OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, June 18th, and we come off FOMC day yesterday. With a new Fed chair on board, they discussed rate adjustments and the state of the economy but did not move rates at all — and the simple fact of bringing in a new chair since Powell has been quite the event and caused some volatility. Yesterday we were down over 100 points at the peak, only to rebound sharply in the overnight session, leaving us up 55 points at the time of this writing.

We are still very much in rollover, and things are a little mysterious on the ES this morning, leaving us in a precarious position — so we will default to our process and lean into SPX for guidance. The big structural shift to be aware of is gamma: the flip level has moved all the way up to sit directly beneath us at 7520.00. That is significant, because the closer the flip gets to our current strike, the more fragile our position becomes. We are up on all timeframes thanks to the massive rollover gap and Sunday’s news, but with a holiday tomorrow and one more day of rollover shenanigans, we need to be extremely choosy.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do have Philly Fed manufacturing and unemployment claims at 8:30 — not Red Tag, but relatively important, so look for some pre-market action. Keep in mind we also have a holiday tomorrow.

• Volume: Relative Volume reads -13% today. With no Red Tag news, things could be slightly muted, but coming off FOMC volatility we should still expect a little something.

• Range: Expected range of 116.5 points. We have moved 64 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 52 points in the tank above or below the overnight high or low.

• Gamma: We are in a Positive Gamma regime, with the flip level having moved all the way up to 7520.00, directly below us. This is a significant shift — being this close to our current strike leaves us fragile, and dealers are hedging to the upside above it. Lose 7520.00 and they flip to the downside fast.

• Trend: Up on all timeframes as of right now, driven by the massive rollover gap and Sunday’s news. That said, the ES picture is mysterious and precarious in the middle of rollover, so lean on SPX for cleaner guidance.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Post-FOMC Bounce on a Fragile Gamma Footing

After a wild FOMC session, we find ourselves up on all timeframes, but the footing is fragile. The ES is in a very interesting position: the gamma flip has moved up to 7520.00, so dealers are now hedging us to the upside, and our major support above/below is the 7527.50 Daily — a level we have talked about for weeks and that proved important again last week. Being above or below 7527.50 truly shifts momentum into the favor of the bulls or the bears. This is the same level as 7501.00 on SPX that I continue to harp about. As long as we stay above 7527.50, we continue to move higher; we have a 4-Hour at 7531.00 playing right now with a Put Wall at 7531.00, and as price has pushed higher it has reclaimed the 7542.00 Daily, giving us an early indication that price could continue up.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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⚠️ High-Risk Day Notice: In my honest opinion, today is a high-risk, low-reward day and I personally will not be trading it. We are in the middle of rollover with thin, distorted volume, a major FOMC announcement and the new Fed chair’s first press conference, plus a holiday Friday. My advice: enjoy the day off and let the price action settle. If you must trade, trade before noon, get your money before lunch, and step away. Remember — cash is a position, and it is okay not to trade every day.

Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 17th, and we come into the day with a packed news slate and a genuinely difficult tape. We have retail sales this morning at 8:30, President Trump speaking at 9:30 at the open, the FOMC rate announcement at 2:00, and the press conference at 2:30. I want to make a severe point right up front: in terms of picking your spots, this is a very high-risk, low-reward kind of day.

We find ourselves in an interesting predicament because we are directly in the middle of rollover — our third day — which makes the price action messy and scarce. My post-market breakdown yesterday showed the massive discrepancy between the old M contract and the new U contract: one keeps us well underneath the all-time highs and major resistance, the other puts us well above all-time highs and above massive support, while SPX is still being suppressed off major resistance. That is an extremely contradictory look, and combined with low volume, FOMC, and a holiday Friday, it is a very difficult situation. Heed caution — the picture is unclear, the volume is thin, and we have one of the largest announcements of the year with a brand-new Fed chair.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: A loaded slate. Core retail sales at 8:30 (not Red Tag), President Trump speaking at 9:30 (he appears unhappy with the Iran deal and is already on social media, which is sure to bring volatility), the Federal Funds rate announcement at 2:00 (roughly 90% chance of no hike), and — most important — the first press conference from new Fed Chair Walsh at 2:30. We have no idea what he will say or how he feels, and the algorithms will react hard to every comment.

• Volume: Relative Volume reads -41%, but this is a distorted, untrustworthy number — volume is split across two contract months and participants are waiting on FOMC.

• Range: Expected range of 113 points. We have moved 31 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 80 points above or below the overnight high or low. Given the new Fed chair and the rate announcement, we could more than likely meet or exceed the expected range.

• Gamma: The gamma flip level has moved up to 7530.00, which sits below our current structure on the U contract. Dips above that flip still favor the buy-the-dip thesis, but treat the whole regime with caution given the news.

• Trend: Contradictory across contracts. On the new U contract we sit above all-time highs and above support with a bullish lean, but the M contract and a suppressed SPX paint the opposite picture — so the honest read is that direction is extremely unclear until the dust settles.

🧠 Current Market Context

Sandwiched in the Middle of Rollover into FOMC

Getting into ES, my post-market breakdown showed substantial differences between the M and U contracts — one traversing all-time highs while the other sits underneath massive resistance — making the picture extremely unclear from an ES perspective. We are sandwiched between two dailies right now. The 7583.00 Daily held all of Monday and propelled us to the highs, but we came down and closed directly below it yesterday, showing a sign of weakness. Then they played our 7577.50 4-Hour perfectly to the tick and launched us up well over 40 points overnight, only to come back down and retest this area in the morning session.

Watch Below If you missed it.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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🔄 Rollover Notice: I have officially rolled over and am now on the U (September) contract. This put us up significantly yesterday, into all-time high territory. Please note that all ES levels in today’s plan are on the new rollover contract.

Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 16th. Coming into the morning, we find ourselves balancing sideways in an extremely tight range — only 22 points in the overnight session as we drift at all-time highs on the new contract. We are coming right off of rollover, and this is a big one: yesterday’s move was astronomical. We were up over 135 points on the old contract, and on the new rollover contract we found ourselves up over 200 points including the roll — putting us right back into all-time high territory off the back of the Iran peace treaty deal.

As we sit up here, we are going to need to digest this massive move in a back-and-forth fashion. We have flipped into Positive Gamma with the gamma flip level all the way down at 7500.00, well underneath our structure — which means any dip feeds the buy-the-dip thesis, and we are looking for longs. As they accept value, we either continue up to fill our bullish imbalance target at 7787.50 or come back lower to test some of the inefficiencies left during rollover. That is yet to be decided, but the lean is up.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do, however, have FOMC tomorrow with our new Fed chair Walsh — a roughly 90% chance they will not raise rates, but the market is essentially waiting on that announcement as it digests yesterday’s massive push. With a brand-new Fed chair, this is a relatively volatile moment, as participants do not yet know how he moves or reacts.

• Volume: Relative Volume is showing a deeply negative reading of roughly -47% to -48% on the new contract. I am not taking this number seriously — we are directly in the middle of rollover, with volume split between the old and new contracts, which always distorts the read. Take it with a grain of salt.

• Range: Expected range of 122 points today, leaving approximately 100 points above or below the overnight high or low. With only a 22-point overnight range and rollover distortion, I am not certain this range gets filled — I have a strong reason to believe it will not, and that we continue to distribute sideways.

• Gamma: We have flipped into Positive Gamma territory, with the flip level at 7500.00 sitting well beneath our structure. This supports the buy-the-dip thesis — dips should be bought as long as we hold above that flip.

• Trend: Bullish lean. We are clearly back up on all timeframes and surfing all-time highs in the futures, supported by positive gamma. The path of least resistance is up.

🧠 Current Market Context

Digesting the Massive Move at All-Time Highs

ES is something unbelievable right now. I had no idea the new rollover contract had taken us into all-time highs until I rolled over last night — we were still significantly far away on the previous month’s contract and not there yet on SPX. Because of that, we have to assume we continue to drift higher into all-time high territory as SPX plays catch-up. We are carrying a massive bullish imbalance that we talked about a couple of weeks ago, taking us all the way up to 7787.50 — more than likely a real target as we traverse these highs. With positive gamma beneath us and price surfing the highs, everything we do from here is looking for a long until we break the 7577.50 4-Hour.

Today is going to be a slow and potentially tricky day. The tight overnight range tells me we will eventually break out of it one way or another, but with the market digesting yesterday’s news and rollover simultaneously — and most participants waiting on FOMC tomorrow — I expect continued sideways distribution as we accept value and clean up some inefficiencies. Be patient, look for the buy-the-dip moment, and aim for one or two high-probability trades rather than forcing it.

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Before we dig in, I want to give a big shout-out to Timmy in the room. Timmy is a course holder, a Substack subscriber, and an Inner Circle member — and he just passed his first prop firm ever. He has only been in here six to eight weeks and he has turned an incredible corner doing all the right things. He is officially a funded trader, and we will get him paid out shortly. Congratulations, Timmy — it is only up from here, brother. This is exactly the kind of life-changing stuff we are here to do.

So let’s get into it. We have had a wild, volatile couple of weeks, and we are sitting in a very critical, make-it-or-break-it area right now. I am going to keep VIX brief, then walk SPX and ES — and I have some serious plays lined up.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: We have geopolitical headlines into Monday. Trump claims an Iran peace treaty deal was set to be signed today at some point before the market opens — I have not confirmed whether it actually got sealed. If it does get signed, the market will more than likely pop like usual. Monitor for developments into the open.

• Performance: Another insane week in a Negative Gamma regime — massive moves overnight and in cash, and we caught every nook and cranny. We also called the 7234 bottom to the tick, which produced a 130-point pop off that level a few days ago.

• Range: A wild, volatile couple of weeks. After the 130-point pop off 7234, the issue was we popped hard but did not actually gain anything — so we came back down, held the lower section at 7234-7200 (SPX) / 7264-7225 (ES), and are now starting to move back above. We sit right at a critical make-or-break heading into Monday.

• Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma environment. That means money can be made both ways and ranges will be huge — great for us, but squeezes can be violent, so stay nimble.

• Trend: It is a true make-it-or-break-it at 7458.50 on ES (7438 on SPX). The one thing that makes me lean slightly more bullish: they had a chance to dump this market on Friday and they chose not to. We also touched the 50-day moving average at 7273 on ES — a level CTAs and hedge funds love to buy when accumulating trending assets. I am not a moving-average guy, but when it holds in a significant area, I pay attention.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Make-or-Break & The High-Volume-Node Magnet at 7527

We are sitting in one of the most critical spots we have seen in weeks — a genuine make-it-or-break-it. The story is simple and clean: we called the 7234 bottom to the tick on SPX, got the 130-point pop, came back down, and held the lower section. That zone is our current leg to the all-time high, and it held. Now the entire game comes down to one level — 7458.50 on ES (7438 on SPX) — the daily leg-down level we shorted on Friday for 50 points. Above it, we fill the value area and march to the upside. Below it, we get weak and work the downside supports.

On SPX, a push above 7438 takes us into 7501 and 7520 — and 7501 is my preferred favorite up there, the neckline of a massive head-and-shoulders pattern. I am anticipating a reaction at 7501; if it smacks, get the heck out of the way, because we could roll over from there. My pivot zone is 7438 above / 7412 below — break 7412 and we have a problem, opening the door to 7353 (a solid 65 points lower), then supports at 7319 and 7300. Above 7520, there is a gap fill and then a weekly cluster at 7582-7585. But make no mistake: even on the big-picture timeframe, nothing changes — it all comes down to 7438 on SPX.

On ES, the picture is nearly identical. The weekly TPO tells a bullish story: we closed right at the previous weekly value area high with the point of control migrated all the way up — a huge bullish indication — and above the composite value-area POC from last week, where there is a lot of buying volume. There is a massive inefficiency above us that needs to be cleaned up. The standout: a massive high-volume node on the weekly timeframe sitting at 7527.50, which lines up perfectly with the big daily at 7527 I have been calling to the tick. That confluence is the magnet. The one thing that makes me a little more bullish here is the same tell as SPX — they had the chance to dump on Friday and didn’t — so above 7458.50, I think filling the value box up to 7527 is absolutely on the table.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 16.20 Monthly Pocket

Keeping VIX brief, as promised. We called this entire push up off the 14.95 monthly and the pullback into the 17.44 monthly that propelled us higher. VIX spiked into the 23.43 area and tested the upper monthly/daily zone — a monster hit — but as it comes back down now, it has not truly gained anything. There are two levels I am watching.

• The Primed Reaction Zone: 16.20 (Monthly). This looks really, really primed to me — it is right back in the pocket, a massive area of support. This is where I am more than likely looking for a reaction. I would watch for a play down into 16.20, then a pop back above.

• The Untested Pivot: 17.19 (Technically Untested Under the Sweep). This is still technically untested under the recent sweep, so we could come down and pop right back up through it. A pop back above 17.19 and the 17.44 monthly could send VIX back to the 24.70 area — which would put real pressure on the indices.

• The Read: As long as VIX keeps drifting and stays suppressed, the indices have room to push. The 16.20 monthly is the main spot — a reaction there with the indices at the make-or-break would be the tell. If VIX reclaims 17.19 and 17.44, guard up.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

It all comes down to the make-or-break at 7458.50. Above it, we fill the value box and target the 7527 daily / high-volume-node magnet, then potentially 7542 and the 7596.50 weekly. Below it, we need to hold 7414 and 7404.50 to keep the upside alive — under 7414, momentum shifts, and it all goes bad under the 7373 leg. The deeper buy I like is the 7336.50 4-Hour “Gain Never Tested” setup, with 7287-7284 as the last untested support and short-target zone below.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Make-or-Break Pivot: 7458.50

7458.50 (Tested Daily — Current Leg Down / Head & Shoulders).

• Context: This is everything for us right now. The 7458.50 daily is our current leg down — the level we shorted on Friday for 50 points, adding once we got back below the overnight high exactly as the plan called for. It is also the neckline of a massive head-and-shoulders pattern. Whether we open above or below this level on Monday is the single most important question on the board.

• Actionable Setup: A push and acceptance above 7458.50 fills the value box and takes us directly up toward the 7527 magnet. We keep an eye on this level even if we come back below it. The fact that they didn’t dump on Friday leans me bullish — but this is the line that decides it.

• Warning: This is a head-and-shoulders neckline. It is entirely possible we push up into the 7527 shoulder and roll over — do not marry the long. Let the level prove acceptance before committing.

The Magnet — Daily & Weekly High-Volume Node: 7527.00

7527.50 (Weekly High-Volume Node), 7527.00 (Daily — Called to the Tick).

• Context: This is the magnet above the make-or-break. The big daily at 7527 lines up with a massive weekly high-volume node at 7527.50 — absolutely perfect confluence. If we get above 7458.50 and fill the value box, this is the target. But this is also a major reaction zone with that massive head-and-shoulders shoulder sitting right here.

• Actionable Setup: Once we reach 7527, two things happen: either we smack off it and come back down toward the 7542 area, or we accept above it and continue higher. Keep this spot marked on your chart — once we are back above 7527, that shoulder is massive and it changes the whole upside picture.

• Warning: Anticipate a reaction at 7527. Take profits into it if you are riding the squeeze up from the lower buys.

The Upside Extension: 7542.00 - 7596.50

7596.50 (Weekly), 7542.00 (Extension Target).

• Context: If we smack off 7527 and continue rather than rolling, the 7542 area is the next step, with a big weekly up at 7596.50. I do not know if 7596.50 plays — I think it gets some action, but I am not sure it dumps from there.

• Actionable Setup: These are upside continuation targets only relevant if 7527 is accepted. Treat 7596.50 as a reaction zone, not a guaranteed top.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Momentum Pivot: 7414.00

7414.00 (Untested Daily).

• Context: Here is an important catch — I initially had this as very much tested, but looking closely, the 7414 daily is actually untested right now currently, and I am glad we caught that. It is very much untested from the top down and will more than likely come into play at the open. Under 7414, momentum shifts to the downside.

• Actionable Setup: We need to hold 7414 (and 7404.50 just below) to continue the move to the upside. As an untested daily, it should produce a reaction on first touch from the top down.

• Warning: Once we get below 7458.50, this thing is in serious trouble — and below 7414, momentum shifts and we start losing support fast.

The Continuation Hold — 4-Hour: 7404.50

7404.50 (4-Hour).

• Context: This is the level we truly need to hold to keep momentum moving higher. If it holds, I think it carries us all the way back up to the 7527 area. In the sequence of events, we tested it the right way — came down, pushed up, came back, and created this support. If they want to play it, we go up from here. If not, it is over.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Hold 7404.50 and look for continuation up toward 7458.50 and ultimately 7527. This is the make-or-break support on the four-hour — lose it and we get very weak.

The Breakdown Leg & Reclaim: 7368.00 - 7373.00

7373.00 (The Leg — Everything Goes Bad Below), 7368.00 (Reclaim Trigger).

• Context: Under 7414, momentum shifts, but it all goes bad underneath the 7373 leg — the level we have been talking about for a couple of weeks now. The 7368 reclaim trigger sits right here as the line we need to recover to keep any bounce alive.

• Actionable Setup: Below 7373, the structure breaks down toward the deeper supports. On any flush, watch for a reclaim back above 7368 as the first sign buyers are stepping back in.

• Warning: Below this leg, get cautious — the bullish thesis weakens considerably and we are likely heading for the deeper zones.

The “Gain Never Tested” — 4-Hour: 7336.50

7336.50 (Untested 4-Hour).

• Context: This is the spot I really like on the downside — a textbook “Gain Never Tested” setup. If we lose 7404.50, this is my next favorite level. I do not think we come straight down to it; more likely we do one of these stair-step moves into it, and I do think it produces a good reaction.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Watch 7336.50 to play, then look to reclaim 7368 (or reject from the 7404 area) and move higher. It does not matter which trigger — we are just trying to make money. This is a clean textbook long if we get down here.

The Deep Untested 4-Hour & Short Target: 7284.00 - 7287.00

7287.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 7284.00 (Untested 4-Hour).

• Context: We have some untested 4-Hour support down here around 7287 and 7284, but I am not in love with these levels. If we are this far down, I am bearish as hell, so this is more of a target area for shorts than a place I am rushing to get long — even though I do think it plays.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long / Short Target: If I am short from above, I will be taking profits into 7287-7284. I would not aggressively long this even though I think it reacts, because if we are way down here, the momentum is broken. Be very cautious once we break 7414 and ultimately 7373.

The Held Launch Zone: 7225.00 - 7264.00

7264.00 - 7225.00 (Big Held Area), 7273.00 (50-Day Moving Average — CTA Buy Zone).

• Context: This is the big area we came down to and held, which launched Thursday’s move back up — the same zone I said if we held, we would go right back up, and lo and behold, we did. The 50-day moving average at 7273 sits right in here, which is a level CTAs and hedge funds love to buy when accumulating trending assets. This is where we came from — important structural context, not a primary forward buy this week unless we round-trip all the way back down.

• Actionable Setup: Reference zone. If price unwinds all the way back into 7225-7264, this is the high-timeframe support that already proved itself once — but require a confirmed hold and reclaim before trusting it again.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

This is as clean a setup as I can give you, so here is the low-down skinny version: it all comes down to 7458.50 on ES (7438 on SPX). Above it, we fill the value box and target the 7527 daily / high-volume-node magnet — and once we are back above 7527, that head-and-shoulders shoulder is massive and the whole upside opens up. To keep the move alive on a pullback, we need to hold 7414 and 7404.50. Below those, we get very weak, it all goes bad under the 7373 leg, and we work down to the 7336.50 “Gain Never Tested” 4-Hour — my favorite downside buy — with 7287-7284 as the deep untested support and short-target zone.

The thing leaning me slightly bullish is simple: they had every chance to dump this market on Friday and they chose not to, and we are sitting on the 50-day moving average at 7273 that the big CTAs love to buy. But this is a Negative Gamma environment — money both ways, huge ranges, violent squeezes. So if you are riding the upside, take profits into 7527; if 7501 smacks on SPX, get out of the way. Watch VIX at the 16.20 monthly pocket for the reaction that tells you which way the make-or-break breaks. Keep it simple, respect the pivots, and let the level decide.

Please sign up for the Funded Trader Blueprint webinar — even if you already understand prop firms, register and win a couple of evaluations. I will see you tomorrow for the post-market breakdown and in the morning on the stream. Have a beautiful rest of your weekend.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 TradingView Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7596.25|WK|W
7542.00|D|D
7527.00|D|D
7458.50|Tested D|TD
7414.00|D|D
7404.50|4HR|4H
7336.50|4HR|4H
7287.00|4HR|4H
7284.00|4HR|4H

Here’s a taste of what we got into:

• The level we’re both stalking. Why I was short all day Friday, the 7501 SPX spot I think gets tagged, and the read that tells us whether this rips to new highs or finally rolls over.

• The regime change. Rob’s quant work flagged something most traders are missing — abnormal volume and size rotations since we tipped over the all-time highs. The market is in a different gear now, and even the algos are feeling it.

• Negative gamma is a gift. Why 100-point swings up and down are the 20-30% of the year where the real money gets made — and why missing one trade doesn’t end your day anymore.

• “38 deals and counting.” The Iran headline circus, why the news is worthless, and the catalyst Bubba thinks actually forces the next leg down.

• The OEX hallway. Bubba takes us back to the floor — the day the biggest options pit in the world opened and they made the new guy trade in the hallway. Pure gold.

• This is a business, not a casino. The racetrack analogy, why you can hit 50/50 and still print money, and the markers-at-the-table mindset that blows accounts up.

• 24/7 markets are coming. The CFTC battle, what it means for premium sellers, and why Bubba says all markets go around the clock by next year.

• The enemy in the mirror. Why I had to use hypnotism to get out of my own way, my own impatient trade from Friday, and the truth about why most “education” is built to create addicts instead of traders.

This one’s loose, honest, and packed. Hit play.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, June 12th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. Once again we called the lows at 7264.00, talking about how this was the area that absolutely needed to hold — and indeed it did, propelling us all the way to 7419.00 for an unreal 150-plus point pop. The other big thing yesterday was that we called the squeeze itself: everybody was still looking lower, yet we anticipated that we had bottomed for the time being and had the entire subscriber list on watch for the squeeze — it was right there in our trade plan title, and it ultimately happened. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s amazing plan.

As we continued to move up, we closed directly underneath 7414.00, setting up a beautiful buy at 7374.00. The London session had different plans, however, playing our 7374.75 Daily with absolute precision at the 3 a.m. London open and pelting us up 75 points into the major area I have talked about for two weeks now — our major Daily leg down at 7458.50. We now find ourselves in an extremely interesting predicament: up 41 points at the time of this writing, sitting directly above the 7414.00 Daily and directly below the 7458.50 Daily, sandwiched in a major resistance area that will truly be the make-it-or-break-it for us today.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do have news at 10:00 a.m. — preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations — which is not Red Tag, but is sure to get a shake. Be aware that Fridays have a tendency to be large days even without Red Tag news, so we will certainly want to expect some volatility.

• Volume: Relative Volume has increased at +15%, which could potentially expand our range today and put us at approximately 70 to 75 points left in today’s range given that calculation.

• Range: Expected range of 142.5 points today — an unbelievable range. We have already moved 76 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 66 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. This is a fairly substantial range, and we need to be prepared for a move.

• Gamma: We sit in Negative Gamma territory once again with the gamma flip level above us, meaning dealers are hedging to the downside. Notably, the flip level has moved down from 7600.00 to 7550.00 — significant considering our last and major untested Daily resistance sits at 7542.00. Dealers are essentially hedging their downside positions right at our highest, most untested Daily.

• Trend: We are up on the 1-Hour and 4-Hour and starting to regain on those smaller timeframes, but we have technically NOT gained on the Daily — and the Daily is always in control. We remain suppressed until we get a Daily close above 7458.50. Sandwiched between 7414.00 and 7458.50, direction is difficult to gauge inside a multi-day balance.

🧠 Current Market Context

Sandwiched at the Ceiling After the Squeeze

Once again we find ourselves in a very interesting position. We played our significant Daily at 7374.75, which catapulted us up over 75 points overnight, and we now sit above our 7414.00 Daily and below our 7458.50 Daily — directly sandwiched in a troublesome area. We are regaining on the smaller timeframes, including the 4-Hour and 1-Hour, which tells us we are trying to bottom out and start to move higher. But we still have not gained on the Daily, and in order for the indices to truly gain, we must have a Daily close above 7458.50. That would put momentum back in the favor of the bulls and get us pointed up on all timeframes again. Just because we got the pop does not mean we have accomplished anything substantial — technically, we are still down on the Daily.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, June 11th, and yesterday was another spectacular display in the trade plan. We called our 7374.75 momentum shift pivot, price barely poked above and then failed, and proceeded to grind below it for the remainder of the day — bringing us down well over 140 points. I truly appreciate every one of you sending DMs thanking me for such accurate trade plans; the process has proven true time and time again, and congratulations on the amazing execution.

Now it’s time to do it all again. As we came into the morning, we actually swept Tuesday’s low in the overnight session — exactly as we discussed in the post-market breakdown just hours before. We swept 7250.00 last night and have already catapulted up to 7340.00 for a stunning 90-point rally, leaving us up 53 points at the time of this writing. After such a significant sweep, we need to be prepared for a potential squeeze today, because we have no other areas of untested support beneath us. The pocket between 7264.50 and 7225.00 is the major story here — this is our last and final leg that took us up to the all-time highs, and even though the whole area is tested, its significance is exactly why it doesn’t surprise me that we got swept overnight and propelled right back higher.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have major Red Tag news this morning at 8:00 a.m. pre-market — a significant inflation print (Core PPI). We need to let the dust settle and figure out what we’re going to play before getting excited, as this can move everything around the open.

• Volume: Relative Volume is estimated at +12%, giving us a slight increase to our potential range today. Nothing extreme, but enough to add a little room on top of an already-large projected range.

• Range: Expected range of 144 points — a massive range. We have already moved 106 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 38 points left above or below the overnight highs or lows. With the placement of the overnight high and overnight low, there is still a significant amount of movement left in today’s range.

• Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma environment with dealers hedging to the downside. The GEX levels are skewed heavily to the downside today — there are a lot of puts being played and very little on the call side, which made it difficult to read the Call Walls. The flip side of that: if we do start to squeeze, it could be violent.

• Trend: Downside lean, still pointed down on all timeframes. We have not gained on the 1-Hour, 4-Hour, or Daily — they all still point down. That said, last night’s sweep and the 100-plus point overnight bounce tell me there is some relative strength here, so we are on squeeze watch even while the bias stays short.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Post-Sweep Squeeze Watch

That sweep last night in ES was very important — I spoke about it in the Discord room right after it happened, noting it could potentially carry us all the way up to 7456.00. We are still absolutely pointed down on all timeframes, having lost on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour, but the sweep underneath the 7250s and the hold of the pocket around 7225.00 is a major area of support. With negative gamma and a GEX profile this skewed to the put side, if we start to squeeze it could be violent. I do not know that we will squeeze — but after four red days in a row, ES is due for a bounce, and even a 120-point bounce from here would leave us very much bearish. We are intraday traders, so we will keep using our above/below levels to gauge momentum shifts and market context.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 10th, and yesterday was one of the most unbelievable days we have seen in the trade plan in a very long time. We called the high right at the 7477.50 ceiling pivot that got swept, and our actionable setup told us to get short as soon as we got below it — which we did, paying over 250 points for an unbelievable pre-market call. From there we came down and played 7414.00 for 30 points, then 7368.00 for another 30 points in long pops on the way down, before finally cascading into our 7264.50 Daily — which aligned with the 7234.50 Daily on SPX that we have talked about for weeks and even covered in the podcast I did with Bubba on June 5th. It played perfectly to the tick and paid 130 points. Between the 250-point sell-off, the two 30-point pops in the middle, and the 130-point pop into the close, it was an absolutely phenomenal display of the trade plan. Kudos to every one of you who executed off of these levels.

As we come into the day today, we find ourselves extremely soft. We have continued to drift down in the overnight session — down almost 90 points at the peak — and we sit down 70 points at the time of this writing. The big story today is the Red Tag inflation print at 8:30 a.m., and with a projected range this large, we need to be ready for volatility from the open.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have major Red Tag news this morning at 8:30 a.m. pre-market with Core CPI Month-over-Month and Year-over-Year. This is an enormous inflation print, and given that we have been moving down in the overnight session, it is sure to create significant volatility. Stay sharp around the release.

• Volume: Relative Volume is extremely elevated at +68%. This essentially creates a much larger move than our base range can indicate — it could blow our range up all the way to roughly 200 points, leaving us approximately 110 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. Prepare for serious volatility today.

• Range: Expected range of 132 points. We have already moved 87.5 points in the overnight session, which normally leaves about 45 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high. However, factoring in the elevated relative volume, this could expand to nearly 200 points total, leaving us roughly 110 points to work with in either direction.

• Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma regime with the gamma flip level all the way up at 7600.00. Dealers are hedging to the downside, preemptively assuming we continue lower. This expands volatility and opens the door for money to be made in both directions.

• Trend: Downside lean. After yesterday’s massive 130-point pop into the close, we did not accomplish anything — we did not gain on the 4-Hour, Daily, or 1-Hour timeframe. We remain extremely soft, below our momentum shift pivot at 7374.75, with dealers hedging to the downside. Without support being gained, we maintain our downside lean.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Failed Pop & The 7374 Momentum Shift

Here is where things get interesting. Yesterday we had a major pop that accomplished absolutely nothing from the lows, sandwiched by a massive 250-point sell-off that brought us right back down. That clearly leaves us with severe downside momentum, especially with options dealers hedging to the downside in this Negative Gamma regime. The picture is clear for now: we are still moving down. After a move that large, we will more than likely digest this range before moving outside of it — but with such a large projected range today, my assumption is that we eventually break outside of it. Which direction we can never know for certain, but for now we are pointing lower.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 9th, and the trade plan was spot on once again. We called the 7414.00 momentum pivot, and as price reclaimed it Monday morning we continued to push and grind higher throughout the day — only to come down and close perfectly at that exact price, 7414.00, our large momentum shift pivot on the Daily timeframe. The plan called it out perfectly. On top of that, our statistical data told us we’d close up on the day by approximately 0.75% on the intraday, and at the peak we got exactly that — the data came through once again. Congratulations to all those who took advantage.

As we sit here this morning, we’ve been balancing sideways all night, still yet to determine a direction after Friday’s big fall as we digest that massive push down. We’re in a strange spot: Friday was a massive day, and yesterday was an inside day that stayed within Friday’s range. Right now we sit directly at yesterday’s point of control, in the middle of yesterday’s range and value area, which is also the middle of Friday’s range and value area — making this a double inside day. The probability of moving outside today’s range is extremely high; whether that’s up or down is what the levels will tell us. Let’s break it down.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news today — it should be a fairly silent session unless we get a geopolitical headline. Trump is already talking about Israel and Iran this morning, so stay on the lookout for volatility from that direction.

• Volume: Relative Volume is -11%, meaning participants are slightly muted, but nothing too exaggerated — we could still see our full range for the day.

• Range: Expected range of 103 points, with a current overnight range of 65 points, leaving us approximately 40 points in the tank above or below the overnight high. As a double inside day, the odds of breaking out of today’s range are extremely high.

• Gamma: The gamma flip has flipped on us — we are now in a Negative Gamma environment. Yesterday we were positive; today the flip level has jumped all the way up to 7600.00, meaning dealers are hedging to the downside this morning.

• Trend: We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes, up only on the Weekly. We’ve lost support across the lower timeframes, which gives us a clear downside lean. That said, balancing yesterday left us very little resistance to play, so patience is key.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Double Inside Day & The Weekly Balance

We find ourselves inside not only Friday’s range but sitting directly at the point of control for yesterday’s range and value area — making this an extremely difficult spot to pick a direction. On the weekly profile, we’re parked in a massive four-week balance area, right at the big three-week point of control we’ve discussed many times, which carries humongous volume. So the back-and-forth in here as we fill out the area we skimmed through on Friday is no surprise. The statistics tell us we won’t stay inside yesterday’s range for long — we’ll more than likely get a move one direction or the other. We are down on the 4-Hour, 1-Hour, and Daily, which keeps me pointed to the downside, and I’m looking for a sweep below 7354.25 at some point. With no Red Tag news, though, it could be a slow and grindy day inside this multi-day, multi-week balance.

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So we are staying very high-timeframe today. We came down hard, the picture has shifted, and we have some genuinely interesting data to work through. Let’s get into VIX, SPX, and ES.

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📊 FREE DATA POST — VIX Closing Above 20% on a Friday I spent about four hours this weekend refining a data study I first ran on Free Alpha Friday: what happens the very next session after a massive S&P free-fall where VIX closes up over 20% on a Friday. The headline: there is a strong historical tendency to rally at least 0.65-0.7% from the cash open to the peak high the next day — though not necessarily from the open, since the average gap is about a half-point lower before the rebound. It is a treasure trove of context for positioning into Monday. It is free — read it once, maybe twice. Link is in this post.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: No specific Red Tag events on the immediate radar — but the internet is in full panic mode after one sell-off, calling for recession and popped bubbles. Relax. There is a lot of support here, we were expecting a liquidation break, and one down day is not a trend change. Continue to monitor for developments into the open.

  

• VIX Data Signal: VIX closed Friday at a rare +39% — a huge move. Historically, when VIX closes above 20% on a Friday after a free-fall, the next session tends to produce a 0.65%+ intraday rally from the open to the peak. Average Monday gap is about 0.5% lower first, meaning we may drift lower in Globex tonight before the rebound. Only two of the historical instances rallied immediately from the cash open.

• Range: Friday was a textbook liquidity break — escalator up over weeks, elevator down in a single session. ES flushed 130-170 points off the break with a vertical, no-volume push down. This is very typical ES behavior: rapid flush, then squeeze back up. We have a gap fill sitting below at 7301 and a longer-term bullish imbalance all the way up at 7787.

• Gamma: We have flipped into a Negative Gamma environment coming into Monday. That means money can be made both ways and ranges will be huge — great for us, but squeezes can be violent, so respect the volatility.

• Trend: We have lost the four-hour, one-hour, and daily timeframes — only the weekly is still up, and we would have to come down quite a bit more to shift that. My process says get short. But I am not crazy bearish — this market is designed to go up, and one sell-off is not the apocalypse. We follow the process, but we are hunting a rebound.
  

🧠 Current Market Context

The Liquidation Break & Hunting The Rebound

Friday was the sell-off we have been waiting on for quite some time, and it played exactly as the process laid out: lose 7542 and 7527 on ES (and 7520 / 7501 on SPX) and there was simply no other choice but to come down, because everything beneath was tested. We took an escalator up over the past several weeks and then took the elevator down in a single session — a classic liquidity break. Now the question is not whether the trend is broken (near-term, it is — we have lost the four-hour, one-hour, and daily), but where we find the rebound. I want to be clear: I am not crazy bearish. This market is designed to go higher, and this looks like an overdone, knee-jerk liquidation. We are hunting the bounce while respecting that we could still leak lower first.

On the weekly TPO, the down move pushed all the way through the five-week structure and tagged the three-week composite value area low at 7358, where we got a small reaction and held into the close. That 7358 composite VAL is a massive reclaim level — there is tons of volume there, and reclaiming it puts us right back in the previous week’s range. Below it, there is a clean gap fill down to 7301. The bigger-picture note: the weekly profile now shows a glaring bullish imbalance up at 7787 — a massive inefficiency that will sit up there for weeks until we eventually climb back through all-time highs. Remember it; we are not getting it this week, but it is up there for the taking.

On SPX, we are starting to lose without a doubt — a close under 7390 was bad, and under 7353 (the final untested leg to this entire move higher) would be even worse. Above us, the backside resistance is the untested 7410 4-Hour and the 7445 area; beyond that, we retest 7501 and 7520. To the downside, as long as we stay under 7329, we continue toward the 7200 range — specifically 7234 (daily), 7207 (4-Hour), and 7200 (daily) — which is roughly another 100 points from Friday’s lows. Below 7200, we could extend another 200 points, but I have a strong feeling 7200 gives us something for the week. The swept leg is the big magnet here: we either sweep these lows and reclaim, or we come down and grab the deeper support. Cross-market, SPX 7329 ≈ ES 7354 for the sweep-and-reclaim play.

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🚨 VIX Analysis: The 23.43-24.70 Rejection Zone

VIX detonated on Friday, closing up a rare +39% at the highs — which is precisely what triggered the data study above. The path it took was exactly the launchpad we mapped: it held the 14.95 monthly, reclaimed the 16.20 midpoint pivot (the major launchpad), and then blasted above the 17.44 monthly ceiling — the last untested level for a long time — which fired it straight through the tested 18.43 and 19.42 dailies as pure momentum markers. Now it sits well above everything, and the question is where it gets rejected.

• The Rejection Zone: 23.43 (Weekly) and 24.70 (Monthly). This is the major area I am watching for Monday — we could gap right into it. This is the spot that will more than likely provide a reaction and chill VIX out for a bit. I am looking for an open into here on Monday and a potential sellback. A rejection of this zone is the cue to get long the indices and ride the rebound.

• The Highest Untested: 25.78 (Untested Daily). This is the highest untested daily, sitting just above the 23.43-24.70 confluence. If VIX pushes through 24.70, this is the next marker before clear skies.

• The Clear-Skies Risk: 30.00 (The Last Final Spot). Above 24.70, I have nothing else for some time — VIX could run all the way into the $30 handle. That would be a real problem for the indices, but it is the lower-probability path. Note that as VIX pops and fades, these upper levels become support — just because VIX spikes here does not mean the volatility event is over; we could pull back, hold these as support, and pop right back up. Watch 23.43-24.70 for the rejection that gives the indices their relief.

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🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are hunting a rebound off an overdone liquidation, but the process still points down and we may leak lower first. The single most important level is 7414 — this is the momentum shift pivot. Above it, momentum flips back to the bulls. Below it, we remain in sell mode and work the deeper buy zones. Our two immediate long entries are 7340 and 7362 for a sweep-and-reclaim squeeze, with my favorite deeper buy being the 7264 daily. On a bounce, take profits into the overhead resistance — we have a lot of it, and we only have a couple of clean places to buy.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Momentum Shift Pivot: 7414.00

7414.00 (Tested Daily — Momentum Shift Pivot).

• Context: This is the single biggest level on the board. The 7414 daily is not just resistance — it is a massive momentum shift level. Two weeks ago, we held this and it sent us right back up to the all-time highs, and the daily chart shows a stack of support reactions right here. If we push above 7414, we shift momentum back into the favor of the bulls.

• Actionable Setup: Above 7414, momentum flips bullish and the 7527 and 7542 break levels become untested-from-below reclaim targets — I would expect a reaction at both on the way back up. Below 7414, we stay in sell mode and let the deeper buy zones set up.

• Warning: Do not get long aggressively until 7414 is reclaimed. Beneath it, the path of least resistance is still lower.

The 4-Hour Reaction & Singles Fill: 7448.00 - 7450.00

7450.00 (Tested 4-Hour), 7448.00 (Daily TPO Inefficiency Target).

• Context: This is a clean reaction zone on a bounce. The 7450 4-Hour played perfectly on the way down, which means it should get a reaction on the way back up. It also sits right with the 7448 daily TPO inefficiency — a large target to fill that cleans up Friday’s massive single-print mess. Lots of confluence here.

• Actionable Setup: If price reclaims 7414 and pushes up, expect a reaction at 7448-7450. This is a take-profit zone for anyone riding the squeeze up from the lower buys.

The Last 4-Hour Leg: 7510.00

7510.00 (4-Hour).

• Context: Above 7450, there is nothing at all until 7510 — the last 4-Hour leg before the major broken levels above. Air pocket between here and 7450.

• Actionable Setup: A reclaim through 7510 opens the door back to the major make-or-break zone at 7527-7542. Treat as a momentum marker on the way up.

The Broken Make-or-Break: 7527.00 - 7542.00

7542.00 (Tested Daily — Friday’s Break Level), 7527.00 (Tested Daily — Friday’s Break Level).

• Context: These are the exact levels we broke on Friday to trigger the flush. Now they sit overhead as resistance from the backside — the make-or-break that defined the entire sell-off. Until we reclaim this zone, the larger bullish structure remains compromised.

• Actionable Setup: A genuine reclaim and acceptance back above 7542 would signal the liquidation is fully repaired and we are back in all-time-high pursuit. Expect significant reactions at both 7527 and 7542 on any push back up.

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🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Composite VAL Sweep & Reclaim: 7354.00 - 7362.00

7362.00 (Long Entry), 7358.00 (Three-Week Composite Value Area Low), 7354.00 (Sweep & Reclaim Level).

• Context: This is the line that held into Friday’s close. The 7358 three-week composite VAL is loaded with volume, and we already got a small reaction off it at the lows. The 7354 is the sweep-and-reclaim trigger — the same concept as SPX 7329. We are due for a flush and a squeeze, and this is where it could ignite.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for a wick/sweep below 7354, then a reclaim back above the composite VAL — this could squeeze us right up into the 7414 momentum shift pivot. If we are still here in the morning, 7362 is one of my two preferred long entries. Be cautious on the squeeze, but this is a real setup.

The Lower 4-Hour/Daily Sweep: 7336.00 - 7343.00

7343.00 (Untested from Bottom), 7340.00 (4-Hour), 7336.00 (Daily — Sweep Candidate).

• Context: If we wick the lows, there is genuine support down here. The 7340 4-Hour is my other preferred long entry, and I think they could sweep the 7336 daily just beneath it. There is support in this band — if price wicks it and starts to reclaim, you will know buyers stepped in.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: 7340 and 7362 are the only two areas I would play for a long if we are still up here in the morning — unless we sweep below them and start to reclaim, in which case I would look to get long and ride runners up toward 7414. Require the reclaim; do not front-run the knife.

The Previous ATH & Gap Fill: 7300.00 - 7301.00

7301.00 (Weekly Gap Fill), 7300.00 (Previous All-Time High / Weekly Swing High).

• Context: If we gap much lower or keep leaking, the 7300 previous all-time high and weekly swing high comes into play, right with the 7301 weekly gap fill. This is a logical magnet for the inefficiency cleanup.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: A push into this area fills the gap and sets up the deeper buy just below. We would want to see it play and reclaim 7300 to get back up into the structure above.

The Favorite Deep Buy: 7264.00

7264.00 (Daily — Favorite Deep Buy).

• Context: This is the daily I have been talking about for multiple weeks, and it looks like it is finally coming — just a few weeks later than when we first flagged it. I like this area very, very well. I do think we come down to at least 7264 at some point, and my eyes will be peeled if we get there.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for a pop off the 7264 daily. This is my favorite deeper buy on the entire board — if price reaches it and holds, it could send us all the way back up. Below 7264, we could extend another ~200 points, but I have a strong feeling this level gives us something this week. We will take it one trade plan at a time if it fails.
  

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📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

Friday was the liquidation break we have been waiting on for quite some time, and the process nailed it from the open — lose 7542 and 7527, and there was nowhere to go but down. Now we hunt the rebound. The data is compelling: when VIX closes above 20% on a Friday after a free-fall, the next session tends to rally 0.65%+ from the open — but remember, the average gap is about a half-point lower first, so we may leak in Globex tonight before the bounce. We do not put the data ahead of the structure, but the two line up beautifully here. I would love to gap down, play a level, and look for a pop to start reclaiming.

Here is the framework. 7414 is the momentum shift pivot — above it, the bulls regain control; below it, we stay in sell mode. Our two clean long entries are 7340 and 7362 for a sweep-and-reclaim squeeze, and my favorite deeper buy is the 7264 daily if we leak that far. On VIX, I am watching for an open into the 23.43-24.70 rejection zone and a sellback — that is the cue to get long the indices and ride the grind up. We are in a Negative Gamma environment now, which means huge ranges and money both ways, but also violent squeezes — so if you are riding the bounce, take profits into the overhead resistance, because we only have a couple of clean places to buy and a lot of resistance above.

Do not feel like you have to jump in immediately Sunday night or even at Monday’s open. Be strategic, let the fear shake out, and let the structure align with the data. One sell-off is not the end of the world — there is a lot of support here, and this is going to present excellent buying opportunities. I am genuinely happy to be out of that range. And don’t forget to read that free data post — there is a ton in there that will help your Monday positioning.

I will see you tomorrow for the post-market breakdown. Stay patient, stick to the high-timeframe levels, and tomorrow we conquer the markets.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 TradingView Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7542.00|Tested D|TD
7527.00|Tested D|TD
7510.00|4HR|4H
7450.00|Tested 4HR|T4
7414.00|Tested D|TD
7340.00|4HR|4H
7336.00|D|D
7264.00|D|D

If you had a position on this afternoon, you felt it. The S&P spent the morning grinding, then the floor gave way — a 200-point slide into the close, down 2.64% on the day. The Nasdaq 100 was uglier, down 4.77% — its worst session since the early-2025 tariff crash. Chips led the bleed: more than a trillion dollars in semiconductor market value erased this week, with Broadcom’s refusal to lift its AI outlook lighting the fuse and a much hotter-than-expected jobs report — 172,000 against expectations near 80,000 — pouring gas on it by sending yields screaming higher. Meta piling on with a multibillion-dollar stock sale didn’t help the mood.

And the fear gauge did exactly what fear gauges do. The VIX closed up 39.68% on the day, finishing at 21.51 — a violent, single-session panic spike, landing on a Friday.

Now everyone goes home for the weekend to stew on it.

Here’s the thing about days like this: they’re built to make you feel something. Fear, urgency, the itch to do something before Monday. I’ve stood on a trading floor through enough of these to know the feeling is the trap. So I do what I always do — I close the platform, and I open the data.

When the VIX panics into a Friday close, what has the next session actually done?

I asked this same question back in October, the last time we caught a Friday washout like this. I published a stat then, and it was directionally right. But if I’m being straight with you, it was blunter than it should have been — so I went back and sharpened it.

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What I Got Wrong the First Time

The October post measured a bounce “on Monday or Tuesday.” Two problems with that.

First, a two-day window is useless for timing a trade. If you’re trying to get long, “it bounces sometime in the next two sessions” doesn’t help you — the market can puke Monday and recover Tuesday, and you’re stopped out long before the edge ever shows up. I need to know what the very next session does.

Second — and this one nagged at me — the old stat counted a “positive close.” But I couldn’t tell you with full certainty whether the measurement keyed off the closing print or the intraday high. That kind of ambiguity is exactly what I won’t put my name behind. So I rebuilt the study from clean data going back to 1996, and I defined the measurement precisely.

The new question: after the VIX closes up 20% or more, how often does the S&P rally from the next session’s open to that same session’s high?

Open to high. Not close.

The market can finish red and still hand you the move I’m measuring. This isn’t “does Monday close green.” It’s “once Monday opens, does it squeeze.”

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The Numbers

Start broad. Going back to 1996, there have been 117 days where the VIX closed up 20% or more. The next session produced an open-to-high rally of at least 0.50% in 75% of them, and at least 0.70% in 61%. A real tendency — but not one to bet the farm on by itself.

Now tighten to the modern regime. Since 2020 — 36 of those events — the rebound gets stronger: an open-to-high pop of at least 0.50% in 86% of cases, and at least 0.70% in 75%. Volatility behaves differently now than it did two decades ago. The dips get bought harder and faster.

But the setup in front of us isn’t just any panic day. It’s a Friday panic day. That’s where it gets interesting.

Since 2020, there have been eight Fridays where the VIX closed up 20% or more. Here’s what the next session — Monday — did, measured open to high:

Eight for eight cleared +0.65%. Seven of eight cleared +0.70% — and the lone “miss,” October 10 of last year, rallied +0.697% off the Monday open. It missed the +0.70% line by three one-thousandths of a percent. I’m not going to insult you by rounding that up and calling it 100% at +0.70%; honestly, it’s 7 of 8. But at +0.65%, every single one delivered.

Now, before anyone tattoos “8 of 8” on their forearm — that’s the modern regime, and I’m not selling it as a law of nature. Stretch the exact minute-by-minute data as far back as it goes, to 2008, and the +0.65% rebound shows up in 15 of 22 Friday events. About 68%. Still an edge. Not a guarantee.

And it isn’t a tidy “old data bad, new data good” story either. The setup worked roughly 71% of the time from 2008 through 2013, broke down hard across 2014 through 2019 — just 2 of 7 — then turned nearly automatic after 2020. Some of the misses were near-things; some weren’t. The August 2015 China-devaluation Monday and the post-Brexit Monday in June 2016 never rebounded in the cash session at all. That’s the honest backdrop — and the useful part of it is this: we are sitting in the regime where this setup has worked best, not the one where it didn’t.

Today’s VIX close of +39.68% sits right in the middle of that range — bigger than most of those eight, smaller than the April 2025 and November 2021 spikes. This is not some unprecedented reading the data has never seen. It is squarely the kind of event this study is built on.

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The Part That Actually Matters

Here’s where the sharpened version earns its keep — and where I think most traders are about to get it wrong.

The edge is not the weekend gap.

It’s tempting to read “Monday rallies” as “buy Friday’s close and ride the gap up.” The data says don’t. Since 2020, Monday opened above Friday’s close in only four of those eight events. Half the time, you’d have walked in Monday morning staring at a gap down — even as the Monday session itself still squeezed.

Look at the two measurements side by side:

Measured from the Monday open, the setup is clean. Measured from the Friday close, it springs leaks — because the weekend gap is close to a coin flip, and one bad gap eats your edge before the rally ever starts.

The clearest example is August 2024. The Friday before, the VIX ripped +25.82%. That Monday, the S&P rallied almost 2% from its open to its high — a textbook squeeze. But Monday opened more than 3.6% below Friday’s close. So if you’d bought Friday into the bell, the Monday high never even brought you back to even. The rebound was completely real. The Friday-close entry was a trap.

That’s the whole lesson in one example: the move lives in the Monday session, not the weekend hold.

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If You Trade Futures, Read This Before Sunday Night

A lot of you are going to be staring at Globex on Sunday evening trying to read the tea leaves. Let me save you the anxiety: the overnight gap has told you almost nothing.

Since 2020, across these eight Friday events, Monday’s cash open came in higher than Friday’s close exactly four times — and lower the other four. A coin flip. The average gap is actually slightly negative, around −0.54%, dragged there by the two sessions that gapped hard down: August 2024 at −3.66% and April 2025 at −2.37%. The median is essentially zero. Widen it to the full sample back to 1996 and the story holds — Monday opened flat-or-higher just 52% of the time, average gap −0.21%.

So here’s the trap built specifically for futures traders: a heavy Sunday-night tape, or an outright gap down, is not a reason to abandon the setup. The two best rebound sessions in the entire dataset — August 2024 and April 2025 — were also two of the ugliest overnight gaps, and the cash session still squeezed off its open for +1.9% and +5.9%. Let a red Globex tape talk you out of the plan and you’d have missed both.

The gap is noise. The cash session is where the move lives. Don’t trade Sunday night’s emotion — wait for Monday to open.

The Stat Is Clean. The Path Isn’t.

But here’s where I have to be honest with you, because that daily stat can lull you into a lazy trade. “Wait for Monday to open” is right. “Buy the open” is not.

I pulled the one-minute path for all eight events to see how SPX traveled from the open to that high. It rarely went in a straight line.

Only two of the eight never traded below the Monday open before reaching the +0.65% target. The other six dipped first — half of them by at least half a percent, and a couple by far more. The average drawdown before the target hit was −0.67%. The starkest case was April 2025: SPX eventually squeezed +5.9% off its open — but only after first trading nearly 2.4% below it. Blindly buy the 9:30 print with tight risk and you’d have been stopped out before the move of the year ever started.

And it isn’t just the dip — it’s the wait. Here’s how long it took to reach +0.65% off the open:

Only three of eight got there in the first half hour. The median event took about an hour and three-quarters; the average, closer to two and a half hours. Two of them — April 2022 and this past March — didn’t trigger until after 3:00 p.m. The rebound window is real. It is not always fast, and it is rarely free.

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So the edge is not “buy the open.” The edge is knowing that after a Friday VIX panic, Monday has repeatedly built a rebound — and then trading the structure that gets you in, not the opening bell.

How I’m Reading Monday

Let me be clear about what this is and isn’t. It’s a price-action tendency, not a guarantee, and eight Friday events is a small modern sample — I’m not dressing it up as destiny. It also says nothing about options. A Friday panic inflates premium, the weekend bleeds theta, and a Monday calm-down can crush implied vol right when you think you’re right. The April 2025 path is the warning shot: a violent dip before the rip is exactly what wrecks a poorly structured options position, even when the direction turns out dead right. If you express this with options, solve that math before you put it on.

Here’s the plan I’m working from.

I’m not anchoring to Friday’s close, and I’m not buying the 9:30 print. I let Monday open, give it the first 15 to 30 minutes to show its hand, and watch one thing: does the first downside push hold above the open, or does price dip and then reclaim it? A failed breakdown, an opening-range reclaim, a move back above VWAP — that’s the structure the historical path keeps rewarding, not a blind buy at the bell.

A dip below the open does not kill the trade. Six of the eight events traded red before they squeezed. What kills it is opening straight down and never reclaiming — if Monday just bleeds through its range with no bid, the tendency failed, I’m flat, and I live to trade the next one.

When the structure shows up, the target is the move the data keeps drawing: roughly +0.65% to +0.70% off the Monday open. Near today’s 7,384 close, that’s about a 7,432 to 7,435 zone — and I reset off the actual open, wherever it prints. I size for the truth in the path data: the rebound can take all session, and it can shake me first.

The headlines are screaming. The data is whispering.

I’ll wait for the open, wait for the structure, and trade the whisper.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

The jobs report that broke logic. U.S. jobs soared 172,000 in May, smashing estimates — and the market puked anyway. Trump raged at the reaction on social media while the Nasdaq bled 3%. We break down why this is the perfect proof of what we preach every stream: the news is worthless. Trade the chart.

Everything is blood. Crude hammered. Gold hammered. Copper stocks down 9%. The Qs down 3.5%. After nine straight weeks of grind-up, this is the first real break in the indices — and the first daily support loss I’ve had on my charts in a long time.

Bubba’s truth bomb on unemployment. Why the official 4.3% number is built on the U3 survey that rolls people off after three months — and why the U6 reading puts the real number closer to 8-10%. Wendy’s closing 350 stores. Meta cutting 14,000 jobs and openings. Do the math.

The Bitcoin tell. Bitcoin leads the ES by two to three weeks — and it topped right where we called it. We talk the 82,500 short and why 45K could be on deck.

My SPX roadmap. The 7412 actionable spot, why 7353 is the trapdoor to 7200 — and below that, nothing until the 6940s. The level Bubba and I have been stalking for months is finally in range.

Radical honesty on a red day. I gave back $600 today after a $9,800 Wednesday. Bubba’s Market Mavericks room just posted its first losing week in two years. We talk about what losing actually means when your process is sound — and why “I want to make $500 a day” is the mindset that kills traders.

This is the rawest one we’ve done. Hit play.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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🎥 Free Alpha Friday — LIVE at 9:15 AM! Don’t forget, we’re running Free Alpha Friday this morning starting at 9:15 AM, streaming live on X, YouTube, and Substack all the way until noon. Come hang out and I’ll give you a real idea of exactly what we do every single day in the inner circle over in the Team Beachy Discord. Make sure you join us!

Morning everyone. Today is Friday, June 5th, and we come off a spectacular display of trade plan amazingness. We called the long and the bullish accumulation before the open even happened, letting all of my subscribers know I was anticipating a bullish reaction in the morning as long as we stayed above the Daily at 7542.00. We did exactly that — back-tested it right at the open and propelled well over 70 points. The beautiful part is it coincided perfectly with SPX at our big daily leg at 7520.00 that we’ve talked about all week long as the key bias area. It came to fruition and rewarded trade plan subscribers handsomely, with multiple five- and six-figure gains reported — calling out an insane bullish move while the rest of X was screaming to the short side. I appreciate everyone’s feedback, and we look forward to doing it all over again.

As we come into the day this morning, ES has sold off in the overnight session and we sit down approximately 41 points, having tested a lot of significant support overnight and leaving us vulnerable. We’re back in yesterday’s range, smack in the middle of last week’s value area — essentially a multi-balance range with a seven- to nine-day look-back period. We’re still trying to accept value here for the next push higher, but with massive Red Tag news in front of us, things can shift fast. Let’s break it down.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: Big Red Tag news at 8:30 AM pre-market — Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payroll / Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate, all before the open. These are some of the biggest Red Tag events of the month and are guaranteed to give us a shake. Let the dust settle and figure out what’s happening before engaging.

• Volume: Relative Volume is up +10%, increasing our expected range by roughly 6.5 points.

• Range: Expected range of approximately 64 points (63.9). We’ve already moved 44 points in the overnight session, leaving us about 20 points in the tank — bumped to roughly a 26-point range above or below the overnight highs or lows with relative volume factored in. However, with this magnitude of Red Tag news, do not count out an oversized move.

• Gamma: We remain in Positive Gamma territory with the gamma flip level at 7500.00, strategically placed directly under the massive structure we’ve held for weeks. Dealers are hedging strongly to the call side — we’re relatively short Put Walls but stacked with Call Walls, signaling heavy call activity as dealers hedge their long positioning off 7500.00.

• Trend: We are pointed up on the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour timeframes. The 4-Hour is showing particular cracks, but even in last night’s selloff we held support — so I am still leaning to the upside for now. This can change very quickly below our critical levels.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Multi-Day Balance & The Make-or-Break Leg

We find ourselves dead smack in the middle of a multi-day, multi-week balance, sitting directly back inside yesterday’s range and the heart of last week’s value area. That makes direction extremely difficult to pick — when everything gets tested and we’re balancing in the middle, we have to lean on our significant levels to monitor for above/below progression rather than force a bias. We will default to the process: technically we are still pointed up, but support is weak, and a flush below our critical levels could happen fast. We are guaranteed to break out of this range at some point today — the question is simply which way.

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