and then we had a solid gain above 7646. I truly believe 7782.50 is going to be our first target and a massive one at that. Once above 7719.25, we are cleared through 7775 on the way here.

• Actionable Setup: Take Profits: This is the first major profit-taking area if we do continue higher. Book size here and let the rest ride toward the objective above.

The Objective: 7800.00

7800.00 (Upside Objective).

• Context: This is the call I made when we bounced off 7622.50, and I am still confident in it. This weekly just looks insanely bullish to me — it looks like we go to 7800, hit our head, do a little pullback, and end up going much, much higher.

• Actionable Setup: Treat 7800 as the primary objective for this leg. We have not lost on the weekly timeframe and we are still pointed up, which is exactly why we were able to buy that low and why it worked so well.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Confirmation Reclaim — Weekly Leg Up: 7701.00

7701.00 (Weekly Leg Up — Huge Trigger).

• Context: We had a beautiful positive green candle last week, and ultimately we have a new weekly leg up at 7701. This is going to be a huge trigger for us and I want you to really put this on your chart. They could technically play it right at the open and go up, but ultimately I think this is going to be a huge pivot line for understanding context when we start to really shift momentum to the upside.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: If we dip lower and get back above 7701, it is very bullish. That is our confirmation that we are going to push higher, and it is the first thing I want to see after the buy zone below plays and holds.

THE 12-POINT ZONE — The Spot That Decides Everything: 7675.00 - 7686.50

7686.50 (Four-Hour), 7683.00 (Previous Weekly Point of Control), 7681.00 (The Valley), 7675.50 (Four-Hour + Naked Point of Control).

• Context: This is huge support — huge. Just like I showed you on SPY and SPX, this is our massive leg down with a big shoulder right here, and we have that weekly point of control sitting inside it. On the one-hour it is even more obvious: this is the spot where we balanced all night and then took off last Thursday, and we never came back to test this area. There is a small gap fill in here, we have four-hours running across from the left, a beautiful shoulder, weekly support, and the naked point of control at 7675.50 — this is a massive accumulation area with all kinds of stuff stacked in it. I like the 7681 valley quite a bit too. It is the same look I showed you on the higher timeframes.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: I am looking for the 7686 area to play and hold, and then we want to get back above 7701 — that is our confirmation we are going to push higher. From there, 7720, then 7737 and 7755, and on toward 7782.50. We really want to see 7686 through 7675 play to continue our push higher. If this holds down here, we are going to come all the way back up. It looks super bullish to me, and we have a lot of reasons to like that spot, plus the process backing it.

• Warning: Below 7675, we start to get a little iffy — just so you know right now. If we break this particular area, feel free to start shorting, because at that point we will have lost support.

Thursday’s Held Level & The Daily Reclaim Problem: 7661.00 - 7670.00

7670.00 (Tested Daily — Thursday’s Level We Held), 7661.00 (Daily).

• Context: 7670 is Thursday’s level that we held, and 7661 sits right below it. Here is the issue: if we get below this area, we have to get back above these dailies — we have to get back above 7661 and 7670 — and you all saw how big of a support this was. So if they make it all the way down here, they may get stuck and continue to move lower. It is going to be very difficult to get back above this zone once they are below it.

• Actionable Setup: This is the structural gate below the buy zone. Losing it does not just mean a deeper pullback — it means the reclaim work becomes genuinely hard, so treat a break here with real respect.

The Lower Spot: 7649.50

7649.50 (Support).

• Context: If we push below 7670, we could come all the way down in here to the 7649.50 spot. This is a good spot. I like it.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: Watch for a reaction here on a deeper flush, but remember the reclaim problem above — getting back through the 7661 / 7670 dailies is the challenge from down here.

The Deep Levels & The Called Low: 7622.50 - 7635.50

7635.50 (Lower Support — Not My Favorite), 7626.50 (Lowest Of The Leg + 50-Day Moving Average), 7622.50 (Tested Weekly — The Called Low).

• Context: We have a few other spots lower. 7635.50 is not my favorite. But 7626.50 I think absolutely gets a reaction, as it is the lowest of the leg and it also has the 50-day moving average with it. And of course 7622.50 is the low we called perfect — it had the 50-day moving average with it and the whole nine yards. That was a killer call.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: These are the deep-flush references. 7626.50 is the one I would expect to react down here, but understand that if we are this low, the structure above has already failed and the reclaim work is significant.
  

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📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

That is it, guys — this is a killer trade plan and I have laid it all out for you. We basically have one spot, and it is about a 12-point zone: 7686.50 through 7675. It holds, we go to 7800. It does not hold, we come down. It really does not get much easier than that. That zone has a four-hour on each end, the previous weekly point of control at 7683, a naked point of control, weekly support, that beautiful shoulder, and a massive accumulation area where we balanced all night and took off last Thursday without ever coming back to test it. Play it, hold it, and get back above 7701 for confirmation. Then 7719.25 / 7720 is the bullish trigger, and above it we are cleared for takeoff through 7775 and ultimately 7800, dealing with 7737 and 7755 and taking that first major profit at 7782.50 on the way.

Now, I will say this clearly: we are up on all timeframes, so I do not recommend shorting if we start to take off. Just try to find a place to get in. Obviously if we break that particular area, feel free to start shorting, because at that point we will have lost support — and I do think we could rotate down to about 7685, which is roughly 30 to 40 points from where we are, so a little rotation into the zone is entirely possible. But if we take off from that spot, do not short.
We are going to keep a very close eye on VIX because it is going to be very important. The 14.95 - 15.13 stack of two weeklies and a monthly is the spot to watch — if VIX pops up into it, finds resistance, and rolls back toward 13.60, that pullback is our catapult to the highs. And when VIX reaches that 13.60 last untested weekly, that might be a great place to take profits on your longs.

It was a crazy week last week and I cannot wait to do it all again. It is going to be a beautiful week in the Inner Circle — I have a lot of great stuff planned, and Rob and I have some amazing products rolling out over the next month that we have been working hard on for you guys. Do not forget to sign up for the SPX Brief while spots are still open. Tomorrow is another day, I will see you in the Inner Circle, and tomorrow we will conquer the markets once again. Cheers, and have a great rest of your Labor Day.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

📊 Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7755.00|D|D
7737.00|D|D
7720.00|4HR|4H
7719.25|P.W. VAH|GD
7701.00|WK|W
7686.50|4HR|4H
7675.50|4HR|4H
7670.00|Tested D|TD
7661.00|D|D
7622.50|Tested WK|TW

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Happy Labor Day, everyone. Today is Monday, September 7th, and I am doing something special this weekend. I have a bunch of serious NQ traders in the room who keep asking me to do the levels on the Nasdaq, and I know I’m a few weeks behind on that — I sincerely apologize, and I hope this helps make up for it. This is a very rare, very special edition: a full weekend review of NQ. We are going to walk through the weekly profiles, talk about the inefficiencies sitting in the dailies, and lay out my thought process on what could potentially happen for NQ this week. Don’t get used to it — I am so focused on ES and everything else that NQ unfortunately gets the back burner sometimes — but this one is for you guys, and to be quite frank, it is a significantly different picture than ES.

Friday’s close left us literally right smack in the middle of value on a multi-week, monthly composite — NQ is truly in balance once again. We are holding on top of our big momentum shift pivot at the previous weekly point of control at 29509.00 and the 29526.00 Weekly, with the 29648.00 Daily directly overhead keeping the lid on things. The catch: after checking every timeframe, we are pointed down across the board — Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour — and the market has not gained on a single one of them yet.

A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: Markets are closed today for Labor Day. This plan is built for Tuesday’s open — I’ll see you in the room tomorrow as we get back to conquering the markets.

• Value: Friday’s close sits directly in the middle of a multi-week, monthly composite value area. NQ is truly in balance. Above the previous weekly point of control at 29509.00 we lean bullish; below it, there is a lot of room to rotate down and fill inefficiencies.

• Inefficiencies: There are some really big holes in the profile and a very thin low-volume area underneath the previous weekly POC, with singles on the daily TPO running down to 29380.00. All of this will more than likely need to get filled in.

• Trend: Down on the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour timeframes. By higher-timeframe standards we are pointed down, and the market has not gained on any timeframe. We really should still be looking for shorts on NQ until that changes — remain cautious with longs.

• Momentum Pivot: The 29526.00 Weekly leg to the all-time high and the previous weekly POC at 29509.00. Bullish above, bearish below. This is the big above/below for the week.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Monthly Composite Balance & The Lost Timeframes

Pulling up the weekly TPO, I stacked together almost an entire month of overlapping value areas so we can see where we are in the bigger picture. We closed Friday directly in the middle of that multi-week, monthly composite — truly in balance once again, even for NQ. Underneath the previous weekly point of control, I have reason to believe we can rotate lower and start to clean up the inefficiencies in this profile. There are some really big holes here and a very thin low-volume area that will more than likely need to get filled in, and it makes sense from a support perspective as well. So the previous weekly POC at 29509.00 is our big above/below: it is massive support for us, it is paired with a Weekly level at 29526.00, and together they truly represent a big momentum shift pivot for me. Above the previous weekly Value Area High, I do see price continuing to move up — however, we have daily structure directly above that at 29648.00. The previous weekly Value Area Low is really bearish below; as long as they stay above it, we continue to stay on the bullish side of things. And on the composite, the Value Area Low at 29261.00 is a spot I like, with serious daily support right there as well. Bottom line: above the previous weekly POC, we are bullish. It is not necessarily bearish underneath it, but they certainly have a lot of room to rotate down to fill this stuff in — and then, of course, those lower areas have to hold.

The daily TPO was really interesting. Last Thursday we had a massive push up, and I merged two overlapping profiles together — there is a huge area up top and then singles basically all the way down to 29380.00, an inefficiency for us to fill in. I like this a lot, because we have more daily support directly below that area, and I just think it’s quality. Once they clean these inefficiencies up, we should see some support in there, and then they could get a pop. Obviously, they could always come down and fill this area — it is possible for sure.

Now here is where NQ looks significantly different than ES. On the Weekly, we clearly closed below the leg to the high — we have lost on the Weekly timeframe. On the Daily, they had an opportunity to regain both Thursday and Friday and couldn’t get it done. They needed to close back above 29648.00 to really seal the deal for a gain on the Daily timeframe, and they did not. And when I pulled up the 4-Hour, I’ll be honest with you — at a glance I thought they had gained, and they did not. They had one, two, three, four opportunities to poke above the 4-Hour they needed to gain and could never close above it, not even by a tick. Then on the next leg, they still couldn’t close above it. So technically, right now, we are pointed down across all timeframes — Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour. Pretty unbelievable. What they did do is sweep the low underneath the daily shoulder, grab some serious liquidity, and squeeze all the way back up. That sweep was a significant momentum shift just being below it, and now they cannot gain. That is a big deal, and it is exactly why I keep telling everyone to remain cautious when looking for longs here. It doesn’t mean it can’t go up — they could certainly go up right now because they are holding this area, and I like the support structure below us a lot. But we are continuing to make new lows on the higher timeframes, we can’t gain, and that means we could absolutely roll down to our first level of support to try again — either to finally put a gain in, or to fumble and come on down.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (NQ Futures)

We are going to use the 29526.00 Weekly leg to the all-time high and the previous weekly POC at 29509.00 as our big momentum shift pivot to understand whether we are going to continue the move higher. Above that pivot, the 29648.00 Daily is what takes us up. Below that pivot, there is plenty of room to rotate lower and clean up inefficiencies into the massive daily shoulder — and remember, until they gain on a timeframe, we really should still be looking for shorts with NQ. Longs are for the sweeps and reclaims at the structural edges only.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Lid: 29648.00

29648.00 (Big Daily / Daily Gain Level).

• Context: This is the big Daily that is really keeping the lid on things. They needed to close back above it Thursday and Friday to seal a gain on the Daily timeframe and could not get it done. This is also where I would be taking major profits on any long off the pivot below.

• Actionable Setup: If price pushes above 29648.00, we should be able to get some continuation higher into the 29791.00 – 29796.50 reaction zone. This is where the Daily gain finally gets sealed. Below it, the lid holds and we keep leaning on the pivot underneath us.

The First Reaction Zone: 29791.00 – 29796.50

29796.50 (1-Hour), 29791.00 (Big Reaction Spot).

• Context: Above our pivot we are bullish, with a 1-Hour all the way up at 29796.50 that will more than likely get a reaction. 29791.00 is going to be our big spot up here — just from experience, more than likely this is the spot that gives us a big reaction.

• Actionable Setup: If we get above 29791.00 and it plays, we could come back down, hold it, and continue higher. But if this area plays and price gets back below it, we could really start to come down. Let it prove itself either way.

The Massive Daily & Composite Value Area High: 29971.00

29971.00 (Massive Daily / Composite Value Area High / Bullish-Above Pivot).

• Context: This is a massive Daily, and really a very similar-looking ordeal to the head and shoulders we called out on ES and the S&P. This looks like a massive spot to me, and I would certainly be looking for a big reaction here. The composite Value Area High also sits right here as a bullish-above pivot — this is essentially where things really start to shift in the favor of the Bulls, big time, from the very high timeframe.

• Actionable Setup: Expect a big reaction on first touch. A rejection here keeps the head-and-shoulders look alive and the higher-timeframe downside intact. Acceptance above 29971.00 hands control to the Bulls and opens the upper targets.

The Upper Targets: 30132.00 – 30208.00

30208.00 (Last & Final Untested Daily), 30132.00 (Big Weekly).

• Context: Above 29971.00, we still have a big Weekly at 30132.00 and our last and final untested Daily at 30208.00, which we should certainly not take for granted.

• Actionable Setup: If 29971.00 gets accepted, these are the next targets in sequence. Watch for first-touch reactions at each.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Momentum Shift Pivot: 29491.00 – 29526.00

29526.00 (Weekly / Leg to the All-Time High), 29509.00 (Previous Weekly POC / Massive Support), 29491.00 (1-Hour).

• Context: This is our big major pivot, and I think it’s pretty clear with this Weekly and the previous weekly point of control. The Weekly at 29526.00 is literally the leg to the all-time high — we are bullish above it and bearish below it. We continue to flirt with this area, and that is exactly why it is so important and will continue to be important time and time again. The previous weekly POC at 29509.00 is massive support for us. Below this area we can slip lower, and below the previous weekly Value Area Low things get really bearish.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: The way I’d want to see this play is the 1-Hour at 29491.00 play — it could potentially save the day — and price get back above the Weekly at 29526.00 for the continuation higher, taking major profits into the 29648.00 Daily area.

• Warning: Once we push below the previous weekly POC and this other big Weekly, we really start to shift momentum. It is not necessarily over below here, but they have a lot of room to rotate down and fill inefficiencies — and we have not gained on a single timeframe.

The Daily Shoulder & Inefficiency Fill: 29344.00 – 29357.00

29357.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 29355.00 (Daily / Beautiful Shoulder), 29348.00 (50-Day Moving Average), 29344.00 (4-Hour). The Monthly VWAP is also creeping up into this area.

• Context: The singles on the daily TPO run down to 29380.00, and this is the serious daily support sitting directly below them. The 29355.00 Daily is a beautiful shoulder — I really like this. The 4-Hour at 29357.00 is certainly untested and could potentially play; it played nicely from the top down previously. The 50-day sits right by the singles, and the Monthly VWAP creeping up here is a big sign for monthly value. This whole structure was created by the massive move up, so this is our support, and we really want to see this area hold.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: What I’d really like to see happen is the 29355.00 Daily and the 29344.00 4-Hour play and price get back above 29357.00. That can take us right back into the previous weekly POC at 29509.00 and the big Weekly at 29526.00, and potentially higher.

The Lower Shoulder & Composite Value Area Low: 29261.00 – 29281.00

29281.00 (Tested Daily), 29261.00 (Composite Value Area Low).

• Context: I’m a little iffy on the 29281.00 Daily, but it’s still there and I can’t ignore it. I like the structure, and it played a lot of times, both above and below — lots of times on the underside. That makes the whole area from 29355.00 down to 29281.00 one big, massive daily shoulder that, in my opinion, will more than likely get some serious love. The composite Value Area Low at 29261.00 sits right underneath it, and I like that spot.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: If 29281.00 plays, we need to get back above 29344.00 for our push higher. That is really the big spot for me, guys.

• Warning: We are down on the Weekly and the Daily. Let the reclaim confirm before you commit.

The Nasty Lasties: 29109.00 – 29196.00

29196.00 (100-Day Moving Average), 29139.00 (Last Untested 4-Hour), 29109.00 (Massive Tested Daily). There is also a 1-Hour level and a naked daily point of control down in this area.

• Context: If we do end up coming lower, this is the one last 4-Hour we can pay attention to, and I actually like 29139.00 quite a bit — it is very close to the 100-day at 29196.00, with a naked point of control on the daily timeframe down there as well. The 29109.00 Daily is very tested, but it is the lowest support in this structure. This is the nasty lasties: 29139.00 is essentially the last untested area that could hold this structure up, and 29109.00 is ultimately our big support spot.

• Actionable Setup: We have to get below 29109.00 in order to move lower. Hold here and the shoulder structure survives.

• Warning: This is where everything really goes south if they can’t hold this area.

The Sweep & Reclaim: 28876.00

28876.00 (4-Hour).

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Below 29109.00, we have a really nice 4-Hour spot after a sweep at 28876.00. This would be a great sweep of the low and a reclaim.

The Monster: 28607.00 – 28651.00

28651.00 (Untested Monthly Leg Up / 4-Hour), 28607.00 (Daily). Double back-to-back 4-Hours sit directly below.

• Context: A little lower, we have two or three really huge spots that I like. This is a massive shoulder — it is where the leg turned up on the push higher, and there is a massive amount of support in here. The double 4-Hours below give me a lot of confidence in terms of support, and it all lines up really nicely with the untested Monthly leg up at 28651.00. This area is a freaking monster, without a doubt.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: This is a great spot to take a poke. If price ends up gravitating down here, pay very close attention — this will more than likely get a pretty significant reaction.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

So that is how I’ve laid it out for you guys — it is pretty crispy and pretty clear. NQ is sitting in the middle of a multi-week composite, truly in balance, and yet pointed down on the Weekly, the Daily, and the 4-Hour with no gain on any of them. As much as this looks like it wants to continue higher, I just tell everyone to remain cautious. We really should still be looking for shorts on NQ until they prove otherwise, and the way they prove it is simple: hold the 29526.00 Weekly leg to the all-time high and the previous weekly POC at 29509.00, then push through the 29648.00 Daily. Do that, and the 29791.00 – 29796.50 zone and ultimately the massive 29971.00 Daily come into play — and above 29971.00 is where the Bulls take over from the very high timeframe.

Lose the pivot, and don’t panic — there is a lot of room to rotate lower and clean up those inefficiencies down to 29380.00, and the massive daily shoulder from 29357.00 to 29281.00 is where I expect some serious love. Below that, 29139.00 and 29109.00 are the nasty lasties that must hold, and if they don’t, the 28651.00 Monthly leg up is a monster waiting underneath. Let the levels play, wait for the reclaims, and let the market gain a timeframe before you get aggressive. I hope you all enjoyed this very rare, very special NQ edition — I’ll see you in the room tomorrow.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator on your NQ chart to automatically plot this week’s key levels:

30208.00|D|D
30132.00|WK|W
29971.00|D|D
29796.50|1HR|1H
29648.00|D|D
29526.00|WK|W
29491.00|1HR|1H
29357.00|4HR|4H
29355.00|D|D
29344.00|4HR|4H
29281.00|Tested D|TD
29139.00|4HR|4H
29109.00|Tested D|TD
28876.00|4HR|4H
28651.00|MO|M
28607.00|D|D

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Good morning, everyone. Today is Friday, September 4th, and yesterday’s trade plan called it perfect. As we know, we came off the Weekly significant buy spot that we’ve called out for weeks in advance at 7622.50. We let it be known on Tuesday that this potential level could take us all the way to 7800. With that being said, we had a monster push up on Wednesday, and then once again we held our Daily level at 7670.75 after sweeping down and playing 7661.50 for the daily progression — only to launch this yesterday right at the open, sending us up almost 100 points through yesterday’s cash session and into the overnight session, as price has rocketed toward our upper target area of 7800 that we’ve called out for some time.

This is a beautiful display of trade plan amazingness, and more importantly, a testament to the process. We were able to call all of this out in advance, before the trades even hit. It proves once again that VICI’s process is next to none, and I congratulate all those who took advantage of the past two days’ monster moves higher.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have a major Red Tag news event at 8:30 a.m. — this is one of the biggest news events of the month and is sure to cause a shake. Be prepared for this, as it is all pre-market, and we will without a doubt feel the after-effects coming into the cash session. This will be a market-moving event, especially as we come off the Weekly leg and gaining on the Daily, and it could propel us all the way up to our 7800 target.

  

• Volume: We have a negative Relative Volume of minus 20% coming into the morning, but this is standard protocol as we have a major Red Tag news event. I do expect this relative volume to either flatten out or increase throughout the day, which means we should get the full expected range today without a problem.

• Range: Expected range of 62.75 points. However, we have been in an extremely tight overnight range thus far, only moving 16.25 points, leaving us approximately 46.5 points above or below the overnight highs or lows this morning.

• Gamma: We have currently flipped from Negative Gamma to Positive Gamma, as our gamma flip level has moved below us to 7715. This insinuates that the options market makers are also pointed in the upside direction, giving us one more reason to assume we are in all buy-the-dip mode territory right now.

• Trend: Up on all time frames. Yesterday we accomplished a major feat of gaining on the Daily time frame at 7746.25 on ES. This puts us up on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour, telling us we are in buy-the-dip mode territory only.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Weekly-to-Weekly Touch in Motion

We are still primed for more up. Yesterday we accomplished a major feat of gaining on the Daily time frame — a monster achievement, as they essentially retraced three days’ worth of price action in less than two, only to catapult us directly up to gain on the Daily at 7746.25 on ES, cementing the Bulls’ confirmation that they are here to stay.

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Every week there’s a new firm, a new “industry-first” rule set, a new influencer with a discount code and no track record. Most of them don’t last eighteen months. Most of them find a reason not to pay. And most of them will happily take your evaluation fee and disappear into a support ticket queue.

So let me be straight with you about where VICI stands today.

After years of evaluating firms, getting audited by them, trading them with my own money, and watching how they treat my community when something goes wrong — Lucid Trading is our preferred prop firm partner. Not one of several. The one we point people to first, the one I trade personally, and the one that has earned that position by performance rather than by writing the biggest affiliate check.

This is a partnership announcement, so read it with that in mind. I earn a commission when you use our link. I’m also going to tell you exactly what Lucid doesn’t do well, because you deserve the whole picture before you spend a dollar.

The Proof, Not the Pitch

Lucid launched in early 2025 under founder AJ Campanella. In roughly eighteen months they’ve built something that took most of their competitors five years.

The numbers. Lucid has paid out over $400 million to traders. They’re approaching 350,000 registered traders, and their Discord runs north of 58,000 members with several thousand online at any given hour. Their published average payout time is 15 minutes from request to money moving.

The reviews. On Trustpilot, Lucid carries a 4.4 out of 5 across 5,667 reviews — rated Excellent — with 86% of those being five-star ratings. That’s roughly 4,900 five-star reviews, and over 5,400 of the total came in the last twelve months alone. For a firm that didn’t exist two and a half years ago, that volume is the tell. Traders don’t leave five-star reviews for prop firms out of goodwill. They leave them when they get paid.

The payouts are the product. This is the part I can speak to personally. When I submit a payout at Lucid, the money moves. Not in five business days. Not after a video review of my charts. Minutes. Once you’ve experienced that, waiting a week for a wire feels like a different decade of financial technology.

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The Programs, In Plain English

Lucid runs several paths to funded capital. Here’s what actually distinguishes them.

Program How You Get In Best For LucidPro Evaluation, EOD drawdown, one-day pass possible Traders who want the lowest hurdle to pass LucidFlex Evaluation, EOD drawdown, no consistency rule once funded Traders who want maximum freedom after funding LucidDaily Evaluation, then daily payout eligibility Traders who want cash flow, not payout windows LucidDirect Skip the evaluation, funded from day one Proven traders who don’t want to prove it again LucidLive Earned after your payout cycle completes Real capital, daily withdrawals, bonus on transition

LucidMaxx also exists as an invite-only tier. You can’t buy it — Lucid’s risk team identifies traders from funded-account performance data and reaches out.

What every program shares: a 90/10 profit split in your favor, a one-time fee with no monthly rebills, no time limit on your evaluation, no activation fee, and account activation within 5 to 30 minutes of hitting your target. You pay once. If you need three months to grind out a target, you take three months. Nobody is billing you again while you do it.

Anyone who has oversized a position on day 28 trying to beat a rebill date understands exactly why that matters.

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The New One: LucidDaily

This is the program worth your attention, and it’s new as of July.

LucidDaily is built around daily payout eligibility. No fixed payout window. Minimum request is $500 with no maximum cap on the request itself. You need positive net profit since your last payout and a balance above your buffer, and then you can request — any day you qualify.

Think about what that does to your business model. Most prop structures make you wait for a cycle, hit a set number of profitable days, then request and wait again. LucidDaily collapses that into something that behaves almost like trading your own cash account, except the capital isn’t yours and the downside is capped at what you paid for the evaluation.

You also get a choice at checkout on LucidDaily — daily loss limit on or off, and your drawdown preference — which lets you price the account against how you actually trade.

The honest part on LucidDaily: this program is not identical to Lucid’s others, and the differences matter. The funded account trails intraday, not end-of-day, so it behaves more aggressively than LucidFlex or LucidPro. And news trading is not allowed on LucidDaily funded accounts — positions have to be flat around red-folder releases, and violating that is a hard breach. If you trade CPI and FOMC, LucidDaily is the wrong program for you. Take Flex instead, where news trading is unrestricted.

I’d rather you know that now than find out on a payroll Friday.

Running Five Accounts at Once

Lucid allows up to five funded accounts per household, and they permit copy trading across accounts you own. Tradovate’s native Group Trading handles up to five accounts without any external software, and third-party copiers work across Rithmic and NinjaTrader setups if you need more flexibility.

The math is what makes this worth doing. One consistent strategy, replicated across five funded accounts, multiplies your payout capacity without multiplying your screen time. The work stays roughly the same. The output doesn’t.

Two rules to respect: you can copy your own trades only — running someone else’s signal service into your accounts isn’t permitted — and hedging across accounts is a hard ban. Long on one, short on another, is the fastest way to lose all five.

Going Live Is Where It Gets Interesting

Most prop firms keep you in simulated accounts indefinitely. Lucid built an exit ramp.

After your funded payout cycle completes, Lucid’s risk team reviews you for LucidLive — real capital, 90/10 split, EOD drawdown, no daily loss limit, and swing trading permitted. Payouts on LucidLive can be requested daily.

There’s also a one-time Live Bonus on your first transition, scaled to account size, running from $1,000 on a 25K up to $4,500 on a 150K. Hit your live target and Lucid releases it as a payout.

Daily withdrawals on real capital, with your own risk settings. That’s not a prop firm evaluation anymore. That’s a trading business.

→ Pick your program — code VICI at checkout

What You Get By Coming Through VICI

Here’s where the partnership becomes something more than a link.

We have a Lucid representative in our room. Not a support email — an actual affiliate contact present in our community who answers questions and resolves account issues for our members. The most common criticism in Lucid’s Trustpilot reviews is difficulty reaching support during busy periods. That is a real complaint, and it’s the specific problem our relationship solves for you. When something goes sideways on your account, you’re not filing a ticket into the void. You’re asking in our room.

Your purchases fund the giveaways. Because of our volume and our standing with Lucid, they provide us with evaluation accounts to hand out. I give those away in the Discord multiple times a month, and two to three at every webinar we run. Every one of those free evals exists because members used our link. That’s the loop, and I want you to see it plainly.

We’ve been audited and we’re still standing. The prop firm industry ran a brutal affiliate purge over the past year — most education outfits lost their approvals. We kept ours, and Lucid elevated us to preferred status. That standing is also what let us negotiate terms most people can’t get with a generic discount code.

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The Honest Part

What I’m not going to tell you is that Lucid is the only good prop firm out there. They aren’t. Apex still has the 20-account ceiling if raw scale is your priority, and there are other credible firms in this space.

What I will tell you is this: Lucid is young. They launched in 2025. They haven’t been stress-tested through a prolonged bear market or a liquidity event the way a fifteen-year-old firm has. That’s a real risk and you should weigh it.

Their Trustpilot also carries about 10% one-star reviews, and the recurring themes are support response times and occasional technical disruptions. I’m not going to pretend those don’t exist. I’m telling you we’ve built a direct line specifically because we know that friction is real.

Prop firm rules change constantly. Read the current rule book for the specific program you’re buying before you place a trade. Don’t take my word for it, and don’t take a review site’s word for it either — read Lucid’s help center yourself.

How to Get the Deal

Use our link and enter VICI at checkout for up to 50% off — the deepest discount available on Lucid’s programs. Right now that puts 50K evaluations as low as $90.

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Choose LucidFlex if you want the most freedom once funded and you trade news. Choose LucidDaily if cash flow matters more than anything and you can live without news trading. Choose LucidDirect if you’re already consistent and you’re done proving it on evaluations.

Do your own research. Read the rule books. Check the Trustpilot page yourself. But when you’re ready to pull the trigger, come through our link and code VICI — you get the best available pricing, you get direct support inside our room, and you keep the giveaway engine running for everyone else in this community.

Stick with the winning team.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everyone. Today is Thursday, September 3rd, and yesterday’s trade plan was phenomenal. We called the major buy spot at 7622.50 on Thursday, and then of course on Tuesday, and then again yesterday on Wednesday we swept the 7622.50 and it propelled us much higher all the way into our significant 4-Hour at 7690.75 for the high of the day. It was a beautiful display of trade plan amazingness, as we knew the previous all-time high pivot at 7648.75 would be a huge momentum shift for us — and as soon as price broke out over this level, they just continued straight into our major resistance area.

The next beautiful part was the fact that they played the Daily at 7670.75 for a pop up on the first pullback. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this insane squeeze yesterday, as it was certainly something we haven’t seen in quite some time. But knowing that we were playing the Weekly and had the Weekly at our backs — being one of the highest time frames that we play — this should not be surprising.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We do, however, have Unemployment Claims this morning at 8:30, and then ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. These are not Red Tag news events, but we should certainly keep our watch set to these, as they will more than likely give us a shake.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at minus 5%, leaving us pretty much on par with hitting our expected range today. That is about as neutral a read as we get.

• Range: Expected range of 59.25 points. We have already moved 33.25 points, meaning we have 26 points above or below the overnight high or low for our expected range today — and that could be very possible given where relative volume sits.

• Gamma: We are currently still in Negative Gamma territory, as our gamma flip level still resides at 7760, meaning dealers are still hedging to the downside. This gives us the ability to take trades in both directions today. Negative gamma tends to open up and expand the ranges and gives us an opportunity to play both directions.

• Trend: We are currently still down on the Daily time frame, but we gained on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour yesterday, leaving us in a position where we are starting to tip the scales back in favor of the Bulls. However, we are still technically down on the Daily, which tells us that money can certainly be made in both directions and we should be cautious.

🧠 Current Market Context

Coming Off the Weekly, But the Daily Hasn’t Gained

We are still very much coming off the 7622.50 Weekly from Thursday, and this is a very high time frame trade. In all honesty, it could propel us all the way back into our major resistance areas around 7737.75, 7748, or even higher into the 7800 area. This doesn’t mean it’s going to happen, but it is certainly a possibility, and so we just need to be careful.

We have some mixed signals right now, with us currently starting to gain on the lower time frames but yet having not gained on the Daily. We will continue to respect our levels and play our above/below significant spots to understand momentum.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everyone. Today is Wednesday, September 2nd, and once again we absolutely dominated the markets — having the beautiful high of the day at 7670.75, which we rode down for well over 50 points, only to come down to the perfect buy spot we said should be the absolute target from that short: the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour buy at 7622.50 that we have discussed many times over. It played with absolute precision, only to bounce the market back another 30 points at the end of the day, and it has continued to hold these lows, as we knew this area was significant.

We had a gangbusters day in the inner circle, as multiple members put up well over five and even six figures. Truly a landmark day for people who were patient and were able to sit on their hands and wait for the premium trades. It is an absolute fact, and yesterday was proof positive, that patience pays — and so does the process. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s spectacular price action. Based on our process, today we will do it all again.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of this morning. However, we do have the ADP Non-Farm Payroll Change at 8:15 a.m., which is the preliminary number today — the real number will be out on Friday. This number will still give us a prequel for what should be expected on Friday, so it could potentially cause some volatility. The true number is not yet known, so we need to make sure we are aware of the risks involved. The true blue number will be on Friday, but we do know this is an important event and we want to pay attention.

• Volume: We have an increased Relative Volume of over 20%, meaning we could absolutely have a range today of 36.5 points above or below the overnight highs or lows after relative volume is taken into account for adjustment.

• Range: Expected range of 58 points. We have currently moved 33 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 25 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment.

• Gamma: We are also still in Negative Gamma territory, with the gamma flip level all the way up at 7750. This means dealers are still hedging to the downside, and this could give us a probability of expanded ranges and money to be made in both directions.

• Trend: We are currently still pointed down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour time frames. The only time frame we are not down on is the Weekly, which means the Weekly is acceptable to buy. However, stay tuned, as we could soon have our first 4-Hour shift at the nine o’clock close.

🧠 Current Market Context

The 9 a.m. Close Decides the Day

We played our perfect Daily at 7670.75, which led us down well over 50 points into the perfect buy spot we’ve been calling for well over a few weeks now — the 7622.50 Daily, 4-Hour, Weekly buy. This is a huge spot for price to hold and is honestly a major support area. Yesterday they came down and played it with precision, then drifted sideways in the evening session, staying below the previous all-time high at 7648.75. That has been a major milestone marker for us and will once again be extremely important coming into the day.

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Here’s what we got into:

• He’s still short ES from 7750. That was my bull/bear line in the sand at 7752 — and he never covered. He walks through where he’s looking to take it off, plus the Dow short from 54,000 and the cover number he’s closing in on.

• Crude at three standard deviations. Everybody emailed him panicking about the Venezuela headlines. His answer: the market already knew. He’s selling more into it — and explains why that’s process, not opinion.

• The pretzel bet. Bubba’s got money (well, pretzels) on the 10-year hitting 5% by the end of September. We get into why he thinks rates head higher from here and what that eventually means for equities.

• VIX in the 13-14 handle. My read on why these low prints keep producing reactionary pops, and Bubba’s take: this is the time to be long volatility. He’ll bet anyone we see 22-24 before year end.

• Why this is the slowest week of the year. The A, B, C and D teams at the big banks — and which ones are actually at the desk right now. Plus what happens Friday at 10am after the jobs number.

• The P&L trap. A trader in my room left 20 points on the table today because she was trying to win back yesterday’s loss. Bubba’s floor version: the guys praying to get back to even. Same disease, forty years apart.

• The automated hedging program. Bubba explains the one-by-two back ratio system he built that keeps him 100% invested and rolls the hedge every 3% move — the 30,000-foot view of one of his best inventions.

• Rip-your-face-off rallies. Why the biggest rallies happen in bear markets, and what it looked like on the floor when everybody was short and the first guy started buying.

I closed it out with my two buy spots below and the level where this whole thing gets sucked back into that 10-week balance area — and what that means if it happens.

Hit play.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everyone. Today is Tuesday, September 1st. We come into a brand new month, and of course we come off another ridiculous day in the trade plan, where we called in the Weekend Review that we would gravitate toward our major 4-Hour level at 7679.25. It was so imperative for the market to hold, as it was truly the level holding the entire market up. Yesterday this area came down and played with precision on both ES and SPX, held to the tick all day long, only to end up popping higher for about 25 points for a spectacular display of trade plan perfection.

Just as stated in the post-market breakdown and in the Weekend Review, that level on ES at 7679.25 and the 7666.88 on SPX was in fact so very important, as this was the level that was imperative for us to hold — it made all the difference between us continuing our move back into potential all-time highs or drifting lower to fill the weekly gap.

In the overnight session, price has pushed down violently this morning. We are down 46 points at the time of this writing, bringing us right down into our half gap and touching with precision our previous all-time high at 7648.75. As many of you know, this was the big spot I have been talking about for a potential target and a potential reaction, and right now price is holding firmly at the lows.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have Red Tag news after the open today at 10:00 a.m. We have ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings, both at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Given that we have pushed down in the overnight session with Red Tag news coming after the open, we must be prepared for volatility, as we have now moved outside the range we have been in for quite some time.

• Volume: We have a Relative Volume at the time of this writing of plus 78%, which is drastically higher than anything we’ve seen for weeks. This complements our expected range today, giving us another 43 points left in the tank to potentially move above or below the overnight highs or lows. This is a nice change of pace considering the slow summertime progression we have had.

• Range: Expected range of 56.26 points. However, we have already moved 59.5 points in the overnight session, already exceeding our expected range for the day. Relative volume is what extends our runway from here.

• Gamma: Our gamma flip level is located at 7760, which is well above us and truly very close to our massive pivot level around 7752 — a level we have stated over and over that we are inherently bearish underneath. The dealers are hedging essentially this level and lower, giving us confirmation that our bias is in fact correct.

• Trend: Downside lean. We come into the morning down on all time frames on ES. We have lost on the 4-Hour, the 1-Hour, and the Daily time frames, and right now this keeps our process pointed to the downside.

🧠 Current Market Context

All Time Frames Lost & The Half Gap Touch

Price was drifting sideways in the overnight action but got a fierce push down around four o’clock this morning, and we have moved into the previous all-time high at 7648.75, where price is currently holding. We are essentially flirting with our options pivot at 7651.00 and our previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7656.00. This is a massive area, as directly below us we know we have the gap fill at 7640.25, and directly above us we have massive resistance that could potentially take us down into the large buy spot we’ve talked about for some time.

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I’m stalking it. And I’ve been doing this long enough to know the difference between a stock that’s breaking and a stock that’s handing me the entry I asked for.

Here’s what happened last week, in order. On Tuesday, OpenAI published benchmarks claiming its new in-house chip beats NVIDIA’s Blackwell systems on inference. On Wednesday night, NVIDIA reported a $96 billion quarter — revenue up 106% year over year — and guided the current quarter to $108 billion. On Thursday the stock ripped 8.7% on more than twice its normal volume, the first time it has closed up the day after earnings in five quarters. On Friday, Kevin Warsh gave his first Jackson Hole speech as Fed Chair, the market moved to better-than-even odds of a September rate hike, and NVDA gave back 4.6% on a day the S&P 500 fell a quarter of a percent.

That last part is the whole setup.

NVIDIA isn’t being repriced on its numbers. It’s being pulled back by the Fed — into a pocket I’ve had marked on my chart for weeks.

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What I really want to talk about is Friday. We had the high nailed. After that massive push up, which we actually called, we came right into our significant resistance and it played perfectly to the tick. It was represented by SPX’s head-and-shoulders daily at 7771 — a level I have talked about over and over again. What a beautiful spot. And it was laid out perfectly in the trade plan, which said our next major daily resistance area was at 7771 and that the area was highly reactionary, with a smack expected. We called that out way in advance. I have been talking about that daily and the massive head and shoulders all week, so it should have been on everyone’s radar. We were all over it in the Inner Circle, I was short at the highs, got everybody to join me on the retest, and we made great money on Friday for the big one-and-done. We squeezed right up into our level, and it was a very powerful squeeze with the Fed on the mic in the afternoon giving us some nice volatility.

We have been in extreme summertime trading for the past two weeks and it has been super slow — but if you were patient and you played the process, you made out pretty well. I had a couple of days where I sat on my hands, and the trade plan still paid up. Patience is the trade. Sitting on your hands and waiting for the edges is the trade, and the past few weeks have really emphasized that. All you need is a couple of really good trades a week to set yourself up nicely. Big salute to everyone in the room who capitalized, and a special congratulations to Jeff — first day in the room after the webinar Thursday and he did really well just following along. Excellent stuff.

Let’s get into it: VIX, SPX, and ES. I have got some great places to buy and some great places to short. We had an interesting close on Friday that leaves me feeling like it could go either way, so we default to our higher timeframe.

☕ FREE RESOURCE — The SPX Morning Brief | Delivered 5:45 AM EST I have revamped this entire brief, and the new version comes out Wednesday — you need to get on the list before the spots fill up.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: The Fed on the mic Friday afternoon gave us a powerful squeeze and some welcome volatility right into our level. Nothing specific flagged for the week ahead, but we are rolling into the first of September, so stay alert at the open.

• Volume: We are in extreme summertime trading with low relative volume, and it has been super slow for two weeks. But we are approaching the end of August — as we come into the first of the month in September, we have maybe a couple of weeks of summertime left, and then this whole low-volume, slow, grindy stuff should be over.

• Range: We are technically right back in multi-week balance and multi-day balance. The weekly and daily profiles both show overlapping value areas stacked one on top of the other, and comparing the week before last to this past week, we have essentially gone nowhere. There is an extreme inefficiency in the valley of the weekly profile with singles that absolutely need to get cleaned up — a bell curve does not have divots in it, so that will more than likely get filled.

• The Discrepancy: Here is the thing you need to know coming into the week: SPX has gained on the daily timeframe — really on all timeframes — but ES has not. ES is still pointed down on the daily while being up on the four-hour, the weekly, and the one-hour. That is a huge discrepancy, and it is the same one we dealt with on Friday. We made it work then and we will make it work again.

• Trend: Leaning to the upside pretty hardcore. SPX is our lead, and its close has me still looking fairly bullish. That said, I do believe money can be made in both directions — I think we get longs and shorts into rotation. All things aside, it seems like we are still buying support, but with VIX this low, we keep our guard up.

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🧠 Current Market Context

The Timeframe Discrepancy & The One Spot That Has To Hold

We find ourselves in a really interesting predicament. We are technically right back in multi-week and multi-day balance, and looking at the profiles side by side, the week before last and this past week have gone essentially nowhere. So we need to be very careful as we continue to balance back and forth while they determine whether they push higher or rotate lower. Ultimately they could just be accepting value for the next push up — we really do not know. What we do know is the areas we have to play and hold, and that is what we focus on.

The ES weekly TPO tells the important part of the story. We had that massive profile, we pushed down, and we have started to fill it all in — and not just in one week. We closed Friday underneath the previous weekly value area high at 7728, and we are also underneath the week-before’s value area high at 7748, which I told you last week was our big pivot area. But here is what I really want you to see: the value area low I flagged last week now lines up perfectly with our previous weekly point of control — the exact level I told you I really liked. And look at the valley in there: we have an extreme inefficiency with singles in the weekly profile that absolutely need to get cleaned up. Since we have closed below the previous weeks’ value, that tells me fair value sits down there, and more than likely we clean all of it up and settle back in around that zone. When you combine those profiles, you still have a big divot — and bell curves do not have divots. It needs to get cleaned up. On the daily profiles it is the same picture: massive overlapping values with a huge area below that aligns with our weekly spot, and a two-day composite whose daily POC lines up perfectly with the multi-day composite. I think it looks phenomenal, and it sets up a potential buy.

On SPX, look at that head and shoulders — what a beauty. The 7771 daily is now tested, so I am turning it red; it is no longer relevant as untested, but we know it is significant. Here is the discrepancy again: we gained on the daily on SPX but not on ES, and since SPX is our lead, we have to keep pointing that direction. I have exactly one untested level for support and I am watching it like a hawk: the four-hour buy spot at 7666, with a one-hour right at 7665. I love four-hour levels but I get more excited about dailies and weeklies — and we simply do not have anything untested below us for support. Those red dashed lines are dailies that are tested but very significant; we use them as static support and as momentum shift pivots for above/below continuation. Above us, we have an untested daily now at 7728 that was created Friday plus a four-hour at 7735. This whole thing is a monster spot. I could see us getting a massive pop off 7666 that takes us all the way back up, truly making that W formation — and that would be kind of sexy. If it holds and we get back above the daily at 7691 and ultimately 7709, there is really no stopping us from getting up into that resistance, as long as they test 7728 first. I want to see this get wiped, come down, play the buy and hold, get back above, and then come visit that area. Above there, 7785 is still an untested weekly and still that massive head and shoulders, and I have a very large untested daily at the high at 7798 — that one was actually tested on ES in the overnight session, but it is still very much wide open on SPX. If we push below 7666 and get below 7652, we come down into the major buy spot at 7609 - 7582, which fills that gap. So that is the line in the sand: we either play this and pop back up, or we come down, play that area, and try again.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 13.60 Last Untested Weekly

I want to throw out the same precautionary tale I gave last week: we are entering the $14 and $13 handle again, which is extreme suppression on VIX. When we get this low, we tend to get reactionary pops, because it is a balancing issue — VIX gets a little too oversold, we come into important supports, and the knee-jerk reactions cause the indices to pull back. This does not mean I am bearish. It just means I am cautious. I know how these reactionary pushes work — and if you recall, I put the same warning out last Sunday, and that turned out to be the all-time-high pullback. So again, exercise caution as we continue to drift lower.

• The Last Untested Weekly: 13.60. We have one more untested level way down here, and that is my last untested weekly. I would be looking for a reaction here, and more than likely we will see this area based on what I can see on the charts right now — but we never know.

• The Current Prop: 14.25 (Weekly). This weekly is currently propping VIX up and it looks pretty good. In my opinion, I still think we could come a little lower into the 13.60, but this one is doing its job for now.

• The Reclaim Zone: 14.95 and 15.13. This is our big pivot area to get back above. 14.95 is the big one, and 15.13 is the hurdle — this weekly is highly untested and it is a big spot. If VIX gets above 15.13, we can start pushing through the daily above.

• The Ceiling: 16.15 (Daily). You guys know this daily kept us suppressed for an entire week — it was an amazing call for being the ceiling and it acted as exactly that as we came down.

• The Bull/Bear Line: 17.44 (Monthly). As you know, this has been a huge bull/bear line for us in the past. That is the high-timeframe map: 14.95 / 15.13 to get back above, and 13.60 for support.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are still buying support with the higher timeframe as our default, but I expect rotation in both directions. I have one massive buy spot: the 7679 four-hour, sitting on the previous weekly point of control at 7683 with a mountain of confluence. Above us, the resistance ladder is heavy and reactionary: 7737 first, then 7746.25 - 7749, and above 7752 I truly believe we shift and come up into 7800. It is my belief that we move lower before we move higher — but we go on facts, not feelings, so we let the levels decide.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Previous Weekly VAH: 7728.00

7728.00 (Previous Weekly Value Area High).

• Context: We closed Friday back below 7728, our previous weekly value area high, and we are also below the week-before’s value area high at 7748 that served as last week’s big pivot. Being under this is what keeps us in balance rather than in breakout mode.

• Actionable Setup: Reclaiming 7728 is the first step in shifting the near-term picture back to the bulls. As long as we are below it, we remain inside the balance and the rotation-lower scenario stays live.

The First Resistance — Leg To The All-Time High: 7737.00

7737.00 (Untested Daily — Leg To The All-Time High).

• Context: This number should be familiar to every single person who has traded with me for at least a week — we have talked about 7737 multiple times. It is now untested on the daily timeframe and it is our significant leg to the all-time high. This is a highly reactionary area.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: This is our first resistance area and a prime location for a reaction. Expect a smack on the first touch, and if we are riding the long up from below, this is where to be taking profits.

The Second Resistance — Friday’s Leg Down & 4-Hour: 7746.25 - 7749.00

7749.00 (Four-Hour — Current Four-Hour Down), 7746.25 (Untested Daily — Current Daily Leg Down Made Friday).

• Context: Directly above 7737 we have 7746.25, our current daily leg down that was made on Friday — also an untested area that could provide a potential reaction. And at 7749 we have our current four-hour down. My one caution on the four-hour, and I am using it as something to lean on: we have not lost on the four-hour timeframe. So while this could provide a smack, it could just as easily be a small head bump as we continue progression higher.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Our second resistance area is 7746 through 7749. Look for the reaction, but respect that the four-hour trend is still intact — do not marry the short here.

The Shift Level — The Big Daily: 7752.00

7752.00 (Tested Daily).

• Context: We talked about 7752 last week as the big daily we needed to push above. We kept getting capped here, and capped again, and then Friday they tried to push up and still could not close above it — they pushed all the way up and closed way down, never securing the firm daily hold. As you know, when they got above 7752 the first time, they broke out. So here we are again.

• Actionable Setup: Above 7752, I truly believe we shift and come up into 7800. That is the trigger for the upside continuation. Below it, we keep working the balance.

The Upside Target: 7800.00

7800.00 (Upside Objective).

• Context: This is where we go if they clear 7752 and shift the structure. It is the same idea I pointed out on SPX with the head-and-shoulders zone up there.

• Actionable Setup: Treat 7800 as the objective on an acceptance above 7752, and reassess the head-and-shoulders scenario when we get there.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Tested Leg-Up Cluster: 7711.00 - 7714.00

7714.00 (Tested Daily — The Monster), 7711.00 (Very Tested Four-Hour — Current Leg Up).

• Context: You guys know the 7714 daily has been huge — what a monster daily we have played time and time again. Right with it, the 7711 is our current four-hour leg up, which is now very much tested.

• Actionable Setup: These are profit-taking markers on the way up from the buy spot below. If they push below this area, it will become resistance from the bottom side up, as we have talked about many times before.

The Thursday Sweep Level: 7701.00

7701.00 (Major Above/Below).

• Context: 7701 has held us down multiple times, and just on Thursday they swept into this level and then catapulted us up higher. So we know this one is massive.

• Actionable Setup: Take Profits: On the long from the buy spot below, this is where we take big profits before working toward the 7711 / 7714 cluster above.

THE MASSIVE BUY SPOT — 4-Hour Leg To The High: 7679.00 - 7683.00

7683.00 (Previous Weekly Point of Control), 7679.00 (Four-Hour + One-Hour — True Leg To The High).

• Context: This is my massive buy spot. Now you are probably thinking: Ryan, we are smacking dailies all over the place — why are we buying a four-hour and treating it like the holy mecca? Because this is a fantastic spot. It lines up with the massive amount of accumulation we have had over the past week and a half, it sits right on the weekly POC, and this four-hour is not just any four-hour — it is our true four-hour leg to the high right now, and really the last untested. The one-hour at 7679 is the same spot and it looks beautiful and clean. This is also where the inefficiency in the weekly profile gets cleaned up, and where yesterday’s point of control sits if we rotate down from our current location. It is the same area I showed you on SPX at 7666, so there is confluence out the wazoo here.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: We play this area and we want to get back above the previous weekly point of control at 7683. From there we take big profits at 7701, then the 7711 / 7714 cluster, expect a little pullback, and if they push back through, we start taking more profits around 7752 and 7737. If this low holds, we could go all the way back up and make that W on the high timeframe.

• Warning: If we play this area and they reject it, we come down and fill that big weekly TPO gap along with the rest of the inefficiency below. This is the one spot on both ES and SPX that absolutely has to hold to keep this whole market propped up.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

This is going to set every one of you up for success coming into next week, so let me lay out exactly where my head is at. We have a little disparity here. VIX is super low, which is kind of scary to me — but we are obviously still bullish and we should not think of it any other way; we just keep our guard up. On the other side, we have gained on the daily timeframe and really all timeframes on SPX, and that is truly keeping me leaning to the upside pretty hardcore. The discrepancy is that ES is down on the daily but up on the four-hour, the weekly, and the one-hour. All things aside, it seems like we are still buying support.

I do see some heavy reactionary resistance overhead: 7737 first as the untested leg to the all-time high, then 7746.25 - 7749, and above 7752 we shift and come up into 7800. It is my belief that we move lower before we move higher — but again, that is a belief, and we go on facts, not feelings. And really, we have just the one buy spot on ES and SPX that absolutely has to hold to keep this whole market propped up: 7679 on ES sitting on the 7683 previous weekly point of control, and 7666 on SPX. If it does not hold, we come down lower and fill the weekly gap, which is certainly a possibility. But I have to tell you — I think that spot is going to get love regardless. I do not know if it saves the day, I do not know if it creates the W on the high timeframe, but I do believe that area will get a reaction, and I will be looking to take that trade there, watching for the actionable setup. And of course, we ride runners to Valhalla.

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Last week was incredible. Let’s do it all again this week. I look forward to serving each and every one of you, and I will see you first thing Monday morning.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7752.00|Tested D|TD
7749.00|4HR|4H
7746.25|D|D
7737.00|D|D
7728.00|P.W. VAH|GD
7714.00|Tested D|TD
7711.00|Tested 4HR|T4
7679.00|4HR|4H