OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everybody. Today is Tuesday, August 4th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. We had our massive momentum shift pivot at 7563.00, which played true yesterday as price was propelled on the Sunday gap up, only to balance sideways directly at our 7553.00 and 7559.50 Dailies. We sat accumulating in the overnight session until the open, which essentially propelled us above the 7563.00 bullish trigger — our Weekly Value Area High — all the way up over 130 points for an extremely intense squeeze. That sent us above our massive areas of resistance and put us approximately 20 points from the all-time highs.

In the overnight drift last night, price accumulated more as it accepted value and made all-time highs as of the time of this writing. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s insane squeeze, as the Bulls took firm control on geopolitical news with Iran and the United States coming to a potential ceasefire agreement once again. The scoreboard in the Inner Circle continued to stay lit up as our members followed the plan and remained extremely bullish over 7563.00. Congratulations to all of you.

Coming into the morning, we find ourselves accepting value once again above our most major support at 7628.00. This was the highest Daily leg down created at the time of rollover, and now we find ourselves all the way back above it, pushing through all-time highs and accepting value at this level. This is going to be a very significant area for us to stay above today if we are going to continue our push higher in search of price discovery — and we still have a significant amount of support below us that we could potentially play for a pop.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of this morning, so we have no volatility-creating headlines to look for. However, we do have a lot of geopolitical news on the horizon as President Trump continues to keep things interesting for our trading day, and we must always be aware of that. The only thing on the schedule is JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 a.m. — not a Red Tag event, but a scheduled news event nonetheless, so be prepared for a shake at that time.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at +3% today, leaving us relatively flat, which means we could potentially meet today’s expected range.

• Range: Expected range of 109 points. We have only moved 28.75 points in the overnight session, leaving us a massive amount of room and putting real opportunity on the table coming into the morning.

• Gamma: We have a change of events today. Our gamma flip level is at 7630.00, essentially directly below our current price and located directly at one of our major levels of support. Being in Positive Gamma territory tends to lead to slow, grindy days, so we must be prepared for that — but also understand that the gamma flip trigger is directly below us and will act as support. If we push too far below it, it will act as a short trigger. This is something we need to monitor coming into the day.

• Trend: We are currently up on all time frames. We have gained on the Daily, the 4-Hour and the 1-Hour, leaving us looking only for buys at this point in time. We are very much in buy-the-dip mode as we have plenty of support below us.

🧠 Current Market Context

Price Discovery Mode & The History Says Warning

Price made a massive push up yesterday and closed firmly above all of it, which leaves us in a very strong position to continue looking for longs only as we go back into price discovery mode. We had a massive close above 7628.00, telling us that this is the way to go. Now we find ourselves sitting in a positive gamma environment and surfing all-time highs as we soon and potentially go into full price discovery.

One thing I want to point out: we had a History Says post come out yesterday, and it is currently leaning bearish. Now, that does not mean that is the direction we should lean, as it is a small sample of less than sixty trades over the course of thirty years — but we should know that history has the potential to produce a mean reversion after yesterday’s massive move. This comes into play precisely because our gamma flip level sits at 7630.00, directly above the Daily level that was so significant for us to close above yesterday at 7628.00.

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This evening we have gapped up pretty high at the Sunday Globex open and came right into our major level of resistance. So let’s take a look at VIX, SPX, and ES and figure out exactly what we are going to play coming into the week.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: Nothing specific flagged on the radar heading into the week. With a gap this size already printed in the Sunday session, monitor the open closely — the reaction to this gap is going to tell us more than any headline will.

• The Gap: We gapped up pretty high at the Sunday Globex open, running from Friday’s 7503 close all the way up into 7560 at the open, sitting around 7548 at the time of this writing. We got to roughly 7559 in the pre-market, which means we have already pushed right into the highest untested four-hour, and we are starting to drift a little lower off of it.

• Range: We remain inside a massive balance — the market continues to get propped up, and we keep getting these pops and smacks inside the structure. From the weekly TPO, above 7563 we can push much, much higher; below 7481.75 we shift down toward the previous weekly point of control and ultimately the 7412 weekly. In between those two lines, we are essentially in the middle and a little indifferent, free to move back and forth.

• Gamma: We will have to wait and see what happens coming into Monday with the gamma regime. With VIX way down in the dumps and the market getting another little lift, it is going to be very interesting — I am not going to pretend to know before we get the read.

• Trend: Starting to regain. In my opinion we could potentially say that both ES and SPX have now gained on the four-hour and the daily timeframes. That is a meaningful shift from where we have been, and it is why we are going to spend real time this week talking about what happens if we move higher — the possibility is genuinely there.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Gap Into Resistance & The Two Lines That Define The Week

We come into the week of August 3rd having gapped up hard into our major level of resistance, and the structural picture has genuinely shifted. As usual, I want to start with the weekly TPO, because the weekly value areas give us a very defined edge for where things can shift — and right now they give us two lines that define everything.

The first is the upside line. Per last week, we were bullish basically above 7560, and that has now shifted slightly up to 7563. I truly feel that above this area we can continue to push much, much higher. We are at 7548 on this gap up and actually pushed all the way into 7560 at the open, so this is still our big above/below line. It is not necessarily bearish below — it is more that we are very bullish above.

The second is the downside line, and it is the one that decides it: the Previous Weekly Value Area High at 7481.75. This is a huge spot, and I have a massive untested area sitting right here that is very, very important. It is essentially the same spot I show you on SPX that made the difference at that weekly — the exact same context. If they move below 7481.75, we will continue to move much lower, easily get the previous week’s point of control, and more than likely slip all the way down into the 7413.50 Previous Weekly Value Area Low. And that price should be familiar to everyone: our big weekly we have been monitoring sits at 7412, so it is no coincidence the previous weekly VAL is right there. We are extremely bearish underneath 7413.50 and the 7412 weekly. You can see that large shelf on the profile — it makes all the difference. Above it, our bullish structure is intact; underneath it, things shift greatly to the downside. And above 7481.75 but below 7563, we find ourselves in the middle and a little indifferent, able to move back and forth.

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On SPX, we have got ourselves some support, but we also find ourselves in a massive resistance area. The 7515 spot is truly a big area for us and is one of the big leg downs. Here is what matters: we are now back above the 7464 area, and we clearly tested 7476 for the pop up into our big major resistance. But what they have done is leave 7464 untested if we are in fact going to move higher — this was a solid gain above the level, and it is why I say SPX and ES have gained on the four-hour and daily. 7464 is prime for a pop; we want to get back above 7476 for continuation higher, taking us through the 7515 area. Push above 7515 and we basically shift momentum back to the upside — at that point be extremely cautious of shorts, because it might just pull back into the daily only to come right back higher. I have one last untested area at 7537 that could play for a reaction. Once we are above 7537, it is my belief we more than likely make all-time highs, as the only thing higher is a big weekly that has already played at 7580 — they could come up here and get a little head bump only to move higher into new all-time highs.

On the SPX support side, below 7464 we have the last stand area, and this is very important. It is essentially a major momentum shift area and indeed the lowest untested area — the spot I believe has to hold if we are going to continue moving higher. That is the daily and four-hour I like very well at 7447 and 7441. Remember, 7447 was the big daily that kept us contained not one day, not two, not three, but four days, keeping the lid on things as price pushed into it — so I truly believe it will be great from the top down. The 7441 four-hour sits right in the middle of that valley and I really like it too; it is very sexy to me. If they want to pull it back into the pocket, we have the 7431 weekly, which is tested, but I like the location and the confluence. Most importantly, we have our last and final one-hour at 7428, the current leg to the high — the last untested area. So: 7447 through 7441 is our first zone, then they could come all the way down to 7428 to try again, with our big profit-taking area at 7476 on the push higher. Underneath 7428, this thing can get ugly and get ugly fast. I have one untested four-hour at 7381 that lines up perfectly with a ton of structure — it could get a reaction, but it will more than likely just take us back up to the 7431 weekly for a big head bump. Below 7381 and the 7352 weekly, we continue to point lower, with nothing left untested until the four-hour and daily leg at 7316. Below that, we more than likely make new lows underneath 7275 and ultimately 7225.

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🚨 VIX Analysis: The 16.20 Floor Break

VIX has been coming down for quite some time and just continues to get beat up as this market gets propped up inside the balance. The big one, as always, is 17.44 — and we are now well below this level. More importantly, we are now beneath the 16.20 lower floor area as well. That close below on Friday was a big move for us, and it is obviously one of the reasons we gapped up so large coming into the Sunday session.

• The Downside Target — Last Untested: 15.03 (Untested Daily) and 14.95 (Weekly). I am obviously eyeing below 16.20, assuming we come down and touch this untested daily at 15.03 and ultimately the weekly at 14.95. This is the last untested area I have for some time, since we really have not charted anything lower than the $15 handle — every time we come down here, we get pops out of that $14-$15 handle range I have talked about time and time again. It is my belief that if we get down there, we more than likely get another pop from around the $15 range, simply out of market dynamics and understanding that VIX is a little oversold at this point. Do I believe we could come down here? Yes. In which order? That is yet to be seen — but this is certainly an area to keep an eye on.

• The Reclaim Ladder: 16.20 (Monthly) and 16.64 (Daily). These are our significant areas to watch on the way back up. I am not obsessed with the 16.64 daily other than using it as a monitoring pivot for above/below, but above 16.20 is going to give us some momentum, and then 16.64 after that.

• The Big Line: 17.44. Once we get back to the big 17.44, we watch this area closely, because 17.44 is inherently bearish for the indices. A big push over 17.44 is going to send VIX higher and there is nothing left to stop it — we do not have anything untested until we get all the way to 20.66.

• The Ceiling Above: 18.50 and 19.42. We have used the 18.50 and the 19.42 more times than once, and the 19.42 has proven itself time and time again to be an excellent ceiling — that will be a big pivot to get above or below on the way up, ultimately just to come test the 20.66. Will we get up there at some point this week? I do not really know. My assumption is yes, but we will have to see how our structure levels play out in between.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We gapped straight into resistance, so this week is about respecting two lines and trading the range between them. Above 7563 we are very bullish and the door opens to the monster untested daily/weekly combo at 7596.50 - 7599.25. 7481.75 is the make-or-break — the Previous Weekly VAH holding the confluence of the daily at 7488.75 and the four-hours at 7486.75 and 7483. That either holds and we pop back up, or we shift momentum back down and could potentially come much, much lower. Our three primary support areas on a pullback are 7524, 7507, and the 7481.75 - 7488.75 confluence. Below that, there is no untested support at all until 7380.

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🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Highest Untested 4-Hour: 7561.00

7561.00 (Highest Untested Four-Hour).

• Context: We have already pushed all the way up into 7561 to play this highest untested four-hour — or at least extremely close to it, getting to about 7559 in pre-market — and we are starting to drift a little lower off of it. This was a pretty massive gap all the way up from the 7503 Friday close.

• Actionable Setup: Watch the reaction here. A rejection off 7561 into the cash session keeps us contained inside the balance and points us back toward the support areas below. Acceptance through it puts the bullish trigger directly in play.

The Bullish Trigger: 7563.00

7563.00 (The Big Above/Below Line).

• Context: Per last week we were bullish above 7560, and that has shifted slightly up to 7563. I truly feel that above this area we can continue to push much, much higher. It is not necessarily bearish below — it is more that we are very bullish above. We pushed all the way into 7560 at the open, so this line is live right now.

• Actionable Setup: If we push higher than 7563, regardless of what plays below, we ultimately have the big untested daily/weekly spot above in play. This is your gate for the entire bullish scenario.

The Monster Spot — Last Untested High-Timeframe: 7596.50 - 7599.25

7599.25 (Weekly), 7596.50 (Untested Daily).

• Context: This is the big untested daily/weekly spot we dealt with a couple of weeks back, and it is a monster spot. It is ultimately the last and highest untested high-timeframe marker I have before we get to all-time highs. This level is massive — 7596.50 / 7599.25 is nothing to sneeze at, and it could absolutely play.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If this plays on the way up, we know the massive area of support is at 7563 — I would expect a pullback into 7563 as the final. From there, let price determine whether they continue to move lower, which would put us back with momentum down underneath 7560, or whether we hold and continue to traverse higher into all-time highs.

The Last Daily Leg Down: 7628.00

7628.00 (Tested Daily — Last Daily Leg Down).

• Context: If they push above 7599, we come into the last daily leg down at 7628. It is ultimately tested and has already played.

• Actionable Setup: Expect maybe a little head bump here, and then a continuation to make new all-time highs above 7648. This is the final marker before price discovery.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The First Support — Untested From The Top Down: 7524.00

7524.00 (Daily — Technically Untested From Top Down).

• Context: This one should be familiar to anyone who has played this with me over the past few weeks. We got a perfect touch here that led us down to the lows prior — this was a big daily we were monitoring to the left for above/below, and that was a perfect test. Right now it is technically untested from the top down, which makes it a huge target for us from a short up here.

• Actionable Setup: This is the first of my three real support areas. Watch for a reaction on a pullback into 7524, and use it as the first downside target if we are fading the gap from above.

The Second Support: 7507.00

7507.00 (Familiar Structural Support).

• Context: The next of my three support areas, and this one should also be familiar to everyone. It sits between the 7524 daily above and the big confluence zone below.

• Actionable Setup: Use 7507 as the intermediate above/below marker on a pullback. Holding here keeps the pullback orderly; losing it puts the make-or-break confluence directly in play.

THE MAKE-OR-BREAK — P.W. VAH & Daily/4-Hour Confluence: 7481.75 - 7488.75

7488.75 (Daily), 7486.75 (Four-Hour), 7483.00 (Four-Hour), 7481.75 (Previous Weekly Value Area High).

• Context: This is the last and final spot, and it is the one that decides the week. The daily at 7488.75 stacks with two four-hours at 7486.75 and 7483, and the Previous Weekly Value Area High at 7481.75 lines up perfectly with that 7483 four-hour. This is the exact same context as the SPX 7428 / 7431 area — extremely important to stay above or move below in terms of bearish or bullish momentum. Underneath here, I start to shift more to the bearish side.

• Actionable Setup: As long as we stay above 7483, we could continue this push up. That either holds and we pop back up, or we shift momentum back down and could potentially come much, much lower.

• Warning: Underneath this zone, I do not have any more untested support — it is all gray and red until we get all the way down to 7380. If we push below, we have nothing else for some time and we could come down into the previous weekly point of control and ultimately shift all our momentum back down to the 7412 weekly.

The Weekly Reclaim Zone: 7401.00 - 7413.50

7413.50 (Previous Weekly Value Area Low), 7412.00 (Tested Weekly — The Big One), 7401.00 (ETH Daily Buffer).

• Context: The 7412 weekly is definitely tested, but it is an important weekly as it has been time and time again — and the 7413.50 Previous Weekly VAL sitting right on top of it is no coincidence from a profile perspective. It could certainly get another reaction here. Directly below, I have one more area at 7401 to keep an eye out — it is kind of a little buffer that came from an ETH daily chart.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: This is a real reaction zone. If we reclaim 7412, we will more than likely squeeze significantly hard. That reclaim is the trigger — do not anticipate it, but be ready for it, because the squeeze off this level has real fuel behind it.

• Warning: We are extremely bearish underneath 7413.50 and the 7412 weekly. Below this shelf, things shift greatly to the downside.

The Reset Leg End: 7376.25 - 7380.00

7380.00 (Leg End — Technically Reset & Untested), 7376.25 (Four-Hour).

• Context: The leg end at 7380 is technically reset and untested once again, and it has a four-hour at 7376.25 right with it. I do believe this area could get a reaction. It is not my favorite area, but it is certainly a spot that could potentially play.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: Keep an eye on this area for a bounce. Watch the reaction, and remember the 7412 reclaim above is what turns a bounce into a real squeeze.

• Warning: If they push below the 7376.25 four-hour, we will come much lower and retest the ultimate lows below.

The Ultimate Lows: 7336.00

7336.00 (Ultimate Lows — Liquidity Retest).

• Context: Below 7376.25, we come down to retest those ultimate lows at 7336, just to see if there is some liquidity down here. This is by far not my favorite spot — and as much as I do think it could get a reaction, since it is the same spot we talked about on SPX, I would just be very cautious here.

• Actionable Setup: Short Target: Ultimately use 7336 as a short target rather than a conviction long. It could pop back up and play the 7380-ish area for a final target, but do not build a thesis around it holding.

The Deep Target: 7313.75

7313.75 (Weekly Value Area Low), plus the 100-Day Moving Average.

• Context: I did not even mark much lower than this, because we were ultimately targeting this weekly value area low at 7313.75 as one of our major lows, and we talked about coming all the way down to the 100-day moving average last week.

• Actionable Setup: This is the structural deep target for the full downside scenario. We will discuss it in more detail as we get closer to these lows, if it does in fact happen when the time comes.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

We kept this one nitty gritty — SPX, VIX, and ES, all refined — and we know exactly where things go bad. On SPX, we have that weekly and four-hour/daily area with the weekly as the main above/below spot. And on ES, we have that Previous Weekly Value Area High at 7481.75 holding the confluence for all those four-hours and the daily. That either holds and we pop back up, or we shift momentum back down and could potentially come much, much lower. That is the whole week in one sentence.

Above, the picture is equally clean. Above 7563 we are very bullish, and that opens the door to the 7596.50 / 7599.25 monster — the last and highest untested high-timeframe marker before all-time highs. If that plays, expect the pullback into 7563 as the final, and then let price decide whether we roll back under 7560 or hold and traverse into new highs above 7648. On the downside, the three supports to work are 7524, 7507, and the 7481.75 - 7488.75 confluence — and remember, below that confluence there is no untested support at all until 7380. The 7412 weekly is the one to watch on any flush, because a reclaim there will more than likely squeeze us significantly hard. Keep VIX front and center: we broke the 16.20 floor on Friday, we are eyeing the 15.03 / 14.95 last untested area with a likely pop out of the $15 handle, and 17.44 remains the line that is inherently bearish for the indices.

Now that we are starting to regain on timeframes and VIX is way down in the dumps, the market obviously has another little lift to it. We will wait and see what happens coming into Monday with the gamma regime — that will be very interesting. And do not forget to grab the free SPX Morning Brief so you are fully prepared before the bell every single morning.

I appreciate you all joining me. I will be there Monday for the post-market breakdown at 5 p.m., and then of course you get your trade plan first thing Tuesday morning at 8:30. For my peeps in the Inner Circle — I cannot wait to crush the market with you guys tomorrow. Enjoy your Sunday, and tomorrow we conquer the markets.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

📊 TradingView Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7628.00|Tested D|TD
7599.25|WK|W
7596.50|D|D
7561.00|4HR|4H
7524.00|D|D
7488.75|D|D
7486.75|4HR|4H
7483.00|4HR|4H
7481.75|P.W. VAH|GD
7413.50|P.W. VAL|GD
7412.00|Tested WK|TW
7401.00|D|D
7376.25|4HR|4H

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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📺 It’s Free Alpha Friday. Join us on the live stream and let’s take on the last session of the month together.

Good morning everyone. Today is Friday, July 31st — and it is also the last day of the month. Yesterday we had a most incredible squeeze. After a 150-point selloff from FOMC, they ended up sweeping the lows, holding our SPX Daily leg at 7312.74 and the 4-Hour on ES at 7336.50, and were able to open back above the very significant Weekly at 7412.25 on ES. That led to a massive squeeze all day, catapulting us up almost 150 points and sending us all the way into our highest and most untested resistance that we were looking for earlier in the week.

This was the most incredible short squeeze we’ve seen in a long time — and we had it nailed. We were able to warn subscribers ahead of time based not only on the GEX skew, but on our History Says posts and on being above or below the significant areas where momentum shifts. We knew this squeeze was a potential, and we warned subscribers in the trade plan title and throughout the plan yesterday. Congratulations to all those who heeded the warning and were able to take advantage of that intense move up. We were also able to grab a sweet short off of the 7446.00 Daily/4-Hour that paid 45 points in the middle of a massive up move — a huge score for Team Beachy. Our subscribers put up insane points once again, even in a massive squeeze situation. Team Beachy conquers the markets.

As we come into the morning, we drifted up in the overnight session and were up 30 points, leading us all the way into our significant highest untested 4-Hour at 7519.25 — the massive 4-Hour we were looking to play last Tuesday — as well as the Daily leg down at 7507.75. Price has now gone up and flirted with both of our goals, which is the very important and significant area we need to get above and hold above if price is going to continue its upside move. We are at an extremely critical point right now, as the high of the Globex session is essentially the area the Bulls need to move higher than if they are going to continue their momentum. Or the Bears could take back over this morning and erase the entire up move from yesterday. It strictly depends on whether we can hold certain important Daily structure for support, or move above important Daily resistance for continuation higher.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of. However, we do have the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m., and at 10:00 a.m. we have revised Consumer Sentiment and revised Inflation Expectations. Even though these are not Red Tag events, they are sure to cause some volatility as we find ourselves at the highs of yesterday’s insane squeeze — a squeeze that truly accomplished nothing in terms of our process.

• Volume: Relative Volume is flat at -5%, meaning we could truly expect our full range to be met today.

• Range: Total range of 106.5 points. We have moved 49.5 points so far, leaving us approximately 55 to 57 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. That is a fantastic range and gives us plenty of opportunity to make money today.

• Gamma: We are currently still in Negative Gamma territory. Our gamma flip level is still at all-time highs at 7650.00, meaning dealers are still hedging to the downside and are still in a position to want to lean to the short side — giving us expanded volatility and increased ranges, meaning money can be made in both directions. I encourage caution here, as in my opinion we have just approached a major short spot.

• Trend: Downside lean. Yesterday’s pop did not gain us the 4-Hour or the Daily time frame, which are the time frames we have in control. All signs still point down, and we are hitting a massive area of resistance. I am leaning to the downside for now until we get above 7519.25.

🧠 Current Market Context

A Squeeze That Gained Nothing & An End-of-Month Friday

Here is the honest read on where we sit. Price moved up yesterday in rapid fashion, squeezing all the shorts who were looking to the downside and making them pay. But we accomplished absolutely nothing. Price pushed all the way up into our highest untested 4-Hour that we were looking to get played on Tuesday. That level has now been played in the overnight session at 7519.25, and it has led us all the way back down to the Daily at 7485.25.

Please remember this: the 7519.25 above us is the 4-Hour we need to close above in order to regain support on the 4-Hour time frame. If price does not close above 7519.25 on the 4-Hour, we have still not gained on the 4-Hour and we are currently still pointing down. That is the whole ballgame for the Bulls today. Meanwhile, the 7485.25 Daily is our major momentum shift pivot — it was important on Wednesday, many times throughout last week, and on Tuesday as well. Above or below 7485.25 is going to be everything for us today, and we are going to monitor it with a vengeance.

Also be aware that it is the end of the month. This is a huge event. We tend to see a lot of funds and other large position holders shore up their profits toward the end of the month as they have to make good for their clients. The end of the month and Fridays both tend to be extremely volatile days. We need to be very careful, very patient, and wait for our setup.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning everyone. Today is Thursday, July 30th. Yesterday we had FOMC and, believe it or not, the trade plan still played perfect — proving that the VICI Impact Protocol system you know and love is damn near algo proof. I know we have a rule that we take FOMC and the afternoon session off, but even the morning session was fantastic, with a big break below 7458.00 that paid over 90 points for the beautiful call at the open. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the pre-FOMC action — and of course, to those who couldn’t resist, we had a fantastic short from the 7481.00 4-Hour that we called in the Inner Circle and that paid well over 150 points by the end of the day. Just a miraculous display of trade plan perfection on the ES. Not to mention the gorgeous smack from 7447.50 on SPX that led us directly down to our main target to close at 7312.75, which was ultimately our major downside Daily target from the plan. Everything worked out perfectly and we could not have been happier with the way things unfolded.

As we come into the morning, we find ourselves holding that Daily at 7312.74 on SPX, just like I talked about in the post-market breakdown, and on ES holding the major 4-Hour at 7336.50 — that was the big and main support I had on the 4-Hour time frame underneath 7412.25. That level in fact did hold all evening, and we are up 45 points at the time of this writing. We ended up popping from the 7336.50 4-Hour and reclaiming the massive Weekly and Daily swing low at 7357.25, only to push higher into our 7380.75 Daily and come back down to retest 7357.25 and catapult us back up above 7380.75 to sit at a very important spot directly below our 7412.25 Weekly.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We have major Red Tag news this morning before pre-market. Advanced GDP at 8:30 a.m. as well as Core PCE — guaranteed to provide a massive reaction. These are two huge numbers: one involves our country’s productivity and the other involves our country’s inflation. They go hand in hand, and they land right on the tail of FOMC yesterday after a firm rate announcement for this quarter.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at an increased rate this morning of +29.3%, meaning we could get approximately a 30% larger move than already calculated — expanding our remaining range from 25 points to somewhere around 32.5 to 33 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. That gives us plenty of range today to make major profits if we stick to and follow the plan.

• Range: Expected range of 96.5 points. We have currently moved 71 points, leaving us approximately 25.5 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows before the relative volume adjustment above.

• Gamma: We have dealers hedging to the downside in a massive Negative Gamma push, as we have been experiencing for weeks now. The negative gamma is starting to show its teeth — dealers hedging to the downside, but also providing expanded ranges and volatility in both directions, as we’ve already seen this morning with a pop of over 50 points off the lows.

• Trend: Extremely bearish. We are still currently down on all time frames. Yesterday we officially closed well below the 7412.25 Weekly and the 7380.75 Daily, leading us to an extremely bearish look coming into this session.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Options Volatility Cap & The One-Sided Put Skew

Two things from the data this morning that I want everyone to understand before we touch a single level.

First, based on our options volatility levels, you will notice we have already touched the second standard deviation to the upside for ES, which means we have a 90% chance of not closing below 7280.00 to the downside today. Even though we are currently looking for shorts, understand the potential range and follow-through that riding the trend to the downside can provide — and know where we should be taking profits and how far this move could realistically go. The probability of an all-out flush today is low.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning. Today is Wednesday, July 29th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. We had the 7458.50 Daily as our big momentum shift pivot, leading us lower as long as we were below it — and yesterday at the open that proved fruitful indeed. 7458.50 provided insane resistance, taking us all the way down over 45 points to sweep the overnight low, which was a perfect call in the trade plan. Price then projected right back up to play our 7484.00 4-Hour and our 7485.00 Daily for a perfect high of the day. We gave you the midpoint pivot, the low of the day, and the high of the day — all in the trade plan.

Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this amazing plan yesterday, as it proved fruitful for many. I saw the scoreboard light up in the Inner Circle and received many thanks from individuals who are subscribers, and we look forward to bringing you another fantastic trade plan today as we conquer these markets.

Coming into this morning, we have had a fairly volatile evening as price moved around significantly, bouncing above our 7458.00 significant momentum pivot. We sit here bouncing between the 7485.00 Daily and the 7458.00 Daily, still in balance from yesterday. Looking at the TPO, we find ourselves once again with a ridiculous four-day balance, and the overnight session leaves us dead in the middle of yesterday’s value and sitting right at yesterday’s point of control. Essentially, since last Thursday, we have gone absolutely nowhere. All we have done is drift back and forth as price accepts value while we wait for this massive rate announcement today — which is the first rate announcement by our new FOMC head. This was actually expected, as we talked about on the Week in Review and on Monday.

Before we get into it, I want to put a disclosure out there: I personally do not day trade. I have always lost more money than I have made, and so I now have a rule to take one or two trades before twelve noon and then shut the computer off and come back the next day after the dust has settled. This has always provided me with the best results, and without telling you what to do, I would suggest taking advantage of that advice — especially today.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news pre-market, but we have a very large Red Tag announcement today. FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m., followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. It is sure to be an extremely volatile afternoon. This morning will more than likely be muted, so the idea is to get our money this morning before noon and get out of the way — let the algos wrestle with the FOMC announcement.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at +3%, meaning relative volume is flat today. We should be expecting a full range of at least 86 points, and there is a high probability we exceed that with FOMC, as this is always an outlier day and has a tendency to meet or exceed expectations on a regular basis.

• Range: Expected range of 86.5 points. We have already moved 62.5 points, leaving us approximately 24 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Gamma: We are still in a Negative Gamma regime. Our gamma flip level sits well above us at all-time highs at 7650.00, telling us dealers are still hedging to the downside — leaving the door open for expanded ranges, increased volatility, and a significant amount of action and money to be made in both directions.

• Trend: Downside lean. We are still pointed down on all time frames except the Weekly, with the Daily, 4-Hour and 1-Hour time frames still pointing us lower.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Four-Day Balance & The Middle-of-the-Range Problem

The ES once again maintains a very bearish lean to the downside. We have not gained on the Daily, 4-Hour or 1-Hour time frames. However, we continue to stay propped up from the Weekly at 7412.25. We are directly back in the middle of a four-day balance, and looking at the overnight price action, it remains in balance. We are currently holding directly at the major momentum shift pivot at 7458.50 — literally sitting on top of it right now as we speak — and that level goes in combination with the 7455.00 Previous Weekly Value Area Low.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Good morning, everybody. Today is Tuesday, July 28th, and we come off another record-breaking day yesterday. Price popped exactly as our data told us it should on the Sunday open and gravitated directly to the 7524.25 Daily. We have known this Daily very well over the past few weeks, and it once again played to the tick. Price then hovered above 7507.00 until the open — which was our short trigger in the Weekend Review. At the open, price immediately cascaded below 7507.00 and fell well over 100 points in the first three hours of the morning, cascading us all the way to new lows underneath Friday. It was a day of trade plan perfection.

Congratulations to all those who took advantage of that call. We had another ridiculous day in the Inner Circle as the scoreboard continued to put up massive numbers, and our Inner Circle team and Substack subscribers continued to make new heights. It was a glorious day, and I salute you all.

Coming into this morning, we continue to base sideways. We are still below our significant momentum Daily pivot at 7458.50, yet remaining firmly above the Weekly that has kept this whole thing together at 7412.25. This is the exact same situation we had Thursday and Friday. Since Thursday we have now had three sessions — Thursday, Friday and Monday — in which we have stayed relatively beneath 7458.50, only popping above it for brief moments. The overnight session has moved sideways all night long inside yesterday’s value area with a very tight range of only 37 points. With a relatively large expected range and a relatively muted current range, I am certainly anticipating somewhat of a move today.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news events to speak of today. We do, however, have Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. — it is not a Red Tag event, but it should be noted for potential volatility. More importantly, tomorrow is FOMC, a massive rate announcement, and the market is clearly waiting to see what happens.

• Volume: Relative Volume is coming into the day at 15.8%. That is muted, but if relative volume continues to hold strong it could increase our expected range today slightly — do the math on it as the session develops.

• Range: Expected range of 81 points. We have only moved 37 points in the overnight session so far, leaving us approximately 44 points left above or below the overnight high or low. That gives us plenty of room for today’s action.

• Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma, as has been the constant regime. Our gamma flip level sits at 7625.00, meaning dealers are hedging to the downside, giving us expanded ranges and a downside lean. When we get Negative Gamma volatility, we have the ability to play both directions and make money from both the long and the short.

• Trend: Downside lean. We are down on all time frames — we have lost support on the Daily, 4-Hour and 1-Hour — keeping our overall bias pointed down and bearish. That does not mean we can’t get squeezes to go test what was left untested on yesterday’s move down, but we defer to the downside until the Bulls move above something significant and actually hold it.

🧠 Current Market Context

Coiled Inside Value Ahead of FOMC

We are still currently down on all time frames, and we have not gained anything of significance — we continue to lose levels as we walk down. The ES has balanced at the lows all evening and has done so since last Thursday. We find ourselves coiled tight inside yesterday’s value area, and price is prepared to make a move. Holding the lows in the overnight session and technically playing the 7412.25 untested Weekly last week makes it clear why we continue to base sideways: the Bulls and the Bears are digesting this massive move down. We have a significant amount of resistance above us and very limited support below us.

One thing that has to be front of mind: tomorrow is FOMC. As of right now, with lower oil prices, the expectation is that the Fed holds the rate decision — but that is not a guarantee. If they maintain, nothing changes. Any kind of pivot in the announcement and it will be huge. With that being said, we could find ourselves getting a muted move today in anticipation of a massive move tomorrow. We need to expect the worst and know that with limited news this morning, the market can sit in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrow.

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We find ourselves still in the middle of a massive balance. I know we had this big move down, which is certainly leading us lower, and you guys know I have been on this for a couple weeks now — I still believe we can go lower. However, that does not mean we cannot squeeze higher first. We have some significant above/below levels to pay attention to, so let’s take a look at VIX, SPX, and then ES, and wrap this thing up so we can go enjoy the day.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: I do not believe there are any crazy geopolitical headlines on the rise, but I could be wrong — I have been a little out of touch this weekend. We will see where we open Sunday evening, so monitor the open before committing to anything.

• Positioning: Friday’s move down left some very useful trapped liquidity above us. They trapped roughly 2,400 buyers up at the 7489.75 one-hour and another 1,800 to 2,000 buyers just beneath it, and up at the highs they trapped a staggering 4,600 buyers. Those pockets are fuel — when price comes back up into them, we should get an inverse reaction, which is exactly what we want for our shorts.

• Range: We are still in a multi-week balance. Friday’s close finally got us outside of last week’s range, but looking across the weekly TPO, we are not out of it yet. There is a TPO area down at 7313.75 that I think we can target — it is about 120 to 130 points from here, but I do foresee us coming down to clean it up.

• Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma. We will more than likely get rotations in both directions, because that is what we do in this regime — we balance, find the inefficiencies, and fill them. That means expanded ranges and expanded volatility, so be aware of it.

• Trend: Down on all timeframes except the weekly, which is in balance. We are down on the daily, the four-hour, and the one-hour — and this applies to both SPX and ES. Technically speaking, our process says do not buy. We are only looking for shorts. Take the longs where you can get them, but know they will be muted, take your profits, and do not expect crazy runners. Our process has not proven us wrong this far.

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🧠 Current Market Context

The Multi-Week Balance & What Losing Levels Looks Like

Here is the honest structural read: we are still in the middle of a massive balance. I know it did not feel that way after the big move down, but the weekly TPO shows it plainly — other than finally closing outside last week’s range, we have been drifting sideways for weeks and we are not out of the woods yet. That is why we lean on the structure. My process is pointed down on the daily, four-hour, and one-hour, with only the weekly still in balance, and it has not proven us wrong so far. Of course we are going to get squeezes — I call them bear market squeezes even though we are not in a bear market — but as long as you pay attention to the lines we are above and below, every pop right now is smackable.

Let me describe the pattern we are living in, because it explains the entire week ahead. We stay up in a range, then we lose a level. We pop back up and smack the level we just lost. We cannot get back above it — so now we smack, and we come down to the next level. We lose another level, they pop us up again, and we are still below all of it. That is what it looks like to lose levels, and that is exactly the sequence we are trading. Each of these overhead zones is now a resistance zone rather than support: 7455-7458.50, then 7485-7489.75, then 7504.50-7507, then 7524, then 7544-7545, then 7553-7561. Walk down the ladder and you can see the whole story.

On SPX, we had an amazing short on Thursday. They played the 7447 and brought us all the way back down into the 7374 area to find support — a phenomenal display of trade plan perfection worth 75 points. On Friday we called a potential bottom in a squeeze, and that is exactly what we got as they ran us into our big resistance, but ultimately kept us suppressed underneath the 7447 daily and the 7431 weekly. That weekly is the same one that provided the squeeze two Fridays ago, and even though it is tested, it is very important — it has held this price up for some time, and we use it as our marker. Below 7431, she is in trouble and we come back down into the 7370 area. We do have an untested four-hour at 7441: if they pop up in here, stay below 7447, play 7441, and get back below the weekly at 7431, we could continue to peel off to the downside. Getting above 7441 and 7447 leads us into two big untested dailies at 7483 that we should absolutely watch for a smack — I would still short them, but I would take profits in that area and look for price to continue lower. Above the 7483 dailies is my last true short zone: 7515, which is very much untested. I remain bearish below 7515 — back above it really puts the wind back in the bulls’ sails. On the deeper timeframes, we had a beautiful touch on the monthly and played it perfectly after creating a leg down. This is a high-timeframe call and I am not certain of it, but it would not surprise me to get below 7237, the previous month’s low. Below that there is a daily and four-hour all the way down at 7312. If they come down and sweep the June low, we have a very nice untested daily at 7200 that I actually like — you could even wait to see if it reclaims 7234, which is a big wait and might mean getting long the next day. If they play that and get back above it, we should be able to come back to 7312 at a minimum for a 70-point pop.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 17.44 Midpoint Monthly Pivot

We are going to talk about levels we have discussed time and time again, and the big one is the 17.44 midpoint monthly pivot. Just remember: we are inherently bearish above this level, and the indices will see true relief below 17.44. We ended up pulling back from the 19.42, dipped into the valley, and shot right back above the 17.44, so it is not a perfect line — even though it has been played so many times, so perfectly, over and over again.

• The Support Stack Below: 17.19 (Weekly), 16.81 (Four-Hour), 16.64 (Daily). These are the lower levels underneath the 17.44 that could keep VIX propped up. If they bleed in here, look for these to play and send VIX back up. If they do not, and we stay below 17.44, we remain bullish on the indices, bringing us down to 16.20.

• The Relief Path: Underneath 16.20, we could come way down into the $15 handle again and see the 15.32 area — look for a potential reaction there underneath the sweep of this move up. That would be meaningful relief for the indices.

• The Bearish Ladder Above: As long as they stay above 17.44, we continue to remain bearish and push above the 18.41 weekly we have been watching, the 19.42 daily, and then the 20.78. Like I talked about last week, we have nothing left untested above us until we push all the way into the 24.70 through 25.70 big monthly/weekly resistance area.

• The Accumulation Read: It certainly looks like a good amount of accumulation down here — we keep popping up and holding these lows, just like we have discussed many times regarding that $14-$15 handle. As long as we remain above 17.44 on VIX, there is a strong possibility of making that happen.

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🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

The process is pointed down, so this week is about smacking the pops. We have very little resistance above us until we get to 7504.50 - 7507 — that is really my first short spot, and the 7507 daily is the only untested daily I have on the entire board. 7455 - 7458.50 is the immediate momentum-shift line: below it we have deep downside momentum, above it things change significantly, though we remain bearish. We do not get relief until above 7563. On the downside, the 7412 weekly is the monster — a sweep and reclaim there is the only long I really like, and beneath it we work toward the 7336 four-hour, which I like a lot on first touch.

The Core Short Trigger: If we get a squeeze up into the 7504.50 - 7507 area, get a smack, and then get back below 7485, I am going to get so freaking short. Profit targets: 7458.50, and ultimately back down into 7412 to see if we can go even lower. That is the trade I am waiting for.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Momentum Shift Line — P.W. VAL & Daily: 7455.00 - 7458.50

7458.50 (Tested Daily), 7455.00 (Previous Weekly Value Area Low).

• Context: This is the level I want you to focus on most — it is going to be very important. The 7455 Previous Weekly Value Area Low sits right on the 7458.50 daily, and that daily is very much tested now. Underneath this zone, we have deep momentum down. Above it, we are still bearish and can pop up and short, but things do change significantly — technically momentum shifts above here. Look at the sequence: head bump, head bump, head bump, head bump, then breakout, and of course they got smacked. If they do it again, we could potentially squeeze.

• Actionable Setup: Use 7455-7458.50 as your primary above/below gauge. Below it, the downside momentum is deep and shorts stay in control. Above it, remain bearish but be cautious, because momentum has technically shifted and a squeeze into the higher untested areas becomes possible.

• Warning: Just because I am bearish does not mean we cannot squeeze above this zone to smack higher untested targets. Do not fight a squeeze — trade it, then look for the smack.

The Thursday Short & Trapped Buyers: 7485.00 - 7489.75

7489.75 (Untested One-Hour — 2,400 Trapped Buyers), 7485.00 (Tested Daily — Thursday’s High).

• Context: Friday’s move down left some nice untested resistance on the one hour. You guys know I am not a fan of the one hour, but they trapped roughly 2,400 buyers at 7489.75 and another 1,800 to 2,000 just beneath — that is real fuel for an inverse reaction. The 7485 daily is the trade where we got literally every single point of the move, and it is now tested. We want to remain short below 7485.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If we pop up here and play 7489.75, then get back below Thursday’s high — which is basically the 7485 daily we shorted previously — get short. We will more than likely come down back to the 7458.50 area, or at least the congestion around 7470.

The First Real Short Spot — Big Confluence: 7504.50 - 7507.00

7507.00 (Daily — Only Untested Daily / The Short), 7504.50 (Untested Four-Hour / One-Hour), plus the 50-Day Moving Average and the Monthly Value Area Low.

• Context: This is my real reactionary area and my first short spot. We have very little resistance above us until we get here. The 7507 daily is the big level — and importantly, it is the only untested daily I have on the whole board, which makes it a short, not a buy. It pairs with the untested 7504.50 four-hour and one-hour, and this whole spot played multiple times from the bottom side, so it was absolutely a fantastic area. Stack the 50-day moving average and the monthly value area low in here and it is loaded.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: I would be looking to short the sh*t out of this spot if we get up in here. Especially if we get up here and then get back below 7485 on the continuation play — if they do that number, we get super short, because it is over with. Profit targets: 7458.50, then 7412.

• Warning: Do not short prematurely below this zone. If we get above 7485, wait for price to actually get into this section before engaging.

The Lean Zone: 7514.00 - 7518.00

7514.00 (Minor — Watch), 7518.00 (Upper Squeeze Extension).

• Context: This is the upper range of the immediate structure. I have 7514 marked as minor but worth watching, and it is there to lean on just in case they want to get jiggy and push through the 7504-7507 zone. Obviously as soon as we get into 7514, I get a little sketched out.

• Actionable Setup: If they push up into the 7514 - 7518 spot, wait for this area to react and get back below 7504 before you get all excited about the short. As long as they stay up in here and push back below 7504, we are good to go to come down.

The Momentum Shift Daily: 7524.00

7524.00 (Tested Daily).

• Context: Above 7514, we come through the 7524 daily. At this point it is still important, but it has been tested so much that I have decided to not make it significant anymore. Above this daily, we start to shift momentum again.

• Actionable Setup: Treat 7524 as a momentum marker rather than a primary trade location. Above it, expect the squeeze to extend into the bigger zones above.

The Previous Weekly POC & Monthly Confluence: 7544.00 - 7545.00

7545.00 (ETH Daily Leg Down), 7544.75 (Previous Weekly Point of Control), plus the Monthly VWAP and Monthly POC.

• Context: If we push up through 7524, guess what we come into — the Previous Weekly Point of Control at 7544.75, an ETH daily leg down at 7545, the monthly VWAP, and the monthly POC all in the same spot. This is a big spot. It also lines up with some of the highest untested levels we have.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: This is a legitimate short location on a squeeze. Just because we are above the lower zones and momentum has shifted, being below 7563 keeps the bearish structure intact — and this confluence is where the squeeze should meet real supply.

The Trapped-Buyer Reaction Zone: 7553.00 - 7561.00

7561.00 (Untested Four-Hour), 7559.00 (Daily), 7553.00 (Daily), plus a Naked Point of Control — 4,600 Trapped Buyers.

• Context: This is where it gets interesting. We have a naked point of control up here, two dailies at 7553 and 7559, and an untested four-hour at 7561 — and we have a huge amount of trapped traders. Look at it: they trapped 4,600 buyers for the high that day, which was insane. Those guys are going to get a big reaction when price comes back up there, because there will be an inverse reaction.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If the 7561 / 7553 areas play, we want to get back below 7545 before we get real excited about a short. Even though I am bearish below 7563, if we get all the way up here I want to make sure they are actually going to come down before I commit. Once confirmed, this is a high-quality fade with the trapped longs providing the fuel.

The Relief Line: 7563.00

7563.00 (The Bear/Bull Line).

• Context: This level continues to show its head again and again — last week it was 7560, and it keeps proving itself. I am basically bearish below 7563, and from this leg down I am inherently bearish. We do not get relief until above 7563.

• Actionable Setup: Above 7563, the bearish thesis is off and we hand it back to the bulls. Below it, everything on this board stays a short-the-pop exercise. And if they push above 7563, do not forget we have 7596 and 7599 above — the levels we were bearish below previously.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Monster Weekly Sweep: 7412.00

7412.00 (Very Tested Weekly — The Monster).

• Context: How big is this 7412? It is big as hell. This weekly was a monster — we played it from the bottom side multiple times and it sent us way up, and we played it with precision on Thursday. I truly think that if we come down here, we could sweep this level and squeeze back up. It would also sweep a local daily low, which is exactly the kind of liquidity grab that ignites a pop.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Watch for a potential sweep of this low. If we sweep 7412 and reclaim, that is a great opportunity to grab points back up to 7458.50 — roughly 40 points, which is awesome. This is the only long I really like on the entire board. Can we buy the sweep of 7412 and get the reclaim? Yeah, maybe — it might work and it might squeeze nice. But understand my process still says we are pointed down, so take your profits.

• Warning: If they do not get that sweep and instead pop below 7412 and accept, the downside opens up quickly toward the deeper zones.

The Tested Daily & Swing Low Sweep: 7357.00 - 7380.00

7380.00 (Very Tested Daily), 7357.00 (Big Swing Low — Generated End of June).

• Context: Below 7412 I have a daily down here at 7380 that is very much tested — do not expect a reaction from it. Below that, we would come down and sweep the big swing low at 7357, which was generated at the end of June.

• Actionable Setup: Treat 7380 as a progression marker only, not a buy. The 7357 swing low is the liquidity target that sets up the four-hour long just beneath it.

The Favorite Long — Four-Hour First Touch: 7336.00

7336.00 (Untested Four-Hour).

• Context: I like this four-hour a lot. We talked about this weeks ago when I thought it was going to come into play as we came down here. I do see this level playing on first touch — absolutely — and I will more than likely be buying here.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for 7336 to play and get back above 7357. I know what you are thinking — that is a 20-point reclaim, and yes, that is the issue with this trade. But I like the level, and I will be taking profits into 7357 and 7380.

The TPO Cleanup Target: 7313.75

7313.75 (Weekly TPO Cleanup Area).

• Context: I like this level down here on the weekly TPO and I think we can target this area — I truly do. I know it is pretty far from where we are, about 120 to 130 points, but I do foresee us coming down here to clean this up. I really do.

• Actionable Setup: This is the structural magnet for the week if the downside continues. Use it as a target for shorts riding down from the resistance ladder above.

The Last & Final Untested: 7284.00

7284.00 (Last & Final Untested Level).

• Context: Below the cleanup area, this is our last and final untested level. It is a decent spot for a reaction, but understand this: it is not going to save the market, guys.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: This is one of those trades where you take 7284 to 7336, you make 50 points, and you call it a day. 7284 to 7336 for sure — but do not build a thesis around it holding.

The Deep Sweep & 100-Day: 7213.00 - 7232.00

7232.00 (Massive Low — Sweep & Reclaim), 7213.00 (Four-Hour), plus the 100-Day Moving Average.

• Context: If we come down even farther, guess what is down here — the 100-day moving average. What a great spot. This would be a sweep of that massive low, and if I had to guess, this is the sweep and reclaim of 7232. We have nothing high-timeframe down here, but we do have another four-hour at 7213.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: We want to see it sweep this area, and then obviously start to take profits back up around 7284 and 7336. This is the deep-flush scenario — a real opportunity if it develops, but it means the downside has fully played out first.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

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🧠 Final Thoughts

Let me make this very clear so nobody misreads the week. We are pointed down on all timeframes — the daily, the four-hour, and the one-hour — with only the weekly holding in balance. Technically speaking, our process says this is not a long anywhere, and so we are only looking for shorts. Take the longs where you can get them, but know they will be muted, take your profits, and do not go hunting crazy runners. We are in Negative Gamma, which means rotations in both directions, expanded ranges, and inefficiencies getting filled — so every pop right now is smackable as long as you respect the lines we are above and below.

The playbook is defined. 7455 - 7458.50 is the immediate momentum-shift line — deep downside momentum beneath it. Above that, the pops become short opportunities: 7485-7489.75 with 2,400 trapped buyers, then my first real short spot at 7504.50 - 7507 where the only untested daily on the board sits, then the lean zone at 7514-7518, the 7524 momentum marker, the 7544-7545 POC and monthly confluence, and the 7553-7561 zone with 4,600 trapped buyers waiting to fuel an inverse reaction. We do not get relief until above 7563. The core trigger I am waiting on: squeeze into 7504-7507, get the smack, then get back below 7485 — that is when I get so freaking short, with targets at 7458.50 and 7412.

On the downside, the 7412 weekly is a monster and the sweep-and-reclaim there is the only long I truly like — roughly 40 points back to 7458.50. Below it, 7380 is tested with no reaction expected, 7357 is the swing-low sweep, and the 7336 four-hour is my favorite buy on first touch with a reclaim of 7357 to confirm. Deeper still, 7313.75 is the TPO cleanup target I do foresee us reaching, 7284 is the last and final untested for a 50-point trade, and the 7213-7232 area with the 100-day moving average is the deep-flush opportunity. On SPX, mirror it: bearish below 7515, real upside push above 7447, and watch the 7200 / 7234 sweep-reclaim for the 70-point pop into 7312. Keep VIX front and center — above the 17.44 midpoint monthly we stay inherently bearish on the indices, and below it we finally get true relief.

We absolutely murdered it last week. If you are a Substack subscriber and you are not in the Inner Circle, hit me up — I have a new way for you to get in. Come try it out for a month, see the magic we are doing in there, because we are changing people’s lives and there are people in that room putting up ridiculous numbers. And do not forget to grab the free SPX Morning Brief so you are prepared before the bell every single morning. I will see you in the room at 8:30. You guys have a good one and take care of yourself.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 Indicator String -TradingView/ Ninja

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7561.00|4HR|4H
7559.00|D|D
7553.00|D|D
7545.00|D|D
7524.00|Tested D|TD
7507.00|D|D
7504.50|4HR|4H
7489.75|1HR|1H
7485.00|Tested D|TD
7458.50|Tested D|TD
7455.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7412.00|Tested WK|TW
7380.00|Tested D|TD
7336.00|4HR|4H
7213.00|4HR|4H

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Friday, July 24th, and it is a glorious day to be alive and a glorious day to be a Vici S&P Edge Substack subscriber. We had an absolute showstopper yesterday, catching the high of the day short at 7485.00 and riding it down all morning to the absolute low at 7412.00 for precision entries and exits live in the Inner Circle. Team Vici cleaned up on this amazing move — a perfect example of how you only need one trade per day to keep the nine-to-five away. Congratulations to all those who grabbed the trade while we had it in hand; it was a glorious day in ES land.

As we come into the morning, price cascaded down over 90 points before yesterday’s open, letting us open beneath our main area at 7485.00 and below the swing low at 7468.00. By the bell we got an immediate squeeze right back into our major resistance at 7485.00 — a Daily and 4-Hour level — which played with surgical precision before coming all the way down to 7412.00, our massive Weekly pivot where everything goes wrong below. That move technically still kept us in balance: we’ve come out of the tight range we held all week, but we are not out of the woods yet. Overnight we’ve drifted sideways, holding the 7412.25 Weekly intact and potentially accumulating down here at the lows, and we’ve pushed back up to our July 7th swing low at 7468.50, which is currently acting as resistance. There are also inefficiencies higher up that will likely need to get cleaned up at some point.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No scheduled Red Tag news to speak of this morning.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at -15%. Factoring that in, we can expect to move roughly 36 points above or below the overnight high or low today — plenty of room to make some money on a Friday.

• Range: Expected range of 77.75 points. We have already moved 35.25 points overnight, leaving approximately 42 points in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment — closer to 36 points after it.

• Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma volatility once again. Dealers are hedging to the downside, which opens the door to expanded ranges, increased volatility, and money to be made in both directions.

• Trend: We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes and would need quite a move up to shift this downside lean. That said, the hold of the untested 7412.25 Weekly is significant, so we must expect a move in either direction today.

🧠 Current Market Context

The 7412 Untested Weekly Discovery

Yesterday’s 7412.25 Weekly played with precision, and there’s an important correction to make: I originally had this level marked as tested-but-significant, but after further research it was in fact untested — and that is a very large difference. An untested Weekly can provide a significant reaction, which is exactly what we’ve already seen, and it can potentially carry us higher today before we come back lower. This is why the level held with such accuracy and why we’ve balanced all night in the evening session. It matters enormously, because below 7412.25 we have no untested Weekly support — and no significant tested Weekly support either — until roughly 7000.00. In other words, below 7412.25 we could fall well over 400 points from a Weekly standpoint. This is the lower end of our balance range and the line the bulls must hold to keep price propped up. I could easily see this area holding today, and I would not be surprised to get a relief pop even though every timeframe is pointed down. I have one significant level I’m looking to buy to keep price propped up — after that, it’s all downside from there.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Ignore ES - Levels Compressed Due to Data Error / NQ is OK

Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, July 23rd, and we come off another banging day in the trade plan. We essentially nailed the low of the day with the sweep of yesterday’s low into 7504.00, which sparked a squeeze all morning that ran us all the way up to sweep yesterday’s high — only to get smacked right at the 7555.00 bearish pivot and hit for 30 points. Team Vici captured both directions and made plenty of cash. Congratulations to all those who took the long and the short early. Price then came back down, played our significant 4-Hour at 7529.00, propelled all the way back to new highs, and fell once again, leading us down this morning well over 45 points at the time of this writing. What a spectacular display of trade plan amazingness — a glorious day of money-making for all who stayed patient and followed the plan.

As we come into the morning, we are down 45 points and pointed lower. Yesterday was the true poke into the 7560.00 level — the ultimate Bull/Bear pivot I have been hammering on for some time — which marked the high and has since led us down well over 70 points for an amazing display of accuracy. We have continued to play two Dailies on the way down, both the 7534.00 and the 7524.00, and we now find ourselves back below our significant 7507.00 Daily, which is our current leg to the high. We also had a very interesting anomaly at yesterday’s close: VIX spiked over 14%, all the way up to 19.42 into the bell. Many people didn’t notice it, but I tweeted about it — things like this don’t happen by accident. This morning, VIX continues to grind higher as we hold above our 17.44 bearish midpoint pivot.

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🎁 Bonus: I’ll be giving away two prop firm examinations. Simply register for the webinar to be entered to win.

👉 Register here: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET — not a Red Tag event, but we will monitor it for volatility as it’s a significant economic indicator. On top of that, the US and China are back to talking tariffs, which is sure to create headlines and volatility. Watch for Trump tweets — there is never a lack of volatility-driving news in this market right now.

• Volume: No specific relative volume figure was called out this morning. Given the negative gamma regime and the tariff/geopolitical headlines, expect active participation and two-way rotation despite the clear downside lean.

• Range: No formal expected-range number today, but we are already down 45 points on ES in the overnight session and remain in Negative Gamma. Expect expanded ranges and volatility in both directions — be prepared for rotation and let the edges come to you.

• Gamma: We remain in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers continue to hedge the market to the short side, putting a lot of pressure on the Bulls as they prepare for more downside.

• Trend: Downside lean, and a strong one. We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes — only the Weekly holds us in balance. My bearish conviction thesis remains fully intact, and I have been pointing down since late last week. I remain inherently bearish below 7560.00, which was played to perfection yesterday.

🧠 Current Market Context

The 7560 Spill & The Break of 7507

We have been pointed down on all timeframes for well over a week and a half, and my major Bull/Bear pivot at 7560.00 was the line the entire time. Yesterday, price poked directly into 7560.00, marked the high, and spilled well over 70 points — exactly the scenario I have been insinuating through all of these squeezes that were doing nothing but shaking out the loose hands. This is a very troubling area for the Bulls. We have played two Dailies on the way down — the 7534.00 and the 7524.00 — and we have now broken back below our significant 7507.00 Daily, our current leg to the high. As of this writing we are pushing straight through the 7485.25 Daily and 7484.00 4-Hour as if they aren’t even there, because we have not gained on any timeframe. We have lost the 4-Hour, lost the Daily, and lost the 1-Hour.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, July 22nd, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan. Our Daily and 4-Hour level at 7504.50, alongside the Daily at 7507.00, held perfectly for yesterday’s low just as the plan provided — catapulting us above the momentum shift pivot that was the very title of yesterday’s plan at 7524.25 and sending us all the way up into our major resistance once again between 7555.00 and 7559.00, only to mark the high of the day into the close. Every single reaction we quoted could potentially happen, did. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the rough price action — the plan kept us pointed in the right direction and kept things clean and clear the entire session.

Since then, we have drifted right back down in the overnight session and sit down roughly 30 points at the time of this writing. Yesterday’s rally, as spectacular as it was, ultimately accomplished nothing but sweeping yesterday’s high and getting one poke higher into our massive resistance. We essentially retraced the entire move in the Globex session and now find ourselves back at — actually just below — yesterday’s open, sitting directly back above our 7507.00 Daily. That 7507.00 is the major Daily leg to our current high, and it is the level I talked about exclusively in the Inner Circle and in the post-market breakdown yesterday. If you missed that talk, please rewatch it, as it is extremely significant to your success.

📣 DON’T MISS IT — Monthly “How to Trade the Trade Plan” Webinar

This is a BIGGIE. Our once-a-month How to Trade the Trade Plan webinar is happening tomorrow, Thursday, July 23rd at 7:00 PM ET. I strongly encourage every trade plan subscriber to attend. This is where I give you step-by-step directions on how to more efficiently understand and manage the trade plan — everything you need to trade it properly so you too can conquer the markets. If you have never been, come. It will give you all the insight you need.

👉 Sign up here: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of this morning. We do have President Trump speaking again at 3:00 PM ET, toward the end of the day, but nothing early. Keep geopolitical headlines on your radar — they remain on the forefront and anything can happen.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at -12%, meaning participation is below average. Using our relative calculation, we can take roughly 10% off of our move — leaving us only about 33 points left in today’s move above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Range: Expected range of 74.5 points. We have already moved 35.5 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 40 points left in the tank before the volume adjustment — and closer to 33 points after it. Not a lot of room, which fits a balance day.

• Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma regime. This means expanded ranges and volatility regardless of the fact that we have no Red Tag news. Dealers are hedging, anything can happen, and we need to be prepared.

• Trend: Downside lean. We are still pointed down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. Only the Weekly holds us in massive balance. Yesterday’s pop gained us nothing structurally, and I remain inherently bearish below 7560.00.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Seven-Week Balance & The 7507 Leg

We find ourselves once again in the middle of a multi-week and multi-day balance. Looking at the TPO, we have had three days in balance — Friday, Monday, and Tuesday — poking the highs each day but ultimately ending back in balance, and the overnight session has dropped us directly into the middle of all three, extremely close to our current Weekly Point of Control. We have essentially gone nowhere for the past six or seven weeks. This is very difficult, choppy trading for intraday traders and all traders alike, as we simply cannot get any range extension in either direction. Yesterday’s pop was nothing but a pure squeeze that shook the loose hands out after holding yesterday’s low and building a significant W, only to leave us right back in our main location.

Read more

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

📬 Before you read: Please check your spam folder and whitelist rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com so you never miss a morning plan.

🎥 THIS IS A BIGGIE — Our Monthly “How to Trade the Trade Plan” Webinar! I strongly encourage every trade plan subscriber to attend. I walk you through step-by-step directions on how to more efficiently understand and manage the trade plan, so you too can conquer these markets. Reserve your spot here: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

Good morning, everyone. Today is Tuesday, July 21st, and we come off another ridiculous day in the trade plan. We called bearish action in the Weekend Review, citing the exact areas we would be looking at for reaction, and yesterday proved to be absolute trade plan amazingness. Price started by popping up in the morning session, making it all the way into our 7550s area on ES, only to get smacked and come down all day long, ultimately closing below Friday’s open around 7483.00 — a monster smack for well over 70 points that rewarded trade plan subscribers handsomely.

We also had beautiful confluence yesterday with SPX popping into my bearish zone at 7500.00 - 7506.00, getting hit right there at the open and coming down an equal amount of points. Perfect confluence between ES and SPX, with VIX being our guiding light — coming down to play the 17.44 to the tick before getting a major boost above 18.41, exactly as the trade plan described. Congratulations to all those who took advantage, and to our team members in the inner circle who were lighting up the scoreboard.

Last night in the overnight session, price continued to drift lower and came all the way down to touch — perfectly, to the exact same tick — Friday’s low at 7473.00, essentially creating a double bottom, a “W” on our chart. That lifted the indices back up all night long, leaving us right now directly underneath our significant momentum shift level at 7524.25. This is going to be a big level for us today.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of and nothing scheduled on the docket. That does not mean we are clear — we have more Iran headlines, as they are announcing they are unlikely to ease their negotiation stance despite military action. We need to be prepared for any type of volatility, as we know Trump tweets and war tweets tend to cause completely unexpected market volatility.

• Volume: Relative Volume is negative at -22% this morning, which can stifle our expected range and gives us a very muted possibility. This mutes our total potential range down to roughly 59 points for the day.

• Range: Expected range of 76 points. We have already moved 57.25 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 18.75 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. With the negative relative volume muting our total to around 59 points, we have very little left in the tank before we would be stretching the day’s expectations.

• Gamma: We are in a Negative Gamma regime — dealers are hedging to the downside, which also opens the door for volatility expansion and increased range sizes. This guarantees moves in both directions, so look for money to be made both ways.

• Trend: Downside lean. We are down on all timeframes — the Daily, the 4-Hour, and the 1-Hour. Our process is truly still pointing us to the downside, and we are only looking for shorts as they present themselves. Rotation both ways is still very possible in this negative gamma environment.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Seven-Week Balance & The Zero-Edge POC

We are still very much within a seven-week balance, and determining a clean direction is difficult as price continues to just drift sideways while the market digests the war news, potential earnings, and other volatility-based information. The interesting thing I noticed this morning is the hold of the lows to the exact same tick, which caused our pop up in the overnight session — and that gives us a little bit of uncertainty about which direction this market could actually go today. We held Friday’s lows and stayed inside Friday and Monday’s range overnight, so which way we break is anybody’s guess.

Read more

And guys, once again, I am so excited to talk about what happened last week. We had a record-breaking week from the Inner Circle — we put up more numbers in one day than we ever have in the existence of the Inner Circle. This was Tuesday: the usual suspects on the board, plus more, and we did over $100,000 on Tuesday as a community — and I was the low guy on the totem pole. I could not be more proud of what this is doing for individuals and the way the team is carrying their own. People in our room are taking this seriously, focusing, being patient, and making it count — and the P&L is absolutely showing it. Let’s get into VIX, SPX, and of course ES, the symbol of the day.

🎓 WEBINAR — How to Trade the Trade Plan | This Thursday This one is crucial for anyone following the trade plans. On Thursday I am running our big How to Trade the Trade Plan webinar, where I go over every single step of the trade plan line by line — the important areas you need to look at, how to ingest all of that information in about five to seven minutes, exactly how to structure your trade, what the actionable setups mean, and ultimately how to prepare for your day and trade the plan more efficiently. This has helped so many traders and answers a ton of questions. And as usual, I am giving away free prop firm evals — so even if you cannot make it live, sign up anyway and you will be in the roster for the winnings. Register here → https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: No specific Red Tag events flagged heading into the week. It looks like they are trying to do a little something-something at the Sunday open — we closed Friday at 7480 and are currently sitting at 7496 in Globex — so monitor the open carefully.

• Structure: We had a massive close on Friday and we actually lost the daily support again. I was looking for shorts Thursday because we lost the four-hour; on Friday we lost the daily at 7507. We are now officially pointed down on all timeframes except the weekly, which is in balance.

• Range: We are in a six-week balance on the weekly timeframe — last week stayed completely inside the previous week’s range, not even sweeping a high or low, which is pretty insane. Friday’s move looks big, but in the grand scheme of things we have not gone anywhere. There is a little gap above that takes us up to 7548, and a big weekly excess below that still needs to get cleaned up down to 7412.

• Inefficiencies: We have very significant untested levels below us and very significant untested levels above us — and usually when that happens, these inefficiencies like to get cleaned up. That is the overall gist of the week.

• Trend: Down. My process is pointing us down, and I have been guesstimating we come down for a couple of weeks now — every time we do, we pop back up and stay in balance. We have one more opportunity to do that again this week. I remain bearish below the previous weekly value area low at 7560, and I do feel like we are gunning for new lows on this leg — I could not believe they rallied Friday without getting them.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Six-Week Balance & The Lost Daily Timeframe

Here is the honest picture: we are in a six-week balance, and last week we literally sat inside the prior week’s range going back and forth all week without gaining or losing anything in percentage terms. So while Friday’s action felt like an incredible move — and it was, do not get me wrong — ultimately we have not gone anywhere. What did change is the process: on Thursday we lost the four-hour timeframe, and on Friday we closed below the 7507 daily, officially losing the daily timeframe. We are now pointed down on everything except the weekly, which is in balance. I am obviously looking to the downside, and I do feel like we are gunning for new lows on this leg. They did come down late Friday and clean up Friday’s big massive buying tail — exactly like I was insinuating in the Free Alpha Friday — but a day late and a dollar short on the new lows themselves.

The weekly TPO frames the battlefield. We were cruising higher with progressing value areas until they started to overlap, and now all signs point to potential problems. The two big TPO landmarks: I am bearish below the Previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7560 — get back above it and we could get sucked back into the value area and make our way toward the point of control — and we have two previous weekly Points of Control overlapping at 7589.75, which is a very key area to put on your chart. Below us, that big weekly excess tail from the spike candle still needs its cleanup down to 7412. And the one area I truly think could prop this entire market up, at least for this week, is the 7463.50 daily — a massive untested daily that lines up with the absolutely tested 7458.50 right beside it, giving us a beautiful sweep opportunity. For those trading with me Friday, that sweep was the actual low I was hunting — short most of the day looking for it, ready to flip long.

On SPX, the story mimics ES perfectly. We got very close to playing the 7500 — our short on Friday — as they popped, played the tested weekly perfectly, hit 7500, and pulled back. I remain bearish underneath 7500, really below 7506 — an untested four-hour that has played multiple times and a level I like. The 7515 untested daily above played for the pop to the highs, but it is not my favorite; even if it plays, I will more than likely not engage unless we get back below 7506 and 7500 for continuation lower. Above 7515, the bulls start to get a little juice back, taking us into the 7537 untested leg where I would look for a reaction; above 7537 we come to the tested 7554, then back to the monthly and all-time highs. Momentum shifts slightly back to the upside above 7483, but not perfectly. On the downside, underneath 7420 things go severely bad — that is our bearish pivot. The 7404.91 four-hour is tested but important; look for a potential slide into it. Then the one that matters: 7312, the last untested four-hour. Look for a reaction there — if you are short, it is a great place to take profits, and it could produce a nice 30-to-50-point pop. Under 7312, there is nothing untested until the 7234 leg low, and under that we hit the last daily and four-hour at 7200 and 7207 — if that area plays and we get back above 7234, we boogie back higher and start all over again.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 17.44 Midpoint Pressure

VIX is the pressure gauge this week, and the message is bearish for the indices: we are back above the 17.44 monthly, and just being above it is inherently bearish, keeping a downside lean on the indices — no question about it. We came up and hit the big 19.42 daily once again — this thing never fails to disappoint, smacked over and over — and pulled back into the 15.57 daily before popping again. Now the 17.44 / 17.19 midpoint pivot is where it all comes to play.

• The Midpoint — Massive Support: 17.44 - 17.19. We have a nice little W pattern going on here, and this is the huge determining factor: either the indices continue down and keep VIX propped up, or we break below 17.19, test the lower monthly, and come back into the 15.32 weekly — which is where it all goes down for VIX and where the indices get serious relief. Remember: anything that is formerly resistance turns into support once gained. They played this area from the bottom side absolutely perfectly on Thursday, and there is a very untested gap in here. My thought is we get a pop on a test of this zone and at least get back to 18.41.

• The Momentum Monitor: 18.41 (Weekly — Very Tested). Above 17.44, this is the next stop. It is very tested, so we use it to monitor momentum above and below rather than expecting a hard rejection.

• The Prime Smack: 19.70 (Daily) directly above 19.42. This one is still prime for the smacking — if we come up here and play it and get back below 19.42, VIX could come down.

• The Big Reversal Zone: 24.70 (Big Monthly) and 25.78 (Big Daily). Above 19.42 we have 20.78 and the perfectly-played-but-tested 23.43 — nothing untested for quite some time — until we reach this massive resistance band. If VIX pops all the way up here, it will more than likely get a smack, and that would be a great place to look for a potential reversal in the indices to get long — because a push up here means the indices have come down a couple hundred points by then.

• The Relief Path: Below 17.19 and ultimately the 16.19 daily, we get serious relief on the indices, taking us back much higher. Watch the midpoint — it decides everything.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

The process points down, and this week is about shorting the untested resistance overhead and hunting the sweep below. The featured trade is the 7529.25 untested four-hour: play it, get back below the 7524 daily to engage the short, take profits at 7507, and look for the full extension into 7463.50. The bull/bear line for the whole structure is the 7600 area — the 7596.50 untested daily (which I would short the sh*t out of), the 7599.25 weekly, and the 7589.75 overlapping POCs. Below, everything goes sideways under 7458.50, with the 7463.50 sweep as the save-it trade and the 7404.50 / 7412 weekly-excess cleanup as the deeper catapult play.

The Featured Setup — The 7529.25 Sexy Short: This is the same trade on both SPX and ES, and it is a beautiful, actionable setup. We have the 7529.25 four-hour — very much untested, very sexy — sitting right on top of the 7524 daily. The play: see 7529.25 play, get back below 7524 to engage the short, take profits at 7507, and then look for even lower into the 7463 area if possible. This is a giant trade — if it plays and gets back underneath, we literally could come all the way under Friday’s low. As long as it plays and pays, we will be very happy campers.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Gray Marker — Leg to the High: 7507.00

7507.00 (Tested Daily — Leg to the High).

• Context: This was the daily that decided Friday — I said if we close below it, we have officially lost the daily timeframe, and we did. Technically speaking, I think it is tested; it did not gain, and I am just not in love with it, so I keep it in gray — not to be ignored, but not a primary level.

• Actionable Setup: Use 7507 for above/below context and as a profit-taking marker on shorts from above. It is our leg to the high, so respect the reaction potential without over-trusting it.

The Sexy Short — Untested 4-Hour & The Daily: 7524.00 - 7529.25

7529.25 (Four-Hour — Very Much Untested), 7524.00 (Tested Daily — Momentum Shift).

• Context: The 7524 is the big level we have talked about multiple times — the support that held a couple of weeks ago and launched us to the all-time high, with rejection weeks visible bottom-up and top-down all over the left of the chart. It is going to be really important for a momentum shift up or down. And directly on top of it sits the 7529.25 untested four-hour — a very sexy level and my featured trade of the week.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Look for 7529.25 to play and get back below 7524 to engage. Take profits at 7507, then look for the extension lower into 7463 if momentum allows. If price gets underneath 7524 and keeps going, this trade could run all the way under Friday’s low.

• Warning: If price accepts above 7529.25 instead, we head into the weekly gap fill above — do not fight the acceptance.

The Gap Fill & 4-Hour: 7544.50 - 7548.00

7548.00 (Weekly Gap Fill Target), 7544.50 (Four-Hour — Untested).

• Context: Above 7524-7529, we come into the little weekly gap from the TPO that runs up to 7548 — and there just happens to be an untested four-hour at 7544.50 sitting right in it. I like this spot; it played great for us a couple of times.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Want to see 7544.50 play and get back below 7539, then take profits at 7529. If it gets underneath 7524, it just keeps going.

The Untested Leg & The Bearish TPO Line: 7558.50 - 7560.00

7560.00 (Previous Weekly Value Area Low — Bearish Below), 7559.50 (Untested — Leg to the High), 7558.50 (Untested — Leg to the High).

• Context: This is the big spot for me — I feel like we really shift hard above this location. The 7559.50 / 7558.50 massive untested area is the leg that took us to the high, and it sits directly below the 7560 Previous Weekly Value Area Low, which is my bearish line from the TPO. Above 7560, we could get sucked back into the value area and toward the overlapping POCs.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Want to see the 7559.50 / 7558.50 area play and get back below 7555 for continuation lower — then it goes boom, boom, boom: take profits at 7544, 7529, and 7524-7525 on the way down.

• Warning: Above 7559 I start to get a little worried that momentum might shift. Keep a close eye on this zone — it is one of my two big momentum-shift spots.

The Tested-Question-Mark Daily: 7573.00

7573.00 (Daily — Tested, Watch).

• Context: We know 7573 has been playing, and playing good — this is the big spot we could not get over for weeks, and then finally cleared. My only concern is it looks slightly tested right here, so I have it marked as tested, question mark, watch, because I am not really sure.

• Actionable Setup: If it starts to play, you can get in for a small risk with a tight stop. Above 7559 and then 7573, we could come all the way up into 7596.50 again.

The Bull/Bear Line: 7589.75 - 7600.00

7599.25 (Weekly — Untested?), 7596.50 (Daily — Very Much Untested), 7589.75 (Two Overlapping Previous Weekly POCs).

• Context: This is where I am truly bullish above or bearish beneath — ultimately our 7600 level that we flirted with many times last week. The 7596.50 daily is very much untested, and I would short the sh*t out of this thing. The 7599.25 weekly is quasi-questionable on tested status — I marked it untested — but regardless, this weekly is so important; it is just big as hell. And the two overlapping previous weekly POCs at 7589.75 make this a very key area. Put all of it on your chart.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: The plan is to play the 7596.50 daily short and lean on the 7599.25 weekly for help keeping us down. This is the big bull/bear line — below 7600 I am bearish; above it, the bulls take it.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Fantastic Sweep — Prop-Up Zone: 7450.00 - 7463.50

7463.50 (Daily — Very Much Untested / The Sweep), 7458.50 (Tested Daily — Everything Sideways Below), 7450.00 (Tested Daily — Backside Plays).

• Context: This is the one area I truly think could prop this entire market up, at least for this week. The 7463.50 daily is massive, very much untested, and has played from the bottom side over and over. It lines up with the absolutely tested 7458.50 — the red level below which everything goes sideways — and the 7450 daily that we played from the backside multiple times. It is still untested and provides a fantastic sweep; I do think this area is primed for the pickings. This was the actual low I was hunting on Friday, short most of the day looking for this sweep, ready to flip long.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: The save-it trade: come down, play 7463.50, sweep and reclaim 7468, and squeeze back up into something much higher and untested to restart the balance rotation. This is the long I want if we flush.

• Warning: Below 7458.50, everything goes sideways. If the sweep fails and we accept beneath the red level, we head straight into the weekly-excess cleanup below.

The Weekly Excess Cleanup & Catapult: 7404.50 - 7412.00

7412.00 (Weekly — Very Much Tested / Bad Below), 7404.50 (The Play Level).

• Context: Underneath 7458.50, we come down and start cleaning up that weekly excess from the TPO — the tail created by that spike candle. The 7412 was a giant level not too long ago, the big weekly, and there is a nice wick here too. But note what my chart says at this weekly: bad below — it all goes south even more underneath it.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: What we really want to see: clean up the excess, push through the weekly, play 7404.50, and get back above the weekly at 7412 — that should catapult us right back up to 7458 / 7463. That is where I would take some serious TP if not my final TP — call it a 60-point win and be happy with it.

• Warning: Underneath that, ladies and gentlemen, we literally have nothing for quite some time — a tested daily, and then we could come down all the way below 7350 ultimately. Do not overstay the bounce.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

Super clear, super defined. We lost the four-hour on Thursday and the daily at 7507 on Friday — we are officially pointed down on all timeframes except the weekly, which is stuck in a six-week balance where we have genuinely gone nowhere. My process points down, I remain bearish below the 7560 Previous Weekly VAL and the 7600 bull/bear line, and I believe we are gunning for new lows on this leg. But remember: every time we have come down, we have popped back up and stayed in balance, and we have one more opportunity to do that this week — with significant untested levels sitting both above and below us, these inefficiencies like to get cleaned up.

The playbook: the featured trade is the 7529.25 sexy short — play it, back below 7524, profits at 7507, extension to 7463. Above that, the 7544.50 gap-fill four-hour, the 7558.50-7560 untested leg at the bearish TPO line, and ultimately the 7596.50 daily short with the 7599.25 weekly backing it up. Below, the 7463.50 fantastic sweep is the prop-up trade — sweep, reclaim 7468, squeeze — and if we lose 7458.50, the weekly-excess cleanup targets 7404.50 with the reclaim of 7412 catapulting us back for a 60-point win. Keep VIX front and center: above the 17.44 monthly, the pressure stays on the indices, and the 17.44-17.19 midpoint W is the determining factor for the entire week. One step at a time — the levels are defined, the setups are actionable, and we know exactly where it all goes bad.

To everyone in the Inner Circle — I am so proud of each and every one of you. And to those who have written me saying the trade plans are incredible: listen, it is not me, it is the process. If you want to learn more about it, shoot me a DM — I got you. Sign up for the How to Trade the Trade Plan webinar on Thursday, grab your shot at the free prop firm evals, and I look forward to absolutely murdering this week and conquering the markets with each and every one of you.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 TradingView Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7599.25|WK|W
7596.50|D|D
7573.00|Tested D|TD
7560.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7544.50|4HR|4H
7529.25|4HR|4H
7524.00|Tested D|TD
7507.00|Tested D|TD
7463.50|D|D
7458.50|Tested D|TD
7450.00|Tested D|TD
7412.00|Tested WK|TW

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