First things first, because this one trips people up.

The stock market is open on Election Day.

Regular hours, 9:30 to 4:00 ET. The NYSE’s 2026 calendar shows no closure and no early close on Tuesday, Nov. 3. SIFMA doesn’t recommend a bond market close either. ES runs its normal Globex session — the usual 5:00 to 6:00 p.m. ET halt, then straight through the night while the results come in.

The confusion has a real history behind it. The NYSE closed for every Election Day through 1968, then only in presidential election years from 1972 through 1980. That old holiday is why this study starts in 1970 — the first midterm with an Election Day session to measure.

In my last midterm post, I walked through the 21-for-21 November-to-June record and what you had to sit through to collect it. That’s an investor’s stat. If you’re flat by the close every day, an eight-month window doesn’t help you at 9:30 tomorrow.

So I pulled the four sessions that matter this week — the Monday before, Election Day, the Wednesday after and the Thursday after — for all 14 comparable midterms.

My read: the calendar has leaned bullish into the result, then gets less reliable coming out of it. Direction fades. Range grows.

The Scorecard

Every historical return and range in this post is the SPX cash index, not ES. Returns are close-to-close, from 1970 through 2022.

Look at Thursday. The mean says +0.41%. The median says the typical Thursday closed red. Keep that gap in your head — it comes back.

Here’s every election, so nothing is hiding behind an average.

Before You Call It an Edge

Here’s what nobody selling election-week alerts wants to say out loud: stocks go up on plenty of ordinary days too.

So we ran the same dates in 28 odd-numbered years, from 1971 through 2025, as a control.

Monday is mostly just a strong November Monday. Since 1990, midterm Mondays were green 8 of 9 — but odd-year Mondays were green 14 of 18, averaging +0.41%. You can’t credit the election with that.

Tuesday shows the widest gap: 10 of 14 against a 14-of-28 coin flip.

Wednesday barely clears its baseline: 10 of 14 against 19 of 28.

Thursday trails its baseline: 6 of 14 against 16 of 28.

Then there are the outliers. Remove 1982’s +3.91% and Wednesday’s mean drops from +0.38% to +0.11%. Remove 2022’s +5.54% and Thursday’s mean drops from +0.41% to +0.01% — with a −0.22% median and just 5 of 13 green.

And that 2022 Thursday wasn’t an election reaction. CPI hit at 8:30 that morning and SPX opened up 2.97%. The Fed also landed inside this window in 2002, 2010 and 2018.

That matters this year. The FOMC already held at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 and doesn’t meet again until December. CPI isn’t due until Nov. 10. The catalyst behind the biggest Thursday in the sample isn’t on this week’s calendar.

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Where We Walk In

This isn’t a sleepy tape. SPX closed Friday at 7,580.07, down 1.82% — its worst day since June and its third straight weekly loss, 3.05% off the Oct. 6 record close. Semis lost more than 15% in October as AI spending doubts hit tech. The 10-year sits near 4.93%, and two Fed voters dissented last week in favor of a hike.

VIX closed Friday at 19.42. The math: 19.42 ÷ √252 = 1.22%, or about 93 SPX points of implied one-day move.

I’ll scale the historical ranges below — cash session high to low, last nine midterms — to Friday’s close so you can see them in points. Those are for scale only — they are not levels and they are not forecasts. The sample includes much quieter markets than this one, so trust the ordering across sessions more than any point count.

The Playbook, Session by Session

Monday: Already on Your Screen

The most consistent session on the board, for reasons that have little to do with the vote. Mean range 1.19%, about 90 points.

ISM Manufacturing came at 10:00. Apple and Palantir report after the close, so Tuesday’s opening print carries both.

The job: mark Monday’s high and low. That’s your first map for a Tuesday that may not want to leave it.

Tuesday: The Narrow One

Green 10 of 14, median +0.56%. Over the last six elections with reliable opens, the cash session finished above its open 5 of 6 times, with an average gap of just +0.05%.

It’s also the narrowest session of the four: mean range 0.97%, median 0.77% — roughly 74 and 58 points. It reached a 1% range only 3 times in 9.

That makes sense. The first polls don’t close until after the cash session ends. You’re trading JOLTS at 10:00 and the Apple and Palantir reaction, not an election result.

The job: expect rotation until price proves otherwise. Take what’s there and don’t hold a good trade waiting for a 100-point day that history says usually doesn’t come. And if you’re flat at 4:00, you carry zero election risk and zero AMD risk into the night. That’s the whole advantage of being intraday — use it.

One warning. Someone on FinTwit is going to look at that narrow range and tell you to sell premium. A smaller range doesn’t establish an option-selling edge, and this study never tested one.

Wednesday: The Range Opens Up

Mean range 1.45%, median 1.49% — about 50% wider than Tuesday, roughly 110 points. It hit 1% or more in 7 of 9 elections.

Direction didn’t come with it. The mean close since 1990 is only +0.11%. The session has given us +3.91% in 1982 and +2.12% in 2018, but also −1.80% in 1990 and −2.08% in 2022. It finished green from the open 5 of 6 times — and 2022 lost 1.64% from open to close. The worst fall from the open to the low was 1.75%, about 133 points.

This year, you get the election results and AMD in the overnight, then ADP at 8:15 and ISM Services at 10:00.

The job: size for the range. If the range runs wider and your dollar risk stays the same, that means fewer contracts. Don’t trade the first headline, and don’t trade your politics. Wait for price to show you how it’s reacting at your level, then act on that.

Thursday: The Coin Flip

The widest session and the least reliable. Mean range 1.57%, about 119 points. Green just 6 of 14. The worst fall from open to low was 2.65%, about 201 points.

The +0.44% average gap looks friendly until you see that 2022’s single 2.97% gap is bigger than the entire six-election total. Since 1990, Thursday’s mean is +0.72% on 5 of 9 green — and that’s 2022 doing the heavy lifting again.

One more thing from my own count of the table, with no control group behind it, so hold it loosely: Thursday closed in the opposite direction of Wednesday in 10 of 14 elections. After a green Wednesday, Thursday was green only 3 of 10 times. The +3.91% in 1982 and the +2.12% in 2018 both got a red Thursday.

The calendar: Bank of England at 7:00, jobless claims and productivity at 8:30, and the October jobs report sitting there at 8:30 Friday morning. FactSet consensus is around 55,000 jobs, with unemployment at 4.2%.

The job: don’t carry Wednesday’s bias into Thursday’s open. Treat “post-election rally” as a question for price to answer. And respect what Friday morning can do to anything you’re still holding.

Don’t Chase the Result

This is the stat I’d put on a sticky note.

From the Friday close through the Thursday close, SPX was positive 12 of 14 times, with a +1.66% mean, a +1.02% median and a worst of −1.83%. The same dates in odd years: 17 of 28, +0.43% mean. This year, that window opened at Friday’s 7,580.07 close, so it’s already running.

Now start later. Buy Tuesday’s close — the last cash print before the polls close — and hold to Thursday: positive just 8 of 14. Wait until the result is in, buy Wednesday’s close, and all you’ve bought is Thursday’s session: 6 of 14.

The four-session record doesn’t transfer to a late entry. The Tuesday-close window does show a +0.78% mean, but 2022 and 1982 supply about 60% of it. If you wake up Wednesday feeling like you missed something, this is the number to look at before you press a button.

The Honest Part

This is 14 elections — not 56 independent data points. Rough 95% confidence ranges on those win rates run from 52% to 92% for Monday and 45% to 88% for Tuesday and Wednesday. Bootstrapped ranges on the mean return cross zero for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

We tested a lot of cuts on a small sample, across completely different market regimes. Pre-1990 rows come from a separately labeled Yahoo supplement, while 1990 onward uses our canonical prices. The open-versus-close numbers only cover six elections, 2002 through 2022. Nothing here includes costs, slippage, stops, option premiums or position sizing. SPX is a calculated index, so your ES or SPY fills will differ, and overnight moves aren’t in those cash ranges.

There’s a real case on both sides, too. Bulls have 12 of 14 on the window and the seasonal tailwind from my last post. Bears have the semis, a 10-year near 4.93%, and a Fed with two votes to hike.

Use this as a calendar prior for what to expect and how much range to plan for. It is not an entry signal.

Where This Stops and the Plan Starts

History gives you the shape of the week. It can’t tell you where to lean on Wednesday morning after election results, AMD and ADP all hit before the 10:00 print.

That’s the part you can’t get from a study. If you’re trading this week, you need the levels and the scenarios in front of you before the open, and that’s what S&P Edge is built for — the daily trade plan, our full indicator suite, the live trading room and the Discord. This is the week to be inside it: CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P EDGE

And if you’re more of a macro person who wants the big picture without an intraday plan, at the very least get the SPX Morning Brief. It’s free, so there’s no reason to walk into this week blind: CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE SPX MORNING BRIEF

Investors can afford to be patient through a November like this one. Day traders need a plan by 9:30.

Direction fades. Range grows. Size for the range and let price do the deciding.

🎙️ S&P Edge Post Market Breakdown streams at 5pm EST Mon–Thu on X, YouTube, and Substack. CLICK HERE FOR THE SOCIAL LINKS

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

While other gurus were pointing for all-time highs, our process played true, our conviction held, and we hit our target only to get the liquidity we deserved. So far, we are on track to play this week exactly as planned. We came down, we wicked the lows, we hit our target perfectly, and we played some support — popping almost 75 points off the lows into Friday’s close. Now what happens? We could potentially squeeze a little bit, only to come back up and get smacked again. As usual, we’re going to do VIX, SPX, and ES, so let’s get right into it and get the week started right.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News:

  

• Range: We came down well over 250 points from the leg end into the 7575.00 sweep, then popped almost 75 points off the lows into the close. VIX closed up well over 20% on Friday. The ranges are serious — and so is the opportunity.

• Value: Two overlapping weeks sit right on top of each other — massive overlapping value, including the value area low. The two-month composite value area low at 7674.00 lines up with our massive Weekly at 7673.50, with a small gap sitting right there and massive volume on both sides. The previous weekly value area low at 7701.00 is the bull/bear trigger to take us higher.

• Inefficiencies: Excess on the weekly profile, left over from the massive move up, still needs to be cleaned up all the way down to 7547.00 — they nearly got it Friday. On SPX, there is still liquidity to sweep down in the 7464 pocket.

• Trend: Still pointed down on all timeframes. We have not gained on any timeframe, and we have no reason to believe they can’t continue lower. A squeeze is imminent after Friday’s massive selling — but they are setting us up for more down.

🧠 Current Market Context

The 7575 Sweep & The Setup for More Down

We have not gained on any timeframe, and we are still pointed down on all of them. We saw the exact same thing happen last week: they came down, swept the lows, and squeezed all the way to the highest untested at the leg end — only to get smacked once again. I truly believe that same play is certainly possible right now, given the state of the charts. Why? Because we still have not gained on any timeframe. Friday’s big push down left us in a position to sweep the lows and potentially pop, but once again, they are just setting us up for more down. We’ll keep an eye on VIX to see whether that plays out with VIX staying above 17.50.

Make no mistake — I am clearly not done with this downside move. The 7575.00 area was just our first target. However, I do believe a squeeze is imminent. We are due for a pop back up after the massive selling on Friday, and ultimately we could retrace up just to get smacked again. That is certainly the setup they have given us right now.

Here’s something interesting on SPX. We cleared the Weekly leg on ES, taking us well below it — but SPX does not give us the same image. In my opinion, that means SPX can still come down farther, as we really need to sweep that liquidity and get back down into the 7464 pocket. Ultimately, I think that is where we can come at some point. As we talked about, the SPX Daily at 7551 was not my favorite.

SPX: The 7623 Pivot & The 7582 Floor

This is going to be very simple and very clear. On the way up, the first big spot is the 7582 Weekly/Monthly pivot — this has been a very significant Monthly for us time and time again, and it is our above/below on the lower side. If they push up through it, we have the big Weekly at 7611 and the Daily at 7623. Look at the daily timeframe and you can see why this Weekly is so important: not once, not twice, not three times, but four times this level has played from the bottom side — telling us this will be massive. This zone played Friday for the short, and that is exactly what we played in the Inner Circle for the move down. 7623 is my obvious favorite and our huge pivot for above or below to change momentum — but you definitely can’t ignore the 7611 Weekly given how many times it has played.

If we want to continue our progression down immediately, we really need to stay below 7623 and 7611. Push above, and this is a massive momentum shift: we can easily come into the double Daily at 7659, which is located with a 4-Hour, and ultimately up into our final huge area of untested resistance as price gets back inside this leg and rotates higher. 7623 above/below on top, 7582 above/below underneath — that’s the SPX map.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 18.90 Line & The 17.44 Bull/Bear Pocket

As promised, we start with VIX. This thing was on an absolute tear Friday when the market sold off, closing up well over 20% on the day. We have seen this happen multiple times before, and when VIX closes up 20% on a Friday, there is a very strong possibility — well over a 70% chance — of a rebound in price the next day, or even within the next 48 hours. We certainly believe that is possible here.

We have talked about the 16 handle providing massive support, and getting above our 17.44 Monthly was the big bullish trigger for VIX. Then they settled above 18.19 Friday morning for the gap up, squeezing VIX well into our massive area. They wicked the 23.43 Weekly high, only to come right back down — a massive pop-up that settled almost right back where it started the day. As we’ve said many times before, as long as VIX is above 17.44, we are inherently bearish on the indices — and below it, bullish. VIX is coming back down into support, and we need to look at it in two specific ways.

The Untested Overhead: 23.43 – 25.25

We still have the untested spot around 24.70 to 25.25 sitting overhead. VIX wicked the 23.43 Weekly high and came back down, so that untested pocket has not been touched. A push back up toward it would be a massive headwind for the indices.

The Bears’ Line: 18.19 – 18.90

18.90 is our first untested support. If the Bears want to get their stuff together, they need VIX to hold this level for the indices to continue to come down. If not — if VIX drifts below 18.19 — we come down into our fat pocket.

The Fat Pocket: 16.91 – 17.44

This is the huge pocket of support we’re going to look to play. It starts in the 17 handle with our 17.44 Monthly — this Monthly is tested, but given its significance, I do feel it can provide a reaction. Our last stand is the Daily at 16.91 that was created on the move up. This pocket is where VIX makes the decision whether to continue higher or ultimately traverse lower.

The Relief Scenario: Below 17.44

If VIX traverses lower through the pocket and below 17.44, we flip inherently bullish on the indices — sending them back up to potentially test what we lost on Friday’s massive move down. Quite an interesting spot that VIX is in.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are pointed down on all timeframes and have not gained on any of them. Our momentum shift pivot is the 7621.00 Daily / 7622.50 Weekly — right where we are sitting now. Above it, we should easily squeeze into 7644.50 or higher, with a lot of untested resistance stacked overhead and a reaction coming from each level. To get this thing moving back to the downside, I want to see us stay below 7670.75, and as long as we are below the 7674.00 two-month composite value area low, I lean massively to the downside. Above 7697.00 we need to be concerned, and the 7701.00 previous weekly value area low is the bull/bear trigger to take us higher.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Momentum Shift Pivot: 7621.00 – 7622.50

7622.50 (Weekly), 7621.00 (Daily).

• Context: This is our big Weekly/Daily momentum shift pivot, and we are sitting right on it. Friday’s pop off the 7561.00 4-Hour took us right back up into this area. There is a lot of untested resistance coming all the way up from here, and we could absolutely squeeze.

• Actionable Setup: If we get above this pivot, we should easily squeeze into the 7644.50 area or even potentially higher. Below it, the downside lean stays in control.

• Warning: Pointed down on all timeframes or not, a push above this pivot puts the squeeze in play — respect it.

The 100-Day MA Alignment: 7644.50

7644.50 (Daily / 4-Hour), with the 100-day moving average sitting right in between our levels.

• Context: This Daily aligns with that first 4-Hour — a great spot for a potential reaction, and I absolutely love it. Right in between our levels sits the 100-day moving average, a high-timeframe moving average that other big players will be looking at. All these touches from the bottom side make this area extremely important.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Watch for a reaction here on the squeeze. I do see a reaction coming from each one of these levels — which one is going to be the one that sends us down is hard to say.

The Clean Double: 7661.00

7661.00 (Daily / 4-Hour).

• Context: The Daily at 7661.00 aligns perfectly with the 4-Hour at 7661.00. I don’t think that could get any cleaner. This is where the serious resistance begins — running from 7661.00 up through the 7670s and ultimately into 7689.50.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Another prime reaction spot on the way up. Look for the smack.

The Massive Weekly & Composite VAL: 7670.75 – 7674.00

7674.00 (Two-Month Composite Value Area Low), 7673.50 (Weekly), 7670.75 (Daily).

• Context: The two-month composite value area low we used as our guide last week proved very well for where the momentum shifts. Two overlapping weeks sit right on top of each other — massive overlapping values, including the value area low. There is a small gap directly at this level with massive volume on both sides, and the little gap fill comes all the way up into it. It lines up with our massive Weekly at 7673.50 and the Daily at 7670.75. This is the big spot we need to pay attention to.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: We want to stay below this to continue our downside momentum. I really want to see us stay below 7670.75 to get this thing moving back to the downside — and as long as we are below 7674.00, I continue to lean massively to the downside.

The Highest Resistance & The Bull/Bear Trigger: 7689.50 – 7701.00

7701.00 (Previous Weekly VAL / Bull-Bear Trigger), 7697.00 (Momentum Concern Line), 7689.50 (Resistance — Missed Friday).

• Context: 7689.50 is the level I was looking to get played on Friday that they missed. On a squeeze, we could come all the way up to 7689.50 and 7697.00 — and as you guys know, they always seem to squeeze into the highest. Let’s just hope that doesn’t happen. The previous weekly value area low at 7701.00 is our bull/bear trigger to take us higher.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If they squeeze us all the way up here, watch for the reaction. We really want to maintain below 7697.00 and ultimately below 7670.75 to continue this downside progression.

• Warning: Above 7697.00, we need to start being concerned about momentum. That does not mean they are not still pointed down on all timeframes, but we know what squeezes look like. Above 7697.00 and the 7701.00 trigger, we start to find ourselves in some trouble and could potentially squeeze much higher.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Swept Target & 4-Hour Launch Pad: 7561.00 – 7575.00

7575.00 (Weekly Target — Hit & Swept), 7561.00 (Tested 4-Hour).

• Context: Look at the way they came down and swept 7575.00, our big target, and played our 4-Hour level to the left with absolute precision. This was a massive pivot where the move turned — we figured there was some volume there and we’d get a reaction, especially after sweeping our massive Weekly target. The pop off 7561.00 paid well over 60 points right back into the 7622.50 Weekly.

• Actionable Setup: 7575.00 was just our first target. Watch this area on any retrace — below it, the excess cleanup is next.

The Excess Cleanup: 7547.00 – 7553.25

7553.25 (Tested Daily), 7547.00 (Weekly Profile Excess).

• Context: I still have excess in the profile — left over from the massive move up — that needs to get cleaned up, all the way down to 7547.00. They nearly got it Friday. Very, very close. The Daily at 7553.25 is very much tested now.

• Actionable Setup: Close is only good in horseshoes and hand grenades. For us, we are looking for the touch and the cleanup — this is our lower target, and I do think it gets cleaned up at some point.

The Thick Support Pocket: 7507.75 – 7519.25

7519.25 (4-Hour), 7507.75 (First Major Support).

• Context: This is the spot we have been focusing on since last week or two weeks ago — if we come down and sweep that low, where do we find support? 7507.75 is the first spot I’ll be looking at, with the 4-Hour at 7519.25 just above. This area is thick with support and I like it quite a bit.

• Actionable Setup: Look for a reaction somewhere in here that could provide us some serious liquidity.

The Untested Island VAH: 7483.00

7483.00 (4-Hour / Untested Weekly Value Area High).

• Context: This 4-Hour lines up beautifully with a Weekly value area high that is absolutely untested. For those of you familiar with profile terms, this is an island — and this is the value area high on the island side.

• Actionable Setup: Between this spot and the 7507.75 – 7519.25 pocket, I do truly believe we get a reaction that could provide us some serious liquidity.

The Naked Weekly POC: 7413.00

7413.00 (Untested Weekly / Untested Value Area Low / Naked Weekly POC).

• Context: If they push below the island, we have an untested Weekly at 7413.00 that also aligns with an untested value area low and a naked Weekly POC.

• Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: This would be a beautiful spot to sweep the low, play this Weekly, and get back above it — only to push much higher.

The Final Confluence: 7368.00 – 7380.00

7380.00 (Daily / 4-Hour), 7368.00 (Daily / 4-Hour).

• Context: If they move lower than that, these are my last two spots. They are aligned with two Dailies and two 4-Hours.

• Actionable Setup: First-Touch Reaction: This confluence should give us the confidence to play these areas on first touch.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

Last week was crazy, and it was tough — they squeezed us all the way up until FOMC only to distribute sideways and puke it on Friday. But our process played true and our conviction paid. If that wasn’t a beautiful display of trade plan perfection, I don’t know what is. Coming into this week, we are still pointed down on all timeframes, we have not gained on any of them, and 7575.00 was just our first target. A squeeze is imminent — but they are setting us up for more down. Your make-or-break levels are the 7621.00 – 7622.50 momentum shift pivot, the 7670.75 – 7674.00 line we want to stay below, and 7697.00 – 7701.00, where we start to find ourselves in trouble. On SPX, it’s 7623 above/below on top and 7582 underneath. And keep your eyes on VIX: 18.90 is the Bears’ line, and as long as VIX is above 17.44, we stay inherently bearish on the indices. Be patient and let the levels play and prove themselves before you engage.

Make sure you strap in and enjoy the ride — it is going to be a volatile week, and I’m looking forward to making some points. I’ll see you all Monday in the Inner Circle and Tuesday for the trade plan, and next week, you already know — we’re going to conquer the market. Cheers, and have a great rest of your weekend.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7701.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7673.50|WK|W
7670.75|D|D
7661.00|D|D
7644.50|D|D
7622.50|WK|W
7621.00|D|D
7561.00|Tested 4HR|T4
7553.25|Tested D|TD
7519.25|4HR|4H
7483.00|4HR|4H
7413.00|WK|W
7380.00|D|D
7368.00|D|D

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, October 30th — the last day of the month — and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. Yesterday, the prophecy was finally foretold. We have been talking about being bearish since last Sunday, and Team Vici members maintained their bearish stance all week, knowing that we had not gained on any timeframe. The FOMC announcement caused us to pop up and play our highest untested level, only to keep price from gaining on the S&P 500 — giving us the premonition that we were coming down, against all odds and against everyone betting against us. Once again, our process rings true and has shown unbelievable results for our trade plan subscribers.

As we come into the morning, we are down 88 points at the time of this writing. The market has fallen extremely hard after massive earnings news yesterday, where the big tech companies all missed on their reports. This was easily seen in the charts, as the S&P 500 was indicating that we would eventually come down and make new lows from last Friday underneath 7644.50, ultimately still looking for our big major target below 7575.00. This was talked about well over a week ago, and after the massive 200-point squeeze, everyone told us we were wrong. Yet we continued to maintain our discipline as our process continued to point us in the right direction, and once again, as we wake up, we were proven right. Congratulations to all those who stuck with the trade plan and with me and defied all odds, only to have the results work out once again. This is indeed trade plan perfection, as we have all seen many times now. Price has continued to traverse lower all night as we are still seeking new lows underneath Friday’s low, ultimately targeting 7644.50.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of, but we do have the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. pre-market. This is not a Red Tag news event, but it is a news event indeed, and given that we are still pointed down on all timeframes, it could give us a little volatility and increase the follow-through to make our new leg lows.

• Volume: Relative Volume is 15%] at the time of this writing.

• Range: Expected range of 73 Points today. We are already down 88 points at the time of this writing, as price has continued to traverse lower all night. We are down 49 Points in our total range calculation leaving us 24 points left for the day above or below the overnight highs or lows

• Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma this morning, as our gamma flip level has moved all the way down to 7744.00. This means the dealers are pressing their positions lower, expanding volatility, giving us increased ranges, and hedging their positions to the downside. The closer the gamma strike gets to our current location, the stronger the will becomes for the market makers to keep price suppressed.

• Trend: Down. We are still down on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes, all still pointed much lower. We are still looking for new lows underneath Friday’s low, targeting the Daily at 7644.50 and ultimately our high-timeframe target below 7575.00, given well over a week in advance.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Leg-to-Leg Progression Plays True

We have talked multiple times about how this pop all the way higher was simply a natural progression as we go from one leg into the other. As everyone can now see, this is exactly what happens as our process plays true. As we hold the lows in the overnight session, we are right back to where we started on Monday, and price continues to point to the downside. We have massive resistance overhead that we’ll be looking to play for progression to the downside.

It is a glorious day for ES and a glorious day for Team Vici. Many, including members of our inner circle, could not wrap their heads around yesterday’s price action and believed we could end up squeezing higher into the election. Once again, our process proves true. I’ve tried to maintain the discipline here and let everybody know that without a gain, we only have one choice, and that is to make new lows. Not to brag or toot my own horn, but I gotta say: I told you so. I love to see everything play out perfectly, which it currently is. As we sit at the lows at 7661.25, we are holding this last major support area, the last lowest untested 1-Hour we talked about at 7663.25. This area is holding currently, but in my opinion, we will ultimately break.

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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, October 29th, and we come off another wild day in the trade plan, as it played to perfection even with the FOMC volatility. SPX held our highest, most untested leg at 7757, and ES popped all the way up to play the 7821.75 Daily, only to fail to gain the highs. On both the 4-Hour and the 1-Hour, after all of this massive squeeze up, we have still yet to see any type of support gained by the bulls.

Yesterday was a beautiful example of the process. We maintained our long-term bearish stance, but we knew that if VIX stayed underneath 17.44, we could continue to push higher — and that is exactly what happened, as we held our 7753.50 Daily, which continued to push us to the upside. However, we continued to play our shorts at the 7785.00 4-Hour and the Daily at 7791.00, and they continued to pay until, at the end of the day, price popped all the way up, swept the liquidity above our 7803.00 Weekly area, and grabbed the Daily at 7821.75 — only to come down hard at the close and fail to gain, just as the plan foretold. It was a glorious day for trade plan subscribers who remained patient through this massive squeeze up.

As we sit in the morning session, we find ourselves balancing sideways after yesterday’s failure to gain support, and we continue to bump our head on the 7772.75 Weekly. This has been a massive pivot for us and will continue to be so today, as it is also located directly with the overnight high and yesterday’s point of control. We’re going to use it as a significant above/below pivot today, as downside momentum will continue to increase as long as we stay below it. We are continuing to slide to the downside, down 37 points at the time of this writing.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: We come into the morning with Red Tag news. At 8:30 a.m., we’ve got Advance GDP q/q, the Core PCE Price Index, and Unemployment Claims, all lined up pre-market. This is sure to be a big day, so please be careful. There is also a lot of geopolitical talk with Iran as we come into the midterm elections, which is also sure to cause some volatility.

• Volume: We have increased Relative Volume of approximately 15%. Using our relative calculation, that means we could move approximately 46.75 points above or below the overnight highs or lows today.

• Range: Expected range of 74.5 points. We have currently moved 33.75 points, leaving us approximately 40.75 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows — closer to 46.75 points with relative volume factored in. Pay attention for extreme volatility today, as this is a post-FOMC day and we could see a massive move.

• Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma volatility, and we are using two calculations this morning. Our old gamma flip calculation puts the flip at 7840.00, which is right by massive resistance. Our current and new calculation puts it at 7795.00, which lines up perfectly with our massive Daily leg-end high at 7791.00 and the big Weekly bull/bear pivot at 7803.00. In my opinion, this is an excellent calculation and gives us a true ceiling to work with this morning — keep an eye on the gamma flip at 7795.00. Dealers are hedging to the downside, which can open up increased ranges and massive volatility.

• Trend: Down. The Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour are all pointed to the downside, telling us that we remain bearish as long as we continue to stay below our significant pivots.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Failure to Gain at the Highs

ES finds itself in a serious situation this morning. We wicked the highs above 7803.00, taking out two highs and last week’s high, grabbed the liquidity, and played the Daily we called out at 7821.75. This was a huge Daily, and ultimately it made it so that we failed to gain on the Daily timeframe at yesterday’s close. After pushing up for well more than four days, buyers had an opportunity to close well above support and failed to do so. That means we still have some weakness in this market, and we are going to maintain our bearish stance for the time being. We have a very clear and very defined layout here of exactly where things shift and where everything goes wrong, and we have one beautiful level that we will be concentrated on today.

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Here’s what the data says instead: since 1942, the S&P 500 has finished higher in the November-through-June window around every single midterm election.

21 for 21.

That stat gets passed around every cycle. What gets left out is how several of those 21 wins actually played out. Some of them dropped double digits first — enough to shake out anyone who panicked.

The midterm record doesn’t say stocks go straight up. It says that for 80 years, the dip inside this window has been the opportunity — not the exit.

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The 21-for-21 Record

First, the exact rule, because precision matters here. Enter at the last trading close of October in each midterm year. Exit at the last trading close of June the following year. That’s an eight-month window — and in most years, the entry actually lands a few days before Election Day.

Every return below is the SPX cash index, nominal (not adjusted for inflation) and price-only. No dividends, no fees, no taxes. The label “1942” means October 1942 through June 1943, and so on down the table.

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A dash means the index never closed below entry in that window.

Across all 21 windows, the average return was +16.55% and the median was +14.94%. The weakest finish was +2.23% in 2014–15. The strongest was +31.94% in 1942–43.

The record also cuts cleanly across party lines. Eleven of those midterms came under Democratic presidents and ten under Republican presidents. Every one of them finished the window higher.

Now the question every skeptic should ask: isn’t this just stocks going up? Equities tend to rise over most eight-month stretches anyway.

So here’s the same November–June season, comparing midterm years against every other year:

On VICI’s own 1990-onward data, midterm windows averaged 6.82 percentage points more than every other year in the same season. The non-midterm years in that span included a −17.81% loser. The midterm group’s worst was still positive.

That gap is the real edge in this study — not the raw return. Stocks grind higher in most eight-month windows. Midterm windows have done it more consistently and by more. It’s a record of what happened, not proof the election causes it. But 80 years is a long time to stay consistent.

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The Dips Inside the Wins

Here’s the part that rarely makes the headline. A positive June close tells you nothing about what you had to sit through to get there.

Two measures matter, and they’re not the same thing. Loss versus entry is how far the worst close fell below your original entry price. Peak-to-trough drawdown is the biggest drop from any closing high inside the window to a later closing low — and it can be bigger, because it counts gains you’d already made and then gave back. A third measure, the intraday low, is only reliable in the 1990–2022 data, so I keep it separate.

Across all 21 windows, on closing prices, 17 closed below entry at some point. Five closed 5% or more below entry. Two — 1974 and 2018 — closed 10% or more below. Four suffered closing peak-to-trough drawdowns of 10% or more: 1946, 1974, 2002 and 2018.

Not every window dipped first. 1954, 1962, 1990 and 1998 never closed below entry at all. But most did — and in every one of those 17, the dip ended up being a better price than where the window finished in June.

Now think about that. Since 1942, selling a close below entry has never once beaten holding this window to June.

2018: The Christmas Eve Test

If you want one window that shows both sides of this trade, it’s 2018.

Entry was the Oct. 31, 2018 close at 2,711.74. The index pushed to a closing high of 2,813.89 a week later on Nov. 7 — then rolled over. It closed below entry for the first time on Nov. 14.

The bottom came on Christmas Eve. The Dec. 24 close of 2,351.10 sat 13.30% below entry and 16.45% below the November high. The lowest intraday print came two days later — 2,346.58 on Dec. 26, or 13.47% below entry.

Now picture three traders.

The one who panicked at the lows locked in a loss of about 13%.

The one who sat still watched the index close back above entry on Feb. 4, 2019 — 42 calendar days after the low — reclaim the November high on March 15, and finish the window at 2,941.76 on June 28, 2019. Final return: +8.48%.

The one who bought the dip anywhere below 2,711.74 got a better price than the original entry — and every one of those prices sat below where the window finished.

That’s the whole thesis in one window. Patience paid. Panic didn’t.

2002 and 1974: Same Lesson, Different Paths

2002 shows why the measuring stick matters. Entry was 885.76 on Oct. 31, 2002. The worst close came on March 11, 2003 at 800.73 — 9.60% below entry. The intraday low the next day hit 788.90, or 10.94% below. Measured from the Nov. 27, 2002 closing high of 938.87, the closing drawdown was 14.71%.

One window. Three different “drawdown” numbers, depending on which one you quote. That’s why, in the 1990–2022 data, only 1 of 9 windows closed 10% below entry — but 2 of 9 touched that level intraday. The 2002 window closed back above entry by March 21 and finished +10.02%.

1974 went deeper on a closing basis: 12.03% below entry by Dec. 6, 1974. It took 52 calendar days to close back above entry — and the window finished +28.81%.

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The Fine Print

The election-anniversary version. Measured from the Election Day close to the same date one year later, the record is 19 for 19 since 1950, averaging +15.11% (median +14.49%). Don’t stack it on top of the 21-for-21 — it’s the same midterms and overlapping months measured with a different ruler, not a second confirmation. It has its own scars, too: the 1986 window finished +1.12% after a 33.24% closing drawdown through the October 1987 crash.

The streak has edges. Run the same November–June rule back before 1942 and it lost 12.46% in 1930–31 and 17.54% in 1938–39 — 22 of 24 across all available midterms, not perfect. Shift the entry to the end of November and it’s 20 of 21, with 2014–15 slipping about 0.22%. The following full calendar year is 17 of 19, with 2011 essentially flat and 2015 down 0.73%. Different rules, different records.

The data. 1990 onward comes from VICI’s canonical daily SPX series (First Rate and EODHD). The 1942–1986 windows use a separately labeled Yahoo Finance historical supplement, and the 1942–1954 windows predate the S&P 500’s March 1957 launch, so those are back-tested index history. Early records carry closing prices only, which is why every intraday number here stays inside 1990–2022. And 21 observations is still a small sample — the standard statistical range for a 21-for-21 record (a 95% Wilson interval) runs from roughly 84.5% to 100%, before accounting for how the window was chosen. This is history, not a probability.

What This Means for S&P Traders

Here’s how I’d use this — not as a trade signal, but as a macro reminder to be patient.

If the next few months bring a sharp pullback, the historical lesson is clear: inside this window, the dip has been the opportunity, not the exit. But the cost of admission is real, so a few rules.

Size for the path, not the endpoint. A 2018-style decline of 13% to 16% is uncomfortable in a cash account. On a leveraged ES position, it can force you out long before June. Buying the dip only works if you can survive the dip.

Match the timeframe. This is an eight-month, price-only index study. It’s a backdrop for your bias, not a day-trading, futures or options edge. An option can lose money even when the index finishes the window higher — in 2018, the index didn’t close back above entry for 42 days after the December low.

Don’t treat history as a ceiling. Past drawdowns aren’t a maximum. The next one can be bigger.

For this cycle, the window opens with the Oct. 30, 2026 close and runs through the June 30, 2027 close.

This is exactly how we work inside S&P Edge — the macro picture sets the bias, and the daily trade plan handles the levels and the execution. If you’re trading the S&P and want that every session, [S&P EDGE LINK]. And if you just want the macro side, our SPX Morning Brief is free: [SPX MORNING BRIEF LINK].

Whoever won, the window finished higher — 21 times out of 21.

Be patient. Respect the dip. And never bet against America — no matter which party wins.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, October 28th, and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan. As we have talked about for days, even though we are pointed down on all timeframes, we could possibly squeeze — and squeeze indeed we have for the past two days, pushing all the way into our big 7772.75 Weekly. As of right now, this is a massive above/below line for us. This Weekly has proven time and time again to be of significance, including getting reactions from it two times in the cash session yesterday towards the end of the day, only to be rejected once again in the overnight session. This level will be massive for us in terms of marking momentum this morning, and we will keep a heavy eye not only on the upside pivot but on our significant level at 7753.50, which is directly below us.

The overnight session has been extremely coiled and very tight, as we continue to hold above the 7753.50 Daily but below our 7772.75 Weekly, keeping us bottled up. This is not abnormal, as the market will generally sit in balance as we wait for the Fed announcement — and today is FOMC.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No pre-market Red Tag news, but we do have FOMC today at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the FOMC press conference and Fed speak at 2:30 p.m. ET. This is a very volatile event and is indeed what the market has been waiting for all week. I would highly recommend everyone try to get a trade or two in before FOMC and then walk away from this event, as this is usually a very erratic and unconventional time to trade — the market can whip in various directions depending on what the Fed chairman has to say. We also have a lot of geopolitical news on the front: President Trump stating that the war is over just in time for the election, Iran wanting to make a deal, and a deal with Venezuela to bring in over a million barrels of oil to reduce the price at the pump, which obviously would reduce inflation and cause the market to rise.

• Volume: Relative Volume is approximately -35%. However, this is a moot point in my opinion. I would normally use relative volume as a calculation to understand our potential range, but with FOMC today, it is not surprising that negative relative volume is upon us — nobody is interested in trading this until the FOMC announcement has taken place.

• Range: Expected range of 78.5 points. We have already moved 21.75 points, leaving us approximately 56.75 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. That means we have plenty of room to move today as we wind up for this FOMC volatility. However, ranges coming into FOMC could be relatively muted, so we need to be very careful about what we play coming into the announcement.

• Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, as our gamma flip level is still well above us, close to the all-time highs around 7850.00. Dealers are still hedging to the downside, and we need to expect possible increased ranges, especially with today’s news. The negative gamma could actually amplify this and give us much more than we’re bargaining for, so we must be careful — this is a big deal coming into this news event.

• Trend: Down. We are still down on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. However, we have talked about this squeeze happening for a bullish move that could take us all the way into our 7753.50 level, which was seen yesterday, and into the 7772.75 Weekly, which was the high.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Squeeze Into the Leg-End High

This should come as no surprise to anyone, as this was something we discussed not only on Sunday in the weekend review but once again on Monday in the post-market breakdown. We opened outside of the previous week’s value, spent two or more periods back inside it, and held inside that previous week’s value — so it is no surprise that we have rotated all the way back up to the top side of the leg that was made on this massive move down. As we continue to press higher this morning in this massive squeeze fashion, we have significant resistance not only directly above us, but also one major level of untested resistance above us that will be the true make it or break it for these bulls. They have had a very prominent squeeze as they’ve retraced this leg down, and now they find themselves in a huge position: either push through this massive untested area, or get smacked and potentially make new lows.

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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, October 27th, and we come off another insane day in the trade plan. We called the morning short, and I said a squeeze was a real possibility over the Previous Weekly Value Area Low and the Daily at 7697.00 — and that is exactly what happened. After price reclaimed, we squeezed substantially, up another 45 points, taking us right into the big 50-day moving average target we had at 7736.00. That level played phenomenally as well. Congratulations once again to all of our trade plan subscribers who took advantage.

As we come into the day, we are still riding the momentum of this squeeze. ES squeezed once again in the overnight session, and lo and behold, it played the exact setup I laid out in yesterday’s post-market breakdown: price swept the lows at 4 o’clock this morning, played our 7701.00 4-Hour, and squeezed right back up as we approach our 7745.50 level. Unfortunately for us, they did it in the overnight session and wiped out all the supports to the lower side in the process. We are up 28 points at the time of this writing, and with every timeframe still pointed down, we are still looking for shorts.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. Consumer Confidence hits at 10:00 a.m. after the open — not a Red Tag event, but it could give us some volatility, so keep an eye on that time. We also have geopolitical headlines on the front, with Iran saying it is looking for a meeting to satisfy conditions to end the war, which could add volatility. And with FOMC tomorrow, this market will more than likely spend today digesting as we wait for the next Fed rate announcement.

• Volume: Relative Volume is up about 17% at the time of this writing. Using our relative calculation, we could approximately get an additional 48 points above or below the overnight highs or lows out of today’s range.

• Range: Expected range of 84 points. We have only moved 43.5 points this morning, leaving approximately 41.5 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows — closer to 48 points with relative volume factored in. Our ranges have been expanding as we’ve come through October, so look for volatility today.

• Gamma: Our gamma shift level still resides at 7850.00, very close to the all-time highs. We remain in Negative Gamma territory — dealers are positioning themselves and hedging to the downside. That gives us increased ranges and volatility, but it also means we can make money in both directions as usual.

• Trend: Down. The Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes are all still very much pointing us to the downside. However, since we have charted above the Previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7698.00, there is a possibility to rotate back into the major Previous Weekly Point of Control around 7749.00, or potentially higher.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Squeeze Inside the Downtrend

We are pointed down on all timeframes — Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour — and yet we are squeezing. These squeezes have been very predominant in the indices as we come down rapidly: we find support, only to squeeze back up and play the highest, most untested levels overhead. The Previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7698.00 aligns perfectly with our tested Daily at 7697.00, and this is ultimately the massive level for us to stay above. Price did exactly that during yesterday’s cash session, then swept into this level in the overnight, and that sweep is what’s propelling us higher — just as the prophecy foretold. We have also spent some time inside last week’s value area, which is starting to squeeze us higher.

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Now we finally have some volatility in the air. We got our pullback, VIX is elevated, and one thing is for sure — we are out of the summertime doldrums and getting some serious ranges, which leaves us with a lot of opportunity. As of this writing, the Sunday open has popped off the lows exactly like I figured it would, bumping right up into our 7697.00 Daily and almost grabbing the 7701.00 4-Hour — and we are already getting a little reaction there. Those of you who collected 10 points on that, congratulations. I don’t trade the overnight session, so this is really something I am looking for in the cash session. As usual, we are going to walk through VIX, SPX, and ES so we can conquer the markets on Monday.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News:

  

• Range: We are out of the summertime doldrums and printing serious ranges again. More range means more opportunity — and more reason to only engage at our levels.

• Value: Two weeks combined into a monster composite of overlapping value. The two-month composite value area low at 7674.00 lines up perfectly with our big Weekly at 7673.00 — below it, things look grim. The previous weekly value area low at 7698.00 is our bull/bear line, lining up with Thursday’s point of control at 7697.00.

• Inefficiencies: The daily profile has singles all the way down to 7634.00, and there is huge excess on the weekly profile at 7547.00. There is a lot of imbalance down there that will more than likely get flushed out.

• Trend: Pointed down on all timeframes. When we are pointed down, my process tells me not to take longs — I am only looking for shorts. That can squeeze first, but the lean is clearly to the downside.
  

🧠 Current Market Context

The Higher-Timeframe Picture: Lost on the Weekly Once Again

I am still very much leaning to the downside. We have lost on the Weekly timeframe once again, and the close below 7673.00 tells me exactly where we are headed: I am looking for our weekly target to be below 7575.00, and I will continue to look for this target until we get it. All last week I was calling for a target, and we came pretty stinking close. It doesn’t have to be in a straight line — I really think it is possible for us to get a little pop, maybe even a squeeze, and play with people’s heads a bit. But ultimately, this is where my process tells me we should end up before it is over.

The higher-timeframe line in the sand has not changed: as long as we are underneath 7803.00, we remain bearish, and that continues to be the theme of the week. I don’t anticipate them getting all the way back up there, but from a higher-timeframe perspective, that is where things either break to the upside or the downside. Closer to home, the previous weekly value area low at 7698.00 is the trigger — getting back above it is what could squeeze us all the way back into the previous week’s point of control at 7749.00 and the huge 7753.50 Daily. Continue below the 7698.00 area and ultimately below the 7674.00 composite value area low, and we take the next stage down. The daily singles down to 7634.00 are one of our ultimate big targets from the daily timeframe — a big inefficiency that needs to get cleaned up, and we are so close to it now that I think it can happen.

I also want to point out the 100-day moving average. I don’t really care about moving averages on their own — the only reason I watch them is because the big players do: hedge funds, CTAs, etc. What I care about is when they line up with one of our levels, and the 100-day lines up perfectly with 7644.00. That confluence, along with SPX playing its Weekly flawlessly, is exactly why the Sunday pop did not surprise me. We are not the only ones watching these massive levels, so a squeeze from here is possible — just know we are still pointing to the downside.

SPX: The 7611.44 Weekly & The 7686 Momentum Shift

SPX is down on the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour timeframes, telling us we can still move lower. However, we have to be very careful: the Weekly at 7611.44 is very significant. Friday’s low played it to the tick and popped us right up into our Daily at 7659.44, which then let us down 35 points into the lows. I’m not saying this Weekly holds the whole market up, but it is significant enough that if they want to hold it, maintaining here at least temporarily is certainly possible. We’ll see where we open.

On the resistance side, the Daily at 7666.45 was a huge pivot not once but twice — the must-hold level that played for well over 100 points a few weeks ago and then again last Tuesday for well over 110 points. It is still very much untested and we will not take it for granted. If price moves back up and plays 7666.45, I am looking to get short — essentially a 7-point stop that could pay well over 30–40 points or more on continuation lower. Above that, we have one more giant area: a Daily/1-Hour level that aligns beautifully with the monster untested Monthly at 7686. This is our big momentum shift pivot. Anything above 7686 (call it 7685 for giggles) and we start to squeeze, potentially all the way back up to 7721 or even higher into our highest, most untested levels at 7744 and 7757. That is a highly reactionary area and I will be looking to short it without a doubt — but once we are above the Monthly, we have upside momentum and need to be very concerned about shorts. The Bears just don’t have the same grip on the downside move they used to.

Below, the 7611.44 Weekly is labeled “bad below” because momentum shifts greatly underneath it — and now that it is very much wiped, a move below could send us into the tested Monthly at 7582, which also has a 4-Hour at 7582. That area could get a reaction, but we would want to see it play and get back above 7611.44 to even consider anything — and more than likely 7611.44 becomes a big stonewall. Our last and final spot is the leg to the all-time high at 7551, both a 4-Hour and a Daily. It looks very attractive, but by then we have moved below all of our massive momentum shift levels, so we would have a bearish lean and need to be very careful playing longs. That said, the best squeezes come in bear markets. Conditional Long: if 7551 plays, take big profits at 7582 (roughly 30 points) and look for runners into 7611.44 for another 30 — a potential 60-point trade with a 30-point first target. Use VIX as your tell. Below 7551, it gets very hairy, very fast: there is nothing left untested until 7464, which is a real possibility. I am expecting lower — no question about it — but that doesn’t mean we can’t squeeze first, and I see no reason we can’t eventually get down to 7551.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 17.50 Bull/Bear Line

As promised, we always start with VIX — and VIX had a fantastic week. The level we have watched for quite some time is 17.50, our true bull/bear line. I have said over and over again that we are inherently bullish on the indices below 17.50 and bearish above it. We stayed above 17.50 for most of the week, which gave us our nice little pullback. We tinkered with the 18.41 spot, and 18.77 ended up being the big breakout pivot that took us right up into our 20.29 Weekly on Thursday and the 20.66 Daily on Friday. With VIX still very much above 17.50 as of this writing, we remain inherently bearish on the indices. Remember — VIX is our tiebreaker.

The Breakout Pivot: 20.29 – 20.66

Looking to the left on the chart, the 20.29/20.66 area continues to get lots of love from the bottom side, and it did it once again. This is a huge momentum pivot, and 20.66 is our big breakout pivot. A push above 20.66 wipes this Daily and the highs, and VIX could go much higher — easily into the big Monthly at the 22.22 area we have been watching since the spring, which played to perfection on the last spike up. It has been a long time since we revisited that area, and I anticipate a massive reaction there. That would be a great spot to look for an inverse long on the indices if VIX does move up into it.

The Pullback Trigger: 18.41 – 18.77

The 18.41 Weekly / 18.44 Daily spot has clearly played very well multiple times and is tested. It has a Daily trigger above it at 18.77. If VIX comes down and holds 18.41 – 18.44, getting back above 18.77 is the confirmation that sends VIX squeezing much higher — a massive headwind for the indices. If we revisit this area, I have to believe VIX eventually moves higher from it.

The Bull/Bear Floor: 17.44 – 17.71

Even lower, our 17.44 / 17.50 / 17.55 Monthly/Weekly/Daily area is tested and comes with its own Daily trigger at 17.71, which played very nicely midweek. If the 17.50 area plays and VIX gets back above 17.71 — back above support and back above a previous day’s low — VIX could squeeze right back into the levels above and much higher. Once VIX comes off these areas they don’t provide much resistance, but they provide support once back above. Keep an eye on both spots for a VIX squeeze higher.

The Relief Scenario: Below 17.50

If the indices catch a bid and VIX moves below 17.50, the whole bearish thesis is off the table. VIX relieves the pressure off the indices and gives us an opportunity to squeeze higher.

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🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are pointed down on all timeframes, which means I am only looking for shorts — support zones this week are profit targets, not buy spots. Our big above/below is the 7697.00 – 7701.00 stack built around the 7698.00 previous weekly value area low, with 7710.00 as the spot where things squeeze. Below 7753.50 I am very, very short; above it I am still not bullish, but I am not aggressively shorting. The higher-timeframe line in the sand is 7803.00, and our weekly target is below 7575.00.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Short Trigger & Bull/Bear Line: 7697.00 – 7701.00

7701.00 (Tested 4-Hour), 7698.00 (Previous Weekly VAL / Bull-Bear Line), 7697.00 (Tested Daily / Thursday’s POC).

• Context: This was right in our trade plan title — the short was 7701.00 through 7697.00, our big above/below spot. The 7698.00 previous weekly value area low is the bull/bear line and lines up with Thursday’s point of control at 7697.00, with four 1-hour opens and closes around 7701.00. The Sunday open bumped right into 7697.00 and almost grabbed 7701.00 — there is a very good chance this plays and rolls.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: I would love to see this area play and get back below the Daily at 7697.00 for a short. Target the 7673.00 – 7674.00 Weekly and two-month composite value area low as the ultimate target, and try to ride runners lower into the Daily below. If we stay below this area, we could come down and fill Friday’s open gap pretty swiftly.

• Warning: Even though this area has provided massive resistance and support, it is now very much tested — watch for a squeeze. If they push above 7701.00, be careful. If we start Monday above this stack, and really truly above 7710.00, we need to watch out.

The Squeeze Pivot: 7710.00

7710.00 (Tested Daily).

• Context: A significant Daily we have watched play over and over again, and it is very tested. This is where things squeeze — we want to see price stay below it.

• Actionable Setup: Below 7710.00, the short thesis stays aggressive. A push above opens the door through the tested Daily at 7729.00 and into the 7745.50 4-Hour. On shorts from above, this is your next profit target after 7729.00.

The 50-Day Alignment: 7729.00 – 7736.00

7736.00 (1-Hour / 50-Day Moving Average), 7729.00 (Tested Daily).

• Context: The 7729.00 Daily was tested. The 7736.00 1-Hour aligns with the 50-day moving average — it is very clear and very clean.

• Actionable Setup: I will more than likely not be taking 7736.00, because I truly believe we could squeeze into something more higher-timeframe — the 4-Hour at 7745.50. Use 7729.00 as the first profit target on shorts from above.

The Prime Short Zone: 7745.50 – 7753.50

7753.50 (Daily / Big Midpoint Pivot), 7749.00 (Previous Week’s POC), 7745.50 (Untested 4-Hour).

• Context: 7745.50 is the big 4-Hour we were waiting for on Thursday that missed us by 3 points — without a doubt still very much untested. The 7753.50 Daily is our big midpoint pivot; it has played so nicely so many times it is ridiculous, it is once again untested, and it aligns perfectly with the previous week’s point of control at 7749.00.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: Look for this area to play and get back below 7745.50 — and back below Tuesday’s high, which is our trigger. If they push into the 7753.50 Daily, you know what to do: get back below 7745.50 and Tuesday’s high as we continue our progression down. Profits into 7729.00, profits into 7710.00, ride runners down.

• Warning: As long as we stay below 7753.50, I am very, very short. Above it, I am still not bullish, but I am not aggressively shorting like I would be below 7753.50 and ultimately below 7710.00. Use caution once we poke above.

The Monthly Value Zone: 7772.00

7772.00 (Untested Weekly), with the monthly VWAP and the previous week’s value area high in the same area.

• Context: A very significant area — this is the monthly value. There is a lot of confluence here and some beautiful touches, with a clean smack and a clean pop off this area before. Don’t ignore it.

• Actionable Setup: Watch for this area to play — it could get a reaction.

The Highest Untested Daily: 7785.00 – 7791.00

7791.00 (Daily), 7785.00 (Daily).

• Context: Our last and highest untested area. This level has played true so many times — we shorted it last Tuesday, once and maybe twice.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: A prime reaction area to look for shorts if we get all the way up here.

The Higher-Timeframe Line in the Sand: 7803.00

7803.00 (Higher-Timeframe Bearish Line).

• Context: As long as we are underneath 7803.00, we remain bearish. This is the big higher-timeframe spot where things either break to the upside or the downside.

• Actionable Setup: I don’t anticipate them getting back up here. Above 7803.00 they could break higher — do I think that happens? No. But anything is possible.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Big Weekly & Two-Month Composite VAL: 7673.00 – 7674.00

7674.00 (Two-Month Composite Value Area Low), 7673.00 (Weekly).

• Context: This is the line where our antennas go up and we get cautious on shorts. The weekly close below 7673.00 is what points us to our weekly target, and it lines up perfectly with the two-month composite value area low. Below this Weekly, things look rough in general — and the market profile confirms it.

• Actionable Setup: The ultimate target on shorts from 7697.00 – 7701.00. Be careful pressing shorts here — there is nothing untested for almost 45 points, so this could squeeze.

• Warning: Below this Weekly and composite value area low, we have already wiped 7644.00, and there is very little left to hold us up.

The 100-Day Alignment & Daily Singles: 7634.00 – 7644.00

7644.00 (Level aligned with the 100-Day Moving Average — already wiped), 7634.00 (End of the Daily Singles).

• Context: 7644.00 is our level lined up with the 100-day moving average that the big players watch, and it has already been wiped. The daily singles run all the way down to 7634.00 — a big inefficiency that needs to get cleaned up.

• Actionable Setup: A profit target, not a long. The singles to 7634.00 are one of our ultimate big targets from the daily timeframe.

The Tested Daily: 7621.00

7621.00 (Tested Daily).

• Context: This Daily was ultimately tested. I have it on watch and it could provide a reaction — just not something I’m interested in buying myself.

• Actionable Setup: Use it as a target only. I will be taking profits into this area — no longs here while we are pointed down on all timeframes.

The Weekly/Monthly Combo: 7596.00 – 7599.00

7599.00 (Big Weekly), 7596.00 (Monthly).

• Context: The big Weekly at 7599.00 goes with the Monthly at 7596.00 — another big weekly area that also shows up on the weekly profile.

• Warning: It is really ugly below this. I’m just going to be frank with you — really ugly.

The Weekly Target: 7575.00

7575.00 (Weekly Target).

• Context: With the weekly close below 7673.00, my process tells me our weekly target is below 7575.00.

• Actionable Setup: A runner target. I will continue to look for it until we get it.

The Weekly Excess: 7547.00

7547.00 (Weekly Profile Excess).

• Context: Huge excess on the weekly profile — a lot of imbalance that will more than likely get flushed out.

• Actionable Setup: As long as we stay below 7710.00, I think we can easily come down and fill that excess at 7547.00.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

We are pointed down on all timeframes, and I am still very much leaning to the downside. My process is simple: when we are pointed down, I am only looking for shorts. The weekly close below 7673.00 puts our target below 7575.00, and I will keep looking for it until we get it — but it doesn’t have to come in a straight line, and a squeeze first would not surprise me one bit. Your make-or-break levels are the 7697.00 – 7701.00 short trigger and bull/bear line, the 7710.00 squeeze pivot, and the 7753.50 midpoint — below it I am very, very short. On SPX, watch the 7611.44 Weekly underneath and the 7686 momentum shift overhead. And keep your eyes on VIX — above 17.50 we stay inherently bearish, and a reclaim of 18.77 or 20.66 only adds fuel. Be patient, let the levels play and prove themselves, and take your edges where the plan tells you to.

These levels should carry us into Monday and even Tuesday, and I’ll keep you dialed in on the intraday setups through the trade plan. Last week was incredible — we had people on the free trial and in the Inner Circle who made enough to pay for the Inner Circle for ten years. If you are a Trade Plan subscriber and you are not in the Inner Circle, hit me up and I’ll get you in on a free trial. It’s a good crew, we have a good time, and we print cash like it’s our job — because it is. I’ll see everybody in the room at 8:30 a.m. Monday and at 5:30 for the post-market breakdown. Enjoy the rest of your Sunday and go touch some grass.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7791.00|D|D
7785.00|D|D
7772.00|WK|W
7753.50|D|D
7745.50|4HR|4H
7736.00|1HR|1H
7729.00|Tested D|TD
7710.00|Tested D|TD
7701.00|Tested 4HR|T4
7698.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7697.00|Tested D|TD
7673.00|WK|W
7621.00|Tested D|TD
7599.00|WK|W
7596.00|MO|M

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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🙏 Thank You, Team Vici! A huge thank you to everyone who showed up for last night’s How to Trade a Trade Plan webinar. It was one of the best ones we have ever done, and I truly appreciate everyone’s participation.

Morning everyone. Today is Friday, October 23rd, and yesterday’s trade plan was absolutely phenomenal. We called the market lean to the downside as price held our 7710.00 level, only to pop up and play the 50-day moving average close to our 7745.50, and then watch the market cascade down. Once again, we smacked the 7713.00 4-Hour for the short, and on the pop back up, we hit the 7724.00 4-Hour for a perfect touch, only to bring it down to new lows on the day. Congratulations to all those who took advantage — many, many subscribers banked serious points as VIX, SPX, and ES all played flawlessly according to the trade plan. It was a glorious day, and in fact, it has been an incredible week, hands down, for trade plan subscribers. We have people hitting all-new personal bests and personal records, so congratulations to all those who have been dedicated, patient, and have stuck to the plan.

As we come into the morning, we are down 19 points at the time of this writing, as the S&P is coiled in a very tight range and getting extremely close to our major target — the sweep underneath Friday’s low and Sunday’s Globex open. We are approaching the 7673.50 Weekly we have been targeting all week long. Price continues to flirt with this level, but it has maintained its stance in the overnight session.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news and no pre-market news this morning. Everything lands after the open: Flash Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 a.m., then Revised Consumer Sentiment and Revised Inflation Expectations at 10:00 a.m. These are relatively large numbers even though they are not Red Tag, so expect some volatility around these times and be prepared for the shake.

• Volume: Relative Volume is slightly elevated at +12%, which indicates we could potentially get our full range of motion today.

• Range: Expected range of 81.75 points. We have only moved 36.25 points this morning, leaving approximately 45.5 points left in today’s range above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma, with dealers positioned to the short side and the gamma flip all the way up at 7850.00 — insinuating they are short this market until almost all-time highs, which is a huge statement in itself. When dealers hedge to the downside, it can cause increased volatility, expanded ranges, and lots of fun. But the market can get a little crazy and whippy, so make sure you size appropriately.

• Trend: Down on all timeframes — Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour. Our process continues to guide us below the 7673.50 Weekly and potentially down into the 100-day moving average around 7644.50.

Also, today is Friday — it is our job to extract money from this market before 12 o’clock and get the heck out of Dodge.

🧠 Current Market Context

Riding the Short Since Wednesday & The Weekly Target in Reach

We are still pointed to the downside, and the backdrop supports it: we have the midterms coming up next month, geopolitical headlines with Iran, and, more importantly, some terrible inflation numbers that have really shaken the market. On top of that, we have AI headlines questioning whether these companies will ever be profitable — a huge problem for a lot of the companies that have invested in these business models and continue to put strain on their overall books. We are down on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour, and we continue to traverse lower. We have no reason to look for longs today, as we keep riding this short down — essentially as we have been since Wednesday.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, October 22nd, and we come off another unreal day in the trade plan — absolute perfection. We called the 7753.50 Daily as our massive midpoint pivot. Price swept the overnight lows, and our actionable plan led subscribers to huge profits as price reclaimed the overnight low and squeezed well over 65 points, propelling us well above the 7800 area during the cash session and leaving our subscribers filled fat with points. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this incredible day — it was an absolutely unbelievable display of trade plan amazingness.

As we come into the morning, we are down 77 points at the time of this writing, as yesterday’s squeeze once again accomplished absolutely nothing. We have seen this many times before. Our process continues to keep us pointed down on all timeframes, so squeezes become extremely violent as buyers keep trying to prop this market up for their benefit. But our process continues to play true in the long run, because our analysis is based on the high timeframe — and once again, the high timeframe proves to be the guiding light.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No major Red Tag news, but we do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 a.m., which is sure to cause a shake. We also have some geopolitical things on the horizon.

• Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at +51%. Given our increased relative volume calculation, we are expecting approximately 40 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Range: Expected range of 87.5 points, and we have already moved 88.5 points — already exceeding our expected range for the day, which is pretty incredible.

• Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, and our gamma flip continues to move higher and higher as dealers keep positioning themselves short on this market. That can give us increased volatility and outsized ranges — exciting, because it leaves us plenty of opportunity. But with increased volatility and ranges also come outsized gains or losses, so size appropriately, especially this morning, as it looks like we could be primed for a move.

• Trend: Down on all timeframes — Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour — which is clearly evident from last night’s move down. We will continue to maintain that composure while monitoring our significant pivots.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Failed 7803.50 Four-Hour Gain & The Cascade Back to the Lows

Once again, we had some huge earnings yesterday, with Meta and some banks reporting after the close. That was clearly positioned for during the cash session on the S&P 500, only to fail in the overnight session and leave us well underneath our significant support. We are still moving down as we originally anticipated from the start of the week, and buyers have failed to gain on the 4-Hour. They had every opportunity to close above 7803.50 yesterday and could not get the job done. That failure to close above this level was a huge momentum shift for us, sending price cascading much lower. Once again, price has failed to gain support and has no choice but to look for new lows in search of buyers.

Read more

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, October 21st, and we come off an incredible day in the trade plan yesterday. We used the 7729.75 Daily to start the day off right with a huge short, only to have price catapult higher in an immense squeeze after the Trump Iran news — a squeeze that took us all the way up to our highest untested Daily at 7791.00. We were able to play it for a precision smack, bringing us all the way back down to our significant Daily at 7753.50 and the major 4-Hour support at 7745.00. This was an incredible day for Trade Plan subscribers and Inner Circle members as we continue to set records day after day. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s trade plan amazingness.

As we come into the morning, we find ourselves in an interesting situation. There is no Red Tag news to speak of, but we are riding high on geopolitical news from Trump. Price is balancing in a very tight range, bumping its head on the massive 7791.00 Daily pivot while remaining steadfast above the significant 7753.50 Daily.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag economic news, but we are riding high on geopolitical news from Trump — and these are market-changing events. We also have a massive earnings day today with a lot of the Mag Seven and the banks reporting, so it is sure to be a volatile day, especially after the close, with serious earnings after hours. I am sure there will be some dealer positioning happening today.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at -4% — essentially on par with average participation.

• Range: Expected range of 82.5 points. We have only moved 36 points this morning, leaving approximately 46.5 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. The gamma flip has moved all the way up to 7875.00, telling us that dealers are still hedging to the downside, which can give us increased ranges and volatility.

• Trend: Down on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. Yesterday’s massive squeeze was a surprise, but it ultimately accomplished nothing whatsoever in terms of our process. Our process is pointing us down, but we could continue to get rotations in both directions. After yesterday’s squeeze, we need to stay cautious in case of more geopolitical headwinds.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Trump Squeeze Rescue & The Six-Day Balance

Yesterday we were dangerously close to losing the massive support at 7729.75, the big daily leg to the all-time high. If price had moved below that, we would have continued our move down for at least another 100 points. Trump’s news saved it and sent us up, and now we are balancing in a very tight range this morning, bumping our head on the massive 7791.00 Daily pivot but remaining steadfast above the significant 7753.50 Daily. That 7753.50 level is keeping everything together this morning. However, VIX is suppressed — so with our process pointed down on all timeframes while our tiebreaker, VIX, is telling us we have some serious suppression, it will be interesting to see what happens today.

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OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, October 20th, and we come off another insane day in the trade plan. We talked about 7770 being our line in the sand, and after our fantastic short from Friday, we got a massive squeeze. On Sunday, price squeezed open and took us directly into the 7770 area, reacted in the overnight session, fell back to our significant Daily, and popped once again — only to smack off our Weekly at 7772.75. This was the massive Weekly we talked about not only in the weekend review, but labeled clearly in the trade plan as the major level to watch for a huge smack, and we got it yesterday in spades. Congratulations to all those who took advantage.

This morning we are still coming down off of that smack, down 20 points at the time of this writing and leading us lower — just like we predicted in the weekend review and in yesterday’s post-market breakdown, where I was extremely vocal about us coming down to at least 7644.50 and potentially lower.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of, and there is no news on the horizon whatsoever. Today’s move will be created simply by price action and the inability to hold support.

• Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at +23%. Using our relative calculation, we could move approximately 59.25 points above or below today’s overnight highs or lows — a very real possibility given the negative gamma environment.

• Range: Expected range of 87.25 points off our GEX levels. We have only moved 39 points so far, leaving approximately 48.25 points left in today’s session — and with relative volume factored in, roughly 59.25 points in the tank.

• Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers have shifted clearly above us, and with the gamma flip level moving all the way up to 7850.00, we will be in negative gamma for quite some time. We are also heavily skewed to the put side — this is the play and the trade, and we can clearly see it inside the options themselves. Remember: the move downs are usually more fierce and swift than the move ups, so be very careful about where you initiate buys.

• Trend: Down on all timeframes. The Weekly flipped down on Friday, and we are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour. Our process is pointing us much lower and has given us no reason to look for support until we at least make new lows.

🧠 Current Market Context

Weekly Progression Down & The 7772.75 Precision Smack

Yesterday we got a beautiful touch at the 7772.75 Weekly, which is currently sending us lower. As we saw on Friday, the Weekly touch at 7803.00 was a monster hit that sent us down well over 130 points. Once again, we got a beautiful precision play off the next Weekly at 7772.75 — in my opinion, this is weekly progression down, and it could really send us soaring to the lows. With that said, we are obviously looking for downside moves today. I have no buys on the map at the time of this writing. Our main target is new lows beneath last Friday’s low, looking for the 7673.50 Weekly as our monster target for the day. Located down there, we also have a significant value area and a massive Put Wall that we need to pay attention to after sweeping those lows.

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Here is what I can tell you for sure: volatility is back. We have had increased ranges, and we are pointed down for the first time in so long on the weekly, the daily, the four-hour, and the one-hour. We are pointed down, baby — at least for now. Do not be surprised if we get a little reactionary pop off Friday’s push down — we could very well see one in the overnight session just so they can smack it again on Monday. Let’s walk through VIX, SPX, and ES.

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A Note on This Week’s Market:

• News: I did not dig into the calendar this weekend, but last week’s inflation numbers on CPI and PPI got people a little spooked, and we have a hawkish Fed that is not afraid to raise rates to get it handled. Add the midterm feud in the geopolitical headlines, and we are coming into a season with a lot of issues in the marketplace. Back in the spring I put out an article — twice — showing roughly a 76-78% chance of a bear market this year tied to the midterms. I am not saying we are going into a bear market. But we have been due for this pullback, and do not be surprised if it is a little steeper than most people anticipate.

  

• Data — History Says: My History Says post fired Friday. 33 times in 30 years, when VIX is up over 10% in October and we are down over a percentage point, there is a 63% chance of moving 0.32% higher the next day. This just happened on October 14th, and we called the pop on the 15th. When VIX closes up over 20%, we have a strong possibility of rallying within the next day or so — to pop back up to something we have tested, just to get short again. This is not a get-long signal. It is a relief-pop warning.
  

• Range: Volatility is back. We are out of summertime and seeing increased ranges again. The ES six-week and five-week composite profiles show months of balance — and now we are pushing out of it.

• Volatility: VIX broke out of its $14-$15 accumulation on Friday, launched above 17.50, and ran through 20.66. As long as VIX holds above 17.44, the indices face a constant headwind.

• Trend: Down on all timeframes — weekly, daily, four-hour, and one-hour. Per the process, we are short-only. Every pop is a spot to look for the smack. Do not put your bias in front of the process.

🧠 Current Market Context

The First Full Loss In A Long Time — And Where We Are Headed

This is a big week, and I want to be clear about why. I recharted everything because we have had a massive move, and this is the first time in a long time that we have lost the sub-leg of our leg to the all-time high. In my opinion, this is ugly — I am talking about finally getting some real rotation. We knew even Friday that we were pointed down on all timeframes, and the process has been nailing it. So the play this week is simple: look for the pops, smack them, and ride the targets down — while respecting that we could get a relief rally first.

On the ES weekly TPO, I went all the way to the monthly profile and found a big spot at 7770 — surprise, surprise. Then I stacked the composites: a six-week profile from 8/2 to 9/20 and a five-week profile from 9/20 to 10/10. Even inside these monster profiles, there is a high-volume node, the five-week POC, and a clean split between buyers and sellers. Last week’s profile intersects right at that high-volume spot. We closed Friday at 7697 — a big stinking deal. Below the previous weekly value area low at 7755, we are very bearish — and that should make sense, since 7753 was our big pivot previously. 7770 is where things start to tip to the upside. I do not want to call it bullish above, but look at that shallow area above it: if we get above the 7779 TPO ledge — call it 7780 — we could start to fill all of that in to build a more efficient, balanced profile. That ledge represents a lot of time spent there, it sits by a huge cluster of buyers, and there is a single 8,000-contract buyer in there. If we push above it, the fill becomes the trade.

On SPX, our first target is under 7620, the 7611 area — but in my opinion we are coming every bit underneath 7500. Not in a straight line, but that is where I think we end up. My first stop is somewhere around 7450, because there is a massive area of back-and-forth there that will offer some support. Ultimately, I think we can come down into the 7000 range, which I have been talking about since June. For resistance, we played the 7803 weekly literally to the tick on Friday — that is what sent us down, and it is why I am still short. Keep an eye on the 7721 weekly and, if they move higher, the 7785. If they push above 7721, we start to get momentum back to the upside and I would not be as bearish. On the daily, we just closed underneath our leg to the all-time high — a loss on the daily and a loss on the weekly — so there is no reason we do not come down and play our original leg inception at 7551. That is my first major target, and we could be there Monday or Tuesday depending on the open; they could gap it down. On the way, watch the big 7582 monthly and the 7611 weekly, which is tested. 7551 is the lowest untested daily — it will probably get a reaction, but I do not think it saves us, and from Friday’s close to there is 110 points. On the one-hour, they held the last untested one-hour at the lows with precision, and the 7666 four-hour — Thursday’s big play — remains big for above/below. Above it, the 7687 four-hour lines up nicely from the left; I have it marked as significant and I am watching it, since it got close to being tested. T1 on SPX is 7611, then the big 7582 monthly.

🚨 VIX Analysis: The 17.44 Headwind Line

VIX did exactly the accumulation phase we spoke about. Since August we were suppressed through the summer months, creeping and grinding to all-time highs, and I kept telling everyone the $14-$15 handle is extremely reactionary and eventually they would buy it up. Then the 17.44 monthly came into effect big time over the past few weeks.

• The Headwind Line: 17.44 (Monthly) — call it 17.50 to keep it easy. As long as VIX is above 17.44, we are inherently bearish on the indices. Underneath 17.50, the indices are very bullish. Above it, it is a constant fight for the indices.

• The Breakout: Friday we got absolute liftoff above 17.50 — we figured it would launch, and it ripped through our 20.66 area and poked a little higher. Even after the pullback, VIX is still holding major support.

• The Pullback Support: 18.41 (Weekly), and more importantly the 17.44 through 17.71 daily/weekly/monthly heavily stacked area. This area will, without a doubt, get a reaction if we come back and touch it — VIX could easily kneel down into it and catapult back up, assuming 18.41 does not play first.

• The Relief Path: If VIX moves below 17.44, the indices get quite a tailwind, and there is one more untested spot: the 16.45 monthly and the 16.08. Those could provide reactions, but by then VIX would already be below the big level and the indices should be cooking to the upside.

• The Next Breakout: 20.29 (Weekly) and 20.66 (Daily). These are the next levels for VIX to break out above.

• The Inverse Long Spot: 24.70 (Untested Monthly) and a big daily with it — a spot we talked about last spring, which is insane how long it has been. I would anticipate a huge reaction from here. If VIX comes into this spot, look for an inverse long on ES — a monster smash that could take VIX back to the $20-21 handle or further.

• The Unknown: Above 24.70, we could come all the way to 30.04. We have not been there in a long time, and honestly, after how long the indices have been climbing, it is time for VIX to get a little pop so we get more volatility.

🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)

We are down on all timeframes, so we are short-only. They will probably squeeze a couple of these levels — be prepared for it — but we do not know which one, so we do our thing. The stack overhead is clean: 7718.50, the 7729.75 daily, the 7745.50 - 7755 cluster that I think is super trouble for the bulls, and the 7768 - 7779 zone where everything shifts. As long as we stay below 7772 — really below 7803 — we are coming down. Above 7803 we are very bullish, and above 7800 we are on the move. On the way down, the targets are the 7673 weekly, then 7644 — my first target on the short and the only untested daily left — then 7625, and ultimately 7507, at least another 200 points lower.

🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups

The Thursday Low 4-Hour: 7718.50

7718.50 (Tested Four-Hour).

• Context: I do not want to count out 7718.50. It is there, it played beautifully at the low on Thursday, and we have a ton of structure from the left. It is the first four-hour above Friday’s close.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: It could just end up getting a reaction here as resistance. Watch for the smack on any relief pop — we do not know which level they squeeze into first.

The Daily That Keeps Playing: 7729.75

7729.75 (Tested Daily — Played Four Times).

• Context: Typically not one of my favorites, but I will not ignore it. How many times could they possibly play this thing? Four times with precision, and one swoop down to the 7718.50 four-hour. It is our leg to the high, so if we backtest it from below, I would look for a reaction.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If we approach from the bottom side, look for the reaction and continuation lower.

The Super-Trouble Zone — 4-Hour, Daily & P.W. VAL: 7745.50 - 7755.00

7755.00 (Previous Weekly Value Area Low), 7753.50 (Daily — Previous Big Leg Down), 7745.50 (Untested Four-Hour — Thursday’s Move To The High), plus the 50-Day Moving Average.

• Context: This is a pretty sweet spot. The 7745.50 four-hour is untested — it is the move to the high on Thursday, and we got five opens and closes on the four-hour right there. Above it, the 7753.50 daily — our previous big leg down that we have talked about a hundred times and that was huge last week — and the previous weekly value area low at 7755, below which I am bearish. The 50-day moving average sits right in here too. This is a big, thick spot.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: I think this area gets mad love, but the bulls are going to have a very hard time getting through 7745.50 to 7753.50 — it is going to be super trouble for them. Fade the reaction and target back down. We want to stay below 7753.50.

THE SHIFT ZONE — Monthly TPO Pivot, Weekly & 4-Hour: 7768.00 - 7779.00

7779.00 (Weekly TPO Ledge), 7776.00 (Four-Hour), 7772.00 (Very Much Untested Weekly), 7770.00 (Big Monthly TPO Pivot), 7768.00 (ETH Daily).

• Context: In my opinion, this is where we shift. We have the big monthly TPO pivot at 7770, the 7772 weekly that is very much untested, the four-hour at 7776, an ETH daily at 7768, and that big weekly TPO ledge at 7779. A ton of confluence — and it just so happens I am short from 7770. This is the upper side of the weekly support spot, which now acts as resistance from below.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: As long as we are below 7772, we are leaning to the downside. This is the prime short zone on a relief rally.

• Warning: If they get above 7772, things start to shift back to the upside — and above 7776, we really shift momentum big time. Above 7779 / 7780, we start to fill in that shallow area of the profile.

The Line That Decides It — Untested 4-Hour & The 7803 Weekly: 7800.00 - 7803.00

7803.00 (Tested Weekly — Friday’s Short, Played To The Tick), 7802.50 (Highest Untested Four-Hour), 7800.00 (Momentum Line).

• Context: 7803 was our big short on Friday — we played the weekly literally to the tick, and that is what sent us down. Right with it is the 7802.50 four-hour, the highest and most untested four-hour on the board. This is our big pivot point.

• Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If we get up here, I do believe this gets a reaction, probably back down to 7776 and into the big support below it.

• Warning: Above 7803, we are very bullish — and once we are above 7800, we are on the move and go back up after testing this area. Keep your stops over this zone.

🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups

The Big Weekly — Support Turning To Resistance: 7673.00

7673.00 (Tested Weekly — Big Weekly Leg Up), plus the big composite value area.

• Context: 7673 was our big weekly leg up. We played it, backtested it, and it sent us to new all-time highs — and here we are basically touching it again, giving us a massive area of support. Look how many times this weekly has been tested from the bottom up. Right with it sits one of the big monster composite value areas — and underneath it, my chart literally says “bring the pain.”

• Actionable Setup: Watch for a reaction here — but once we fall beneath it, guess what it becomes? A massive area of resistance. Once we get underneath it, it is going to be super heavy.

• Warning: Below 7673, we are in super big trouble.

THE FIRST SHORT TARGET — Last Untested Daily: 7625.00 - 7644.00

7644.00 (Untested Daily — First Short Target), 7625.00 (Extended Target).

• Context: This is where I really think we are coming. 7644 is my first target on my short — it is the only untested daily left underneath, and that is it for untested. I do believe we sweep this low. I do not know how they get there — they could back up into the levels above first — but this is where I am gunning.

• Actionable Setup: Take Profits: At the very least, I think we see 7644, if not the 7625 area, probably early next week or sometime this week. Take profits here and then decide the rest. We either hold here — and good luck, given that weekly above — or we keep going.

The Extended Downside — 7507 And Below:

7507.00 (Extended Target), 7635.00 (Yearly VWAP Pinch Level), 7273.00 (200-Day Moving Average).

• Context: If we lose 7644, the next stop could be all the way down to 7507 — I think we come down at least another 200 points. In what fashion, I do not know. And something else I noticed on the yearly VWAP chart: we just tapped the one standard deviation after butting our head on the value area high, and the yearly point of control is pinching right up against it. When a value area edge and the POC get that close, they often go the other direction. If we get sucked in underneath 7635, we will more than likely come straight to the 200-day moving average at 7273, and ultimately into that 7000 pocket I have been talking about.

• Actionable Setup: These are high-timeframe targets for the short, not places to get long. Take profits along the way and let the process guide each step.

📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap

🧠 Final Thoughts

I have given you the low-down: all the high-timeframe resistance and all the high-timeframe support — which is not much. Please keep in mind we are pointed down on all timeframes. We are coming down. Do not put your bias in front of the process. Always trade the process first. The History Says data tells us we will probably get a relief pop — that does not mean get long; it means get ready to short something we have already tested. The overhead ladder is clean: 7718.50, the 7729.75 daily, the 7745.50 - 7755 super-trouble zone, and the 7768 - 7779 shift zone where I am short from 7770. As long as we stay below 7772 — really 7803 — we are coming down. On the way, take profits at the 7673 weekly and then 7644 / 7625, my first target. Below that, 7507 is on the table, and if we get sucked under 7635, the 200-day at 7273 and the 7000 pocket come into play.

Keep VIX front and center. Above 17.44, the indices face a constant headwind. A pullback into the 17.44 - 17.71 stack should get a reaction and catapult VIX back up, and if VIX ever runs into the 24.70 untested monthly, that is the spot to look for the inverse long on ES. Be patient — there will be plenty of trades. We had a ridiculous week last week, and if you did not, do not worry. Vol is picking up, we are getting the moves, and we are going to do it all again.

If there are any Trade Plan subscribers out there who are not in the Inner Circle, hit me up — I will get you in with a little free trial so you can come check it out, get some juice, make some money, and do our thing. Thank you so much for joining me. I will see you tomorrow for the post-market breakdown, and my peeps in the Inner Circle — we conquer the markets mañana. Cheers.

Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!

Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.

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📊 Indicator String

Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:

7803.00|Tested WK|TW
7802.50|4HR|4H
7776.00|4HR|4H
7772.00|WK|W
7768.00|D|D
7755.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7753.50|D|D
7745.50|4HR|4H
7729.75|Tested D|TD
7718.50|Tested 4HR|T4
7673.00|Tested WK|TW
7644.00|D|D

OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS

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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, October 16th, and I am proud to announce that yesterday was one of the most incredible calls we have had in the trade plan yet. Weeks in advance, we called the low on SPX at 7666.90 and the ES pocket at 7735.00 — and wouldn’t you know it, it played to perfection. Price came screaming down on Wednesday, held the lows on Thursday, and propelled us up beautifully throughout Thursday and on into the evening session. On ES, we captured the short off the 7753.50 resistance to take us lower, only to catch the bid and squeeze back above that very same pivot from yesterday’s trade plan title — squeezing us well over 50 points higher and straight into our big major resistance areas. It was a glorious day. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this move.

As we come into the morning, we are still drifting higher, up 10 points at the time of this writing, and we have pushed directly into the massive 7803.00 Weekly. This level is absolutely tested, but it sits in line with our Previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7803.00, which makes it a huge spot. Whether we can continue this push higher, or fail here and come lower to retest, is the question of the day — and this pivot is going to answer it.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We just came through two major volatile days on Wednesday and Thursday, and now the market is digesting that move.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at -5%, which tells us we are pretty much on par with our average participants.

• Range: Expected range of 67 points. We have already moved 34.75 points, leaving us approximately 32.25 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. I have no reason to believe this range will not be met today — it has been a very volatile week with some very serious news the market still needs to digest.

• Gamma: We are now in Positive Gamma territory. The gamma flip level has moved down to 7790.00, sitting directly below us at the time of this writing. Dealers have positioned the pressure to continue to the upside, but this flip will be very important in determining whether dealers need to flip to the short side or continue hedging for the long.

• Trend: Still down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. Yesterday’s move, as significant as it was, has not gained on any significant timeframe, so our process technically points to the downside. However, given the significant area we came off of yesterday, I am looking for rotations in both directions today.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Leg-In Defense & The 7803 Breakout Test

Yesterday we came off a significant area that we have called for some time — the big make-it-or-break-it for us. We knew this massive leg in had to hold if the Bulls were going to continue their progression higher, and they played this area without question. ES maintained the 7718.50 low and reclaimed the 7735.00 Daily that we preached about for weeks, only to pop much higher. However, as significant as that move was, it still has not gained on any significant timeframe, which means we defer to our process. Not gaining on any timeframe tells me we could be in for more downside — but knowing the area we came off of, there is a real chance we squeeze higher if the Bulls want to maintain those lows.

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