OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, May 5th, and we come off an unreal day in the trade plan yesterday. We spotted the short in Sunday’s weekend review, got the pullback we anticipated from the 7264.50 resistance area, and came all the way down into the 7213.75 4-Hour, which played perfectly to the tick before launching nearly 60 points for an amazing drop and pop.

That was all premarket. Then during the cash session, once price faded from the 7270.00 area, we came down and played the 7204.75 Daily, reclaimed the overnight lows, and squeezed back once again through the cash session and overnight into the 7260.00 area, paying another additional 50 points. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of this. We absolutely dominated yesterday. Lots of subscribers put money on the board, passed prop firm evaluations, and made serious money from a plan that laid out the structure almost perfectly.

Now, as we come into today, we are less than 40 points from making a new all-time high. ES is up roughly 31 - 36 points at the time of this writing, and we are butting our head against the major resistance area above us. This is a very interesting predicament because the process still points higher, but options dealers have moved the gamma flip all the way up to 7300.00, which means dealers are hedging to the downside. That gives us the potential for volatility in both directions, and if buyers press through the upper resistance, we could see a very hard squeeze.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: Red Tag news hits at 10:00 AM Eastern, after the open. Be aware that the open can be active, then the market may pause or shake around that event.

• Volume: Relative Volume is negative 18% this morning. That reduces the normal range expectation, but the 7300.00 gamma flip overhead can still create volatility if price starts pressing higher.

• Range: Expected range is 70.50 points. We have already moved approximately 38 points, leaving roughly 32 points left in the tank. After adjusting for Relative Volume, I am looking for approximately 25 points of possible extension above or below the overnight high or low.

• Gamma: The gamma flip has moved all the way up to 7300.00, which means dealers are hedging to the downside today. That gives us the possibility of a two-way move, but if ES continues to push higher into 7300.00, we can squeeze extremely hard.

• Trend: Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and even 1-Hour structure remain pointed higher. We have not lost support on any timeframe, so the process still says look higher until proven otherwise. The caveat is the 7300.00 gamma flip and prior all-time high zone overhead.

🧠 Current Market Context

The All-Time High Attempt With Dealers Hedging Downside

ES is in a very interesting spot. Structurally, we have no reason to assume this market has to come down yet. We are up on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes, and the 7204.75 Daily did exactly what it needed to do. Just like SPX holding 7173.91, the ES 7204.75 Daily was the level that, if held, could send us back toward all-time highs. That is exactly what has happened so far.

The big caveat is the 7300.00 gamma flip. For the last stretch, the gamma flip had been acting more like support beneath us. Today, it has shifted back above price and is sitting right near the prior all-time high at 7300.75, with a Call Wall at 7298.00. That is not information I want to take lightly. It tells us options dealers are hedging to the downside. However, our process still supersedes that data. If price continues to press higher through 7264.50 and 7270.25, we need to respect the upside attempt and understand that the very hedging pressure sitting above us can fuel a significant squeeze.

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Ryan Bailey

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The stock closed Friday at $133.58. That’s down roughly 60% from the 52-week high of $335.19 set in June 2025, and over 74% off the all-time high of $516.39 from December 2023. Wall Street has been dumping it. FinTwit has written its obituary. Most of what’s being said about why this stock is broken is flat-out wrong.

Here’s the deal: Lululemon is not collapsing because of a debt bomb, a failed acquisition, or some structural rot in the business model. It’s being repriced from “elite premium compounder” to “brand and execution turnaround.” That’s a very different conversation. And if price does what I’m watching for at the COVID lows, this could be the cleanest multi-generational long setup in retail I’ve seen in a long time.

Let me break it all down — what’s actually wrong, what isn’t, and the exact trade I’m stalking

What FinTwit Is Wrong About

Before we get to the real problems, let’s clear out the noise. There are four narratives floating around that simply don’t hold up to the filings.

Narrative 1: “They’re drowning in debt.” False. LULU ended fiscal 2025 with $1.807 billion in cash and another $593.6 million available on its revolving credit facility. There are no traditional borrowings outstanding beyond $6.4 million in letters of credit. Total funded debt is effectively zero. The “debt” you see on screening sites is operating lease liabilities — $298.7M current and $1.50B non-current — which is just the future rent on its store base. That’s a real cost, but it’s not leverage in the financial-distress sense.

Narrative 2: “They’ve blown shareholder capital on bad acquisitions.” Mostly false. The Mirror disaster was real — LULU paid roughly $500 million for the at-home fitness company in 2020 and eventually wrote almost all of it off, taking another $98.2 million in pre-tax charges in 2023 to wind it down. That was a black eye on capital allocation. But it’s already in the rearview, and the only meaningful acquisition since was a $176.1 million tuck-in to bring its Mexico operations in-house in 2024 — too small to move the needle.

Narrative 3: “Brick-and-mortar is killing them.” Half-true, but not the way most people think. LULU still operates 811 company-owned stores and brick-and-mortar revenue actually grew slightly in fiscal 2025, from $5.01B to $5.05B. The problem isn’t the channel — it’s productivity. Sales per square foot fell from $1,574 in 2024 to $1,426 in 2025 — a 9.4% decline in a single year. That’s the brand-equity tell. Stores aren’t bleeding money, but the box is producing less per square foot than it used to, and that’s where the operating leverage starts to bite.

Narrative 4: “The CEO is arrogantly raising prices, Apple-style, to prove the brand is superior.” This one I want to address directly because I’ve heard it from multiple readers, and it’s nonsense. There is no credible source supporting it. What management has actually said is the opposite — they’re taking modest, selective price increases on a small portion of the assortment, item-by-item, specifically as tariff pass-through, not brand-proofing. The strategy in 2026 is to reduce markdowns and return to full-price selling — not to raise the sticker price across the board to make a statement. Also worth noting: Calvin McDonald, the CEO that comment was attributed to, stepped down in January 2026. He’s gone. Heidi O’Neill, formerly of Nike, was named the new CEO but doesn’t even start until September 8, 2026. In the meantime, Meghan Frank (CFO) and André Maestrini are running the company as interim co-CEOs.

So if you’ve been told this stock is broken because of debt, M&A disasters, store closures, or arrogant pricing — you’ve been told the wrong story.

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What’s Actually Killing the Stock

The real story is simpler and more dangerous: the U.S. consumer has cooled on Lululemon at the same time tariffs are eating margins. That’s it. That’s the whole bear case.

Start with the Americas. The region accounted for roughly 71% of fiscal 2025 revenue, and it just went negative. Americas revenue declined 1% on the year. Comparable sales fell 3%. Q4 was worse — Americas revenue down 4% and comps down 1%. U.S. revenue specifically slipped from $6.48 billion in 2024 to $6.33 billion in 2025. Management is now guiding Americas comp declines of 1% to 3% in 2026. That’s the company telling you, in writing, that its biggest market is going to shrink again this year.

Now layer on tariffs. Lululemon sources heavily from Vietnam and China, and the 2025 tariff regime — combined with the removal of the de-minimis exemption that previously allowed under-$800 e-commerce shipments duty-free — hammered the cost structure. The company says the tariff and de-minimis hit reduced 2025 gross profit by approximately $275 million. For 2026, the gross tariff impact is projected to climb to $380 million, with management targeting roughly $160 million in mitigation. Net hit: around $220 million.

You can see the damage in the margin line. Q4 2025 gross margin collapsed 550 basis points to 54.9%, with about 520 bps of that coming directly from tariffs. Full-year gross margin was down 260 bps to 56.6%. Operating margin fell 380 bps to 19.9%. Diluted Q4 EPS dropped from $6.14 to $5.01.

Then there’s the inventory problem. Year-end inventory hit $1.7 billion, up 18% year-over-year, while units were only up 6% and revenue grew 5%. When dollar inventory growth materially outpaces sales growth, you’re either eating tariff-inflated cost-per-unit or staring at future markdowns. Probably both.

And finally, competition. Alo Yoga and Vuori have been quietly eating Lululemon’s lunch — particularly with younger and affluent customers. Vuori operates 93 U.S. stores with an average ticket of about $185 versus LULU’s $145. Alo runs 99 U.S. stores and saw peak periods in 2024 with up to 88% year-over-year sales growth. Both have deliberately been opening locations within half a mile of Lululemon stores. Among ultra-wealthy households, Vuori has captured 15.6% market share in some categories — that’s exactly LULU’s old core demographic. Lululemon’s own 10-K admits its fabrics and manufacturing technology generally aren’t patented and can be imitated by competitors at lower price points. That’s the dupe risk in plain English.

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The Bull Case: A Brand Multiple Reset, Not a Broken Business

Here’s why I find this setup so interesting: none of the above is permanent damage. This is a company that still generated $11.1 billion of revenue, $1.58 billion of net income, and approximately $922 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2025. The balance sheet is a fortress. There’s no funded debt, $1.8 billion in cash, and a clean revolver.

International is genuinely working. China Mainland revenue grew 28.9% in fiscal 2025 with a 40% segment operating margin. Rest of World grew 15.6% with 23% segment margins. The company is entering six new international markets in 2026 — its largest single-year expansion ever, including Greece, Austria, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and India.

Valuation is at a decade-low. At $133.58, LULU trades at roughly 10x trailing earnings and about 11x the midpoint of FY2026 EPS guidance ($12.10–$12.30). For most of the last ten years, this stock traded between 25x and 40x earnings. Even if you assume earnings stay flat from here, the multiple compression alone is historic.

Management is buying. The company repurchased $1.178 billion of stock in fiscal 2025 and has roughly $1.6 billion still authorized after the board approved a $1 billion increase last December. Insiders have been buying alongside the buyback — Director Chip Bergh’s trust purchased nearly $1 million of shares in March, and interim co-CEO André Maestrini added almost $500K at $151. That’s not noise. That’s conviction near 52-week lows.

And finally, the Heidi O’Neill catalyst. Whether the market liked the pick or not, a new CEO with a clear mandate to restore product heat is, on its face, a positive optionality event. If she lands the strategic reset and the Americas business stabilizes, this stock doesn’t need a heroic re-rating to move sharply higher.

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The Bear Case: Cheap Can Get Cheaper

Now the honest counterpoint, because anyone selling this as a no-brainer is doing you a disservice.

The most dangerous version of the bear case is this: the Americas weakness is not cyclical. It’s structural. Customers may have moved on. If Alo, Vuori, Nike’s Skims partnership, and the wave of Amazon and Costco dupes have permanently captured the price-conscious half of LULU’s old customer base, then no amount of “product newness” fixes it. Selective price increases backfire spectacularly when brand heat is gone.

If that’s the world we’re in, fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $12.10–$12.30 isn’t a trough — it’s a way station on the path to $8–$10. At those numbers, today’s stock isn’t washed out at all. A 12x multiple on $9 in earnings puts you at $108. Not coincidentally close to my invalidation level, which we’ll get to.

Tariffs may also be more structural than transitional. The company itself flagged in its 10-K that tariff and de-minimis changes are expected to keep pressuring product costs, gross profit, and operating income. Even if some duties get rolled back via the courts (LULU has filed for refunds), the supply-chain repositioning to non-Asia geographies takes years.

Two more things worth flagging. First, buybacks exceeded free cash flow in fiscal 2025: $1.178 billion repurchased against approximately $922 million in FCF. That’s not a crisis when you have $1.8B in cash, but it does mean the buyback engine that’s been supporting EPS is running ahead of organic cash generation. Second, fiscal 2026 capex guidance is $725 million to $745 million, above 2025 levels. So even if earnings stabilize, FCF could stay pressured.

There’s also a securities class action covering the December 2023 to July 2024 period alleging false and misleading statements related to inventory and product offerings, plus related derivative actions. Not the main reason for the stock’s decline, but it adds to the governance cloud.

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The Technical Setup: Why $121.61 Is the Line

This is where the chart starts telling a story the fundamentals can’t.

The COVID swing low sits at $128.85. That level was forged in the panic of March 2020 — one of the most brutal liquidity events in modern market history. When the entire S&P 500 reset, LULU bottomed there, and that low has held for over six years.

Below it, at $121.61, sits the last untested monthly level going all the way back to 2019, before the COVID era even began. That’s a level the market has not revisited in roughly seven years. When price approaches a structural reference point that old and that clean, you’re no longer trading earnings revisions. You’re trading market memory.

A move into $121.61 would do two things at once. It would sweep the COVID swing low — taking out resting liquidity below $128.85 and trapping every short and stop-loss seller stacked under that level — and it would tag the pre-COVID monthly. That’s the kind of liquidity event that often produces a multi-generational reversal, because every long-term holder, every value buyer, and every algorithmic accumulator has the same level marked.

If price gets there, holds, reacts, and then reclaims the COVID low on a daily close basis, that’s the signal.

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My Trade Plan

This is the part that matters. We are not catching a falling knife.

Step 1: Wait for the sweep. I want to see price decline into $121.61 — taking out the COVID low at $128.85 along the way. That sweep is the trap, not the trade.

Step 2: Demand a reaction. Price needs to hold $121.61 and show real buying response. A wick-and-bounce is a start. A stabilization day is better. What I don’t want is a clean break-and-go through this level.

Step 3: Wait for the reclaim. This is the confirmation. I want a daily close back above the COVID low at $128.85 — once at minimum, ideally twice — to confirm that the sweep was rejected and the COVID low has been officially reclaimed. That close-above is what turns this from a falling knife into a structural long.

Step 4: Initiate the long. Once the reclaim is confirmed on the daily, I’m taking a major position.

Near-term targets:

• T1: $155.49 — first major upside reference

• T2: $189.00 — extended target into the broader 2025 range

Higher time frame swing targets:

• T3: $292.50

• T4: $316.00

These last two are not next-week or next-month targets. These are swing objectives that may take a year or longer to play out. But here’s the logic: if price plays this level cleanly and progresses through T1 and T2, the structural case for a return to the broader 2024–2025 range opens up. A reclaim of a multi-generational low isn’t a small event. When these levels resolve correctly, they tend to produce moves that eclipse what most traders are willing to hold for. If the brand reset under Heidi O’Neill takes hold, international keeps compounding, and the Americas business stabilizes — even modestly — these are reasonable destinations on a 12-to-18-month horizon.

I’m not married to those numbers. I’m scaling out at T1 and T2 like any disciplined trader. But if the setup confirms and the fundamentals start to follow, I’ll be holding a runner all the way up.

Invalidation: $109.50. If price closes below this level on the daily, the entire setup is dead. Move on.

The math here is favorable. From a confirmation entry around $130, T1 at $155.49 is roughly +20%, T2 at $189 is +45%, T3 at $292.50 is +125%, and T4 at $316 is +143%. Invalidation at $109.50 is roughly -16%. That’s a clean asymmetric setup with real long-tail upside if the turnaround takes hold.

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Bottom Line

Lululemon is not a debt-driven collapse. It’s a premium brand multiple reset against the backdrop of weakening Americas demand and an ugly tariff cycle. The bull case is that the brand still has real pricing power, international is compounding, the balance sheet is bulletproof, and the stock is the cheapest it’s been on earnings in over a decade. The bear case is that the Americas customer has structurally moved on, and “cheap” earnings get cheaper if EPS keeps sliding.

This is exactly the kind of setup where structure beats opinion. I don’t need to predict whether the bull or bear case wins on a five-year horizon. I need to react to what price does at the most important level on the chart.

If LULU sweeps $121.61, holds, and reclaims the COVID low at $128.85 with a daily close — I’m a buyer, with conviction, targeting $155.49 and then $189. If it breaks $109.50 and stays there, I’m out.

That’s how you trade a generational level without bleeding capital trying to be a hero. Let the level prove itself. Let the chart confirm. Then commit.

I’ll be watching $121.61 every day until this resolves.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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It is Sunday, which means it is time for the Weekend Review, and last week was one of those weeks where the trade plans paid for themselves many times over. If you were following along, we caught some incredible moves. If you were in the Discord room, it was even better. We absolutely crushed it, and now the job is simple: reset, prepare, and get ready to do it again.

Coming into this week, the market is still structurally bullish across the higher time frames. We have not lost support on any meaningful time frame yet. However, we are stretched, we are overextended, and we have several pieces of evidence suggesting that a healthy pullback could be close. That does not mean I am bearish. I want to be very clear on that. I am still extremely bullish overall, but I do think some rotation would be healthy, and if we get it, I want to be prepared to buy the right support instead of chasing all time highs.

🧠 Current Market Context

Overextended, But Still Bullish

The bigger picture is straightforward. We are still in an uptrend. Monthly, weekly, daily, and 4 hour structure are still pointing higher. By all rights, we are still pointed up. But from a value perspective, we are getting expensive. ES is pushing well above the yearly VWAP structure, riding above the one and a half standard deviation and pressing through the two standard deviation area. When markets push too far outside value, they often need to get sucked back in and create some type of mean reversion move.

That is the key for this week. I am not looking at this market saying, “let’s get short and stay short.” I am looking at this market saying, “if they finally rotate, where is the next professional buy?” The data we discussed previously suggested a potential pullback window anywhere from 8 to 40 days out, with the prime window around 3 to 8 trading days. This coming week brings us into that prime window, so the timing lines up with what the chart is already telling us.

The weekly TPO also supports the same idea. We have a very inefficient structure up here. We have a value area high, but no real value area low. We have a lowercase b shaped profile, low time and volume spent near the highs, and a massive imbalance underneath. That does not guarantee downside immediately, but it tells me this market has unfinished business below if support starts to break.

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🚨 VIX Analysis: The 17.44 Above Below Pivot

VIX is sitting down in the 16.50 to 17.00 handle, and every time we get into this area, we tend to see a pop. That pop in VIX usually creates at least some pressure on ES and SPX. The last and final untested support area at 16.34 played and held, so now the entire VIX map comes down to whether it can reclaim and hold above 17.44 to 17.48.

The Main Pivot: 17.44 to 17.48

If VIX pushes above 17.44 to 17.48, that becomes a headwind for the indices. That is where I would expect ES and SPX to start feeling pressure, and that could be the trigger that finally gives us the pullback we have been preparing for.

The First Resistance Path: 20.33 into 20.78 to 21.49

If VIX pushes through 20.33, the next major area is 20.78 to 21.49. This zone has been well tested time and time again, but it is still important. If VIX gets into this area while ES or SPX is sitting at quality support, that could create a fantastic counter trade opportunity. In other words, VIX up, indices down, and then we look for VIX resistance to create the equity reversal.

The Bigger VIX Ceiling: 23.43 into 24.70

If VIX pushes above 21.49, we can traverse much higher into 23.43 and then the big monthly resistance at 24.70. If VIX gets into 23.43 or 24.70 while ES is trading into one of our major support zones, that is where I would be looking very closely for the reversal setup in ES.

The Downside VIX Path: Below 16.34

If VIX breaks below 16.34, we can continue to suppress volatility. That would be a tailwind for ES and could help push price back toward all time highs. There is a bigger monthly level below, and even though it is tested, I would still expect a reaction based on how significant that location is.

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📊 SPX Context: The 7173.91 to 7178.00 Decision Area

SPX looks very similar to ES. We have been cruising around all time highs, and the market made it up toward the 7172.72 to 7172.73 area. Can we continue higher? Absolutely. There is no confirmed reason yet to be looking for a sustained down move. But we are overcooked, and a pullback would be healthy.

The major SPX area that needs to hold is 7173.91 to 7178.00. That is the zone that determines whether we continue to traverse all time highs or start rotating back into prior value.

If SPX holds 7173.91 to 7178.00, we can continue pushing higher and potentially make new highs.

If SPX breaks below 7168.00, we can start to rotate lower. From there, the next untested area is 7094.00, which is a 4 hour leg up. I would want to see 7094.00 play and then reclaim the 7108.00 daily to get the pop back up.

If 7094.00 does not hold, we have 7064.00 as a tested daily, but I do not view that as the strongest first touch support. The next big SPX spot I like is 7030.00. Ideally, we sweep the lows, play 7030.00, reclaim the lows, and then get back above 7064.00 for the continuation pop.

If SPX really pulls back, the big area for me is 6940.00. That is a weekly, monthly, and daily confluence zone, and I absolutely love that location. That is the jam. If SPX breaks below 7064.00, I really want to see the 6950s into 6940.00 hold for continuation back higher. Below that, the 6850.00 to 6845.00 area is also a monster area, with mid supports in the 6880s and 6870s.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

The plan this week is not complicated. Above 7204.75, the Bulls still have the structure they need. Below 7204.75, we start opening the door to deeper rotation. Below 7134.00, the downside opens materially, and we can short into support. But do not get it twisted: these lower levels are buy the dip locations for me until the market proves otherwise.

The two biggest decision points are 7204.75 and 7134.00. The first is the current make or break support zone. The second is the downside momentum trigger. If 7204.75 holds, we can rotate back toward 7250.00 and potentially new all time highs. If 7134.00 breaks, we can clean up the bearish imbalance into the 7050.00 area and then start looking for quality support.

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🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Daily Resistance And Rejection Zone: 7250.00 to 7264.00

7264.00 is the current daily resistance. 7250.00 is the key TPO and 4 hour threshold that we closed below. This gives us a roughly 14 point resistance zone.

• Context: The market closed below 7250.00, and the weekly TPO suggests that below 7250.00, we can continue rotating toward the 7200.00 area. The 7264.00 daily remains current resistance.

• Short Setup: If we push back into 7250.00 to 7264.00 and fail, this area can absolutely lead us back down.

• Warning: If price moves above 7250.00 and starts holding, be cautious pressing shorts. Above 7250.00, the Bulls can try to regain control and push back toward all time highs.

The Previous Weekly Value Area High Magnet: 7212.00 to 7200.00

7212.00 is the previous weekly value area high, and the broader 7200.00 area is the first cleanup target from the weekly TPO structure.

• Context: This is the first area the market can rotate into to start repairing the inefficient profile. A move into 7212.00 or the broader 7200.00 area would make sense from a market structure standpoint.

• Actionable Setup: Shorts from the upper resistance zone can use 7212.00 to 7200.00 as a first cleanup target.

• Buy Setup: If price rotates into 7204.75 to 7197.00 and buyers defend, this is where I become interested in the long side again.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Make Or Break Support Zone: 7204.75 to 7197.00

7204.75 is the daily level that needs to hold to keep this market pushing higher. 7197.00 is the lower 4 hour level, and this zone is also aligned with last week’s VWAP.

• Context: This is the same major area reflected in SPX. If this zone holds, the Bulls are still in control, and we can rotate back into 7250.00 or higher.

• Buy Setup: I will more than likely be a buyer in this zone if it plays cleanly. The first target is back toward 7250.00. If price pushes through 7250.00 and holds, we can make new all time highs again from this area.

• Warning: This is the big make or break area. If 7204.75 to 7197.00 fails, we open the door to 7145.00 and then potentially 7134.00.

The Untested 4 Hour Pullback Level: 7145.00 to 7165.00

7145.00 is the only truly untested 4 hour level below the current support zone. 7165.00 is the daily level we want to reclaim if 7145.00 plays.

• Context: If we break the 7204.75 to 7197.00 zone, this is the next clean untested support area. But once we are back underneath 7204.75, the battle becomes much harder because that old support can become resistance.

• Buy Setup: I want to see 7145.00 play and then reclaim 7165.00. If that happens, we can look for continuation back toward the 7205.00 area.

• Profit Target: The 7205.00 area becomes a great first target from 7145.00 because it was a monster area last week and can easily smack price on first touch from below.

• Warning: If we fail to reclaim 7165.00, this can remain heavy.

The Downside Momentum Pivot: 7134.00 to 7130.00

7134.00 is the daily level that has already played twice and sent us to all time highs. The weekly TPO also points to 7130.00 as the line where the market starts to move lower.

• Context: This is where things get serious. Below 7134.00 to 7130.00, we open the bearish imbalance that can take us down toward 7050.00.

• Short Setup: Below 7130.00, I am looking to short into support. This does not mean I am bearish long term. It means the structure opens the door for downside cleanup.

• Warning: Once 7134.00 breaks, do not blindly buy the first dip. Let price come into real support.

The Sweep And Reclaim Trade: 7079.00

7079.00 is the 4 hour sweep level that lines up with the same type of setup we saw on SPX.

• Context: If price breaks below 7134.00, we could sweep into 7079.00 and attempt to reclaim.

• Sweep Setup: I want to see 7079.00 play, sweep liquidity, and then reclaim 7079.00 with strength.

• Target: If that reclaim triggers, we could get a juicy trade back toward 7134.00.

The Prime Buy Zone: 7022.75 to 7004.00

7022.75 is an untested daily. 7004.00 is a weekly. In the middle of this zone, we have the 4 hour area around 7018.50. This entire zone is prime for the buy.

• Context: This is one of the first big areas I want to watch if we get a deeper pullback. It lines up with the bearish imbalance cleanup and gives us quality structure to do business.

• Buy Setup: If price comes into 7022.75 to 7004.00 and holds, I want to see a reclaim of 7004.00, then a reclaim of 7022.75. If we get that, we are off to the races.

• Warning: We do need to watch the broader 7008.00 to 7020.00 area if price comes into this zone. This could hold first, or price could flush lower into the next major area before reclaiming.

The Favorite High Time Frame Buy Zone: 6961.75 to 6963.00

This is my favorite location. 6961.75 to 6963.00 is the monthly, weekly, and daily confluence area, and it lines up beautifully with the SPX 6940.00 zone.

• Context: This is the real best location I want to buy if we get a meaningful pullback. This zone would satisfy the larger pullback idea and still keep the higher time frame bullish structure intact.

• Buy Setup: If 7000.00 does not hold, I think the 6960s can absolutely do it. I want to see buyers defend this area and reclaim back above the prior breakdown structure.

• Expectation: A move into the 6960s would be roughly the type of 4% pullback that fits the prior data window. That would be healthy, not bearish, as long as buyers show up.

The Deep High Time Frame Support Cluster: 6883.00 to 6834.00

Below the 6960s, we have weekly, daily, and 4 hour support levels between 6883.00 and 6834.00. This area also has the 200 day, 100 day, and 50 day moving averages nearby.

• Context: This is a much more aggressive selloff scenario, and I am not expecting this as the primary outcome this week. But if the market does push lower, this area should be respected.

• Buy Setup: I would expect a reaction if we come into 6883.00 to 6834.00, but we would need to reevaluate the structure once we get there.

• Warning: Below this zone, things get very real.

🚨 Momentum Shift Levels

Upside Momentum Level: 7250.00

If ES reclaims and holds above 7250.00, the Bulls can regain control and push back toward 7264.00 and potentially new all time highs.

Primary Support Line In The Sand: 7204.75

As long as 7204.75 holds, we can continue higher. This is the first major make or break level for the week.

Downside Momentum Level: 7134.00 to 7130.00

Below 7134.00 to 7130.00, the market opens the downside imbalance and we can short into support.

Prime Buy The Dip Level: 6961.75 to 6963.00

This is my favorite deeper buy location. If we get there, this is where I want to be extremely focused.

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📌 Cheat Sheet — Quick Levels Map

🧠 Final Thoughts

This is one of those weeks where discipline matters. We are still bullish. We have not lost support on any real time frame. But the market is extended, VIX is suppressed, the weekly TPO is inefficient, and the yearly VWAP structure is screaming expensive. That does not make me bearish. It makes me patient.

The best trade this week may not be chasing highs. It may be letting the market rotate, letting VIX pop, and then stepping in at real support. If 7204.75 holds, I am looking back toward 7250.00 and potentially new highs. If 7134.00 breaks, we can short into support, with 7079.00, 7022.75 to 7004.00, and ultimately 6961.75 to 6963.00 as the key buy the dip roadmap. Do not get it twisted. These are buy opportunities until the market proves otherwise.

Use VIX as the tiebreaker. If VIX pushes into 20.78 to 21.49, 23.43, or 24.70 while ES is into major support, that is where we could get the next great reversal opportunity. Stay patient, let the levels come to you, and do not force trades in the middle of nowhere.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 TradingView Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7264.00|D|D
7204.75|D|D
7197.00|4HR|4H
7165.00|D|TD
7145.00|4HR|4H
7134.00|D|TD
7079.00|4HR|4H
7022.75|D|D
7018.50|4HR|4H
7004.00|WK|W
6963.00|MO/WK/D Big Buy Spot|M
6961.75|MO/WK/D Mega Buy|D
6883.00|WK/D/4HR Support|W
6834.00|WK/D/4HR Support|D

So let me make this simple. Out of every prop firm I’ve evaluated over the years, there are exactly two I actively trade with, recommend to my community, and have personally been paid by: Apex Trader Funding and Lucid Trading. Both of them have audited VICI Trading Solutions through a brutal industry-wide affiliate purge that wiped out most of our competitors. We’re still standing as an approved vendor with both, and that tells you something about who they want to associate with — and who they don’t.

Each firm has its own use case. Each one fills a gap the other doesn’t. Below is what I trade with both, why, and exactly how to get in cheap.

Apex Trader Funding: The Industry Heavyweight

The basics. Apex was founded in 2021 by Darrell Martin in Austin, Texas. Since then, they’ve paid out over $700 million to traders, hold a 4.4/5 rating on Trustpilot from 18,000+ reviews, and operate in 100+ countries with a Discord community north of 59,000 members. By volume, they are the most-used futures prop firm in the world. There’s a reason for that.

The killer feature: 20 accounts. This is what separates Apex from everyone else. You can run up to 20 funded accounts simultaneously under one username, and when paired with copy trading, that gives you the kind of scale that simply isn’t available anywhere else in retail prop trading. If you’re consistent and you want to treat this like a real business — stacking payouts across multiple accounts, diversifying across products and sessions — Apex is the only game in town.

EOD drawdown is finally here. Historically, Apex was known for its intraday trailing drawdown, the rule that tracked your equity high in real-time and made evaluations notoriously challenging. As of the March 2026 overhaul, Apex now offers both intraday AND end-of-day trailing drawdown on the same account sizes. EOD drawdown is, in my opinion, a major upgrade for most traders. It means your trades can swing during the day without immediately threatening your account — only your end-of-day balance gets locked in against the trail. This single change opens Apex up to a far wider range of trading styles. Note: intraday-drawdown evaluations are priced lower than the EOD versions because they’re harder to pass.

Account sizes and platforms. New accounts come in $25K, $50K, $100K, and $150K sizes, with one-time fees and no recurring billing. Connections run through Rithmic, Tradovate, or WealthCharts — which means access to just about any serious charting platform you’d want, including TradingView, NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart, MotiveWave, and more. Whatever your workflow, Apex supports it.

The sales. This is where Apex separates itself again. They run 80–90% off promotions on a near-monthly basis, which means you can grab a $50K or $100K evaluation account for $30–$50. That’s not a typo. For newer traders looking to test a strategy with real risk and real reward — without putting up real capital — there’s no cheaper or more reputable on-ramp in the industry.

Payouts. This is the one area where Apex isn’t best-in-class. Payouts are reliable but not instant — once submitted, processing can take anywhere from 24 hours to up to five business days, depending on volume. They also operate on a payout cycle that requires meeting trading-day minimums between requests. The good news: when they pay, they pay. The track record speaks for itself.

How to get the discount. Use the link below and enter “VICI” at checkout. This stacks on top of whatever current sale Apex is running. As of this writing, that’s a 90% off promotion — about as deep as it gets in this industry.

→ Get Apex Trader Funding with code VICI

Lucid Trading: The Fast-Moving Challenger

The basics. Lucid Trading is a newer entrant — founded by AJ Campanella in early 2025 — that has scaled faster than any prop firm I’ve watched in this industry. They’ve already paid out over $60 million to traders, built a community of 50,000+ registered traders, and hold a 4.7/5 rating on Trustpilot from 3,200+ reviews. They’re not the biggest yet, but they’re growing aggressively, and they’ve earned every bit of that traction.

The headline feature: no recurring fees, ever. Lucid runs on a one-time fee model across the board. You pay once and that’s it. If you don’t hit your profit target in 30 days, you don’t get billed again to keep going. This is enormous for traders who need time to grind out a target without artificial pressure forcing them to oversize, force trades, or rush setups just to beat a billing cycle. Anyone who’s blown an account because they were trying to “beat the clock” knows exactly why this matters.

EOD trailing drawdown — across every program. While Apex gives you a choice between intraday and EOD, every single Lucid program runs end-of-day trailing drawdown by default. For traders whose strategies need room to breathe during the session, this is a meaningful structural advantage. You can take a normal intraday pullback without immediately compromising your account.

Direct-to-funded accounts. This is the feature that hits hardest for experienced traders. Lucid’s LucidDirect program offers direct-to-funded accounts in sizes from $25K to $150K that skip the evaluation entirely. You pay a higher upfront fee, but you start trading firm capital on day one. As long as you meet the consistency rules, every dollar you make is yours. For skilled traders who don’t want to spend two weeks proving themselves on an evaluation, this is a serious shortcut.

Scale up with copy trading — up to 5 accounts. Lucid lets you run up to 5 funded accounts simultaneously via copy trade, which is a meaningful scaling lever that often gets overlooked when traders compare the two firms. Apex still wins the raw-account-count battle with its 20-account ceiling, but five accounts is more than enough to legitimately stack payouts, diversify across products, and turn a consistent strategy into real income. For traders who want the speed and flexibility of Lucid's structure but still want the leverage of running multiple accounts off a single setup, this is the feature that closes the gap.

The killer feature: 15-minute payouts. This is where Lucid genuinely changed the game. Their average payout speed from request to receipt is 15 minutes. Not 24 hours. Not 5 business days. Fifteen minutes. They built out their payment infrastructure — Plaid for US instant transfers, alongside global bank, PayPal, and crypto rails — specifically to deliver this. Once you’ve experienced an instant payout, going back to multi-day processing feels like a step backward.

Account types in plain English. Lucid runs three main programs: LucidFlex (the flagship — zero daily loss limit and no funded consistency rule, one of the most flexible structures in the industry), LucidPro (lower evaluation hurdle, with consistency rules that kick in once funded), and LucidDirect (skip the eval entirely). All sizes run from $25K to $150K. A LucidMaxx tier exists by invite only for proven traders.

Platforms. Lucid supports a deep platform stack across CQG and Rithmic data feeds: NinjaTrader, Tradovate, TradingView, MotiveWave, Quantower, TradeSea, Bookmap, Jigsaw Daytradr, plus TradersPost for automation. Whatever you trade on, they connect to it.

How to get the discount. Use the link below and enter “VICI” at checkout. This unlocks 40% off every Lucid product — the maximum publicly available discount.

→ Get Lucid Trading with code VICI

Which One Is Right for You?

Honest answer: probably both, depending on what you’re trying to do.

Choose Apex if you want maximum scale (the 20-account ceiling is unmatched), you trade hard during the deep sales, and you have the discipline to handle their drawdown structure.

Choose Lucid if you value flexibility and speed — one-time fees, EOD drawdown across every program, instant payouts — or you’re a proven trader who wants to skip the evaluation entirely with LucidDirect.

I trade with both. They serve different roles in my own portfolio of funded accounts, and both have paid me reliably.

What I’m not going to tell you is that these are the only two prop firms in the industry — they aren’t. What I am telling you is that after years in this business, after watching firms come and go, and after being audited multiple times by every vendor we work with, these are the two I have on my desk every single day. That’s the highest endorsement I can give.

Do your own research. Read their rule books. Check their Trustpilot pages yourself. But when you’re ready to pull the trigger, use the links and code VICI to get the best possible deal.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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Here’s what we got into:

Another week in the green. Bubba’s Daily Trade Finder hasn’t had a losing week in over a year. We dig into why the average DTF subscriber made 50 bucks today and the bigger traders cleared $500-1,000 trading just two micros.

The bearish case nobody’s making. Bubba walks through why he thinks this rally is a retail trap — the big banks sitting on the sidelines, the lighter volume on every push higher, and what he believes the firms are really waiting for before they swing the bat. Important caveat: bearish thesis ≠ getting short. Trade the chart in front of you.

Why a 2-4% pullback would be wildly bullish. I show the yearly VWAP standard deviations on SPX and walk through the inefficiencies on the weekly profile that have to get repaired. The 7200 zone is the line in the sand for me on Monday’s open.

The Lululemon trade I’ve been stalking since June. A high-time-frame setup playing the COVID low sweep and reclaim — the exact same structure that delivered 487% on Etsy and that we nailed on Wayfair from 40.

Bubba’s gold call wheel. This one is gold (literally). Bubba breaks down a strategy where you buy two September GLD 425 calls for $5,400, then sell every-other-day calls against them collecting roughly $600/week. Math: $12K in premium against a $5,400 investment over 140 days. He explains why one-by-two protects your upside if gold rips.

The expected move trade. How Bubba uses options-implied moves to fade overstretched earnings reactions — the Google short we put on, and the Coinbase setup teed up for next week.

Plus the Kentucky Oaks degenerate hour and Rob’s brain melting in real time.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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Get more from Ryan Bailey's S&P Edge in the Substack app

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See You Soon!
Ryan Bailey

#trading #daytrader #daytrading

Get more from Ryan Bailey's S&P Edge in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Friday, May 1st, and we come into the morning off an insane trade plan yesterday. We called the bottom at 7155.00 - 7158.00, which was the major buy noted in the trade plan title, and once again the plan paid dividends. 7158.00 played and took us well over 100 points in the cash session, pushing us well past all-time highs and giving Team VICI one of the biggest single-call days we have had all week. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of that monster move. It was set up to perfection.

As we come into this morning, price has been drifting sideways all night in a very tight 19.50-point range. We have once again pushed up and accepted value outside of our current two-week balance range, which is exactly what we were anticipating from yesterday’s long. We had not lost support on any timeframe, we had no reason to be looking for shorts, and yesterday’s trade plan title laid out the all-time-high scenario clearly. Now here we are, basing sideways at the highs in Positive Gamma territory on a Friday with extremely muted range expectations.

We have also made another all-time high in Globex at 7265.75. As I have said many times before, Globex all-time highs generally become cash-session targets because cash-session players do not like leaving those highs untouched. That makes 7265.75 a major target this morning, with the 7265.00 Call Wall sitting right there as a magnet and area of contention.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No major Red Tag news to speak of today. The bigger theme is Friday price discovery, low relative volume, and all-time-high acceptance.

• Volume: Relative Volume is negative 52% this morning, which tells us this could be a very slow, grindy session. With volume this low, we need to reduce expectations and avoid forcing trades.

• Range: Expected range is approximately 67 points. With only a 19.50-point overnight range and Relative Volume negative 52%, the adjusted expectation is closer to 33.50 points total, leaving only about 14 points above or below the overnight high or low for extension.

• Gamma: We are in Positive Gamma territory, but the gamma flip has rolled up to 7235.00, sitting only about 20 points below current price. Dealers are rolling hedges higher, which supports upside, but a break below 7235.00 can increase volatility as hedging shifts back to the downside.

• Trend: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour timeframes are all still pointed higher. This is still buy-the-dip territory until proven otherwise, with the main ES line in the sand sitting around 7200.00 - 7213.75.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Muted Positive Gamma Grind at All-Time Highs

We continue to surf all-time highs, and the structure is still very clear. We have not lost on any major timeframe. Monthly, Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour are all still pointed up, and there is no reason to be looking for a random short just because price feels high. This is still a buy-the-dip environment, but because we are at all-time highs on a Friday with Relative Volume around negative 52%, we need to be extremely careful about expecting harsh movement. This may be a slow, grindy, sideways session where the market simply accepts value and bases most of the day.

The important gamma note is that the flip level has rolled up again to 7235.00. That tells us options dealers continue to roll their hedges higher and anticipate more upside. However, the closer the gamma flip gets to current price, the more careful we must be. If ES pushes below 7235.00, that can cause dealers to hedge back to the downside and increase volatility. At the same time, because 7235.00 also has a Put Wall, it can potentially act as support in this muted range environment, even though it is not a normal structural level I would usually lean on.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, April 30th, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan yesterday. We essentially caught all three longs on the way down, and every single one paid well over 10 to 15 points. The morning long off the 7155.50 midpoint pivot played for 20 points, the sweep of the overnight low and yesterday’s low paid roughly 15 points, and then the amazing 4-Hour level we have eyed for about a week at 7132.00 ultimately paid for 70 points, taking us all the way up into our massive gamma flip resistance at 7200.00.

Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of this incredible trade plan yesterday. It was truly miraculous, especially given the fact that it was FOMC and our levels still played perfectly. That is a testament to our process, our system, and the edge we continue to build every single day.

As we come into today, we have a very interesting predicament. The overnight high is resting right at 7200.00, which was our massive resistance area yesterday, and yesterday’s low / overnight low is sitting around 7134.00, which is our major daily pivot that we absolutely had to hold to keep upside momentum alive. Last night, price moved from 7132.00 all the way to 7200.00, reached 7200.00 twice, came all the way back down to test 7132.00 again, held support, and then launched all the way back into 7200.00 this morning. We are sitting less than 20 points away from the all-time high on ES, and with relative volume elevated, we are looking for a breakout in one direction or the other.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: Red Tag news hits at 8:30 AM Eastern premarket with Advanced GDP, Core PCE, Employment Cost Index, Advanced GDP Price Index, and Unemployment Claims. We also come in post-FOMC, where the Fed held rates steady, and after huge tech earnings yesterday post-close across Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta.

• Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at 66%. That means we have active participation, and even though the expected range has already been completed overnight, the relative-volume calculation gives us approximately 48 points of potential extension above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Range: Expected range is 68 points, and we have already moved 68 points in the overnight session. Price has also traversed roughly 75 points back and forth two separate times, making this an extremely healthy overnight range heading into the cash session.

• Gamma: We have moved from Negative Gamma back into Positive Gamma territory, with the gamma flip now well underneath us at 7100.00. Dealers are now hedging back to the upside, and now that the FOMC and earnings risk has passed, that creates a real buy-the-dip backdrop.

• Trend: We are up on the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour timeframes. This is a buy-the-dip moment until proven otherwise. Above 7200.00 and essentially 7205.00, we can squeeze toward the Globex all-time high at 7223.25; underneath 7132.00, things get rough fast.

🧠 Current Market Context

Positive Gamma Buy-The-Dip Into All-Time Highs

We are still very much pointed in the upside direction. The overnight price action moved roughly 75 points, continued to hold the major support at 7132.00, and launched us back above 7200.00 at the time of this writing. We are sitting directly at the very significant 7200.75 4-Hour level, which already tested last night and played for well over 75 points as price came all the way back down. That means the liquidity at this level has already been tapped, and a push higher from here is absolutely plausible.

The bigger structural shift is the gamma regime. The gamma flip has moved from being a major resistance battle at 7200.00 back down to 7100.00, putting us back in Positive Gamma territory. That tells us dealers are hedging to the upside now that volatility and event risk have come out of the market. Because we are up on the Daily, Weekly, and 4-Hour timeframes, I am not looking to blindly short resistance. I want to use these resistance levels as long targets, and I want to buy pullbacks into 4-Hour and Daily support when the trigger confirms.

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Tomorrow night, I’m spending an hour on camera doing something I’ve been wanting to do for a while — walking through the entire S&P Edge daily trade plan, top to bottom. Every section. Every level. Every reason it’s on the page.

Why now? Because the traders who get the most out of the plan are the ones who actually understand every piece of it. Not just what the levels are — but why they’re there, which timeframe they’re drawn from, and what the actionable setup is telling you to do at each one. The plan is built to be tradeable on day one. But there’s no replacement for hearing the architect walk you through the building.

If you’ve ever opened the morning plan and felt like there was more in there than you knew how to use, this hour is for you.

The Details

• Date: Thursday, April 30

• Time: 6:00 PM ET

• Format: ~45-minute walkthrough + 15 minutes of live Q&A

• Cost: Free

• Replay: Sent to every registered attendee — even if you can’t make it live

Register here: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

CLICK TO REGISTER

What We’re Going to Cover

This is a partial list. There’s more in the room.

• The chart legend that shows up on every chart I publish — and the one color rule that keeps everything readable across ES, SPX, VIX, or anything else

• The two — and only two — types of levels I consider worth trading

• The 90% rule on the second standard deviation that anchors how I think about daily ranges

• GEX decoded: call walls, put walls, the options pivot, and why the gamma flip is the line dealers have to defend

• Why positive gamma and negative gamma are the same market with completely different rules — and how knowing which regime you’re in changes your sizing, your patience, and your targets

• The five-part anatomy of every level in the plan — and the one box that matters more than the other four combined

• The exact mechanics I use to enter high-conviction trades: resting orders, the 5-tick front run, and how I size my stop

• Why I take profits at higher-timeframe levels — and how the day’s expected range math tells me when to flatten and when to let it run

A lot of this is stuff I’ve alluded to in the room over the years. This is the first time I’m putting all of it in one place and walking through it on camera.

The Bonus

Every registered attendee is automatically entered to win a free prop firm evaluation. That’s it — no extra step, no purchase. Register, and you’re in the drawing. Show up live or watch the replay later. Either way, you’re entered.

And about that replay: it only goes out to people who registered. If you can’t make it live, register anyway. The recording lands in your inbox afterward, and you’ll have it on your own time, on your own schedule, for as long as you want it.

Why You Should Be There Live If You Can

The Q&A is the part I’m most excited about.

If you’ve been an S&P Edge subscriber for a while, this is the master class. Come back to it any time you feel rusty. Bring the questions you’ve been sitting on — the tactical stuff, the structural stuff, the “wait, why do you do it that way” stuff. I’ll give you the most honest, useful answer I can.

If you’re not yet a subscriber and you’ve been on the fence, this is the most transparent look you’ll get at how I trade and how I expect the people in our community to trade. By the end of the hour, you’ll know whether the plan is the right fit for the way you approach the market.

Either way — show up, ask questions, and let’s get you trading the plan with confidence.

Register here: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

CLICK TO REGISTER

See you tomorrow at 6.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, April 29th, and we come off another fabulous day in the trade plan. Our 7152.00 battleground held the lows yesterday pre-market and was able to pop us up 30 points, and we were able to pinpoint the exact high of the day at 7181.00 and ride this back down into the 7150.00 area that we knew was our massive area of contention — bringing in over 30 points of profit both directions. Not to mention, late in the day our 7152.00 battleground held and propelled us all the way back to 7181.00 and even farther in the overnight session at 7188.00, essentially setting up another 38 points. Our trade plan pinpointed the exact high and low three times throughout yesterday — just an unbelievable display of precision. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the incredible action yesterday, as Team VICI always does.

Now let’s get into the day. We have a monster day today — FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM Eastern, and the press conference at 2:30 PM, which is absolutely surely going to shake this market. We have been drifting sideways at all-time highs waiting for news to essentially propel us in one direction or the other. As we continue to move sideways in the overnight session in a very tight range, we are obviously coiled and ready to make a move.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: Massive day. FOMC rate announcement at 2:00 PM EST followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM. They are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hold — no raising or lowering of rates. We will see how that turns out and if we get a surprise. FOMC rate announcements are usually the most volatile day of the quarter. My suggestion to everyone is get your money in the morning session, look for the one or two high quality trades, and leave the volatility for other people.

• Volume: Relative Volume is -14% this morning. We can take that into calculation, however due to the FOMC rate announcement today, it is a possibility to see our expected range get blown through entirely.

• Range: Expected range of 65 points. We have had a tight overnight range of only 22 points, leaving us approximately 42 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high or low. Be prepared for our expected range to potentially get blown through — FOMC days are usually the most volatile day of the quarter.

• Gamma: Major shift — options market makers are rolling the Gamma flip level down. We are still in Negative Gamma territory, but the flip level has moved down to our major area of resistance at 7200.00. This is strategically placed right by our major resistance — a break above 7200.00 would force dealers to flip and hedge their downside positions long, potentially catapulting price higher. Below it, they continue to keep the market suppressed.

• Trend: Still pointed up on every timeframe. We have not lost on the Weekly, Daily, or four-hour timeframes as of this writing. We have no reason to believe this market will dump as of yet — continue to look for longs until proven otherwise. Based on our data, we know we are due for a pullback at some point. They could pop new highs first before fading, which could be done easily through FOMC.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Coiled Range Into FOMC & The Gamma Flip Battleground

The ES is in a very interesting position. Technically we have not lost on any timeframe — we are still very much pointed to the upside with the Weekly, Daily, and four-hour all pointing up. However, based on our data we know we are due for a pullback at some point. We just don’t know when. They could pop new highs first before fading, which could be done easily through FOMC. Another big cue is that the Gamma flip level has rolled down a few strikes lower to 7200.00 — actually within our structure now. This creates a very interesting ordeal because 7200.00 is right by an area of resistance we have. If this area is pushed above, dealers will have to flip their positions and start buying instead of selling, meaning it could force the indices much higher.

We have continued to drift sideways for two weeks — coiled and waiting for FOMC to propel us in one direction or the other. Yesterday’s overnight push to 7188.00 and the continued holding of 7165.25 as support tells us the bulls are defending. The acceptance above 7204.00 would put us back above the Gamma flip level and our Daily and four-hour resistance — dealers would have to reverse positions and start hedging to the long side, causing price to catapult higher as they cover. Conversely, a break below 7155.50 opens the door to a fast move into 7132.00 for our last stand sweep-and-reclaim.

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#trading #daytrader #daytrading

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, April 28th, and we wake up to find ourselves in an interesting predicament. The indices have sold off 49 points from yesterday’s close, putting us right back in the middle of this massive two-week range. Price made an overnight all-time high and then proceeded to sell off 49.25 points at the time of this writing. We have come down into some major areas of support, however we have had an interesting turn of events: options market makers have flipped short and moved our Gamma flip level all the way up to 7235.00, leaving us in negative gamma territory.

This isn’t a surprise to us. Over the weekend, I put out a post regarding a potential two-to-four percent pullback before finding support and catapulting the ES back to all-time highs. Is this the start of the pullback, or simply profit taking into support to buy up today? We will soon find out. As we come down, we are already moving below significant areas of support and we are directly back in the middle of last week’s range, sitting at the point of control — an extremely important spot I pointed out in both the Weekend Review and some tweets yesterday, showing a clearly defined level of buyers and sellers.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We only have Consumer Confidence after the open at 10:00 AM Eastern. Even though this isn’t a Red Tag event, it is the only news event we have for both Monday and Tuesday — we cannot expect this to pass quietly. Be on the lookout and set your alarms for 10:00 AM EST.

• Volume: Relative Volume has increased +24%. This increases our potential range for the day by close to 25%, expanding our total range to approximately 86 points in its entirety.

• Range: Expected range of 69 points. We have currently moved 69 points in the overnight session — a full normal range already. With the +24% relative volume increase, total potential range expands to approximately 86 points, leaving us approximately 18 points above or below the overnight high or low for an expected remaining range. This is not set in stone but a good guide for the day.

• Gamma: Negative Gamma — this is the major shift. Options market makers have rolled the Gamma flip level all the way up past our all-time highs to 7235.00, completely flipping the script from yesterday when it sat under our significant support at 7135.00. This is a clear indication dealers are hedging to the downside and expecting some sort of rotation. Look for increased volatility and a potentially expanded range. Money will be made in both directions, but this gives us an idea of a potential downside lean.

• Trend: Mixed — challenging day. We are still currently up on all timeframes — we have not lost support on the Weekly, Daily, or four-hour as of this writing. This makes it extremely difficult to have a downside bias because all timeframes still point to the upside. However, our data shows we are looking for rotations, and the negative gamma regime adds further reason to exercise caution.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Anticipated Rotation & The Weekly POC Battle

ES comes into the morning now down 54 points at the time of this writing as they continue to sell this market off pre-market. This is certainly no surprise to us — we have been predicting this to happen since early weekend. Our data shows us that we are looking for a potential two-to-four percent pullback before coming down into support to make another leg up, so this move down has been of no surprise to Substack subscribers. In fact, this was something we have been waiting for.

We are now sitting directly at the previous weekly point of control at 7152.00 — this is the clearly defined level of buyers and sellers, and it is obviously clear where things go bad if we continue to push below the weekly POC. One of the important facts to note that makes today a little more challenging is that we are still currently up on all timeframes. This makes it extremely difficult to have a downside bias because all timeframes still point to the upside. However, we know based on our data that we are looking for rotations, and we are now in a negative gamma regime. This does not mean we will immediately pull back, but putting all the data together certainly gives us a reason to exercise caution and be safe.

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I just put out a publication this weekend that everyone reading this needs to take ten minutes with. It is not behind a paywall, it is completely free, and it lays out a banger of a swing trade that I have essentially handed to you on a silver platter. The data says we should expect roughly a 2% to 4% pullback over the next week or so, and then a follow-through rally of approximately 5% off of that pullback. That is a swing trade you can put on and go play golf with. Read it, share it with your friends, and use the levels we are about to walk through as your execution map. This is the kind of alpha people pay thousands a month chasing on Twitter — and I am giving it away for free.

📣 Webinar — How to Trade the Trade Plan I am hosting a live webinar on April 30th at 6:00 PM EST — How to Trade the Trade Plan. We are going to walk through why the levels matter, how to use the options levels, and most importantly I will be doing a full Q&A at the end. Bring your questions. Reserve your seat now → https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan

📰 The Market Top Write-Up — Read This Before Monday Over the weekend I published a free post breaking down whether the rally is topping. The data does not say crash — it says 2–4% pullback, then another 5% rally. This piece confirms our entire weekend bias and outlines an incredible swing trade setup. Read it, retweet it, share it with a friend.

☕ Free SPX Edge AM Brief Free for a limited time — point of controls, value areas, TWAP positioning, pattern intelligence, and 4 a.m.-fresh news, all delivered before the open. Sign up → https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-edge

Also — I just did a podcast with Bubba, totally unscripted for about an hour. It is up on X, Substack, and YouTube. Tune in if you get a chance.

A Note on This Week’s Market:

• Data Thesis: The data points to a 2% to 4% pullback over the next week or so, followed by another 5% rally off that pullback. A 2% pullback brings SPX to roughly 7000, a 3% pullback brings us into the 6940 area, and a 4.5% pullback drops us into the 6850 monster zone. Any of these would be a fantastic buying opportunity given the projected follow-through.

• Range & Volume: This entire squeeze has been done on very thin volume with low liquidity, leaving gap fills below at the 6940 ES area. We are now closed and pushing higher than the 2nd standard deviation on the yearly VWAP — we are well outside expected value, which structurally supports the case for a reversion back toward our key support zones before the next leg up.

• Gamma: We remain in a Positive Gamma regime — dealers continue to hedge to the upside, which is a structural tailwind. This regime has not flipped, and that is a key reason the chart still points up.

• Trend: Up on all timeframes. The 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages are all curling to the upside. We have no reason to believe this thing is going to spill — we have massive support stacked underneath us. We trade the chart, and the chart points up. The question is not direction; the question is when the data-driven pullback comes and which level it stops at.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Extended Rally & The Pullback Roadmap

Right now we are riding the monthly TWAP one-standard-deviation band on SPX as we continue to trend hard to the upside. That is a strong structural tell — we are in trend, we are accepting value at the highs, and the path of least resistance is up. However, we are also closed and pushed above the 2nd standard deviation on the yearly VWAP, which means from a value perspective we are slightly extended. History says when we get sucked back inside the 2nd standard, we can retest it and go all the way back to the highs. Same setup is in play here — and the data we just published quantifies it: a 2-to-4% pullback followed by a 5% rally.

On SPX, the monthly TWAP sits at roughly 6897 — call it 6900 — and that is monthly value. Interestingly, that lines up perfectly with our potential pullback zone. A 2% pullback puts us around 7000, and a 3-to-4.5% pullback drops us into the 6940 to 6850 zones we will discuss below. Until that pullback arrives, the key SPX above/below is 7064 — under that level, we start peeling down into the support zones below. Our first SPX level to buy on a pullback is 7141 (4HR), and if price pulls back into that area we want it to get back above 7108 for confirmation that we are pushing higher, with first targets at 7141 and then new highs. Below 7094.77 — the main 4HR leg up — things get shady. We do have a 4HR at 7030.64 that should get some love, and if it plays we want to see price reclaim 7064 for continuation back up to the 7100 profit-take area. Deeper down, my favorite SPX zones are the 6946 / 6940 Monthly/Daily combo (a fantastic spot for a long), the 6881 and 6869 Dailies, and the absolute monster 6849-6850 Weekly/Monthly combination paired with the 6839 Daily — that area would represent a roughly 4.5% pullback, and God bless if they give it to us, because the follow-through long would be amazing.

On ES, the picture rhymes perfectly with SPX. The Previous Weekly Value Area High at 7070 is the key floor for the current squeeze — stay above this and we keep pushing higher. 7152 is a prime buy spot if we pull back gently, and underneath 7152 is where things start to get a little shaky. Where everything truly goes south is underneath 7121 and the Previous Weekly VAL at 7132 — below that, we are no longer just consolidating, we are setting up for the deeper pullback toward our prime zones. The structural setup is clean: stay above 7152, we keep grinding; lose 7132, the data-driven pullback is in motion and we go shopping at our favorite spots below. The yearly VWAP point of control, by the way, sits at 6960 — which lines up almost perfectly with our 6963.50 Weekly and 6961.75 Daily confluence. That is not a coincidence. That is alpha.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 18.63 Line in the Sand

VIX is currently very suppressed — we are now underneath both the $21 handle and the $19 handle, and you guys know how adamant I have been about that $19 line. With VIX continuing to move lower, the big line in the sand has shifted lower as well, and we now have a daily level at 18.63 as our primary above/below pivot. As long as VIX remains under 18.63, the indices have a clear runway to continue drifting higher.

• The Headwind Stack: 19.42 (Tested Daily) and 20.78 (Weekly — recently smacked on the 21st), 21.49 (Daily — touched a few days after the 20.78 smack). A push above 18.63 sends VIX into the 19.42 Tested Daily and into the broader 4HR resistance zone. Above 20.78 is where we start getting suppression that bleeds into the indices, and a sustained move above 21.49 would have us re-evaluating the entire bullish thesis. None of this is on the immediate radar, but these are our ladder of escalating pressure.

• The Downside Reaction Zone: 18.17 (Support) and the combo of 17.48 (Untested Daily / Gap Fill) with 17.44 (Significant Monthly). VIX has support at 18.17 that could provide a reaction — do not mistake the deeper zone as the only spot to watch. However, the 17.44 / 17.48 combo is a meaningful structural support and a gap fill, and as we drift toward all-time highs on SPX, this is where I will personally be taking profits on my long index positions. We have no structural context to the upside on SPX other than options levels — so the VIX reaction zones are how I am going to time my exits.

• The Big-Picture Tell: Once we get into the $16 to $13 range — which we have talked about for months — historical reactions there are violent, but they are truly buying moments for the indices when they come. We are not there yet, but it is on the radar. Right now VIX is just getting pushed lower and there is no reason to believe it will not continue.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are playing the bullish thesis with the expectation of a healthy 2-to-4% pullback over the next week or so. The major above/below pivots are crystal clear: above 7152 we keep grinding, below 7132 the pullback engages, and below 7121 the broader weekly profile breaks down. The prime pullback buy zones are 7154.75 (favorite mid-range buy with Previous Weekly POC confluence), 7069.50 (the sexy 4HR sweep play), and the 6961.75 / 6963.50 Weekly/Daily/Yearly POC confluence — my absolute favorite spot on the entire map.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Singles Fill & Reclaim Zone: 7175.00 - 7181.00

7181.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 7178.00 (Weekly Singles Target), 7175.00 (Untested 1-Hour).

• Context: This is the upper band of the current consolidation. The 7181 4-Hour is technically untested but it is not my absolute favorite — even though it is untested, we still have singles in the profile down to 7178 that will more than likely need to get cleaned up before the next leg. The 7175 1-Hour sits right in this band and gives us a cleaner entry if we slice into it.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for price to play 7175, clean up the singles down to 7178, and reclaim 7181 for confirmation. A reclaim above 7181 also gets us back above Thursday’s high and above all the surrounding congestion — from there we can expect a potential squeeze right back toward new all-time highs. This is the cleanest immediate breakout play on the board.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Untested 4-Hour: 7164.00

7164.00 (Untested 4-Hour).

• Context: This is absolutely untested, but again, it is not my favorite level. It might play — I just do not want to be aggressive about it. Use it as a stepping stone, not as a primary buy.

• Actionable Setup: If price plays 7164 and shows a reaction, use it as part of the reclaim ladder back up toward 7181. Do not chase aggressively here.

The Favorite Mid-Range Buy: 7154.75

7154.75 (4-Hour / 1-Hour Combo / Previous Weekly POC).

• Context: This is the spot I really like in the upper range. It is a clean 4-Hour and 1-Hour combo that lines up almost perfectly with the Previous Weekly Point of Control — that is real confluence. 7152 sits right with it as a prime buy spot. Beneath this whole zone is where things start to get shaky.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for 7154.75 to play, then we want to see price get back above 7160 to engage, then above 7164, then above 7175, and finally above 7181 — the staircase reclaim that takes us right back toward a new all-time high. This is the cleanest structured buy of the upper range.

• Warning: This is the last untested area of support I have above the deep zones. Losing 7154.75 is significant — we would essentially be left with only the 7132.50 4-Hour as a sweep candidate before everything goes south.

The Critical Floor — 4HR / Tested Daily / P.W. VAL: 7132.00 - 7134.00

7134.00 (Very Tested Daily), 7132.50 (Untested 4-Hour), 7132.00 (Previous Weekly VAL), 7121.00 (Critical Profile Floor).

• Context: This is the line in the sand for the entire bullish micro-structure. The 7132.50 4-Hour is technically untested but they have missed it twice — I do not know how well it will play, but we cannot ignore it. It sits right next to the 7134 Very Tested Daily, and the Previous Weekly VAL at 7132 ties it all together. Beneath this combo, 7121 is where everything truly goes south based on the broader profile — this is the big selling ledge that, once lost, opens the gates to the deeper pullback.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for 7132 to play, then we want price to get back above 7136 for confirmation. If that happens, we will squeeze and come back probably into the 7150 area and potentially higher. There is still a massive amount of support in here as we base sideways.

• Warning: Everything goes bad underneath 7132. And it is really locked in below the Previous Weekly VAL at 7132. A sustained break below 7121 confirms the 2-4% data-driven pullback is engaging — at that point, stop trying to catch the falling knife and wait for the deeper buy zones to set up.

The Previous Weekly VAH: 7070.00

7070.00 (Previous Weekly VAH).

• Context: This is the floor of the previous week’s value area and the structural pivot for the current squeeze. We have closed outside the previous week’s value area and the week before that’s value area as well — meaning from a pure value perspective, we are slightly extended. We want to stay above 7070 to continue the push higher. A loss of this level signals real value-area mean reversion is in play.

• Actionable Setup: As long as price holds above 7070, the squeeze thesis remains intact. A break below opens the door to the sexy 4HR sweep play just below.

The Sexy 4-Hour Sweep: 7069.50

7069.50 (4-Hour).

• Context: This is the same spot on ES that I called out at 7030.64 on SPX — they line up perfectly. This is a sexy level and it sets up a really clean sweep play. We have a daily low here and another below it; when this profile swept the prior daily low recently, we squeezed all-time highs right after. Same setup is available here.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for price to come down here, play 7069.50, and reclaim 7080. If we get that reclaim, this thing will squeeze all the way back up to 7121 and then 7134 for an excellent target zone. I really like this trade — clean risk, defined invalidation, and a meaningful reward.

The 7000 Lean Zone: 7004.00 - 7022.00

7022.00 (Untested Daily), 7008.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 7004.00 (Weekly).

• Context: This is a support cluster I want to lean on — but I will not be aggressive here. The 7004 Weekly is honestly ambiguous on tested status (it shows tested on the RTH timeframe but not on the ETH timeframe), and I do not love the 7022 Daily on its own. What I do like is the 7008 4-Hour sitting right in the middle of the zone. The play is to let price come into the middle of this band, hold the 4-Hour, and reclaim 7022 to push higher using the 7004 Weekly as our support to lean on.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: Watch for 7008 to play, then look for a reclaim of 7022 for confirmation that buyers have stepped in. Do not get aggressive here until we either confirm with the reclaim or pull back into the deeper zone below.

The Prime Buy — Yearly POC Confluence: 6961.75 - 6963.50

6963.50 (Weekly), 6961.75 (Daily), 6960.00 (Yearly Point of Control).

• Context: This is my favorite spot on the entire map. The 6963.50 Weekly and the 6961.75 Daily form a powerful confluence — and the cherry on top is that the Yearly Point of Control sits at 6960, lining up almost perfectly with the rest. This zone has Monthly, Weekly, and Daily structure all stacked on top of the yearly value anchor. From the way I chart and the levels I love, this does not get any better. It is also the big top-down off our massive leg down. This is the prime buy.

• Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for 6961.75 to play or 6963.50 to play — then we want price to get back above 6989-6990 to engage and ultimately back above 7004 for our continuation higher. If this is the low and it confirms, we could just put on calls, go play golf, and ride it for weeks. This is the swing trade I outlined in the weekend write-up — the same one everyone should be reading.

The Deep Pullback Cluster: 6834.75 - 6883.00

6883.00 (Weekly), 6875.00 (Tested Daily), 6857.00 (Tested Monthly), 6834.75 (Daily).

• Context: This is my second-favorite high-timeframe zone if we get a deeper pullback — the 4.5% scenario. The 6883 Weekly is something we played on the way up. 6875 is a level that was important on the way up and on the way down — and when a level matters on both directions, you respect it. The 6857 Monthly is the famous monthly that kept the lid on things on the way down and was the major pivot once we got above it on the way up — everyone remembers this level. Below that, the 6834.75 Daily anchors the entire cluster.

• Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: If we see a deeper, faster pullback into this zone, look for a first-touch reaction at 6875 as the primary defense and then 6857 beneath. The deeper we go, the cleaner the swing-long risk/reward — but also the more reclaim work the bulls have to do. Require reclaims above each major pivot before sizing up.

• Warning: A loss of 6834.75 changes the structural picture meaningfully. The bullish trend is not broken until we lose this entire cluster, but if we do, it would be time to step back, let the dust settle, and reassess from scratch.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

The chart points up. The data points to a healthy pullback. Both can be true — and that is the entire setup for the week of April 27th. We are extended above the 2nd standard deviation on the yearly VWAP, we have left thin-volume gaps below us, and the data I just published this weekend says to expect a 2-4% pullback followed by a 5% rally. That is not a top call. That is a buy-the-dip roadmap. The job this week is not to predict the exact moment of the pullback — it is to be ready with our levels so we can execute when it arrives.

Above 7152 on ES, we keep grinding. Below 7132, the pullback engages. Our prime mid-range buy is 7154.75 with the Previous Weekly POC confluence; the sexy sweep play sits at 7069.50 with a 7080 reclaim trigger; and my absolute favorite is the 6961.75 / 6963.50 Weekly/Daily/Yearly POC stack — that is the swing trade I handed out for free this weekend. On VIX, 18.63 is the new line in the sand, and the 17.44 Monthly / 17.48 Daily gap fill is where I personally will be taking profits on my long index positions before the pullback arrives. Patience pays here. Let the pullback come to you, lean on the levels, and require reclaims for confirmation before sizing up.

One more time — read the weekend post, sign up for the webinar on April 30th at 6 PM EST at https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan, and grab the free SPX Edge AM Brief at https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-edge while it is still free. Bring your questions to the webinar. Share the swing-trade post with a friend. This is a unique alpha drop — take advantage.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

📊 TradingView Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7181.00|4HR|4H
7175.00|1HR|1H
7164.00|4HR|4H
7154.75|4HR|4H
7134.00|Tested D|TD
7132.50|4HR|4H
7132.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7070.00|P.W. VAH|GD
7069.50|4HR|4H
7022.00|D|D
7008.00|4HR|4H
7004.00|WK|W
6963.50|WK|W
6961.75|D|D
6883.00|WK|W
6875.00|Tested D|TD
6857.00|Tested MO|TM
6834.75|D|D

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What we got into this week:

This one’s an hour of pure unscripted market talk. No agenda, no script — just me and Todd “Bubba” Horwitz hitting record and letting it fly. Here’s what’s inside:

The week ahead, mapped out. I walked Bubba through the SPX and ES levels I’m watching live on the chart — the TWAP zones, the consolidation breakout shelf at 7141 for SPX, the deep support at 6850 — and we talked through where the smart buys are if this thing gives us the 2-4% pullback the data says is coming. If you trade the indices, this is the part to rewind.

Bubba’s Sunday Bitcoin tell. A simple read he uses every weekend to gauge how the S&P will open Monday. Green Bitcoin on Sunday afternoon = stable open. He’s been right more often than not.

Why this rally is a retail trap (and what it means). Bubba’s read on the volume — the big houses are sitting on their hands letting retail push this thing higher, and they’re waiting to swing the bat. We get into the inflation-versus-real-growth question and what’s actually driving prices to all-time highs.

The mental capital problem. I shared why I see a hypnotherapist for trading (yes, really), why I stopped scalping, and why I think every trader only has about three to four hours of laser focus in them per day. Bubba weighs in on why he gave up poker tournaments for the same reason.

Trade your opinion, lose your year’s salary. I told the story of how my opinions cost me a year’s pay in 2018, and Bubba talks Black Christmas and the client who fired his son for not selling the bottom. Lesson: trade the chart.

The decision NOT to trade is a trade. This is the whole game in one sentence. We dig into why setting daily P&L goals destroys traders, why the market isn’t going anywhere, and why patience is the single most underrated skill in this business.

Plus a wild Bubba war story — buying puts on a Friday afternoon, walking out flat, then a terrorist attack hits France after the close and he gets Schwab on the phone to exercise his way into a $4,000 win nobody thought was possible.

If you want a fly-on-the-wall hour with two veteran traders talking shop, this is it. Hit play.

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Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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Yesterday, it closed at 7165.08.

That’s +12.95% close-to-close in 18 trading sessions — and +13.48% measured from the March 30 intraday low to Friday’s high. Eight hundred and twenty-one points of pure thrust. If you’ve been trading this move, you already know what your inbox and Twitter feed look like right now: half the market is screaming “the top is in,” the other half is screaming “buy every dip into eternity.”

Here’s the deal — neither side has done the math.

So I did.

The Thesis: This Is One of the Rarest Rallies of the Modern Era. And History says it’s Almost Never the Top.

That’s the punchline. Now let me show you the work.

Just How Rare Is This Move?

Out of 8,114 rolling 18-session windows in the SPX since 1994, this one ranks #39. That puts it in the 99.53rd percentile — the top half of the top 1%.

When you strip out the overlapping windows and only count distinct, clustered rallies, the current move is the 13th of its kind in 32 years.

Think about that. In three decades of Fed cycles, dot-com bubbles, financial crises, COVID shocks, and everything in between, a thrust this size has happened roughly once every two and a half years. This isn’t normal market behavior. It’s elite-tail behavior.

And elite-tail moves don’t behave like normal moves.

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When This Has Happened Before

Here are the 8 closest historical analogs — rallies of roughly the same magnitude (+10.95% to +14.95% in 18 sessions) since 1994:

• Feb 28 → Mar 23, 2000: +13.30%

• Apr 4 → May 1, 2001: +14.79%

• Sep 21 → Oct 17, 2001: +11.52%

• Jul 10 → Aug 5, 2009: +14.06%

• Dec 24, 2018 → Jan 22, 2019: +11.99%

• May 13 → Jun 9, 2020: +13.73%

• Oct 30 → Nov 25, 2020: +11.00%

• Apr 21 → May 15, 2025: +14.71%

Look at that list. Every single one happened in a fundamentally interesting moment — the dot-com squeeze top, the post-9/11 recovery, the off-the-bear-market-low rip in 2009, the Christmas Eve 2018 V-bottom, two distinct 2020 COVID-era thrusts, and last year’s spring melt-up.

If we widen the criteria to “any rally at least as large as this one,” there have been 12 prior instances since 1994 — making the current rally #13 in the modern dataset.

The lesson from this list: violent upward thrusts of this magnitude tend to occur after something — a panic low, a policy pivot, a crisis resolution. They’re recovery moves, not blow-off tops. That distinction matters for what comes next.

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The Pullback Playbook

Here’s where the data gets tradable. For rallies of this magnitude, history shows a clear pattern over the next 5, 10, 20, and 40 trading days:

• Next 5d median return: -0.07%

• Next 10d median return: -0.98%

• Next 20d median return: +0.11%

• Next 40d median return: +3.84% (with a 75% win rate)

That looks flat-to-modestly-positive on the surface. But the path is what matters. Inside that 20-day window:

• 75% of cases saw a -2% pullback within 40 trading days, with the median pullback occurring around day 5-6.

• 37.5% of cases saw a -3% pullback.

• 37.5% of cases saw a -5% pullback.

In plain English: after a thrust this large, a tactical pullback in the 2% to 4% range is the base case, and it usually shows up within the next 1-2 weeks. Not because the bull trend is broken — because the rally is statistically stretched and momentum needs to reset before the next leg.

From the current SPX 7165 close, here’s what those pullback levels look like in real numbers:

• -2% = 7022

• -3% = 6950

• -4% = 6878

• -5% = 6807

• -6% = 6735

And here’s the level worth circling on your chart: the monthly TWAP sits at roughly 6896. That’s almost exactly the -3.75% pullback zone. If this rally rolls over tactically, the 6875-6900 area is the cleanest historical and momentum reset target.

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The Rebound Roadmap

This is the part most traders miss. They get the pullback call right, then panic-sell the bottom because they didn’t pre-plan the second leg.

Among the 8 closest analogs, 6 of 8 saw at least a -2% pullback within the first 20 trading days. And of those six pullbacks, all six rebounded at least +5% from the pullback low within 40 trading days. Six for six. Zero misses. The median time to hit that +5% rebound was just 4 trading days from the pullback low.

The full rebound profile from the pullback low:

• +6.07% median max rebound within 5 days

• +6.32% within 10 days

• +8.51% within 20 days

• +10.56% within 40 days

Now, “from the pullback low” requires hindsight — you don’t know the bottom in real time. So the more practical measurement is from the first -2% touch. Using that method:

• +4.32% median max rebound within 5 days

• +4.88% within 10 days

• +6.19% within 20 days

• +10.34% within 40 days

• A +5% rebound was hit in 83.3% of cases (5 of 6).

The one analog that broke the pattern was the March 2000 dot-com top — it bounced, but not cleanly enough before deeper weakness took over. The two analogs that never even produced a -2% pullback (early 2019 and November 2020) simply kept grinding higher with no shakeout at all.

So the historical script reads: massive thrust → tactical pullback → reboundable buy unless risk-off expands. The rebound, more often than not, lands in the +4% to +6% range, with the strongest analogs stretching to +8% to +10%.

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Putting the Map Together

Here’s the actionable level map. If SPX pulls back to one of these zones, here’s the historical +5% rebound target from each:

• 7022 (-2%) → +5% rebound = 7373

• 6950 (-3%) → +5% rebound = 7298

• 6878 (-4%) → +5% rebound = 7222

• 6807 (-5%) → +5% rebound = 7147

The best working map based on this dataset: a pullback into 6950-6880, followed by a rebound target of 7220-7300. If the pullback is shallower than that and the trend reasserts strongly, 7350-7440 becomes realistic.

That’s the historical script. That’s where the data points.

What Could Break the Script

History is a guide, not a guarantee, and one analog in this dataset matters more than the rest: the March 2000 dot-com squeeze. It looked exactly like the others on the way up. It fell apart on the way back. The difference was structural — the underlying trend was already broken; the rally was a final exhaustion thrust, not a recovery thrust.

The tell, in real time, is what happens at the pullback low. If SPX loses the 6800 area with VIX expanding, the playbook shifts from “buyable shakeout” to “weaker bear-market analog path.” That’s the line in the sand worth watching.

Until that happens — and history says it usually doesn’t — the base case is constructive.

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The Bottom Line

Pulling it all together:

• Short-term (next 3-8 sessions): Expect a tactical -2% to -4% pullback. Median timing puts the first leg of weakness in the next 1-2 weeks.

• Medium-term (next 4-8 weeks): History favors a rebound from the pullback low into the 7220-7375 zone, with 7440+ possible if the trend reasserts cleanly.

• The risk case: A loss of the 6800 area with expanding VIX flips the framework toward the weaker bear-market analog path. Watch that line.

This isn’t about predicting the exact tick. It’s about understanding the field of play. Out of 12 prior rallies of this magnitude, only one — March 2000 — failed to produce a clean rebound after the inevitable pullback. The other 11 went higher. That’s not a coin flip. That’s an edge.

Trade what’s in front of you. Respect the pullback. Don’t fade the rebound.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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We banked 130 Points Live on the stream come check out the highlights as we Conquer the Markets.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

Morning everyone. Today is Friday, April 24th, and a quick reminder: today is Free Alpha Friday. That means we are going to do a live stream from 9:15 AM all the way until noon on X, YouTube, and Substack — market commentary, hangout, and conquering the markets together. Don’t forget to attend for an example of the stream I do daily in the Discord room for Inner Circle members.

We come off another amazing day in the trade plan as we caught the long yesterday at 7145.00, which took us all the way up into our 7181.00 four-hour level — a 35-to-40 point long that paid extreme dividends for Substack subscribers. The even more beautiful part is that the 7181.00 four-hour was the exact high of the day, which ultimately took us down well over 100 points in the short — all the way to 7080.00. It was a glorious day for trade plan subscribers as lots of money was made and lots of happy people reported back. Congratulations to all who took advantage of this insane opportunity.

As we come into the morning, we must have had geopolitical news overnight as the market rallied well over 50 points and created a new all-time high in the Globex session at 7189.50, marking another new target for us to aim for in the cash session. As I have spoken many times, the cash session players do not like to leave all-time highs in Globex — we do not know when this area will get cleaned up, but we do know for a fact that the cash session will be gunning for this high at some point. Price is currently elevated above our 7165.00 level, however in the overnight session we accumulated sideways in the massive five-day range we have had over the past week.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We have Revised Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM after the open — not a Red Tag event, but it could still cause a potential shake. Set your alarms for this. Geopolitical headline risk remains — overnight news was responsible for the 50-point rally and new Globex all-time high.

• Volume: Relative Volume is spiked up at +48%. This could give us an increase in range — we could expect potentially 45 points above or below the overnight high or low.

• Range: Expected range of 81 points. We have already moved 54 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 30 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high or low. However, with the +48% relative volume spike, that effective range could expand to approximately 45 points above or below.

• Gamma: The Gamma flip level is at 7135.00. Dealers are continuing to roll the gamma flip level up, continuing to move the hedging to the upside. This gives us an indication of a massive area we need to hold — positive gamma structure continues.

• Trend: Pointed up. Even with extreme headline risk and volatility, we still have reason to believe we are pointed to the upside. The four-hour is still pointed up, the Daily is still pointed up, and the one-hour levels are still pointed to the upside. The bears have had multiple opportunities to dump this market well over 100 points each time and they still cannot lose support.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Globex All-Time High Target & The Five-Day Balance Continuation

Yesterday’s sweep below 7085.00 created a Failed Breakdown trigger that essentially allowed price to squeeze all the way to the all-time highs — an excellent buy that was provided in our trade plan. Even though we have had many pops and drops of over 100 points, we still have failed to lose support on the higher timeframe. As price is currently drifting to the upside, we have some serious levels to play for support today as we come into Friday.

We have continued to move sideways for a whole week, accepting value in this higher range. We pushed up for the past three weeks and have accepted value over the past week — this is very common and very standard for price progression. You make a massive move up, you push sideways, you accept value, you push higher again. The bears cannot lose support here, which is a huge indication that we will continue to move higher and that we need to look for our significant areas of support to play.

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